I’ll believe it when I see it.

If he was at 60 pitches yesterday we could see him after 1 or 2 more rehab starts which would be 6/29 or 7/4.

89-95 is a pretty decent range to live in.

“But I was pleased that I was throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count.”

I used to be pleased about getting ahead part. Didn’t quite like the “never got a swinging strike after that and got crushed with the next strike” part. Let’s hope that part is eliminated when he comes back.

RAB said there were conflicting reports whether he maintained his velocity or it declined as the game went on.

[5] He may still be building up his endurance.

[5 & 6] What I’ve read, his velocity declined in the later innings but was still at or above what he was before the DL.  That is, 89-91, a few 92’s.  If he can build the arm strength up a tic and be 89-91 in the 100-115 PC range, that’s fine.

If he’s hitting 95 early I think it’s likely that he’ll be capable of it in the late innings once he gets his arm back in shape.

Especially if he starts teh ate.

If he’s throwing 93 mph fairly consistently, and topping out at 95, then clearly he’s recovered from whatever problem he had in ST.  That’s not to say something else won’t go wrong, but that’s always the case.

Anyway, my head’s still spinning from the previous thread’s discussion of Sabathia’s “uninspiring” season.  Dude’s got a 2.94 WHIP in 16 starts where, on average, he’s pitching into the 8th inning.  Not sure what level of performance people were expecting from him this year, but I can’t imagine those numbers are too well short of it.

BTW:  What were the correct answers to the Father’s Day trivia challenge (the one about the Yankee players who had made the greatest numbers of outs, single season and career?  Were the results announced?

[9]  A 2.94 WHIP?  Has he turned into Sidney Ponson?

[9] CC is really good, and this might end up being one of the best seasons of his career, but it just doesn’t seem that way right now. He does get better as the season goes on.

WHIP, FIP, whatever.

[13] On the other hand, it would be extremely impressive to consistnely pitch into the 8th inning with a 2.94 WHIP.

[14] - Not if you’re pitching against teams that graduated from the Jorge Posada School of Baseruining.

[15] Amazing strand rate!

CC is really good, and this might end up being one of the best seasons of his career, but it just doesn’t seem that way right now.

I think we know the problem with perception over fact…

Facts…depends on which ones you put more weight in.  By ERA+ he’s doing a bit worse than the last couple of years (137, 134, 120 this year).  By FIP he’s having his best year as a Yankee.  The IP are still there.  By FanGraphs he’s on pace to meet or exceed his best season as a Yankee.  By BBREf he’s just been very good, (on pace for ~3.5 WAR), rather than excellent.

Using selective endpoints and BBRef gamelogs, he’s +5.2 IP, has a lower ERA (vs. league average?), and better K/BB through his first 16 starts this year, as through the same first 16 last year.  So if he really does improve in the 2nd half, then we’ll be really happy when the season is done.

I am quite confident that CC will go through a period post all-star break wehere he’ll average ~8 innings per start be completely dominant. I don’t know why he doesn’t seem as good as he’s been, but I’m not at all worried that CC isn’t still one of the best pitchers in baseball.

He may still be building up his endurance.

You forgot to include this - #NakedPhilHughesPics

Dude’s got a 2.94 WHIP in 16 starts where, on average, he’s pitching into the 8th inning.  Not sure what level of performance people were expecting from him this year, but I can’t imagine those numbers are too well short of it.

0.00 WHIP and pitching through the 9th inning, on average.

[17]  Equally important, his Hit rate is up and his K rate is down though its mitigated somewhat by a lower BB rate this year.

Dude’s got a 2.94 WHIP in 16 starts where, on average, he’s pitching into the 8th inning.  Not sure what level of performance people were expecting from him this year, but I can’t imagine those numbers are too well short of it.

The 2 or 3 years before signing him he was probably the top pitcher in all of baseball.  Now he is in the 10-15 range on a rate basis.  Now he is still an great pitcher because of his durability and IP totals but he isn’t on the level he was at when they signed him.  There may be serious consideration about if it is in his best interest to opt out at this point.

Is a bright side to recent Gardner/Swisher/whoever leading off success is that Jeter might hit lower in lineup when he returns?

If he can build the arm strength up a tic and be 89-91 in the 100-115 PC range, that’s fine.

Disagree.  Of course, that depends upon what “fine” means.  If “fine” means “could hang in an average ML rotation,” then - yes, it’s fine, given the general level of awflitude of #4 and esp. #5 starters.
But if “fine” means coming anywhere near our recent, seemingly well-founded and statistically supported hopes from him, then I think it isn’t in the least little bit fine.
But I hope we won’t have to settle for that.  It seems reasonable that if he’s sitting 93 and hitting 95 a short way into rehab, then by the time we see him both of those numbers should be the same or even a bit higher, and for longer.

[EDIT] Sorry, you meant, I think, 93 hitting 95 early and 89-91 when he hits 110-115 on his pitch count, yes?  That would make more sense.  Although his effectiveness at that velocity has not been too inspiring.

Is a bright side to recent Gardner/Swisher/whoever leading off success is that Jeter might hit lower in lineup when he returns?

It would be a bright side if it were so.
Is it so?

“Is it so?”

No.

[24] - Not until a week or two after he hits 3,000.  Minimum.

Just got around to reading these on RAB.  I think they are quite appropriate, and a must read:

http://riveraveblues.com/2011/06/saying-the-right-thing-50676/

http://riveraveblues.com/2011/06/saying-the-right-thing-part-2-50753/

[20] League k-rate is down too, though CC is below it instead of above.  I think it’s more important that his K/BB is higher than last year, right around 2009.  Though I wouldn’t complain if he got his K-rate back up over 7 w/o any more walks, for sure.

Should Robertson start?

19)  Still only gets him 15 wins.

[23] Yes, your edit is what I meant.  So the plan/hope is he gets through 5 or 6 - maybe even 7! - innings of 2 runs or less.  If the Yankees are up 4 or 6 runs, you keep him in the game and see if he can get another inning or two.  If yes, hopefully that can be part of him learning how to pitch when he doesn’t have his best stuff.  If the score is close take him out, or if he isn’t pitching well.

Now, for him to truly reach #1/#2 levels, he’ll need to maintain his velocity better after 100 pitches.  And/or become more efficient.  But I’m OK given all that has happned, if he’s a #3 for the remainder of this year, and then uses the off-season to work on a program to strengthen his arm for next year.

A TV voice said CC is easy on his arm, generating velocity via his calves and the rotation of clearing his hips past his elbow (approx.).  Why can’t Hughes do that?

In fact, CC doesn’t even use his arm, generating velocity in his angles and shooting the ball towards the batter with the back of his knees.

They only need Hughes to be a #3 now that Gordon is the #1 and CC is the #2.

Why can’t Hughes do that?

Not enough Captain Crunch stored in his calves and hips?

Should Robertson start?

It seems to me he could, but he probably needs a changeup and he probably would need to cut down on those walks, even if it came at the expense of Ks.  I think his fastball and curveball are both plus MLB pitches, and he has been throwing a cutter but I think he needs something else if he’s going to go through a lineup multiple times.

Then again, since the start of his college career, he’s made a grand total of three starts, all in his first year at Alabama.  In 246 games as a professional, he’s never started a game.

[36] The Phil Coke experiment hasn’t been as disasterous as we thought, and Robertson is most certainly a better pitcher.

If Robertson starts, would Binder still be able to have him warm up on his off-days? That is a deal breaker.

[36] Yeah, I’d be leary of using Robertson as a starter at this point.  He throws a LOT of pitches!  He can do that out of the pen, but IDK if he can do it out of the rotation.  If he learns to get better control and gets to be like 11K/3BB per nine, give it a try, but…not yet.

[37] Yeah, but Coke was a starter in the minors, wasn’t he?

Maybe Robertson dials down the velocity when starting and picks up some command as a consequence.

[40] There may be something to this. He had better control numbers in the minors, but also only threw around 90-91.

Coke is also left handed, which is its own little plus.  Another reliever-to-starter example is of course CJ Wilson.  I’m astounded by his succcess.

I don’t see how Robertson survives his walk rate as a starter.  He’s on thin ice as a reliever (and thankfully, for now, the ice is holding).  I’m not sure throwing 90-91 with better control works for him.  His fastball at ~90 might get hammered.

Robertson can only be a successful starter for another organization.

[43]
For any other organization, or only the Red Sox?

For the Red Sox only if we give him up for free, for any other team we need to trade him for a LOOGY.