The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, February 20, 2012

NYDN: New York Yankees sign Raul Ibanez to 1-year, $1.1 million contract

TAMPA – As expected, the Yankees’ search for a lefthanded designated hitter moved quickly Monday, as Raul Ibanez agreed to a one-year, $1.1 million contract.
Ibanez, 39, must still pass a physical for the deal to become official.
The Yankees had looked at several veteran names on the DH market including Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, but they felt Ibanez was a stronger option in the outfield in the event that one of their regulars lands on the disabled list during the season.
“I’m not saying a quality defender,” Cashman said Sunday. “I’m saying someone that, for an extended period of time, can still provide some kind of defensive component to protect us in the event we have injuries.”

At least Cashman’s not expecting quality defense out of Ibanez.

I am trying to find ways to make me think Ibanez may still have something left in the tank, so I did a quick and dirty study of players who had 400 or more PA in their age 39 and age 40 seasons.  Since last year was Ibanez’s age 39 year, what the players did at age 40 might give us some idea of the feasibility of him having a better year. 

The first thing that surprised me in doing this was how few players had 400 PA seasons at both ages 39 and 40.  Here’s the complete list going back to 1901.

Andres Galarraga
Carl Yastrzemski
Craig Biggio
Darrell Evans
Dave Parker
Dave Winfield
Eddie Murray
Edgar Martinez
George Brett
Graig Nettles
Honus Wagner
Jake Daubert
Jeff Kent
Jimmy Ryan
Joe Morgan
Johnny Cooney
Kenny Lofton
Lave Cross
Luke Appling
Nap Lajoie
Omar Vizquel
Paul Molitor
Pete Rose
Rabbit Maranville
Rafael Palmeiro
Reggie Jackson
Rickey Henderson
Sam Rice
Steve Finley
Wade Boggs
Willie Mays

There’s a total of 31 players here.

The next thing I did was match the PA for the ages 39 and 40 years to force each player to contribute equally to both samples.  To do that I just took the minimum PA of the two seasons and pro-rated the larger sample to that number of PA.  So for example, Steve Finley had 706 PA in his age 39 season and 440 in his age 40 season.  I pro-rated that age 39 season to 440 PA.

So how did the two sets of seasons compare?

Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BR/650
39 15803 13928 1987 3938 691 95 360 1824 1523 1644 110 262 291 115 .283 .352 .424 .776 84
40 15803 13960 1882 3818 688 92 330 1723 1517 1718 84 244 243 101 .274 .343 .407 .750 79

BR: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PA

I should note that I haven’t accounted for park or league changes that may be partially responsible for some of the differences between the two seasons, and I haven’t messed with run environments.

It’s probably not surprising to see a collective decline in the age 40 season, somewhere on the order of about five runs or about a half a win over a full season.  Of the 31 players in this group, 17 declined in terms of BR/650 and 14 improved.  Here’s a case by case look.

Player Year Age Tm Lg PA BA OBP SLG OPS BR/650 39 -> 40 Delta
Willie Mays 1970 39 SFG NL 566 .291 .390 .506 .897 105 Improved 6
Willie Mays 1971 40 SFG NL 537 .271 .425 .482 .907 112
Wade Boggs 1997 39 NYY AL 407 .292 .371 .397 .768 82 Declined -5
Wade Boggs 1998 40 TBD AL 483 .280 .348 .400 .748 77
Steve Finley 2004 39 TOT NL 706 .271 .329 .490 .819 89 Declined -30
Steve Finley 2005 40 LAA AL 440 .222 .270 .374 .645 60
Sam Rice 1929 39 WSH AL 694 .323 .372 .424 .795 87 Improved 9
Sam Rice 1930 40 WSH AL 668 .349 .397 .457 .854 96
Rickey Henderson 1998 39 OAK AL 670 .236 .375 .347 .721 85 Improved 23
Rickey Henderson 1999 40 NYM NL 526 .315 .422 .466 .888 108
Reggie Jackson 1985 39 CAL AL 541 .252 .360 .487 .847 95 Declined -10
Reggie Jackson 1986 40 CAL AL 517 .241 .379 .408 .787 85
Rafael Palmeiro 2004 39 BAL AL 651 .258 .359 .436 .796 87 Declined -2
Rafael Palmeiro 2005 40 BAL AL 422 .266 .339 .447 .786 85
Rabbit Maranville 1931 39 BSN NL 636 .260 .321 .317 .637 61 Declined -13
Rabbit Maranville 1932 40 BSN NL 635 .235 .288 .284 .572 47
Pete Rose 1980 39 PHI NL 735 .282 .350 .354 .704 70 Improved 12
Pete Rose 1981 40 PHI NL 484 .325 .390 .390 .780 82
Paul Molitor 1996 39 MIN AL 728 .341 .390 .468 .858 98 Declined -13
Paul Molitor 1997 40 MIN AL 597 .305 .350 .435 .785 85
Omar Vizquel 2006 39 SFG NL 659 .295 .354 .389 .742 78 Declined -25
Omar Vizquel 2007 40 SFG NL 575 .246 .297 .316 .613 53
Nap Lajoie 1914 39 CLE AL 468 .258 .303 .305 .609 49 Improved 10
Nap Lajoie 1915 40 PHA AL 520 .280 .292 .355 .647 58
Luke Appling 1946 39 CHW AL 659 .309 .381 .378 .759 79 Improved 7
Luke Appling 1947 40 CHW AL 572 .306 .383 .412 .794 86
Lave Cross 1905 39 PHA AL 630 .266 .292 .332 .624 57 Improved 1
Lave Cross 1906 40 WSH AL 538 .263 .294 .322 .616 58
Kenny Lofton 2006 39 LAD NL 522 .301 .356 .403 .759 83 Improved 3
Kenny Lofton 2007 40 TOT AL 559 .296 .363 .414 .777 86
Johnny Cooney 1940 39 BSN NL 404 .318 .351 .373 .724 73 Improved 2
Johnny Cooney 1941 40 BSN NL 478 .319 .351 .385 .736 75
Joe Morgan 1983 39 PHI NL 504 .230 .369 .403 .773 88 Declined -14
Joe Morgan 1984 40 OAK AL 438 .244 .356 .351 .707 74
Jimmy Ryan 1902 39 WSH AL 540 .320 .380 .448 .828 96 Declined -32
Jimmy Ryan 1903 40 WSH AL 474 .249 .283 .373 .656 64
Jeff Kent 2007 39 LAD NL 562 .302 .375 .500 .875 100 Declined -24
Jeff Kent 2008 40 LAD NL 474 .280 .327 .418 .745 76
Jake Daubert 1923 39 CIN NL 556 .292 .342 .398 .740 74 Declined -12
Jake Daubert 1924 40 CIN NL 448 .281 .321 .368 .689 62
Honus Wagner 1913 39 PIT NL 454 .300 .341 .385 .726 74 Declined -13
Honus Wagner 1914 40 PIT NL 616 .252 .312 .317 .629 61
Graig Nettles 1984 39 SDP NL 465 .228 .329 .413 .742 76 Improved 9
Graig Nettles 1985 40 SDP NL 515 .261 .363 .420 .784 85
George Brett 1992 39 KCR AL 637 .285 .330 .397 .727 73 Improved 3
George Brett 1993 40 KCR AL 612 .266 .312 .434 .746 76
Edgar Martinez 2002 39 SEA AL 407 .277 .403 .485 .888 104 Declined -1
Edgar Martinez 2003 40 SEA AL 603 .294 .406 .489 .895 103
Eddie Murray 1995 39 CLE AL 480 .323 .375 .516 .891 104 Declined -27
Eddie Murray 1996 40 TOT AL 637 .260 .327 .417 .743 77
Dave Winfield 1991 39 CAL AL 633 .262 .325 .472 .797 86 Improved 13
Dave Winfield 1992 40 TOR AL 670 .290 .376 .491 .867 99
Dave Parker 1990 39 MIL AL 669 .289 .330 .451 .781 81 Declined -21
Dave Parker 1991 40 TOT AL 541 .239 .288 .365 .653 60
Darrell Evans 1986 39 DET AL 601 .241 .356 .442 .798 88 Improved 14
Darrell Evans 1987 40 DET AL 609 .257 .378 .501 .879 102
Craig Biggio 2005 39 HOU NL 651 .264 .323 .468 .790 89 Declined -15
Craig Biggio 2006 40 HOU NL 607 .246 .303 .422 .725 74
Carl Yastrzemski 1979 39 BOS AL 590 .270 .346 .450 .796 86 Improved 2
Carl Yastrzemski 1980 40 BOS AL 412 .275 .350 .462 .811 88
Andres Galarraga 2000 39 ATL NL 548 .302 .369 .526 .895 102 Declined -19
Andres Galarraga 2001 40 TOT ML 445 .256 .326 .459 .784 84

39->40: Denotes if a player improved or declined in his age 40 season.
Delta: Difference in BR/650 between age 39-40

Lastly, here’s a look at each player sorted from best improvement to worst decline.

Player 39 -> 40 Delta
Rickey Henderson Improved 23
Darrell Evans Improved 14
Dave Winfield Improved 13
Pete Rose Improved 12
Nap Lajoie Improved 10
Sam Rice Improved 9
Graig Nettles Improved 9
Luke Appling Improved 7
Willie Mays Improved 6
George Brett Improved 3
Kenny Lofton Improved 3
Carl Yastrzemski Improved 2
Johnny Cooney Improved 2
Lave Cross Improved 1
Edgar Martinez Declined -1
Rafael Palmeiro Declined -2
Wade Boggs Declined -5
Reggie Jackson Declined -10
Jake Daubert Declined -12
Paul Molitor Declined -13
Honus Wagner Declined -13
Rabbit Maranville Declined -13
Joe Morgan Declined -14
Craig Biggio Declined -15
Andres Galarraga Declined -19
Dave Parker Declined -21
Jeff Kent Declined -24
Omar Vizquel Declined -25
Eddie Murray Declined -27
Steve Finley Declined -30
Jimmy Ryan Declined -32

Basically, Ibanez would have to improve by about as much as Rickey Henderson did between ages 39-40 to be a better than replacement level DH.  I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for that to happen.

But you never know.

--Posted at 1:16 pm by SG / 61 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

I’m going to wait for his *next* Cairo before I declare him a bust.

[1] That’s far to reasonable.

Here’s a better response: Burn him at the stake!

Ah, good point.  Now that he’s a Yankee I can change the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make Ibanez look better.

Now that he’s a Yankee I can change the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make Ibanez look better.

This joke may never get old. That guy was such an asshat. That comment was certainly in the top 5 things on the internet that really got me angry.

Yeah, I was a bit confused by this “study.”  I mean, when I read “I am trying to find ways to make me think Ibanez may still have something left in the tank…” I figured the whole point was going to be to “change the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make Ibanez look better.”

The study shows a modest decline from age 39 to age 40.  Thats not toally discouraging.

What I don’t see is the number of players who had 400+ PAs at age 39 who failed to get 400 PAs at age 40.  You would have to remove the players who retired after their age 39 season by only including those with some minimum number of PAs in the age 40 season.

Players who did not get 400 PA in their age 40 season after getting 400 PA in their age 39 season.  Ignore Ibanez and Chipper Jones since 2011 was their age 39 season. 

Bonds was hurt so ignore him too.

Al Kaline
Babe Ruth
Barry Bonds
Bob Boone
Bob Boyd
Bob Johnson
Bones Ely
Carlton Fisk
Chili Davis
Chipper Jones
Cy Williams
Doc Cramer
Dummy Hoy
Eddie Collins
Frank Thomas
Fred Tenney
Gary Gaetti
Gary Sheffield
Hank Aaron
Jimmy Austin
Jimmy Dykes
Joe Kuhel
Jose Cruz
Ken Griffey
Kid Gleason
Luis Aparicio
Luis Gonzalez
Matt Stairs
Otis Nixon
Ozzie Smith
Patsy Donovan
Paul Waner
Raul Ibanez
Rico Carty
Rod Carew
Ted Williams
Tony Gwynn
Tris Speaker
Willie McCovey
Willie Stargell

Dummy Hoy.

Replacement value or not, doesn’t Ibanez represent about the best available option for the Yankees?  I understand that Russell Branyan may project very slightly better, and Damon or Matsui may project slightly worse, but they all seem roughly comparable, that is, they all seem to be equally “meh.”

I’m surprised how there don’t seem to have been any significantly better bats available to the Yankees to platoon with Jones to take over Montero’s DH role.  I would have thought it would be relatively easy for Cashman to find a LH DH, even at a bargain basement price, but apparently not.

[8]  He’s 42, so it’s all gravy at this point.  If he has has a great year in 2012 and then hangs up the cleats, I’d almost prefer that to seeing him play UNTIL the wheels fall off.

[11] It’s inevitable, yes. That doesn’t mean it’s something to be particularly excited about. It makes me sad, in advance, to think about Mo-less Yankees teams.

I don’t really get cutting Aceves and Rolando Brackman, but then getting Ibanez when Branyan was already signed.

[13] I was pretty surprised about the Brackman cut, but I guess the Yankees just saw no decent chance of him being a MLB regular, and with the crowded AAA starting rotation, they couldn’t afford to giev him time to figure everything back out.

I kinda wish Po had come back.

Yeah, I think Posada would outhit Ibanez vs. RHP.  Can’t blame him for not wanting to play sporadically though.

I’d almost prefer that to seeing him play UNTIL the wheels fall off.

He’s a machine; just put new wheels on.

[14] Brackman had contract options for 2012 and 2013, and had a clause that said the Yankees had to release him if they didn’t exercise an option.  Besides, have you looked at his AAA stats?

[17] He’s been terrible in AAA. I don’t have a problem with them cutting him, but I was a but surprised. Realistically, despite his upside, the guy had one good year and saw his stuff decline from when he was drafted. That paired with the huge number of younger and viable MLB ready arms in AAA/AA forced him out.

If the Yankees didn’t have such wealth of high level pitchers, we might have seen him stick around for another year or two. But he sucked and the Yankees have a large number of pitchers in the upper minors who don’t.

If the Yankees didn’t have such wealth of high level pitchers, we might have seen him stick around for another year or two.

One more maybe, but the only way he was sticking around for two more years was to become an effective major league pitcher.  He’s out of options after this season, even with MLB granting an extra one.

[19] Ah, I was one year off on the options, but the general point still stands. The Yankees had nowhere to put him and he sucked too much for them to try to make room for him.

This might be the best thing Grantland has put together—Sam Fuld breaking down the Yanks-Rays game that put Tampa in the playoffs while Papelbon choked in Baltimore.

[21] This is the best summation of Betances.

The guy standing on the hill for New York was Dellin Betances, making his first career major league start. Betances reminded me a lot of myself — if only I were a foot taller, threw a lot harder, and looked 20 times more intimidating. He was a monster. He seemed like one of those guys who was either going to throw five no-hit innings (he was a starter in the minors but had only worked out of the bullpen for New York) or walk five guys and not get out of the first inning.
After Desmond Jennings popped up to lead off the inning, Betances issued free passes to B.J. Upton and Longo. Maybe Betances just needed to face a lefty: he followed by striking out Matt Joyce and Damon, throwing curveballs that I swear someone dropped from one of the catwalks. Our one-run deficit suddenly seemed a lot larger.

[22] But the single best summation of anyone has to be:

Johnny Damon, who could fit into a crowd of college kids as well as anyone on the team

On the Mo post from above, I had been figuring he would retire after his current contract, and as sad a day as it will be, they are likely in the best position they have ever been to replace him with the emergence of Robertson.

I can’t wait to see Mo play CF for an inning. Ah screw it, they should let him play CF for an entire game and then do a double-switch to get him on the mound to close that game out.

All that said, I hope Mo never retires.

[25] The best way for that to happen is finishing out the regular season with a 5 game cushion.

Personally, I don’t want to see it. Visions of CMW whirling in front of my eyes…[shudders]

[25] Hear effen here.

We are so going to hate Eating Raoul by Memorial Day. I kind of feel for the dude

A saving grace for Ibanez is that he won’t have that many PAs.  He’ll bat near the bottom of the order and play only when the opposing starter is a rightie AND when ARod or Jeter or Teix or some other regular isn’t the DH.  That should cut Ibanez’s PA’s down to around 60% of a regular’s.  If Montero’s hitting is worth 2.5 WAR on the season, replacing 60% of him with Ibanez at replacement level costs the team 1 1/2 wins.  Hopefully, replacing our 6th starter with Pineda will add more than 1.5 wins to the team.

The other saving grace is that if Ibanez is a bust, the Yanks can replace him before the trade deadline.

[25] “All that said, I hope Mo never retires.”

I’ve got it.  Mo throws the last pitch of the year, capping his most dominant post season ever, and baseball comes to an end - permanently.  Maybe after a while people start playing some other game - call it PostMo - where the Pinstripers play the Painted Sox too many times a year.  Mo never retires, Joba becomes a PostMo starter by Commish Wombat’s ukase, and we get to argue about the robots calling what we used to call balls and strikes.

Mo knows the world is ending after this season. It all fits.

[31] The Mayans were actually just predicting the date Mo retires.

and we get to argue about the robots calling what we used to call balls and strikes

0 based arrays vs. 1 based arrays ?

[31] Yoink.

I’d like to see Mo play CF, but if he does, it probably means the Yankees didn’t make the playoffs. Or they’re up 50 runs in the clinching game of the World Series.

[32] That would be SO awesome if after the season he, “wants to take some time to think about his future”, but then chooses that day in December to announce his retirement!!

[34] If he’s going to retire this year, he’ll be the veteran manager at the end of the season. I’d bet he puts himself in CF for 1 inning.

[0] I think if Ibanez were a full-time DH, he’d probably be around RL.  What the Yankees are banking on is with 400PA against (almost) exclusively RHP, he’s going to be more like .5-1 WAR.  W/o knowing specifics, I’d hazard 400PA will have Ibanez’s deal totalling around $2.5M, which is perfectly acceptable for that output.

For me, I’d guess the reasons why they signed Ibanez to a guaranteed deal while having Branyan on an MiLB deal…

1) Spring Training depth.  If there’s an injury in ST - say Teix - where the player will be out a month, it might be nice to have both Ibanez and Branyan on the team.
2) Scouting.  After reviewing video and scouting notes, they see some reason why Ibanez may improve/thrive in DNYS, where it is less likely that Branyan will.
3) Branyan may accept an assignment to the minors.  Given his lack of suitors, Branyan may go to the minors if Ibanez is the opening day DH.  Now they have a LH, major-league bat to come to the majors, or potentially be traded.

[36] No, J’s right.  There’s no way in hell a playoff bound Yankees team is going to allow Mo to play the field in a meaningless game at the end of the year.  As good of athelete as he is, they’re not going to risk an injury to him in that case.  So yeah, out of playoffs.

I just don’t understand why Mo is pretending he didn’t announce his intentions yesterday.  I could save 90 games and they could pay me anything in the world and it wouldn’t change his mind?  That’s not a hint about his intentions.  That is flat out saying it without flat out saying it.

Came in to make a Mo retiring/Mayan apocalypse joke. See it was already made, and far better.

Leaving satisfied.

Chris Carpenter to the Red Sox…

as compensation for Theo.  I got nervous for a second too.

Girardi plans on having Chavez play some 1B.

It sure would be nice if they had signed him so he could.

Can someone please issue a(n) ukase about omakase?

Isn’t Chris Carpenter quite a haul for a GM?  I was thinking a couple marginal prospects tops.

Its this Chris Carpenter
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpech02.shtml
not this one
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpech01.shtml
or this one
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpecr01.shtml

Is there one who spells his name like Liz Lemon’s boyfriend?

[43] That’s CC the 10-games-in-the-majors reliever.

Been meaning to try omakase at my local sushi place - I like what I know though.

Chris “Not That Chris Carpenter” Carpenter

Is it the Chris Carpenter the Yankees drafter back in 2007 or 2008? Or did he blow his shoulder out?

[45] There’s a Betances-like risk/reward in the unknown though.

Reasonable compensation. Carpenter has upside, but he’s not a stud prospect. That sounds about right for a GM.

[49] Midway between Diego Moreno and Micheal Pineda.  Probably closer to Moreno.

I think that’s a fair comparison.

Been meaning to try omakase at my local sushi place - I like what I know though.

The GF and I have thought of doing that as well.  But same thing; occasionally get a piece of something adventurous, but make sure we surround it with staples.

In my younger days, I had the digestive tract of a crocodile. We became regulars at the sushi counter of our favorite japanese place, and became comfortable enough letting them bring what they wanted us to have. From time to time. I have no idea what I had.

My entrails have ukase’d I narrow my choices, since then.

“Is it the Chris Carpenter the Yankees drafter back in 2007 or 2008? Or did he blow his shoulder out?”

Yankees pitching prospect? Probably the elbow.

[54] Smart money says “both”.

But his career may well have been saved by escaping from the system before the damage was done. Probably blocked by Igawa in AAA so they cut him loose.

The only time I can recall getting sick from food is eating at chain “family restaurants.” I’ll try anything once. So far I’ve only found 2 foods I don’t really like: Eggplant due to it’s lack of taste and slimy texture and raw tomatoes because ... I have no fucking clue.

I hate raw tomatoes too.  The taste is ok, but for me it’s the texture.  It’s like a liquified grape.  No thank you.

The only thing I refuse to eat is organs. There’s a reason it’s called offal.

[58] I will admit to being very wary, but a lot of people eat it, so there’s got to be something to it.

We ate at a Singaporean restaurant recently.  Some people at a table next to us were eating shrimp, heads and all.  I won’t even eat the shells.

Eggplants are a bad thing not to like.

Eggplant due to it’s lack of taste and slimy texture

I was eggplant adverse for many years, but have seen the light.  Eggplant can be cooked in so many ways - including fried in olive-oil so that it’s not slimy - and it is also excellent at absorbing spices and other flavor additives. 

I love raw *fresh* tomatoes.  Can be eaten in so many different ways.

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