The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

NYDN: Gerrit Cole to Yankees seems ‘inevitable’ despite Astros’ interest in Pirates pitcher

To this point there is belief the Pirates want three top prospects, which is more than Cashman is willing to trade for two years of control for Cole, who can be a free agent after the 2019 season.

It’s worth remembering the Yankees gave up three top prospects last July in the trade with the A’s for Sonny Gray, a righthander comparable to Cole, but a rival exec explained why Cashman would view this one differently.

First, he noted that two of the three prospects, James Kaprielian and Dustin Fowler, were injured at the time and looking at long rehabs — Kaprielian after Tommy John surgery and Fowler after knee surgery (Jorge Mateo was the third player in the trade).

In addition, the Yankees were getting Gray for three potential runs at a championship, where they’ll have Cole for only two before he hits free agency.

Finally, the Yankees had a greater need at the time, with Jordan Montgomery on an innings-limit and Masahiro Tanaka pitching with such inconsistency during the season.

Cole doesn’t really move the needle much.  I’d rather hang onto the prospects or use them to get a 2B or 3B. 

--Posted at 10:06 am by SG / 88 Comments | - (0)


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Three prospects for just Cole, not Cole and Harrison. No thx. Unless there’s more to Cole thuan the numbers suggest I just don’t see it.

The Yankees are pretty good at every position (or better) other than 2b and 3b (where they traded two pretty good players on pretty good short term deals.)

If they make a trade, it should be for someone who is better than pretty good, otherwise it doesn’t move the needle that much.

Yelich 2018!

Cole is a bit of a mystery, because it’s hard to tell how good he’ll be in 2018.  Based on 2017, he’s so-so.  Based on 2015 he’s an ace. IMHO this uncertainty reduces his value a lot.

[3] But you weigh more recent performance more heavily.  At this point, 2015 is pretty far away.  It shouldn’t be more than about 20% of his projection at most.

This would be a very disappointing departure from some stellar moves by Cashman over the last two years.

Cashman always gets his man.  He’s been in love with Cole for a long time.

He had a crush on headley…but at some point fell out of love. So maybe he learned his lesson not to fall in love with players (or strange women)

I don’t think this article tells us anything. A few people outside the relevant organizations think it might be likely to happen.

Or not.

This, I must say, does remind me of a topic we discussed during the second half of last season:

“I think he got frustrated last year and got too fastball-happy,” the scout said. “He’s got a good slider and at times his change-up is a plus pitch. I would bet the Yankees have analytics telling them they can a lot of improvement out by having Cole throw his secondary stuff more.”

[6] Yeah, that’s the fear, alternative before the recent resurgence there were a number of starters that he had published expressed interest in that, fortunately, he was unable to acquire.

[8] There’s a kind of confidence or arrogance that says,“Get this player.”  OUR coaching can fix something his current coach didn’t know how to fix.  Sometimes that works, sometimes not. 

Sometimes THEIR coaching was BETTER than OURS, and the newly acquired player does worse than he had been doing.

[8, 10]  Despite the bullpen flamethrowers, the Yankees do throw the fewest fastballs in MLB as a team.  It is possible they think they can get more out of Cole by having him work more on his “secondaries.”

That said, I’m not especially psyched about Cole.  Then again, there is NO movement in baseball at all.  It seems clear that FA prices are going to come down; maybe trade prices will too.  But in that case if I’m the Pirates, I hold Cole, look for a rebound and trade him at the deadline.  Acquiring team still gets him for two playoff runs.

[11] But what exactly are the O’s hoping to accomplish by staying so obstinate about Macho ? They’ll get less then than now, and it’s not like they are doing anything to get the benefit from keeping him. It’s pointless.

[12] I’m not sure so they wouldn’t get more at the deadline. It seems counter-intuitive but

1) Who knows what they’ve been seriously offered, I don’t recall many specific trade reports.

2) If a team at the deadline feels they’re a Machado away from a real title shot, you might be more likely to move big time pieces than you are right now.

The Orioles are a lost team right now. They are sort of built to win now on offense. But have no pitching.

I totally get why they didn’t move Machado last winter - a path to the WC was open and a weaker than expected Red Sox team (a thing that did happen) would have given them a path to the AL East, but the Yankees arrived a year or two early and ended that dream. They should have moved Machado by the trading deadline and gotten back a huge haul.

Now they are still trying to get that haul to jump start the rebuild they need to endure. But no one is ready to give up a ton of prospects for one year of a guy who has made it pretty clear that he will test free agency AND wants to move back to SS after spending nearly his entire ML career at 3B (and 2 knee surgeries).

[13] I think you have to look at how much JD Martinez just brought back at the deadline. It’s not a great return.

This is confusing.  Was the story the Astros are interested planted to push the Yankees or was the story that the Yankees are still interested planted to push the Astros?

[10] Exactly.  How did Burnett & Nova do when they went to the Pirates? Better than with the Yankees, even if you factor in the AL-NL difference IIRC. 

What is it with Yankees’ brass and pitchers who have spurned them in the past?

[10, 17]
I’m not sure that it’s a bad idea for NYA to look for players the staff believes it could improve… anymore than this logic suggests that it’s a good idea for the Pirates, but a bad idea for the Yankees.

The Orioles are a bad organization.  As much as it pains me to admit it, it may well be that they have overachieved recently because of Showalter.  But the front office…

[7] How strange we talkin’ here?

Do the Pirates have confidence that Cole will turn it around in 2018?  If they do, shouldn’t they wait until the season begins before trading him to let him demonstrate how much improved he is over 2017?

(20) the kind of woman who after you sleep with tries to extort money…have you forgotten? That’s what google is for. Ha.

22 Is she hot?

[23]  Let me ask you this.  When a guy who looks like Brian Cashman hits on a woman in a bar, what type of woman do you think responds positively?  And what kind of woman teetering on the brink gets pushed over the edge by “I run the Yankees” (rather than “I’m a Yankee”)?  That probably paints the right mental picture.

ZIP Stanton 1022 OPS, Judge 918, Todd 816, Gary 833, Gardy 754, Didi 736, Hixie 755, Gleyber 765, Andujar 739, Bird 813, Clint 763.;

[24] She could just have a rappelling fantasy. Statistically, they’re very common.

[26] SicSemper, you’ve done it again.

[25] That’s fairly 2009-iculous.

I have no doubt Bird will be over .850 .OPS if he can stay on the field. I’ll also take the over on Didi, because I think the system will overweigh his early growing pains, opposed to the fact he’s entering smack into his prime. Wouldn’t be surprised if Didi becomes a .730 .OPS type guy after his 31st or 32nd birthday. He was .796 last season and I’d say between .780 or .800 this year would be my expectation. Also I’ll take the over on Hicks & Judge. Sanchez should do better than .833 but we’ll see if his plate discipline improves. Man… can it be spring yet?

This is an incredibly boring offseason.  Imagine if the Yanks didn’t get Stanton!

As remarked previously, the RAB podcast is shambolic.  However, you’d never pick Ben Lindbergh as a likely host, so maybe they’ll grow into it.

We’ve still got about five weeks for another shoe to drop. My money’s on the shoe. I’ll give you 3-2 AGAINST the shoe.


I never noticed before but he’s about to slap the part where you put your foot in against the podium.  Don’t you want to hit with the heel?  Also, what was the walk-off like—he limps away in one stockinged foot, or stops to awkwardly re-shoe?

Look, there’s a reason Brezhnev was able to orchestrate a coup. It wasn’t because Nikita was looking at reforming the party. It’s because Mother Russia ain’t gonna tolerate some sort of shoe-top slapper ignoring the clear acoustic advantages of the sole like some kinda Petrograd factory-humping mudak.

I kind of assumed it was because Brezhnev had the better hair.

Lenin? No hair. Stalin? Great hair. Khrushchev? No hair. Brezhnev? Great hair. Gorby? No hair. Yeltsin? Great hair.

I think you might be on to something here.

MLBTR talking about Judge and Stanton both being used in LF, to get both in the lineup. Something has to be coming with Gardner/Hicks/Smells/Frazier the Younger.

The same article cites Cashman specifically saying that that WOULDN’T be something that would happen with any frequency. Just that on days when they’re facing a tough lefty, they could DH Sanchez, have Romine catch and have Stanton and Judge both play. He was just suggesting that they have a lot more match-up possibilities now, which is obviously true.

That said, what should worry us about the Cashman quote is how it casually drops in that Romine clearly WILL be the back-up catcher in 2018. Blech.

[39] Yeah but that’s horseshit. Sancho, Judge and Stanto would all be in the lineup anyway.

You’re taking Gardner or Hicks out of the lineup to get Romine’s righty bat. Every lefty on the team has a career OBP against LHP that is 100 points or more higher than Romine.

Cashman isn’t that stupid.

A tough lefty precisely WOULD be the spot where you’d choose to use Romine for a day, as you get to rest Gardner and get Romine in there, since you’re going to have to get Romine a start occasionally no matter what.

Shit, Rene Rivera got almost $3 million from the Angels. I guess the backup catcher market really IS insane right now.

You know who that Rivera signing makes HIGHLY expendable? Carlos Perez. He’s out of options and I doubt they’re going to carry 3 catchers. He’d be an interesting guy to pick up to replace Romine with. Perez is bad, too, but he had actual positive WAR seasons as recently as 2015 and 2016. Romine has NEVER had a positive WAR season. And he’s two years younger than Romine.

Almost all of the contracts signed so far have been slightly higher than the hive mind of baseball writers has expected.  I wonder if the signing delay won’t have as big an effect as people will think and players like Hosmer will still get more than everyone is expecting.

Interesting article about Cole:

Still not cool withe the prices that have been rumored (I also think Scherzer always had better overall stuff).

[25] over on Didi and Bird, under on Gleyber, Clint, and Toddfather

Jeter got even with Cash for getting Stanton, he signed Cito .

Ruocco: Can you imagine pitching to this lineup right now?

CC: No. Absolutely not - and that’s why I wouldn’t have gone to the Blue Jays. If I’m going to be in the East, I’m going to be on the best team. I’m not coming to Yankee Stadium and getting my ass kicked.

“Jon Morosi

Verified account
21m21 minutes ago
Sources: Gerrit Cole trade to #Astros imminent. @MLB”

Photoed by 50

Good on the Astros for continuing to go for it.

Bad for the Yankees. Verlander going to Houston was bad and now this is worse (not worse than Verlander, worse in the sense that Cole is now their #3 starter).

Hopefully Cole has a disappointing 2018.

As we’ve mused, Cole may not move the needle much. Any of Frazier/Adams/Sheffield may be a bit much if you believe that.

This is a concern though. Many think the Yankees are the AL favorites after Stanton, but the Astros are upgrading their staff, they’ve already upgraded their bullpen, and we know their offense is just as good as ours.

Not saying I would give up a bit more to add a good SP and keep him from a pennant rival (you shouldn’t necessarily make moves just because of someone else you need to do what’s best for you), but this hurts the odds for sure.

“MLBTR talking about Judge and Stanton both being used in LF”

Pin, that’s just silly. Can’t see it working. I mean, I know we’re in the age of radical defensive alignments and all…

[52, 53]
Other teams will improve. Cole didn’t make sense for this team now; I agree that when you have a lot of good-to-great, trading your chips for more “good” doesn’t make a lot of sense. They already have Monty.

Not giving up too much for Cole is good for the Yanks in the long run.  Not so much in the short run.

Now the Yanks might be more aggressive going after Darvish.

Did the Astros give up anything like the yanks were being asked? And if so, how did they get enough pieces to make that trade?

Did the Astros give up anything like the yanks were being asked?

Deal is not done yet, but it sounds like the Astros might part with Kyle Tucker, who is a MUCH better outfield prospect than Frazier. The Pirates are trying to get Forrest Whitley, but he was a deal-breaker in the Verlander talks so he certainly isn’t going to be deal for Cole. I dunno if Tucker will even be included, but I bet that the Astros would be willing to move him. Their outfield is kind of stacked already.

And if so, how did they get enough pieces to make that trade?

They sucked for a long time, so they got a lot of high draft picks. Tucker was the 5th overall pick in 2015 and Whitley was the 17th overall pick in 2016.

Not saying I would give up a bit more to add a good SP and keep him from a pennant rival (you shouldn’t necessarily make moves just because of someone else you need to do what’s best for you), but this hurts the odds for sure.

Not to mention that the Red Sox might be adding JD Martinez. It is not like the AL East is going to be easy in and of itself. I’d feel a lot better with this team if they had something as simple as adding Todd Frazier.

By the way, before this trade, the Astros already had a good five-man starting rotation (Verlander/Keuchel/McCullers/Morton/Peacock) with a good SIXTH starter (McHugh), so this shows where the minds of GMs are - they want as many top of the line guys as possible, even if the rotation is nominally already “set.”


No Deal.  False Rumor

Is it weird that I don’t want Cole but I’d be annoyed if the Astros got him?

[37]  ...Putin, no hair.  Who’s got the good hair coming up?

Too bad. I’m not worried about harming Houston, I’m interested in improving NYA. Better to leave the door open to more significant improvement than this. And not waste the chips on effectively closing that door.

Better Monty plus prospects and a chance at something like Darvish than Cole minus prospects, Monty out, and more worthwhile improvement off the table.


Trump Best Hair Ever next.

Speaking of hair:

Ben Gamel Russian PM

NY Post
Gerrit Cole is still available, but the Yankees have cooled on the right-hander.

An industry source told The Post’s George A. King III that the Yankees had shut down talks with the Pirates over Cole. Earlier in the day, there were reports that the Astros had a deal in place for the 27-year-old, but those appear premature.

Fan Rag “Baseball agent Jason Wood is being investigated by the player’s union for allegedly filming numerous clients while they were using his shower, seven sources tell FanRag Sports.

Three sources say that Wood has been fired by CSE, where he was the President of Baseball.”

The source of naked Phil Hughes pix?

Grab Macho and Yu. Push Halcap back until post-Smellsbury era.

Don’t say it cant be done. There is a deal they would all make, including Macho extension. Find that deal. Didn’t anyone see Ocean’s 13 but me ?

Pedal to the metal, damn the torpedos, scorch the sky - COME AND GET ME, COPPERS !

Or, ya know, just sign Todd for a year at $12. Either way.

Not clear at this point whether you’re talking about acquisitions or naked pictures.

More ueseless pretend rumors

19s19 seconds ago
Yu Darvish has reportedly narrowed down his potential landing sports to #Rangers, #Yankees, #Cubs, #Astros and #Twins, per @JeffWilson_FWST.

Landing sports?

He’s narrowed them down to Baseball, Cricket and Soccer.  He’s probably a great bowler.

Naked Yu Darvish
Naked Yu Darvish
Naked Yu Darvish
Naked Yu Darvish
Naked Yu Darvish
Naked Yu Darvish

The thing about Halcap is that under the new CBA the penalties got even more severe than before.  If the CBT is what it is, I’m not against dipping under to reset, provided they go above it in future years.

[72]  Started early today, did we?

[77] - They may go over but you’d have to assume they are going to stay relatively close to it so they can get under it every few years.

Yeah, they’re never BLOWING past it again.

In theory, they could, with inflated but short-term contracts.

True. In theory. wink

In theory, communism works… in theory.

So, Dave Cameron to Padres.  What next, SG to the Mariners?

[78] Put it this way. I just ate a bacon on matzoh sandwich for dinner.

As it never has been, and surely never will be tried in practice…

[84] If he is, he better take us with him.

I don’t mean to the Front Office. I just mean with a place on the M’s website where we can bitch about Ellsbury.



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