The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Friday, August 17, 2012

NYDN: Boston Red Sox visit Yankees with improbable dream to earn AL wild card spot

Boston is teetering on falling out of contention, despite winning in Baltimore Thursday night, 6-3. Players have complained to ownership about manager Bobby Valentine on more than one occasion. Owners have held a clandestine meeting with players, and Valentine wasn’t invited. And subsequent to this, all public sentiment has been supportive of the manager. It’s perplexing and reeks of dysfunction. A Yankees sweep could be the wreck on the hiighway.

The Sox say they still believe they will get hot, even though they’ve lost a lot more than they’ve won since the July 26 secret meetings (there also was one between ownership and Valentine). Their reality is it has to happen soon. The teams that lead for the AL wild cards are on pace to win approximately 87 games; the Sox could get there by winning about two out of every three to finish.

Here’s how I have MLB’s postseason odds looking as of this morning.

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
Yankees 95 67 814 678 87.6% 8.0% 1.4% 97.0%
Rays 87 75 695 623 9.8% 31.6% 21.4% 62.8%
Orioles 82 80 690 765 1.7% 7.7% 11.3% 20.6%
Red Sox 80 82 804 741 0.6% 3.0% 5.7% 9.3%
Blue Jays 75 87 765 780 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
White Sox 90 72 751 699 66.2% 6.8% 8.5% 81.5%
Tigers 87 75 760 722 33.5% 13.8% 14.3% 61.6%
Indians 73 89 712 813 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Royals 71 91 679 749 0.0% - - -
Twins 69 93 727 836 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Rangers 94 68 816 711 86.5% 5.1% 2.8% 94.3%
Angels 84 78 750 691 6.3% 11.5% 18.9% 36.7%
Athletics 84 78 667 657 6.7% 11.9% 14.4% 33.0%
Mariners 76 86 648 674 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9%
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Nationals 98 64 709 601 75.0% 19.8% 5.1% 99.8%
Braves 94 68 747 643 24.8% 49.7% 15.8% 90.3%
Mets 77 85 700 748 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8%
Phillies 75 87 673 692 0.0% - - -
Marlins 71 91 630 712 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Reds 96 66 703 614 78.6% 7.6% 7.6% 93.8%
Cardinals 90 72 774 653 14.6% 14.2% 35.3% 64.1%
Pirates 87 75 676 684 6.5% 6.8% 24.2% 37.5%
Brewers 76 86 730 730 0.0% - 0.5% 0.5%
Cubs 65 97 616 731 0.0% - - -
Astros 55 107 610 800 0.0% - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS%
Giants 87 75 683 652 50.1% 0.7% 3.5% 54.3%
Dodgers 86 76 647 632 36.2% 0.7% 4.3% 41.2%
Diamondbacks 83 79 717 681 13.5% 0.2% 2.8% 16.4%
Padres 70 92 618 695 0.0% - - -
Rockies 65 97 766 871 0.0% - - -

Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

The Yankees can’t eliminate Boston with a sweep this weekend, but they can make it almost impossible for them to win the AL East.  If the Yankees sweep Boston and then go 21-20 over the rest of the season, Boston would have to go 36-7 just to tie them.  If the Yankees went 14-27 they’d end up at the 87 wins that the wild card leaders are on target for and Boston would still have to go 29-14 to tie them.

Here are the pitching matchups for this series.

Friday, August 17
Franklin Morales vs. Phil Hughes

Saturday, August 18
Jon Lester vs. David Phelps

Sunday, August 19
Josh Beckett vs. Hiroki Kuroda

Since seemingly turning the corner with his start on May 6, Phil Hughes has had the occasional bad start.  However, until his last two turns in the rotation he’s been able to rebound in the following game.  On May 28 he gave up 7 runs in 5.1 innings in Anaheim and followed that up with a complete game four-hitter where allowed just one run in Detroit.  He gave up six runs at home against Atlanta on June 28 and followed that up with 8 shutout innings vs. Cleveland.  Since May 6, Hughes hadn’t allowed more than three runs in any two consecutive starts until his last two.

But now that he’s had back-to-back poor starts I have to admit my faith in him is shaken.  Tonight’s game would be a nice way to redeem some of that faith, but I’m not betting on him.

I like the other two match ups a bit better.  I’ll be pretty disappointed if the Yankees don’t take at least two of these three games.

 

--Posted at 8:31 am by SG / 45 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

It’s funny that the Yankees can’t even rest with just winning the division since the top seed in the league is so valuable (as you get to play the winner of the play-in game who burnt their best starter in the play-in game).

Does the team with the best record always play the winner of the WC game, even if there is a division winner with a worse record? This may happen in the NL.

Time to take TWN out back and shoot ‘em.  It’s the humane thing to do, really.

SG, you speak of “faith in Hughes.”  What happened?  Temporary insanity?

SG, you speak of “faith in Hughes.”  What happened?  Temporary insanity?

The problem with being the optimist that I am is that I am quick to run with a few good signs.  So when Hughes put up a string of good starts I assumed he was finally the starter we’d hoped he’d be.

[5] to be fair, Hughes did have a pretty good run of solid starts, although his K rates were trending down. I’m still not sure what to think of him.

[6] Probably that he’s about a league-average pitcher.  I think we have this view of a league-average pitcher - a #3 starter - as a guy who goes out every game, throws between 5-7 IP, lets up 2-4 runs.  Because we think consistency.  Pretty sure such a pitcher is a mythological beast.  Most #3 starters I think will have a roughly equal share of good and bad games, which averages out to…average.  We may just have to accept Hughes as an average starter.  Disappointing given his hype early on.  But perfectly acceptable, and fine as a #4 starter in the playoffs.

[1] Except for this year only the wild card team that makes it through the one-game playoff will get the first two games of the division series at home.

(as you get to play the winner of the play-in game who burnt their best starter in the play-in game).

I don’t think teams that get to the play-in game are going to have a chance to set their rotation since they’ll presumably be playing down to the wire.  So they may not have to chance to use their best starter in that game.  It’s not inconceivable that they’ll go with whomever’s up in the rotation with the entire bullpen backing them and hope for the best.

But perfectly acceptable, and fine as a #4 starter in the playoffs.

With the proviso that the manager actually watches the game and has a reasonably short fuse for pulling him before things get out of hand, yes this is acceptable.

I still get the feeling the Joe’s plan for starters is 6 innings or 6 runs, whatever comes first. It does not please me.

And much as we (yes, even me) would all like to see Joba 07, that’s not going to happen this year. It never was. Still, he’s got 4-5 weeks to pull it together and earn a bullpen spot for the playoffs.

The playoffs scare the hell out of me. A lot rides on Pettitte and CC wrt injuries. Meanwhile, we can delude outselves into thinking Phelps is the shizzle based on a small body of work. If our worst fears come true, we could actually see a 3 man rotation of Kuroda, Garcia, Phelps.

[9] This. They could very well be burning their best starter just to get to the play-in game.

[10] In season, that makes a certain amount of sense (even if it is frustrating), as you can’t blow out your bullpen, but in the playoffs a certain amount of excess workload is expected and you don’t have to worry about your bulpen keeping it together for the long haul.

[5]

And, to be fair, I do that all the time too.  Even I was teetering on the brink of getting excited about Hughes.

I think Mike is basically right: Hughes is roughly average.  Maybe even a touch above.  That’s a little disappointing, but it’s actually pretty useful (especially with a good bullpen available).

And there remains some small possibility that he could improve.  Or his arm could fall off.  He is, after all, a pitcher.  On the Yankees.

I’m still not sure what to think of him.

Seems to me you’ve hit the nail on the head.

Apparently Tex’s wrist is still bothering him.  Lovely.

*takes a hit off the objective pipe*

Hughes will be fine, dudes.

*exhales*

Has there been a set back with Pettitte? I recall hearing something when I was half listening… Why ain’t the Lord healing his foot more quicker?

Hughes is only average if you look just at this season and nothing else.  If you look at his last few years he is a below average pitcher who gets injured a lot but can go on a run for a month or two.  The downside is when he is bad, he is downright unusable.

I’m still not sure what to think of him.

See [19] for assistance.

I still get the feeling the Joe’s plan for starters is 6 innings or 6 runs, whatever comes first. It does not please me.

I think he’ll have a shorter leash in the playoffs.  Sometimes I think we get too rabid about winning THIS game.  Girardi has to manage getting relievers proper rest in the bullpen, plus - especially for younger pitchers - he’s trying to develop them.  Which can include learning how to pitch when you don’t have your best stuff, how to make adjustments in-game, plus getting innings in.  So I guess if Hughes letting up 6 runs in 5 innings (as opposed to 3 runs in 3) helps keep the bullpen fresh and makes Hughes a better pitcher, it’s worth it as long as the Yankees are consistently 5+ games in the division lead. 

In the playoffs, with more days of rest allowing him to use the better bullpen pieces more - and losing a game being a bigger deal - I think he’ll be more likely to pull a starter early.  Just my opinion.

[19] Interesting take…BBRef in 2010 had him at 1.9 WAR, 103 ERA+.  This year so far 1.2 WAR, 95 ERA+.  Last year was a disaster, but after he came back from injury he was…roughly average.  Yes, he’s been injured a lot so far.  But he’s also only 26, and should be entering/in his prime.  And I know you’re one of those guys that believes in “consistency”, which I’m claiming doesn’t really exist.

[18] He had a setback a few weeks ago that he thinks cost him about 10 games.  Last I heard, he’s healing normally and will probably start throwing soon.

Hughes is on my fantasy team. Start him?

Sure is great to see the Red Sox taken down a peg or two dozen. There was a time not long ago when they were the darlings of the baseball media, the small-market underdogs, the “ideal franchise” and even the potential fresh new face of MLB internationally. Heck, they’ve been #2 on FG’s Organization Rankings list since its inception, behind only the Yankees who, it must be said, succeed only because of their payroll.

Now? TWN is on track for 4 straight seasons without a postseason victory and 3 straight with no postseason, period. Plus free agent busts, recurring injuries, long-time team personnel run out of town, player/management/owner strife, media intrigue, etc etc etc.

All of this stuff is just so fucking glorious. Does anyone else troll the boards at OTM after a Red Sox loss, or is it just me?

In other news, Yankees are guinea pigs for testing a new replay system: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/exclusive—mlb-to-test-two-different-advanced-replay-systems-during-games-next-week.html

they were the darlings of the baseball media

I’ve never watched Jersey Shore (a fact of which I’m proud), but I understand it is a gigantic double helix of personal grease fires. So the media fascination with Boston is consistent (which surely exists in this context).

All of this stuff is just so fucking glorious. Does anyone else troll the boards at OTM after a Red Sox loss, or is it just me?

I prefer the manic hysteria that haunts SoSH, personally. If you think we go through mood swings, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

I thought that with the new playoff system, it IS possible to play a team from the same division in the divisional round.  Seems I just read that though I can’t remember where…

I’m really concerned about Mel Hall possibly being injured by suicidal Sox fans jumping from whatever passes for a tall building the Hub.

[26] Is Passan historically robot-averse ? The tone of that struck me as subtle ridicule, which is pretty narrow minded until one actually sees the results.

Tennis has made this work for oh, probably only since before Passan was born.

Also, in case today ends up in a rain delay, here’s a visit with a Great Yankees Fan. I can only presume they were Mets fans. Maybe even the “PUT IT IN THE BOOKS” guy.

[30] Admission: I didn’t read the Passan article.  I read Dave Cameron’s summary of it.

I often use the electronic eye in tennis as an example of something that works, and that people will adjust to.  I don’t think it is *that* old because I seem to remember late-80’s/early-90’s when I would actually watch tennis on TV, that it was fairly new then and that a lot of the older players complained about it.  And then anyway, the chair-judge could overrule the automatic system.  IDK if that’s still true.  But yeah, it’s been like 25+ years (Passan is 32) that the system has been used.

[23] - Consistencey is one thing.  The swings Hughes goes on are another.  He is great and then he is, as Barkley would say, turrible.

But yeah, just looking at 2010, and 2012 he is average, but I see no reason to exclude 2009 (as a starter) and 2011 which would knock him down to below average.

[32] I just checked. There were false starts of other technologies in the 70’s, but the Cyclops system was adopted at Wimbledon for 1980. Passan was born in September 1980, about 2 months after Cyclops went live in a Grand Slam.

“He is great and then he is, as Barkley would say, turrible.”

That’s better than the average of those states, assuming it’s several good starts then one apocalyptic start.

[33] Hughes pretty drastic change in repertoire from 2009 to 2012 makes it even more difficult to figure out who he is. He started using the cutter in 2010 with great success initially, it then became his worst pitch until he scrapped it this year. In some ways Hughes is more similar to his 2009 version than he is to his 2011 version, except that he know has a usable change. He hasn’t been inconsistent just in results, but in stuff and approach, whish is why he’s so difficult to figure out.

Track and Field has been using pressure sensors in blocks to catch false starts a really long time. If you want to talk about slowing down a sporting event watch sprinters get ready for a race: 5 minutes of hyping themselves up, jumping around to stay loose and settling into the block, 10 seconds of racing.

It’s also been using high speed cameras to determine finishes for years as well, it doesn’t take all that long to determine a winner. I’m unsure why baseball can’t just assign a replay umpire.

I’m unsure why baseball can’t just assign a replay umpire.

According to the article, it would cost $30-40 millions in startup costs, plus 15 additional umps.

While that sounds like a lot (it would cover, say 3+ years of roster salary in KC), Melky blew at least that much this week, literally pissing it away.

Maybe HBO could do a Docudrama on the townies.  Is Mickey Rooney too old to play Pedroia?

[40] The Hobbit comes out in November, I think.

I’m not sure how that relates to your comment, but there it is.

[39] It should be nothing, but I’m sure a lot of owners look at that number and think “that’s one million dollars I can’t pocket.”

[40]
Mickey Rooney would have been too old to play Albie Pearson fifty years ago.

Whats really unfortunate is that Dennis Haysbert is too old to play David Ortiz.

I just checked this.

When Mickey Rooney made his acting debut, the single season home run record was less than 60.

Jeff Passan is only 32?!? What the hell?!? I always figured he was, like, 50.

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