If this is true, people will speculate that it has to do with the Clemens steroid investigation.

[1]  I’ve heard this speculation before, but I just don’t see the connection.  Maybe someone could connect the dots for me.

Andy has been talking about retiring since even before the steroids controversy blew up.

What I want to know is, now that AP is officially off the table as a rotation option, does Cashman have any last-minute tricks up his sleeve for the offseason, or does he sit tight and wait for something to develop mid-season?  I’d imagine he’s content, at this point, to wait and see what develops (having already determined there are no deals to be made for a front-line starter).  However, I’m under the impression he/the Yankees really did think Pettitte would be back, so this might actually be a appropriate occasion for a panic move.

Memo to Cash: Do not trade any prospects for a mediocre veteran

Jonah Keri has a suggestion:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/yankees-should-trade-for-zito/

[4] Ditto. 

I think they might try to sign Millstone for under $3m and hang on till the trading deadline, when they deal for a blue chipper.  By blue chipper I do not mean a melancholy Larry Jones.

[5] What is Ziti’s projected WAR?  Aren’t we already throwing enough ziti against the wall?

Jon Paul Moronic has a proposal:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/New-York-Yankees-will-not-really-miss-Andy-Pettitte-that-much-020311

[4] [6] Thirded, emphatically.

Carmona’s ERA+ was 102 last season. It was 79 in 2008 and 67 in 2009. That’s a “coup”?

Anxious fans will be bellowing and bleating for Cash to do something, anything.  I hope those anxious fans do not include Hank, Hal or Randy.

I remember AP picking off our very own Andruw Jones in game 5 of the ‘96 series.

writing from Houston, I can say it was a cold day in Hell when Andy retired.

[5] Dude, I totally had that idea like the day after Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies.

Edit: And it was just as stupid then as it is now.

Generally, contending teams feel confident when they have starting pitchers 6 or 7 deep (between the big club and an MLB ready body or two stashed in AAA). This year there’s CC, the Hughester and - er - AJ. Two Aces and a Joker - the real question will be - Are Jokers wild?

Time for the Killer Bees to have themselves break-out and break-up (to AAA) seasons.

However, the offense is - no one can deny - potent! Seriously, I wonder if the pressure of knowing they’ll have to produce at a very high level all season for the team to get to the playoffs will have a wearing down effect on some of the older guys. Could a full season of unrelenting pressure to perform hasten Jeter’s slide to God knows what and ARod’s hip to who knows what further degeneration.

Even so - we’ll know the sh*t has really hit the fan after the season when CC takes his opt out and moves on to Boston - YIKES!

This sucks for the 2011 team.

At first I thought he was extremely borderline, but after deeply looking at it, I believe Andy is a HOFer.

1) His fangraphs stats say he is a HOF’er. B-R thinks otherwise. Splitting it and he is right at the HOF median.

2) Going by Tango’s rule of thumb, he has Andy as the fourth best pitching of his generation, and 6-8 pitchers from a generation are typically inducted.

3) While not the strongest point, he has been a much better pitcher than Tom Glavine (despite throwing many fewer innings) and pitched in the harder league). Tom Glavine is seen as a HOF lock.

4) Although his postseason stats actually aren’t that good, if you factor them in, that should be enough to put one over the fence on his career.

4.4 fWAR/200, which is real good. His averageWAR is 3.8, which is still really good. 13 of his 16 seasons he posted a WAE type season. In 2 of the 3 seasons he didnt, he was hurt but on his way to another 3+ WAR season.

Hughes is not an ace, unless ace is average.

FWIW, BR has payroll projected to be $197M.

That extra $23M is gonna come in handy when we make the push to regain the playoffs 2 seasons from now.

live with three 5.00 ERA pitchers in your rotation

What makes us think AJ can sustain a 5.0 ?

[15]  By “IS a HoFer,” do you mean “deserves to be inducted,” or “will be inducted”?  I think he’s got a long wait, if he gets in at all.  For most of his career, I don’t think he was regarded as anything like an elite pitcher.  He was a no. 2, whereas Clemens, Pedro, Maddox, the Big
Unit, Roy Halladay, Johan, Schilling were seen as aces.  There’s also the HGH and Clemens associations to contend with.  Therefore, I think the traditionalist-type HoF voter probably doesn’t see him as worthy, which leaves it to the saber-oriented voter to lobby him in a la Blylevin.  But BB barely got in, based on what I perceive (correct me if I’m wrong) a much more compelling sabermetric case than AP can make.

Moose is more deserving of the HOF than Battlegoat.

@18.

Deserves. In real life I don’t think he gets in, especially with the HGH thing.

And yeah, of course Moose was better.

Farewell, BattleCat. I miss thee already.

Zito’s stuff should play well in the AL East and DNYS.

[19] I love Moose. I’ll be sad when it takes him forever to get into the HoF.

Maybe Cash is calling him now.

Been thinking.  I wish Jeter had retired instead.  Yeah, I said that.

This sucks.

Ah well, you were a good Yankee, Andy, I will miss you.

he has been a much better pitcher than Tom Glavine (despite throwing many fewer innings) and pitched in the harder league

All those innings matter.  A lot.

Where do you get “much better”?  From one point of ERA+?  From his slightly higher WHIP?  Must be the extra strikeout and a half per nine innings.

The NL wasn’t always a weak sister, you know.  And Pettitte pitched three years in it when it was.

Pettitte won’t come close to getting elected to the HOF.  He probably needed three more healthy and better than league average seasons.

[9] The idea w/ Carmona is that he was hurt in 2008 and 2009, and last year is more like his floor.  Which may be true.  It *would* be a coup if they got Carmona…for Laird and Curtis.  Romine may be a little too pricey, because there is a greater than small chance that 102 ERA+ *is* Carmona’s ceiling, and he’s more 4th/5th starter than 2nd/3rd.  I’d be perfectly happy if they traded very little to get Carmona now, and used Garcia/Colon as insurance in case someone got hurt or none of the youth pitchers pitch well in ST.  I’d be upset if they traded something of value for Carmona.

Pettitte won’t come close to getting elected to the HOF.

FWIW, for the past couple of years Rob Neyer has been writing that Pettitte WILL get into the HOF, and probably deserves it.  And Pettitte will likely be in his 3rd or 4th year on the ballot when Rob Neyer gets on so…(yes only one voter, but I think other like-minded voters will be coming on at the same time)

I think saying, “Pettitte won’t come close to getting elected” is a lot like saying, “Brett Gardner will never hit major league pitching”.  It’s a statement that is stronger than the facts to back it up.  It very well could be true, but there’s a much greater chance of Pettitte being voted in than your acknowledging.

Does he deserve to be in?  Yeah, I think so.  There are a number of worse pitchers in.  Pettitte doesn’t lower the standards of the Hall at all.  Would it be a travesty if he weren’t in (ala Lou Whitaker not being in)?  No, it wouldn’t be that either.  There are also better pitchers not in, and a small-Hall argument leaves Pettitte out.  Will he get in?  No idea.  10 years ago I would say there was no way Jim Rice would get in, and he’s much less deserving than Pettitte.

[16] Hughes has not yet been an ace.  He may yet be, potentially as soon as next year.

[29] Right now, Hughes is more of a 3rd or 4th starter rather than a 2nd one, he is far away from being an ace.

Last night at the Nomaas chat Wallace said that he won’t trade Joba for Carmona and I couldn’t believe it. I don’t think the Indians would do that trade, but if they could make a package around Joba to get Carmona I would be very happy.

Here is Craig Calcaterra on Pettitte and the HOF:

But I have this sneaking suspicion that he’ll make it eventually.  It won’t be on the first ballot, but I think he’ll hang around a long time and eventually get over the hump.  People like Andy Pettitte. And for good reason.  And he’s got a non-trivial case for induction, even if it’s not up to snuff in my view.  Without hard analysis I think his case is better than Jack Morris’ for example.

[30]“Last night at the Nomaas chat Wallace said that he won’t trade Joba for Carmona and I couldn’t believe it. I don’t think the Indians would do that trade, but if they could make a package around Joba to get Carmona I would be very happy. “

Over the last 3 years Carmona has averaged 150 IP, 83 ERA+, 1.52 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and is going to make $34M over the next 4 years.

Even in his “good” year last year he had a K/9 of 5.3 and a BB/9 of 3.1.

I wouldn’t trade Sergio Mitre for him, much less Joba.  I don’t know if I’d want Carmona for free.

Pick Milwood up for a couple mil.  He’s just as good as Carmona. 

Lats 3 yrs.  Avg. 186 IP, 97 ERA+, 1.475 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9.

[30]  On Hughes, I’m not sure how far away he is.  I mean, first half of the year he was pitching like an Ace, right?  K/BB was well over 3, ERA well under 4, regularly going late in games, etc.  I think too many people are looking at 2nd-half Phil Hughes and saying that is the “real” Hughes.  The real Hughes is *likely* his full-season numbers.  And if you assume he could pitch 25-30 more IP at the same rate if allowed, he’s around a 3-3.5 WAR pitcher.  That’s #2/#3 to me, not #3/#4.  Teams with that as their number 4 pitcher are ones in the conversation of “best staff of the decade”.

Now, can Hughes sustain his first half numbers over a full year?  IDK.  But I don’t think it is impossible that he could - as soon as this coming season - and if he does he’s REALLY close to an Ace.  AT the least he’d be a #1 on most teams.

On Joba for Carmona…straight up?  Yes, I think I’d do that at this point.  A package around?  Hmm.  Would need particulars.  Swapping Joba for Carmona is a challenge trade.  Swapping Joba PLUS other stuff of value for Carmona?

You guys really think Carmona is worth his contract?  I sure wouldn’t give him that deal on the FA market.

I’m with [32].  No way I’d trade Joba for Carmona.  There’s a real chance Joba’s 60 innings are better than whatever Carmona throws this year and Joba provides, dare I say it, starter insurance.

Hell, I think Joba is a better SP than Carmona right now.  And he isn’t owed 4/34.

[32] I think a lot of the context is missing there with Carmona.  He’s still pretty young (27), he’s coming off a bounce back year, and he had some serious mechanical issues that saw him sent all the way down to A ball to retool. That said, his contract is not good. It would have to be a total salary dump, or maybe a nice to have piece. I’d give up Cervelli for Carmona, straight up. If he put up the same year as he did last (totally possible given his age) it’d be a steal.

Now, he outperformed his FIP by like half a run, but Carmona has always been a big groundball guy, so I’m willing to believe that he’s capable of doing that again (ie the regression for his FB based numbers should be tempered a bit.)

Oh, and the Indians are assuredly going nowhere fast - that certainly factors in here.

Maybe some package deal with Sizemore? Barring a miracle, that looks like another $8M down the drain for Cleveland. Sizemore is turning into Eric Chavez.

[30]  On Hughes, I’m not sure how far away he is.

I agree My personal opinion is that we (Yankees fans) haven’t experienced what it’s like for a young pitcher to come into his own for a long time.

A 24 year old who dominates for half a year and then gets pushed around for the other half, resulting in an approximately league average, ~175 IP year is a huge accomplishment.

We’re accustomed to guys at the end of their career hanging on for dear life, or, at best, guys in the middle of their career hoping to make the plateau last a little longer.

Guys like Hughes are exactly the kind of guys who show up and blow away their projections because of their age. Should be fun to watch.

Over the last 3 years Carmona has averaged 150 IP, 83 ERA+, 1.52 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and is going to make $34M over the next 4 years.

Wow, this might be the biggest cherry pick I’ve seen in a long time.

Averaging his ERA+ over the last 3 years sort of glosses over his 2010 performance (102 ERA+ in ~210 IP), which should be the most important for projecting him. It also selectively disregards his 2007 performance (148 ERA+ in 215 IP).

Also, according to BR, he’s not owed 4/$34M, so I’ll have to rescind my earlier comment about what I’d trade for him and his contract being bad. He’s owed $6.1M in 2011, with team options for $7M in 2012, $9M in 2013 and $12M in 2014. He’s also not even eligible for free agency until 2013, so 2012 could be an arb year if you wanted to be. That seems like a *very* team friendly contract. Lots of ways out if he stinks, and a few ways to keep a good, young pitcher around if he gets up to a 115-120 ERA+/200 IP range.

Now, he outperformed his FIP by like half a run, but Carmona has always been a big groundball guy, so I’m willing to believe that he’s capable of doing that again (ie the regression for his FB based numbers should be tempered a bit.)

Fly ball regression is not an issue in FIP since it uses actual HRs allowed.  However, I do think FIP can underrate GB pitchers who induce more GDPs than the average pitcher, so your overall point is probably true.

I wouldn’t take Carmona for free.  Even if you write off his poor seasons as injury-related, what evidence is there that he’s now all of a sudden going to remain healthy?  I sure as hell wouldn’t trade anything useful for him, and I’m pretty sure the Indians have been asking for a lot for him.

This article is over a month old, but it mentions Carmona in a trade rumor with the Cubs.

Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona has been mentioned in trade talks as well. The Cubs and Indians had talks at one time about Carmona. However, the Indians are said to be asking for teams’ top two prospects just to get started in serious discussions. Carmona, 27, had a breakout season in 2007, going 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA. He was 13-14 in 2010 with a 3.77 ERA after dealing with some arm problems in 2008 and 2009.

Would you trade Montero and Banuelos for him?

I wouldn’t take Carmona for free.  Even if you write off his poor seasons as injury-related, what evidence is there that he’s now all of a sudden going to remain healthy?

That certainly seems different than your recent stance of keep getting lots of pitchers b/c the Yankees are going to use them.  I mean, there’s not much difference between Carmona and Garcia or Millwood, right?  The other two have more past success to lean on, but Carmona is significantly younger.  And with the contract that j points out - pretty much the exact opposite of the Soriano deal - the Yankees are very protected against Carmona sucking/hurt, but also in great shape if he proves he can stay healthy and be at least as good as last year.  Now of course, if the rumor in the article you link is true, it’s a non starter.

On Joba for Carmona…if the Yankees are truly, 100%, aren’t going to change their minds, committed to JTTP, then yeas, I’d do Joba for Carmona straight up.  I mean, yes, Joba as a starter in 2011 will probably be better than Carmona as a starter in 2011.  But if Joba won’t start for the Yankees in 2011 (or 2012, or 2013), then his value is only likely to go down in coming years.  And unless he becomes an elite closer, he won’t be more valuable than a #4 starter.  So basically you’re trading a middle-reliever (1 WAR or so a year, 2 WAR if he can pitch the eigth).  If Carmona can be around league-aveage for 175IP, he’ll easily eclipse that.  But Carmona has the upside that he could be more of a #2.

Of course, if there’s a secret plan to start Joba, we should keep him.

Fly ball regression is not an issue in FIP since it uses actual HRs allowed.

I think I was thinking of xFIP. I was thinking along the lines of his HR/FB and FB% regressing his average/league average. I think this is line with what you said about inducing more GDP’s as a skill vice luck.

SSS, but Joba has pitched terribly in the Jake. /Midges

[39]“Wow, this might be the biggest cherry pick I’ve seen in a long time.

Averaging his ERA+ over the last 3 years sort of glosses over his 2010 performance (102 ERA+ in ~210 IP), which should be the most important for projecting him. It also selectively disregards his 2007 performance (148 ERA+ in 215 IP).

Also, according to BR, he’s not owed 4/$34M, so I’ll have to rescind my earlier comment about what I’d trade for him and his contract being bad. He’s owed $6.1M in 2011, with team options for $7M in 2012, $9M in 2013 and $12M in 2014. He’s also not even eligible for free agency until 2013, so 2012 could be an arb year if you wanted to be. That seems like a *very* team friendly contract. Lots of ways out if he stinks, and a few ways to keep a good, young pitcher around if he gets up to a 115-120 ERA+/200 IP range. “

I picked three b/c that’s standard for projections. 2007 is a long time ago, and he’s been hurt since then.

It’s not much more relevent than Joba’s 2007 in whether you would trade one for the other.

I did misread his contract, so he’s a better deal than I thought.  But, he still won’t be cheap if he turns out decent.

I guess I’d trade a non-prospect for him, e.g. Cervelli as mentioned above, but certainly not Joba.

Carmona’s peripherals are terrible.  You just can’t K <6/9 and walk nearly 4/9 and give up a hit per IP and be much good.  His ceiling looks like league average innings eater.

I’d still rather have Millwood for ~1/4 than give up anything of value to pay Carmona $6M.

I guess I might trade Joba for Carmona if I was planning on never having Joba start for the Yankees ever again because it just won’t happen.  Not on my watch.  Not with that thing about him we don’t talk about that makes him a non-starting guy. 

Yeah…put me on the team that’d like to see the Yanks maybe sign Millwood, but really just go for the season with what they have now, see who might work , and go from there.  By midseason, it’ll be clear how the Yanks stack up, how their opposition does, and who’s a seller.

Didn’t say Hughes won’t be an ace, though I’m pessimistic just because the odds are against any pitcher. Just that he’s not one right now, unless you consider half the pitchers in the league to be aces.

Very sad.  AP was my favoritest Yankees of this era.  It was Wiilie Randolph when I was a kid.

LH targets kicked around by some #Yankees people: J. Saunders, S. Kazmir, W. LeBlanc, C. Richard, G. Gonzalez. Just ideas right now. #MLB
about 3 hours ago via web
Retweeted by 9 people
.Ken_Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal

“LH targets kicked around by some #Yankees people: J. Saunders, S. Kazmir, W. LeBlanc, C. Richard, G. Gonzalez.”

Saunders and Kzamir suck.  Do not want.  Zito probably a better bet right now than either of those guys.

Gonzalez is awesome, young and cheap, why would Oakland trade him?  I’d think the asking price would be Montero.

Richard and LeBlanc are also young and cheap, and SD doesn’t have much rotation depth.  Don’t know why they would trade them.  They’re also not that great, so I wouldn’t want to give up too much for them.

[44] Well a couple of things - what do you think of as “decent”?  And what will salary inflation be?  So say the Yanks pick up all his options, and he costs $34M over the next four years.  At $5M per win, that’s 7 wins, or about 1.8 per season.  Is that your definition of decent?  If so, he’s not exactly *cheap*, but he’ll have earned the contract, and we’ll probably be quite happy to have had him.  Of course, if your definition of decent is higher - say 2.5 wins per year, he’ll be a discount.  Or if salary inflation is higher - say it averages $6M per win over those 4 years - he’ll still have excess value.  And of course if both happen he’ll have TONS of excess value.

If the Yankees could trade literally nothing - Kevin Russo - for Carmona, there’s no downside.  Unless you feel Yankees will be stupid and pick up options he doesn’t earn.  If he sucks in 2011, it costs $6M plus buyouts.  If he pitches to about 1WAR they lose maybe a few million and have a decision to make for 2012, which gives them options they didn’t have this year.  If he’s 2 WAR or better, they pick up next year’s option and he was a great steal.

Joba’s worth more than nothing though, yes.  But if they are committed to him being in the mix for the 6th and 7th innings, and nothing more than that, he isn’t worth much more than nothing.

That certainly seems different than your recent stance of keep getting lots of pitchers b/c the Yankees are going to use them.  I mean, there’s not much difference between Carmona and Garcia or Millwood, right?  The other two have more past success to lean on, but Carmona is significantly younger.

There’s a very big difference.  Garcia and Millwood will only cost you money and do not require giving up any talent.

I didn’t realize Carmona’s contract was structured as a bunch of team options, which makes it better than I thought.

So I’ll change my statement that I wouldn’t take him for free.  I would.

Here’s a nice article from TYU on projecting the rotations to start the year in the minors.  The Yankees are STACKED this year.  Very glad I decided to reup my season ticket package w/ the SWB Yankees.  Even when some guys start to get hurt/promoted/traded, there’s a slew of talented guys right behind them.

There’s a very big difference.  Garcia and Millwood will only cost you money and do not require giving up any talent.

Right.  And the only “talent” I would be willing to give up is Joba, and that is predicated on the assumption that he will NEVER be a starting pitcher for the Yankees.  I agree if Cleveland wants anyone even in the top 10 on the Yankees’s prospect list, just hang up the phone.  If they are okay taking a few guys who *may* be okay as a starter for a year or two (Russo, Curtis, etc), then I think you do it.

Of course, after I argued for why he would ge a great pickup, I can see why Cleveland would hold on to him.  They’re making a $6M bet that Carmona can at least replicate last year.  And if he has 2 consecutive years w/ 200+IP, ERA under 4, he’ll be worth a lot more than he is now.

[53] I want to see Joba have a chance to work with Rothschild before they trade him.

[54] I wouldn’t be against that.  But that also assumes that they would be willing to move him back to the rotation at some point (even 2012).  If they’re not…I suppose he would be more valuable in a trade if he pitches 70IP w/ an ERA+ of 150 next season.  And/or would be more likely to be a replacement for Mo if/when Soriano opts out.