If by some miracle the yankees edge out TWN for a playoff berth, I wouldn’t mind seeing the unofficial three man rotation again. I can’t wait to see Pettite back and hope he can keep up the pace he was on.

If that ends up happening they may be able to put the best team that they’ve had all year on the field when it matters the most.

Feels like 2006.

God, that 2006 playoff lineup was just sick. In case you don’t remember, it went something like this:

Jeter-SS
Damon-CF
Abreu-RF
ARod-SS
Giambi-DH
Sheffield-1B
Matsui-LF
Posada-C
Cano-2B

How the hell did they lose?

[3] The pitching (and defense, so run prevention in general) wasn’t great, and they didn’t hit for a few games.

[4] Also don’t know why Sheffield was at 1B. Was Giambi hurt? I can’t remember. Sheffield made a few ‘WTF’ plays at 1B, like dropping a Jeter throw to complete a DP.

Bad pitching and no hitting. Wang pitched well and Mussina started off well, but gave it up. Rain delay in game 2. I think we went half of game 2, all of game 3 and half of game 4 without scoring a run - tough to win that way. Oh, and Kenny Rogers with the pine tar all over this hand.

Oh, and of course, Game 4 was the game where Torre, master of protecting his players and controlling the media circus, batted Rodriguez 8th.

When CC comes back Friday, who’s the odd man out of the rotation? Would be so unfair if it’s Phelps

There are reports that the Cubs are giving away Soriano for 3 million a year. I can’t believe the Yankees did not aquire him already to replace Andruw Jones right now and to play some OF when they let go Swish and Granderson.

The guy is very good at defense (per fangraphs, so take it with a grain of salt) and could be a good fit in DNYS.

When CC comes back Friday, who’s the odd man out of the rotation?

It will probably be Phelps, but not as a punishment.  They’ll probably start using him in high-leverage late innings to see if he can fill that role in the postseason.  With Joba still not likely to be reliable at this point, Phelps can be an important weapon in the postseason if by some miracle the Yankees make it.

I suppose they could demote Nova, but I’d be surprised if they did that. Freddy Garcia’s pitching better than any non-Kuroda starter in the rotation so he doesn’t deserve to lose his job either.

They could also go with a six man rotation, especially if they are not convinced CC’s over his issues.

Regarding the 2006 postseason. It was especially hard to take after the hard fought and won first game where Jeter had a 5-5 game with a long homer to left center for his last at bat. You guys have it right, it went south when they lost the second game in NY and just couldn’t hit a lick and pitchers couldn’t hold games.

[9] I like Phelps to the bullpen idea for this season. But he should have a chance to start next year.

What about Soriano? Don’t you think is a good idea to claim him to replace Andruw Jones?

If you can get Soriano for $3M/year without giving up any prospect of significance I think you do it.  But I can’t see the Cubs not asking for a good prospect back if they’re eating that much salary.

Also don’t know why Sheffield was at 1B.

If memory serves, Giambi’s knees were fairly well shot at that time.  He could still DH b/c he still had the great eye and could turn on a mistake.  But he could handle standing in the field.

I like Phelps to the bullpen idea for this season. But he should have a chance to start next year.

Agreed.  Also I have a feeling as we get into September - if they keep this lead or expand it - Phelps will get another start or two.  Wouldn’t be at all surprised if they skip some starts of any/all of the starters to keep them fresh for playoffs, and Phelps gets them.  Of course also wouldn’t be surprised if they gave the starts to Warren, to get some more info on him/showcase him for an off-season trade.

I do think Phelps has earned being penciled in for a starters spot next year.  Maybe CC/Kuroda(OR Pettitte)/Hughes/Nova/Phelps, with Pineda due back in May to add depth, and potentially still Warren, Hall, Marshall, and Banuelos in AAA for depth.

[11 & 12] Yeah IDK about Soriano.  I don’t know if he’s much better than average on defense; his numbers are good this year but it’s only 1 year, and the last 3 combined are about average.  So he wouldn’t hurt there but might not help.  Also, if you look at his last 4 years, he’s yo-yo’d between below average and 3 WAR.  At 37 you’re betting on him to not have another down year.  I guess like SG mentions if it’s for NOTHING yeah you do it.  But why would they eat that much salary to get nothing back? 

I think Soriano should be like Plan D.

Alfonso Soriano seemed to have put together quite impressive counting numbers.

Kevin Goldstein (B Pro) on Corban Joseph:

As a second baseman who lacks the speed and/or arm strength to play on the left side of the infield, he obviously has no future in the Bronx, but that has no effect on his prospect stock, which is up significantly.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18072

I don’t know if he’s much better than average on defense; his numbers are good this year but it’s only 1 year, and the last 3 combined are about average

By Fangraphs? Am I reading something wrong? Seems above average for 3 years running.

Holy smokes, Soriano is 37?!?!

Maybe CC/Kuroda(OR Pettitte)/Hughes/Nova/Phelps, with Pineda due back in May to add depth, and potentially still Warren, Hall, Marshall, and Banuelos in AAA for depth.

I think they’ll bring back Kuroda. I have no idea what the heck Pettitte is going to want to do after unretiring, only to spend most of the time rehabbing.

Also, the list of depth has now officially become some sort of party line.  Just because they’re the next best options in AAA/AA doesn’t mean they count as depth. We’ve listed Warren, Phelps, Banuelous, Betances, Brackman and Mitchell in no specific order each of the last 3 years, and Phelps has been the only one to pitch a non-trivial amount of innings and actually get people out. Mitchell netted us Ichiro, so I guess that counts, sort of.  Chances are they need the 6 guys you listed, and Garcia, and hope that Pineda comes back. 7 deep to deal with injuries and ineffectiveness seems about right.

I am on board of getting Soriano right now, even if they give up a pitching prospect like Warren. Soriano at 3 million a year could be very helpful to save some money on the OF for the next 2 years, even if he’s not an everyday player he could worth the money as a platoon guy in the OF/DH.

If the choice were between Swisher and Granderson, whom should the Yankees sign to an extension?

[22] I think they should sign the guy with the smaller contract. They are very similar players one you take in to account that Granderson is not a CF and not a base stealer anymore. That said I rather keep Swish who I think could give the Yankees a considerable discount.

[0] - How that hell has this team, with the lineups they have been running out there, won 9 out of their last 12?  Sure the AAAA Blue Jays were 2-1 but the rest was Detroit, Texas and Boston.  Cano missed time as well and Andrew Jones batted cleanup once or twice with McGeheehehee 5.

Soriano at that price is a good deal He is averaging about 7.5 runs on defense over the last 3 years which means he’s probably not bad in the field.  So for this year and 2 more at just over $6M and an insurance policy if Ichiro doesn’t want to come back at a reasonable price when Swisher leaves and or a replacement to Andrew Jones as the 4th OFer?  I do it.  I can’t see the Cubs asking for a huge prospect in return given his age and checkered last few years.

I can’t see the Cubs asking for a huge prospect in return given his age and checkered last few years.

Would they really eat $28M of the $34M Soriano is owed through 2014 while asking for little in return?  He’s been worth about 2.5 wins per year over the last three years, which is worth a lot more than $3M per year.

How would you folks feel about an outfield of Sori, Swish, TSBG and Mel Hall in 2014?

That’s how many outfield arms, presuming that TSBG has none?
I’m not complaining, of course (yet) - we know that his value is concentrated in his legs.

How that hell has this team, with the lineups they have been running out there, won 9 out of their last 12?  Sure the AAAA Blue Jays were 2-1 but the rest was Detroit, Texas and Boston.  Cano missed time as well and Andrew Jones batted cleanup once or twice with McGeheehehee 5.

Cashman is a genius, that’s how.

Of course, fire Cashman directive is still in place.

[26] - Yeah but he is going to be 38 so at that age, are you really going to for his defense over the next two years?  Offensively, he’s one dimensional hitter with a huge hole in his swing that can be exploited by better pitchers.  For $3M per you hope this isn’t a dead cat bounce of a year and don’t rely on him as a full time starter.  Does that sound like a talent that is worthy of good prospects at any price? 

As a free agent, what would he realistically get?  $6M-$8M for one year?  Maybe even less seeing what Damon got after leaving the Yankees.  At $3M per he is a good deal but what use do the Cubs have for him over the next two years when they aren’t going to compete and they can’t even stick him at DH? 

Make a call.  If they do want good talent in return then say no thank you.

Maybe I’m wrong, but the reports I’ve been reading make it sound like they are trying to give him away but can’t.

Can we create a fake website that will help get Mel Hall out of jail?

Fellas on my lunch break I’m heading over to SOSH for a serving of Schadenfreude.  Yum!

[18] Sorry, the 3 years prior to this one, are only a few years above average.  So I’d be a bit skeptical going forward that he’s still an elite defender, especially at 37.  But I suppose at worst, he’d probably be around average in RF defensively.

[19] Scary, isn’t it?

32 We’re all expecting a brief on the subject

[20] Oh yeah, I wouldn’t be at all opposed to bringing back Garcia if he’s willing to be a swing-man.  Or both of Pettitte/Kuroda and let Phelps start in the pen and be first in line if someone went down.  But just a couple of years ago Nova was depth, and he’s a starter for the foreseable future now.  Noesi was last year, and he pitched well in his role, and helped net Pineda (which doesn’t look good NOW but still could be great). Phelps is now looking to be at least a front-runner in a competition next year. 

Maybe getting only one depth-guy in the minors each year to be a long-term piece doesn’t seem like much…but I think that’s the way you build a cheap rotation going forward.  And in the case of Phelps/Garcia being 6th, Pineda is 7th.  No you can’t count on him.  But at the same time if he’s healthy and pitching to his capabilities, you can’t have him blocked, either.  Not for long anyway.

[22] Starting more and more to think Swisher.  If nothing else, he’s a FA after this season.  So locking him up now, you solve next year AND the future.  He’s also potentially better than Granderson now.  In 2014 Granderson would probably cost more, PLUS Yankees would still have a reasonably priced CF (assuming he has arms) in Gardner for a few more years, plus they’re a year closer to having OF help on the way either in corners (Austin) or CF (Slade or Williams).  Potentially a roll of the dice puts Austin as a starting corner OF in 2014 even.

Maybe I’m wrong, but the reports I’ve been reading make it sound like they are trying to give him away but can’t.

I think part of the problem is him having veto power.  He’s been traded to the Giants at least twice but rejected it both times.

I wonder if he’d reject a trade to the Yankees if he wasn’t guaranteed full-time PT?

[36] Agreed. I just don’t think Granderson is going to age well to justify the bigger commitment in dollars and years.  Plus as you said, the Yankees are still getting another year of Granderson anyway.

Put me in the Swisher over Granderson camp…I think.

Maybe getting only one depth-guy in the minors each year to be a long-term piece doesn’t seem like much…but I think that’s the way you build a cheap rotation going forward.

I think you’re misunderstanding me. I’m saying that our ‘list of depth’ is just us naming the next 5 guys in AAA/AA, without necessarily considering how well equipped they are to contribute. The list we’ve got next year (your list was Warren, Hall, Marshall, and Banuelos) is uninspiring. Nova and Phelps are the only ones that have actually ended up contributing a non-trivial amount of innings as backup starting rotation options in the last 3 years. Noesi started 2 games - one good and one terrible. 2 in 3 years is certainly a good way to start building a cheap rotation, but the issue is whether or not we have enough guys for next year, not whether or not what we’ve done in the past has moved us to a better rotation solution. If they’re not going to go 7 deep before they are relying on guys on your list, I think that’s a mistake.

[22] Well the issue is that you can’t decide on which one at the same time, right? If you opt for Granderson, you could let Swisher go this offseason and find out that Granderson isn’t what you want come 2014. If you go with Swisher and it ends up being more expensive than you planned, it may force you into a decision you didn’t want to make with Granderson.

That said, I’d take Swisher. He’s been amazingly consistent, but even more than that, you’re not paying the premium for elite level production that Granderson is sure to demand. Even though you’d end up with less WAR, I’m betting that Swisher’s eventual salary in dollars/WAR will be less than Granderson dollars/WAR. Take Swisher and try to make up that difference elsewhere with an upgrade.

Count me in as not wanting to commit to either Granderson or Swisher long term.  I’ll give Cano an extension when the time comes and build an OF with the leftover money at the time.  Swisher isn’t exactly young either and his offense through his decline years isn’t anything I’d want to commit to long term.

By the way, Jeter called Ichiro “Ichey” on the Waldling postgame.

I’m completely agnostic on Swisher/Granderson.  I guess if forced to choose, I would do like Kelly Taylor and choose me.

Pedro “Jose” Feliciano will be available for a September call up to earn his $8.5 m contract in one month.

[40] Very possibly misunderstanding.  I’m not *just* listing the next 5 guys.  But guys I feel have some upside as 5th starter or better (I think Hall is a bit underrated, personally).  Or put another way…you can’t afford to build up much depth for the top-3 in the rotation through trades/FA, especially if you have a budget.  Not many FA who can be top-3 starters will want to come to Yankees to be long-men, and you aren’t going to get established #3 starters or better in trade w/o paying a premium.  Getting Andy Pettitte to be a 6th starter is a rarity.

So filling in the back end, I think Banuelos and Pineda are good for 7th and 8th on the depth chart (order reversible).  I also think Warren would be a better 9th than most playoff contenders have, and Marshall/Hall better 10th/11th.

Pedro “Jose” Feliciano will be available for a September call up to earn his $8.5 m contract in one month.

Am I the only one who would like to see a post that details how well/much Feliciano would have to pitch to earn what we paid him?

[45] Yeah, I agree with those guys being down that far. But it sounded like you wanted one of Kuroda/Pettite, and you didn’t mention Garcia. That makes that the rotation Sabathia, Kuroda/Pettite, Hughes, Nova, Phelps and then the AAA list, whereas I was advocating for signing Pettitte and Garcia (who you didn’t mention.) I think we need to be that deep.

EDIT: Signing Pettitte and Garcia in addition to Kuroda.

[46] - About 40 innings at Aroldis Chapman’s rates.

[48] Well I was actually thinking that if he pitched in the playoffs, it might be somewhat feasible, depending on how liberal you get with $/WAR. Especially if you play with LI.

[42] For Swisher what do you consider long-term?  I think 4/60 maybe something they could sign him for, and is probably fair.  That covers Swisher’s age 32-35 seasons.  I think he’ll remain an above-average RF for the majority of that time.

This might be one of the funniest picture I’ve ever seen:

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/5zSuisvHHpWv6H_sVJiKcNw87APr3lqYVGWrWD64Hum-BEb2hGMSR6kRg6IJd6a7o_WK5eYjsNarZTW-cUbSk0rOilNsIA_n18OYBd5q0M1bI-dzGw

[47] Yeah mostly thinking out loud.  I guess I’d want 2 of the 3 of Garcia, Pettitte, Kuroda (Garcia only if they can’t get the other two).  So ideally rotation is CC/Kuroda/Pettitte/Hughes/Nova, with Phelps as the long-man.  Not a big fan of Garcia also b/c then Phelps is either in AAA or a forgotten man.  That may help them a little more next year, but I think it hurts them in the long run.  After that I think Pineda is fine for a 7th man.  No, you can’t count on him, but they’ll also have some more info on him by the time FA is in full swing.

I guess mostly I’m invested in the idea of Phelps as a 6th man right now, because I think he’s done enough to have earned a longer look.  And I don’t think Garcia would be a 7th man, so…

[50] - I guess it depends on what you expect out of Swisher.  3 or 4 year projections would be nice but I kind of imagine him to be a 3.0 - 3.5 WAR player for next year.  Going forward he would be getting slightly worse every year.  Probably by close to half a win at least (I don’t know if he is good enough to qualify for the .7 per year average drop). 

If that is the case then I think $15 per is too steep for him on the front end and horrible on the back end but that is likely the kind of contract you can expect for him to get.  I might be a pass in that case.

I just think by the time he is 35 he will be a very marginal player.

[49] I believe Yankees have a $4M option on him for 2013.  If he looks good in Sept/Oct pick it up?  Probably still better than Eppley, I don’t think anyone would complain *too* much if they signed a lefty specialist to a 1/4 contract, and it’s the last year they can overspend on him so…that also may allow them to recoup some of the lost cost.

[53] Yeah there’s definitely some pretty big bars.  I’m not sure if his skillset would age better or worse.  On the high-end, say his 4 years would be maybe..

3.2 (tail end of prime, little-to-no loss)
2.8
2.3
1.6
==
9.9 WAR.  Round to 10 maybe.

So 10 WAR, at $5M per year is 50M.  So yeah, a bit of an overpay…if he’s nearer to his high end.  I guess ideally I’d like him at something like 3/42.  Seems it would be a fair contract and the last year you’d get him he would still be average or a bit better.  But I think they should be willing to go 4/60.  Unless they can find some way to get Upton or something.

Yeah, I don’t think Swisher is worth $15M per year for four years.  He’s probably a 2.5-3.0 WAR player right now.  So figure that for four years you’re getting something like 8-9 wins.  A fair contract is more like 4 years, $40M.

I don’t think I’d bring back either Granderson or Swisher on long-term deals.  I’d offer Swisher a qualifying contract in case you could get him back for one year, but I don’t think he’s a guy you pay big bucks to in his mid-30s.  Especially if he has another garbage postseason. 

Granderson’s strikeouts and plummeting ability to hit for average make me less sanguine about having him signed past next year too.  My guess is they keep Cano and that’s it.

[56] I don’t think Swisher having a garbage post-season should matter.  IDK I guess I’d want Swisher on a fair 3-4 year contract.  Maybe I’m overestimating what he’d get on the market.  Definitely don’t want to give him a 5+ year contract, or give him anything that prohibits you from signing other players.  But they need a RF for next year, and then after that right now Gardner is the only OF, and he’s going to be getting expensive soon too.  I think 2015 is realistic for the next crop of OF to be ready, unless some of the guys in AA/AAA make leaps (the Almonte’s, Mesa, Segedin). 

So Swisher on a 3 year deal is probably best…full OF for next year, let Granderson go in 2014 and find replacement (hopefully one of the guys I mentioned above), 2015 transition to the youth.  4th year maybe team option at a reasonable rate, so if Swisher is still productive and/or the youth isn’t ready, they can keep him.

Of course, now Pineda get pulled over for DUI this morning…maybe he’s down to the 12 spot on the depth chart…

[58] - Christ.

[57] - Yeah a three year deal I would consider if the money is right.  $36/3 assuming $5M per win.  I guess I’m just not optimistic that gets it done.

I don’t think Swisher having a garbage post-season should matter.

Logically, I understand that.  Maybe it’s a sample size fluke that is not predictive. But if he doesn’t improve on his .160/.257/.330 postseason line as a Yankee I don’t see any way they bring him back. 

I also wouldn’t discount the possibility that Swisher’s mentality is not conducive to playing well in the postseason, even if it’s remote.

[60] - I can see guys like Soriano that have huge holes in his swing that are worse in the post-season.  Better pitchers that can take advantage of it and more guys out the in the bullpen who are rested so you can play match-ups more often.  I haven’t noticed anything that glaring with Swisher though but that doesn’t me it isn’t there.  After a certain amount of time you have to think it is something even if you can’t figure it out.  Then again, A-Rod had 2009 (and before) so yeah, I don’t know where to stand on his post-season numbers.

[59] I think similar players recently signed for around 3/39.  IDK I guess I’m more optimistic on Swisher than some.  He’s a 3-true outcomes guy.  Those guys look REALLY bad when they aren’t hitting, because they may still get the walks, but lots of K’s, and nothing else to show for it.  But every year he’s around the same results in the end so…

[60] I guess it depends on how much say Cashman has, vs. how much Levine/Hal/Hank have.  The former I don’t think puts much stock into that stuff, and if it causes other GM’s to lower how they value Swisher, he’ll happily sign Swish to a below-market deal.  The latter trio…ouch.  I do agree that it is possible he has a mental block.  I doubt it highly b/c if anything Swisher certainly seems to be about as relaxed of a player as there can be.  Maybe he just needs to smoke the objective pipe more often…

Question: if Yankees extend Swisher a qualifying offer, and he accepts, can they still negotiate a long-term (3-4 years) deal that covers 2013?

What would Yanks have done for a closer had they not signed the “other” Soriano, he of the particularly bad contract? What place in the standings would Yanks hold? Just for conversation.

Swisher looks attractive right now because he’s had a very good week and his overall numbers are rounding near his norm.  I guess his coming back will depend on the interest of other suitors, but giving him more than 3 years probably will make little sense.  His lack of speed in the OF now bodes poorly for how he will fare out there two to three years from now.  If OTOH he wants to stay, then he will take a three year $40 year contract.

This Corbin Joseph guy has shown a lot of power this year. Is he a corner outfield possiblity. Not great at 2b, but he seems to be maturing as a hitter and he’s doing it at AAA.

Rumor is Soriano will be a Yankee again in a trade for A-rod and each team will assume the others contract. A do-over of sorts

[62] - They can.  You can always sign a player to a new contract or an extension, but why would they want to?  I think they would want to go year to year if they could.  I don’t think Swisher is likely to put up a monster “Damn I wish we signed him when we had the chance” year and is much more likely to put up a “Well I’m glad we don’t have him locked up long term” year.

I concur with keeping Swisher over Granderson.  If you have to pick between 2 roughly equivalent FAs, always choose the one that reaches FA first.  That way, you get the overlap year.

[54] Was this directed at my Chris Sabo picture? If so, I’m against picking up Sabo’s option. He’s gotta be 50 years old by now.

[63] One of the knocks on Joseph is his arm.  So probably not much of a corner OF; I also don’t think he necessarily has the speed for LF in Yankee Stadium.  However, I haven’t seen him play myself, and a discussion with Fabian and I a while ago we discussed not being 100% trusting of minor league evaluations of defense.  All that said, he could be a candidate to fill in a lot of places as a starter after 2013 (next year I think he’d be more a bench player).

[65] Well you can sign to an extension, but I’m wondering if this is like
offering arbitration but before the hearing. 31/32 year old players of Swisher’s caliber you don’t go year-to-year on.  I’d be surprised if he took the arbitration offer honestly.  But I think they should offer it, and try to sign him to a reasonable long-term contract.

What would Yanks have done for a closer had they not signed the “other” Soriano, he of the particularly bad contract? What place in the standings would Yanks hold?

They’d have used David Robertson and would be in first place.

Upton for Williams and Joseph +?

[70] In a heartbeat if you’re the Yankees. Charge Yankees for the phone call if you’re the D-backs.

Re: Swisher vs. Granderson… I’d be cautious not to overreact to what might just be a slump for Granderson.  Then again, you can make the same argument about his period of awesomeness. 

[58] Sigh.  Clearly he’s taking his rehab seriously.

[71] - What if they resign Melky and find some homeless guy with the initials IPK?

Upton for Melky, IPK, Williams, and Joseph +?

[73] How could you pass up a deal that includes both Melky and IPK?

Nice robust discussion for a Monday non-game thread.

Also, Mel, please post the SoSH update.

(69) SG- based on the fact that he’s been injured (and unavailable) and spit the bit (in a small sample), I am a bit surprised by your confident post.

Is this based on your standing firm on previous comments, or can you elaborate as to why Robertson would have the team in first?  It seems like since the injury that he has had trouble in his 8th inning role from time to time. I am well aware from the start on how you feel about ownership meddling with the GM, so in all seriousness, is it possible that Hank and company had a rare better idea? No disrespect to you. Just wondering.

[77] Probably because Robertson has been one of the best relief pitchers in baseball over the past 2-3 years. Also closers make very little difference.

I guess if forced to choose, I would do like Kelly Taylor and choose me.

Hmmm…

John Oscar Dicksus,[1] January 24, 1910 – November 4, 1997

In Zombie form, then?

Also closers make very little difference.

I said that here before.  I’m not saying I disagree, but you won’t find many that agree with you.

[80] Just because a majority hold an opinion, doesn’t make it right. I’m not saying closers are bad, or that I don’t care about quality of the closer (obviously you want the better pitcher), but the difference between a closer with a 2.5 ERA and a closer with a 4.5 ERA probably only amounts to a few saves/games over an entire year, and teams don’t lose every blown save.

[82] SG has numbers.

Is this based on your standing firm on previous comments, or can you elaborate as to why Robertson would have the team in first?

The Yankees are in first place by five games.  You would have to believe that Rafael Soriano is five games better than David Robertson to credit him as a reason for the team being in first place.

Let’s say Robertson is a 2.45 ERA pitcher like he’s been this year.  Hell, let’s say he’s a 3.45 ERA pitcher.  Let’s even say that Rafael Soriano is a 1.64 ERA pitcher.  The difference between them over 50 innings would be nine runs.  Now say you replace Robertson with someone who’s 9 runs worse than him, and replace that guy with someone who’s 9 runs worse than him.

We’re looking at a 27 run decline and you’re still only about 2.7 wins worse off.  Use leverage and move that up to 4 wins if you want.  The Yankees would still be in first place.

Soriano has been great.  But let’s not pretend he’s the difference between this team being in first place and second place.  Not when the team has a five game lead.

Put it another way.  In order for Rafael Soriano to be worth five wins you’d have to say a bullpen of Soriano/Robertson/pitchers A + B + C + D would give up 50 fewer runs than a bullpen of Robertson/pitchers A + B + C + D + E.  So unless you can show that Robertson runs minus Soriano runs plus pitcher E runs > 50 you won’t convince me otherwise.

So if Robertson closed then the 8th would’ve been Phelps?  The mix n match trio?
Joba?

I also wouldn’t discount the possibility that Swisher’s mentality is not conducive to playing well in the postseason, even if it’s remote.

This really surprises me. It’s the reverse of all anti-uninformed-A-Rod-haters arguments.

Also, I don’t want Swisher anywhere near the objective pipe. Let him smoke whatever he’s been smoking.

Also, I think this is dead wrong:

I also wouldn’t discount the possibility that Swisher’s mentality is not conducive to playing well in the postseason, even if it’s remote.

Quite the reverse - guys who depend on speed are probably likely to see far more precipitous drops in defense over these years than Swisher is. If anything, this should bode WELL for Swisher. Am I wrong about that?

[84] I think you quoted the wrong thing at the end there, but I agree with you. Swisher’s value comes primarily from “old player” skills, which should bode well for his age related decline.

You’re right - it was supposed to be:

His lack of speed in the OF now bodes poorly for how he will fare out there two to three years from now.

Presumably Swisher’s numbers as they stand should have less invested in speed.

Today I learned that I live across the street from Michael Pineda.

[87]  I hope your bedrooms are in the back, or you have a lot of car-slowing-down shrubbery in front.

Re Swisher mentality I seem to remember his saying he puts too much pressure on himself in October.  About how many ABs constitute a significant sample

Clemens is joining Scott Kazmir on an independent-league team. His fastball has been clocked at 87. Can we send Waldman to go broadcast that debut?

[87]  You must live on flat ground.

About how many ABs constitute a significant sample

Enough to outweigh the predictive value of his regular-season stats? A lot more than you’re ever likely to get, I’d imagine.

Jeter may well hold the record for post-season AB’s due to expanded playoffs and all the postseasons he’s been in.  He’s had 704.  His slash line in those 704 is pretty much the same as his career numbers.

Seems to me its pretty similar to lets say a golfer putting accurately in practice or in the middle of the pack during a tournament but not so well on the 18th with victory on the line.  Speaking personally and not a golfer I’ve choked a few nine balls in my time with money on the line.

[94] baseball is a bit different from golf (shocking I know) because it’s far more reaction based, I can see how his approach might change, but unless Swisher just gives up on taking pitches it seems unlikely that his talent level would vary that much.

95 Maybe but can’t you imagine your hands tightening up just a bit too much around the bat and your mind racing while losing the calm focus needed.  I do agree that it is rarer in baseball then golf for the reasons you mentioned.

[93] Which is a plus, since he’s surely faced better pitching.  Unless there’s a countervailing weather adjustment or pitchers tend to be more worn out than hitters by the postseason.

[96] Absolutely, I’m not arguing that some players don’t choke. Choking is a very real thing, but I have a hard time believing that Swisher’s post-season numbers are indicitive of his “under-pressure” talent level. My guess is that his post-season talent level is actually much closer to (but still lower than) his regular season numbers.

Isn’t the latest Saber theory on clutch in essence uh maybe. James mentions Ortiz and Chipper as two who may excel in the clutch and Griffey, Dunn and Pierre as three who may not.  I only skimmed the SI article so I’m probably missing a lot.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/30/james.clutch/index.html

Anybody ever paid the money to read Bill James at his website?