The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Thursday, April 26, 2012

NY Times: Yankees Lose Pineda for Season, and Hughes Adds to Worries

ARLI

NGTON, Tex. — It was a dreary day for the Yankees’ pitching rotation Wednesday, as news about Michael Pineda’s season-ending injury was followed by a bad outing from one of the pitchers the Yankees hope can make up for Pineda’s loss.

IIn the afternoon, the Yankees announced that Pineda had a torn labrum in his right shoulder and would miss the season, and the first month of next year. Several hours later, Phil Hughes compounded the problem.

I wanted to try and show the projected impact of losing Pineda, but at this point given the fact that those innings are going to be replaced by some combination of Hughes, Freddy Garcia and Andy Pettitte I don’t think I can do it.  I have no idea how to project any of them right now.  Hughes and Garcia are worse than replacement level and I’m not sure they’ll be better than that at any point this year.  With Pettitte we have the uncertainty of what a year off may have done to him.

If we assume Pineda’s replaced by replacement level innings, the Yankees lose about three wins.  Hopefully it’s not worse than that.

--Posted at 5:24 am by SG / 49 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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So what you’re saying is that the window for icons won’t be opening anytime soon?

I’ll re-open it on Saturday if Freddy Garcia pitches a quality start and the Yankees win the game.

From bounty to dearth, like that.

My prediction for Hughes last night was 6+ IP, 2 ER. I was right about everything except the IP and the ER.

Can we trade for a SP? I hear AJ Burnett is available.

Do you really want Cashman trading for another SP?  His track record is heinous.

It is inexplicable the amount of chances Hughes got to start vs Joba.  Just have to say that at the start.

Hughes as a starter has very little chance in my opinion of being better than replacement at this point.  If it was a game 163 tomorrow I would put Freddy out there ahead of him (if I had to choose between the two).

I think the best solution at this stage when Petitte comes back is to stick Hughes in the pen and go with a 4.5 man rotation with Garcia being skipped as often as possible.  Hopefully Pettitte can be a decent 4.

One of the bullpen almost has to be traded though (Hughes) - there is no point in having Hughes / Soriano and Robertson in the same Bullpen.

One of the bullpen almost has to be traded though (Hughes) - there is no point in having Hughes / Soriano and Robertson in the same Bullpen.

You could option Phelps to AAA to get him built up as a starter again and use Hughes as a long man.  Then he’s not really redundant to Soriano/Robertson.  Or, you could option Hughes and see if pitching in AAA and focusing on his secondary pitches in an environment where wins are less important can somehow fix him.  That may be the best course of action IMO.

Hughes to AAA works for me.

As for Joba, you know… I don’t agree with the way the Yankees handled him (I complained constantly about it).  But the fact is that he hurt his shoulder and was never the same afterward.  He lost ~3-4mph on his FB, and has never had great command.  The dominant starter we saw in 2008 was gone. 

Knowing what we know now, it’s pretty clear that running Joba out there to start would’ve been the better move, even if he was mediocre (and he was, post-injury), since Hughes has been sub-mediocre.  You might have salvaged a decent 4th/5th starter out of Joba.  But at the time, there was still considerable hope that Hughes could be better than a #4 guy. 

Fucking pitching prospects.

SG - I would agree except the reasons Hughes cant thrive as a starter will pretty much apply in the long man role.  It is becoming more and more clear he is a 1 inning reliever (possibly a very good one).

Even his comments yesterday before his start were disconcerting - paraphrasing he said he was not going to pitch backwards and was going to use his fastball to set up hitters and put them away with the curve if neccessary and change and cutter were basically break glass in case of emergency pitches.

That is to me a worrying mindset for a starter to have.  I think if he goes to AAA he gets people out with his fastball and nothing changes.

Lets start up the unrealistic trade comments.

And meanwhile, IPK has given Arizona 441 innings of 3.34 ERA ball. 

At the time of the Granderson trade, did *any* of us think IPK was going to be the best of the three?

Even Karstens has been better than Hughes.

Heh, who’s the Scary Flyball Guy now?

Sigh.

And he isnt even that cheap anymore.

The only time I saw IPK pitch he gave up a leadoff homer to Akinori Iwamura. May 15 2008 in TB. 5 ER in 5 innings, en route to an 8.17 ERA that year..both of which would actually be a step up for Hughes right now.

How is he actually pitching worse than last year?

So they loose 3 wins for Pineda, another what for Hughes (hes not going to be above RL), and probably at lest half a win from Garcia. That’s what, 5 wins worse than projected after 3 weeks?

I’m also concerned long term too. They can’t fix this with money because of 2014 payroll constraints nor do I think they can depend on Pineda pulling a Carpenter. He should have a spot in the rotation just in case but he shouldn’t be considered the #2 behind C.C. for the next x years anymore. Is Cole a necessity at this point?  Can they even afford him or is it “Pray one of the B’s develops fine despite the Yankees track record” our only hope?

From bounty to dearth, like that.

From delusion to reality, you mean. That’s how things go in the Champagne Room.

I think if he goes to AAA he gets people out with his fastball and nothing changes.

Yeah, I’m completely, totally, immovably done with Hughes as a starter. He can go out and have a good outing or two in a row, and I’ll never trust him.

Lets start up the unrealistic trade comments.

Hughes plus a parking garage for Felix.

while we are all being Nigel Negatives how far backwards has Banuelos gone that nobody even mentions him anymore as a potential to step in at mid-season.  This time last year we were still basking in the glory of his televised start against the sox in spring training and thinking he would be up by last years all star break.  Now he seems to rank somewhere just north of bringing back Chad Gaudin.

Is Cole a necessity at this point?  Can they even afford him or is it “Pray one of the B’s develops fine despite the Yankees track record” our only hope?

I think you hope Nova develops into a #2, then fill in behind him and CC.

Teix + Hughes for Pujols.

[16] I think money is the only way out of this trap. I think at this point they have to be seriously reconsidering that whole “get under the salary cap” strategy.

It was always a dicey question as to whether they could pull that off and field a perennial contender at the NYY level. I think they have to push that back a year or two.

I think at this point they have to be seriously reconsidering that whole “get under the salary cap” strategy.

Yeah, because they don’t just need pitching.  They need hitting too, and it ain’t coming from the farm.  Who’s in RF and who’s DHing next year?  Who’s catching? 

They can get to $189M easily enough.  They can’t build a contending team while doing it, not with the way many of Cashman trades and signings have worked out.

edit: Never mind, see #18

I think you hope Nova develops into a #2, then fill in behind him and CC.

I know you are right and I know it’s possible but I think they have already gotten way more out of Nova than they could have expected at this point last year. I feel like hoping for more is just being greedy. I know it doesn’t make it less likely he can develop into a #2 but it just feels that way.

Honestly, also, our high hopes for Phelps are largely based on a tiny SS.  Plans that rely upon him filling a rotation spot have to be treated as highly speculative at best.  And they should include a back-up plan.  (Let the jokes begin…)

[25] Well, the MLB sample size is tiny. The MiLB sample size isn’t. Phelps has almost 500 IP across all levels of the minors with a 3.66 K/BB.

BTW, they should be moving Pineda to the 60 day DL, right? So are they calling someone up?

Hughes should be relegated to the pen mop up duty. Maybe whoever the pitching guru is now can just work with him on his secondary pitches. Maybe he can dominate in relief again and be a trade chip. I like Phelps. Don’t we have some other AAA has beens on the farm now? I vote ABH for fifth starter, I can’t take it anymore. Unlike with someone like Vazquez or Burnett where they sucked and I dealt with it, sending Hughes out there every five days seems like going out with your high school ex who you should have moved on from 20 years ago.

I wish I could type /end rant but I can’t. rant rant rant.

Could Warren and DJ be worse than Hughes and Garcia at this point?

The warranty on Pineda hasnt expired yet has it?

I can hear it now. All Phil needs to get going is 10-15 more starts. Then we’ll know what we’ve got in him. Give him a fair shot.

Ugh.

Seriously, admit defeat now, move him to the pen where he can fulfill his destiny. Everybody knows it. Admit it. This is who he is. He’ll do wonderfully there.

If you give Garcia and Hughes 5 more starts each, what will our record be in those games ? 1-9 ? 2-8 ? 3-7 ? Well, shit, what’s 3 or 4 games over a season of 162 ?

I’ll tell ya what 3 games is. It’s the difference between making the playoffs and making tee times in October. No raindrop thinks it is responsible for the flood, but that’s no excuse to sit on your hands.

Act now, before it’s too late. Unless you want to dig a hole so deep we end up watching the AL East go Tampa, Boston, Toronto. Or we can finish third in the division and miss the 2nd WC behind the Angels.

Act now.

And the next time you have a chance for a Yu Darvish, take it. The next time you get an exec to name his price in prospects for King Felix, take it. Don’t go rooting around the bargain bin, thinking you’ll be the one to find a Dali or Picasso at the garage sale.

And don’t even bring up the subject of Jobapotamus. I mean it. Don’t.

[32] Jobapotamus.

BB-Ref, with unusual frankness, lists Bartolo Colon as 5’11”, 265.

[33] Oh it’s on, now motherfarnser ! I’ll…I’ll…eh, I don’t have the energy.

But MLBTR says the Chisox may be willing to part with Peavy. What would it take, what do we have to offer ?

Eh, Peavy’s not a good bet to stay healthy.  I’d rather they just pay Oswalt whatever he needs.

[32] Don’t go rooting around the bargain bin, thinking you’ll be the one to find a Dali or Picasso at the garage sale.

Worked pretty well last year.

Has Peavy been any good in the AL?

Banuelos: eek.  Betances: wtf?

FWIW, I never beleived in Betances.  At all.  Banuelos, though, I was excited about.  Bah.

Warren?

[32] Cashman didn’t go dumpster diving to get Pineda.  He did to get Colon & Garcia, which actually worked rather well.  He pulled a mysteriously effective Shawn Chacon out of a hat, as I recall.  I actually think he’s reasonably good at dumpster diving.

I didn’t watch the game, but Kuroda’s line looked okay.  Maybe there’s hope from that quarter.

[39] He didn’t go top shelf either. King Felix should have been the target.

He shoulda kept Colon. And Garcia, if they were undecided. At the time, they didn’t have Pettitte coming back. 6 for 5 sounds like a problem, but when one of them just finished his rookie year, another is new to the AL, another is one of your two dumpster reclamation projects, and another is Phil Hughes, giving Colon a ML deal and figuring you might have to release him is cheap insurance.

I’m not about abusing Cashman. I think he’s been pretty effective. I’m saying give him the latitude to go out and bag the big game.

[40] I’m fine with CC, Kuroda, Nova. It’s after that, things fall off sharply.

If the Yankees were really forward thinking and risk embracing, they would have traded Tex for a couple of fringy prospects, taught Hay-Seuss to play 1B, called Howard Spira on Phil Hughes, and saved me a lot of aggravation this spring.

[44] I too am among civilization’s discontents unless we win the World Series.

Remember how Colon finished the year.  RA over 6 after the All Star Break with steadily declining velocity.  They may have felt Colon was not good bet to be productive based on that.

FWIW, his fastball velocity is not as good as it was last year.  He’s down close to 2 mph.  He’s been very effective, but I’m not sure it’s sustainable.  Especially if his .229 BABIP starts to creep back towards league average.

Remember how Garcia and Hughes started this year. Let’s hope to Mo they aren’t allowed to sustain their performance.

[42] “He didn’t go top shelf either. King Felix should have been the target.”

KF is expensive and wouldn’t come for fair value anyway.  I think Pineda was a better target.

Didn’t they try for Felix first, and were told that he was untouchable?  Anyway, if it was Hernandez we’d be kvetching about his velocity loss too.

Plus as rilkefan says, he’s already being paid market value.  He’s not worth as much because of that.

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