Wednesday, January 11, 2012
NY Times: Kepner: Yankees Are Saving Now for a Potential Splash Next Winter
Cain is a 27-year-old right-hander, and Hamels is a 28-year-old left-hander. Otherwise, they are essentially the same pitcher. Cain has a 3.35 career earned run average, Hamels 3.39. They allow roughly the same number of base runners, and their advanced statistics (Wins Above Replacement, E.R.A.+) are close.
The Yankees played a version of this waiting game after the 2007 season, when they resisted a trade (and a subsequent long-term contract) for Johan Santana. They gambled that C. C. Sabathia would be available as a free agent the next winter, and they were right. The Yankees missed the playoffs in 2008 but signed Sabathia and won the World Series in 2009.
If we think about this winter’s relative inactivity in the way Kepner is thinking about it here, it doesn’t seem so bad. It is a gamble that either Matt Cain or Cole Hamels will even reach free agency, and yet another gamble that someone else won’t outbid the Yankees for their services, but I think after the A.J. Burnett signing went sour so quickly the Yankees will be gun shy about committing big money and years to anything less than top shelf talent. By the time Burnett’s contract is over, the Yankees will likely have paid $82.5M for maybe 4 WAR.
Not signing less than great players in free agency is a prudent approach provided they can fill out the rest of the roster with complementary players in cost-effective ways. For example, not signing middle relievers for $36M.
Comments
Budgetary considerations aside, a one-year deal for Kurrosive or Lee Harvey Oswalt wouldn’t interfere with their plan to acquire Hamels or Cain (if they’re abel).
I could see Kuroda being signed, but they will never sign Oswalt. Bad back plus I’m almost positive he is the player that Cashman was talking about who trashed the Yankees and then begged them to return his calls.
[2] I think that was Papelbon. Or maybe Bernie.
Kuroda is the best fit among him, Oswald and E-jax. Oswald murdered John F. Kennedy and, in addition to having been assassinated by Jack Ruby, has back issues. E-jax is hardly the figure of Greek mythology that Barasshole is selling and will want multiple years. If the Yankees can get Kuroda on a one-year deal and find room in their empty coffers to pay him, then I’m for it.
If only the Yankees had $12M laying around that was not being spent on a middle reliever…
If they get a decent starter, don’t you think Hughes should be moved to the bullpen where he is much more effective?
Sure. He can pitch teh fifth.
[5] I’m worried that this obsession will eat away at you inside.
[5] I’m worried that this obsession will eat away at you inside.
Maybe, but it’s probably preferable to kneeling at the feet of Soriano, or something.
I’m worried that this obsession will eat away at you inside.
What obssession? I’m speaking in a hypothetical sense.
If they get a decent starter, don’t you think HughesAJ should be moved to the bullpen where he is much more effective?
Fixed that for you.
In my mind, even if you think Hughes is a 1.2 WAR starter and AJ a 1.4 WAR starter, it STILL makes more sense for AJ to be the one moved to the bullpen. In at most 2 years, AJ is off the Yankees, regardless of how he performs. There’s still a chance that Phil Hughes is a #3 starter (or better) for the Yankees, in which case he could potentially be on the team in that capacity for another 5 or 6 years (or more). You’re only going to find that out if you start Hughes.
[10] Do hypothetical ulcers hurt as much as real ones?
Also, there’s a decent chance that the Yankees look at Kuroda, and see a #4/#5 starter who could command #2 starter money. So it could be less a case of them being cheap, and more a case of they don’t see how he’s better than anyone on the team already, and even if he is, not better enough to justify the cost. Especially if paying $12M now, means they can’t afford to trade for a “true” #1/#2 type in July if needed.
[11] Watch. They move AJ into the bullpen and he dominates for a season or so, so they sign him to a 3-year deal.
If there’s no good FA to get this year, then they should pass, but I don’t think they should pass this year simply to be in a position to target Cain or Hamels next year. Too many ifs. Plus, seems like there’s a good chance we’ll to end up in the same quandary: We’ll want Hamels (for example), but when the time comes we won’t want to give him the 8/$190mm (or whatever) it will take to get him. Nobody wants to see the Yankees make mistakes but I don’t want their fear of making a mistake cause them to go into a season with a glaring hole in the hope that in another year these decisions will somehow get easier and mistakes will somehow become more avoidable.
If they get a decent starter, don’t you think Hughes AJ should be moved to the SWB bullpen where he is much more effective?
Fixed that for you.
Fixed that for you.

Hamels and Cain are elite level pitchers, I have no issues with dumping a boatload of money on them. Similar to how I had no problem with the Sabathia or Tex deals.
I don’t think we are adverse to big deals, rather we strongly dislike deals that are bad/questionable when signed.
Do hypothetical ulcers hurt as much as real ones?
Hypothetically.
I don’t think we are adverse to big deals, rather we strongly dislike deals that are bad/questionable when signed.
Yep. I don’t think anyone had any problems with the Teixeira signing at the time, although knowing what we know now that might be different.
Yes, but knowing what I know now I would have borrowed money to short the market, not buy this stupid house.
AJ seems to do rather well the first two innings;
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=burnea.01&year=Career&t=p#innng
Maybe he would be good in relief.

Man, the orioles just signed someone. This team is a total joke. When did we turn into the Mets?

Don’t you think AJ should get nuked from space?
When did we turn into the Mets?
When Georgius Maximus Rex reached room temperature.
With SG’s last breath, he will curse the name of Rafael Soriano. The family might be disappointed that his last thought aren’t about them but it must be done
[21] It’s too easy to miss from space.
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