The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

NY Times: For Cano, Status and Pressure Are Rising

Girardi said he would keep an eye on Cano. In the past, Girardi said, he has worried about players who are embarking on a contract year. There is always the chance, he said, that a bad week at the plate will turn into a bad month because players are thinking about their next deal.

“Don’t let it snowball,” Girardi said. “But Robbie’s a pretty even-keeled guy, and he brings a smile every day. And I think you’ll still see that.”

If Cano has anything other than a great year, the Yankees will probably have a hard time winning the AL East.  But if he does not have a great year he may be cheaper to re-sign.  I doubt the pressure will affect him.

--Posted at 8:54 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)


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[0] Of course at his age and position, anything less than a great year (under 5 WAR) would also make them less likely to want to commit big $$‘s to him.  Best bet for Yankees of course is Cano to put up another 7+ win season and hopefully help get them into the playoffs.  After that, let the chips fall where they may.  Sometime today (Post I think) posited that Yankees would be willing to do 7/171 for Cano (slightly more than CC’s AAV).  May not be a bad deal at all…

Using the numbers SG generated here, in scenario A that’s a $22MM overpay, but in his last season he’s still a contributing player, if only at a bench level.  That’s non-awful and allows them to keep a potential HOF player.  In scenario B they’re saving ~$72MM and he’s still above average in the last year of his deal, and they have a likely sure-fire HOF for the majority of his deal..  2013 of course should help a little with determining which path he goes down, or something in between (and less than 5 WAR in 2013, they probably don’t resign him for anywhere near that).

I still think $200M is the magic number for Cano.

‘“I just let my agent, Scott handle it, ” he said, though he did want to make one thing clear: ‘It’s not about the money.”’

Think he’d take a moderately expensive one year deal to help them get below 189, with a handshake deal for a much bigger one from 2014 onwards?

[4] How would they hedge the career-ending-injury risk?

Yeah, they wouldn’t, it would never happen.

[2] Now?  Yeah definitely.  In December?  Who knows?  We speculate a lot about market exploding, but each year is different and who knows where it will go.  But if you assume $200MM is the magic number…add $4M to the 7 year deal and a $25MM option…so guarantee 7/180 with potential for 8/200.  Is that OK or too much?

For my two cents…if they can do 6/146 (basically AAV of 7/171 rounded up) I think it’s a no-brainer.  Cano is the 2nd highest paid Yankee (AAV) and highest paid 2B ever by any measure, so that should pass the “respect” test.  The contract is short enough that they are limiting risk, and the $$‘s - though high - are also workable considering he’ll be one of the top 2-4 2B in the game for most of the deal.  I also think anything north of $225MM is too much, regardless of how they get there.  If it’s 9 plus years it’s too long, if it’s less years it’s too much AAV.  Though a 10/200 deal may not be bad.  Years are horrible, but lowers the AAV enough that in early years will be able to add talent, in middle years he won’t hurt, and in late years he’ll hurt but hopefully threshold increases by then.  So there’s some gray area in there between like 6/146 and 8/200.

I think 8/$200M guaranteed eventually gets it done.  It’s close enough to Fielder with one year less since Cano will be older.

Not sure I want the Yankees to go that high, but I think that’s what it will take for someone to sign him.

Why not make it 20/200?

Good question. Considering the team’s penchant for players at the tail end of their career could they not make a mockery of AAV for luxury tax purposes with long contracts that extend well beyond when they will remain active? As an example Ichiro! got 2/13. Would he not have accepted, let’s say, 10/15, giving us an extra 5 mill wiggle room to stay under the cap? Or would this just be so blatantly obvious Selig would void the contracts?—mlb.html

What a glorious prick

I understand he’s the best player on the team right now, but is anyone else worried about a 2B on the wrong side of 30 who’s value is primarily tied up in BA?This combination of factors doesn’t sound good to me when you’re talking about a 7+ year deal.

[9 & 10] Well, I thought I would make it realistic…for one yes, Selig wouldn’t approve the contract as it is pretty clearly done to circumvent the luxury tax threshold.  For two, I doubt Cano would even go for 10/200.  But I was just giving an example of where I think it’s more about total $$‘s than years.  I’m not trying to contrive some plan to beat the cap.  But people have been talking for MONTHS about how they’d rather go higher AAV for less years, because the years kill.  I think that’s true to a point, but I also think there needs to be a tradeoff.  If Cano’s best offer is 7/175 ($25MM per) but he really wants to get to $200MM, I think if you’re okay with 7/170 you should also be okay with 10/200.  Yankees just have to say if he wants $200MM, he’ll need to take lower AAV.

[8] I imagine in the end you’re right.  But Cano isn’t the same as Fielder.  Maybe if it’s mid-January and he isn’t signed yet, he won’t be willing to, “wait for a market to develop”, and instead will want to take the best deal available at the time.  Or maybe he’s using Boras to maximize what he gets from Yankees instead of what he could get period (similar to Bernie in late 90’s), and if it appears Yankees’ offer truly is their best and they seem serious about signing a replacement (e.g. Utley), he takes the Yankees’ best.  In the end he’ll probably go for that 8/200 (or higher), but we really don’t know.

[12] I’m a little worried about a 2B on the wrong side of 30.  But I also don’t see him being at 2B long term.  I think a move to 3rd will be in order shortly, which will help extend his career.  And I don’t think will particularly lower his value.

However, his value is not primarily tied up in BA.  Last year he had a .066 isoD and a .237 isoP.  People may not realize, but he was 3rd on the Yankees in BB last year, behind only Teix and Swisher.  Plus he’s an average or better defensive 2B and I believe should be as good at 3B.

Looking at some of the data SG put out a few weeks ago, Cano is in a group of 2B where many of them aged very well and put up a lot of value after turning 30.  There are also a number who bombed.  I don’t think from the statistical record we can tell.  So we have to hope that the Yankees know enough about Cano otherwise, to make logical conclusions.  Also, there is a good amount of research to indicate that teams have a pretty good idea of which players to cut loose, above and beyond what the projection systems may say.

Bringing back Ichiro has fringe benefits:

“Derek Jeter was not the eater that the media portrayed him to be,” Ichiro said through his translator. “It was good to see him that way.”

[9]  Because if he ages like Jeter, he can get another fat 3-4 year deal after his 7 or 8 year deal expires.

[3] So it’s about the money.

maybe he’s using Boras to maximize what he gets from Yankees instead of what he could get period (similar to Bernie in late 90’s)

How many opt-out clauses are allowable under the new CBA?

I am slowly coming to terms with learning to live with 8 years/$200 million.

Anything more and I don’t think I can even sell it to myself. smile

Link from [11].  Of course he might be fibbing.

I don’t think Bernie was “using” Boras to get more money from the Yankees. It ended up playing out that way, and that was perhaps what he always wanted to happen, but had they not raised their offer I don’t really doubt he would have signed with the Sox. Same surely applies to Cano. Signing Boras then saying it’s not about the money… No one over the age of 5 should believe that.

Hah, I always kind of liked Pedro.

[21] Right, it’s not that he’ll take a LOT less to sign with Yankees.  Sherman has an article in the Post today about it.  W/ Bernie, IIRC, he got a large offer from Boston, went back to NYY, and took *slightly* less.  If Yankees had held firm on 5 years he would have signed with Boston.  But maybe if they had done 6 years with same AAV he would have done that?  We’ll never know of course.

If LAD offers 9/225 (little more than Fielder) and Yankees top offer is 6/144, Cano’s gone.  But maybe if top offer is 8/200 and Yankees won’t go higher than 7/175 Cano is OK sacrificing that last year to stay with Yankees for most of the rest of his career. 

[18] Yeah, exactly.  Whether I’m okay with 8/200 will probably be influenced by several factors.  Including Cano’s performance/health, whether or not we know if there were higher offers he spurned, and if his contract will allow the team to be competitive.

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