I need Ja Rule to help me make sense of Phil Hughes.

I for one intend to be a Positive Polly with two strike counts, until the first time Hughes fails to put a batter away.  It’ll be Negative Nancy from there on out.

To follow up a post I made on the last thread:

This just in:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-should-the-yankees-do-with-michael-pineda/

But if it is, maybe we won’t be such Negative Nancies when Phil gets to two strikes this year.

During complaintchatters, that is asking a lot.

[3] lol.

[3] Cameron needs to run the U.K. and stop talking crazy like Mental Drifter.

But if it is, maybe we won’t be such Negative Nancies when Phil gets to two strikes this year.

I think [2] is spot-on for most everyone.

Probably I’m the only one to not have seen this but its an interesting breakdown and video of Mo 2009.

Regarding Hughes and Pineda, they are who we thought they were.

[9]
That is, they are… destined to pitch teh forth and to take teh fifth?

I’m very bullish on Hughes this year.  I fully expect him to be one of the 4 best SP, likely one of the 3 best, the Yankees have this year.

[11] So you think CC and Kuroda will spend a lot of time on the DL, and Pettitte won’t make it out of the MiL?

Am I interpreting the Cameron piece correctly? Is Cameron suggesting the Yankees should take advantage of Pineda’s alleged velocity issues to get another year out of him?

[13]
He says he’s saying that they should put him down there so as to bring him up only when his arm strength and velocity are what they should be, which will give them the ancillary benefit of another year, but that he wouldn’t suggest doing it BECAUSE it would give them another year.
 
(As if a player wouldn’t play that game if it were to his benefit.)

He is comparing Pineda to Bumgarner who’s situation was slightly different as Bumgarner lost his velocity during the previous season and then was quite ineffective in ST (and even in his first several AAA starts) to the point where people were wondering if he flamed out. Pineda, on the other hand, has remained effective and in general has looked good, despite his diminished velocity.

Additionally if Pineda is still getting back into shape we might see his velocity to continue to rise.

Between Pettitte on the MiLB contract, and sending Pinata down, it appears Kei Igawa may not hold on to his SWB Franchise All-Time Wins record for very long.

Kei gets screwed over by the Yankees again, way more than Freddy.

If Pineda’s drop in velocity forces him to make better use of his other pitches it could be a blessing in disguise, particularly if the velocity eventually comes back.

The Yankees should be the last team playing service time games.  By the time Pineda’s contract status is an issue they should be back over the luxury tax limit after extending Teixeira for his ages 36-45 seasons and re-siging Jeter for his ages 45-60 seasons anyway.

Were we worried about diminished velo before ST?

By the time we’re out from under Jeter, ARod and Teix’s next contracts, there will be 7 WC spots.

[19] Nah, they are just going to adopt the T-ball philosophy “Everyone’s a winner!”

Were we worried about diminished velo before ST?

I think most worries were based on his worse second half, which appeared to be more of a results issue than a talent issue.

[21]
Thanks, SG, that’s what I thought.
If it’s based just on a few ST performances, it’s not worth the effort, I think.

[19, 20]
Statistically indistinguishable.

I so, so wish Pena had a passable bat.

[23] I wish Nunez could play Jeter level defense.

I so, so wish Rango had a passable bat.

I wish Ibanez had Pena-type bat.

[24] I wish Nunez could play ME level defense.

I think it’s unrealistic to expect to get offense out of DH. You should get the guy who you think can play less heinous defense in the case of an emergency than the best offensive option.

There’s a 3-way breaking out in the booth.

Yay Gardner!

I really thought Bobby V would look more natural in a Townies uni, seeing as how big a douchebag he is.

Ortiz ? Wait, I thought Gammons was the Face of the Red Sox.

It’s gonna be like this all year with Francona, isn’t it ?

Every fucking broadcast will be a 2004-fest.

Shut up, ya bald headed elf. You swung right into that pitch.

Prick.

[12] “So you think CC and Kuroda will spend a lot of time on the DL, and Pettitte won’t make it out of the MiL? “

No, I think Sabathia will be awesome and Pineda will be very, very good.

Kuroda’s old, coming to a tougher league, division and park.  I’d probably guesstimate him at around 170 IP, 105-110 ERA+.  Pettitte’s really old and took a year off.  At his peak he may be pretty good, but he won’t give much quantity, and will scuffle initially, maybe 120 IP, 100 ERA+.

I expect Hughes to do better than both of those lines.

Who’s more fun to watch than Granderson?

[35] I think this is Hughes’ year. So far in spring training he seems to have all the pitches he needs to succeed, the FB, the curve and the change whcih allows him to keep the cutter has a 4th, show me, pitch to keep batters honest.

Doug Bernier’s our best shortstop option, isn’t he?

Warren’s looked pretty good so far.  He’s no Aaron Cook, but he’s been solid.

[36] Claire Sinclair.

[38] We’ve seen him at 2B, too. He looks solid in the field. Can he hit ?

I crave a non-Nunez, non-Pena option as BUI.

Adam Warren blew his opportunity to force himself onto the 25-man. All he had to do was bean Youklis.

He looks solid in the field. Can he hit ?

He never hit before.  Career line of .238/.347/.314 in the minors.

I am almost embarrassed for the Sox with this janky-ass mini-Fenway they’re playing in.

I can’t shake the feeling that Youk’s head should have a neutron-star-like gravitational pull specific to baseballs.

The Bobby V era is going to be a lot of fun.

[43] It’s Mickey Mouse. Bad enough they have it in Boston by virtue of poor 100 year ago civil engineering. But here they may as well have a WIPEOUT water feature.

[46] I would watch the shit out of Ellsbury getting knocked off of obstacle courses.

Olney just said Garcia and Hughes are tradebait.

I can see that.  Garcia for salary relief, Hughes for a good young bat.

Betances is the tits.  I can’t remember a time when our system top to bottom had so many good arms.  I wonder where de Paula will rank among our prospects now that his visa issues are resolved.

[50] So, does that mean Betances is insurance, stashed in AAA, that allows them to move Garcia or Hughes, or is Betances himself tradebait ?

Have to think the more the like of Betances the less they’d want to trade him, looking at salary and luxury tax going forward. 2 years ago I’d say their thinking would have been different.

Cory Wade really eating some innings here in garbage time.

Can’t see them trading Hughes without giving him some time to raise his value back up some. If he pitches well enough to do so though I’ll bet they keep him unless the rest of the rotation is quite healthy and effective.

Bring in Mo !

[49]  Trading both would be assinine.

You’re going to leave yourself with Pettitte as your #5 from day 1?

Trade Garcia, sure.  But Hughes looks like, at worst, their 4th best SP right now.  Trading him now makes no sense.

What position is the “good young bat” going to play?  Why would anyone give us a really good young hitter until Hughes proves something in the regular season?

[35] Just practicing my complaining.

[55] I don’t see Pettitte being ready to start on opening day. You gotta figure he’s 30-45 days behind schedule. So for April, anyway, we’re still at 6 men for 5 spots, and somebody in the pen. Of course, if they have confidence in Betances they could trade Garcia and use Betances in long relief and in case of injury to a starter.

Who could they get for Garcia and his one-year, $4m contract in a trade for a one year bat ?

Don’t forget, Joba due back in the June/July timeframe as well. I don’t see him starting this year but he could work out of the pen.

What are the odds Pettitte goes to the pen, makes the odd start here and there but also vampires a few wins along the way. That’s what this is about, right ? Helping Andy get closer to the Hall ?

I would bet it takes an injury (probably multiple) in order for Betances to start the season on the ML roster in any capacity. He walked 5/9 IP last year.

Dont trade Phil unless its for Jesus

Who else was at the airport to greet Timmy besides me.  Im so excited.

[49]  Trading both would be assinine.

I was saying I could see the reasons to trade one or the other.  I don’t think either will be traded.

Although assinine[sic] seems to describe quite a few of the Yankees’ decisions.

What position is the “good young bat” going to play?

OF or 3B, but since they have a hole at DH it doesn’t matter.  Also, there are years beyond 2012, you know.  Get a guy who gives the team depth now with an eye on having him in RF in 2013.

I wouldn’t try to trade Hughes now, but if someone offered something good at a position of need I’d go for it. 

What if he sucks this year?  His value only goes down even more.

Freddy is tradeable now, if they get something of value for him.  I wouldn’t have any issues with Mitchell/Phelps stepping in and being the long-man/swing-starter for the first couple of months.  Cheaper for the role, get some idea of what they can contribute going forward (like Noesi last year), etc.

After that Pettitte is probably ready, though for what role we don’t know yet.  If it’s needed as a starter we’re good.  If 2 starters are needed, we’ve already tried out Phelps or Mitchell, and the other can slide into long-man role.  And isn’t even counting Betances or Warren, or later Banuelos in AAA.

Hughes I don’t see a trade.  His value isn’t high enough right now.  And if he pitches well enough to raise his value appreciably, I don’t see why the Yankees wouldn’t keep him.  After all, 2013 they only have 3 pitchers right now - CC, Pineda, Nova.  I think they’d rather stay out of the FA market, and counting on TWO of the AAA kids is tough.

What if he sucks this year?  His value only goes down even more.

If he sucks this year he’s probably non-tendered.  So definitely he has more value now.  But as above (got pulled away mid-post, should have refreshed), I don’t think they’ll get much of anything now.  Teams would be looking to buy low on Hughes.

If they want to get a young player - probably looking at RF though 3B makes some sense - Nova is the likely chip.  Dom Brown seems to make sense as a return, though there are issues with a Brown/Nova swap (if Phillies would even do).  But I’m thinking Nova should be able to get something of similar value.  Maybe a little more certainty/little less upside would be nice.

“Hughes I don’t see a trade.  His value isn’t high enough right now.  And if he pitches well enough to raise his value appreciably, I don’t see why the Yankees wouldn’t keep him.  After all, 2013 they only have 3 pitchers right now - CC, Pineda, Nova.  I think they’d rather stay out of the FA market, and counting on TWO of the AAA kids is tough. “

That’s pretty much my take.

“OF or 3B, but since they have a hole at DH it doesn’t matter.  Also, there are years beyond 2012, you know.  Get a guy who gives the team depth now with an eye on having him in RF in 2013.”

If they need a DH, sign Damon.  I don’t think asking a young hitter to DH is a good idea.

Why is everyone in such a hurry to replace Swisher?  He would seem to be a perfect guy for the ~$12M arb offer.  He likes NY, he’d probably take it.  A longer deal makes sense too.  He’s been nothing but solid for the Yankees.

If you could get a good 3B, sure, trade Hughes.  But nobody is trading a starting calibre, young, 3B for Hughes.

Why is everyone in such a hurry to replace Swisher?

Because we’d rather see the money that would go to him go to Robinson Cano or Curtis Granderson.  You can’t keep everyone and hit the $189M payroll target.

“Because we’d rather see the money that would go to him go to Robinson Cano or Curtis Granderson.  You can’t keep everyone and hit the $189M payroll target.”

Man, I disagree totally on the Swisher vs. Granderson.  Granderson’s signed for two more years anyway, so an arb offer to Swisher doesn’t affect him.

Plus, I’d much, much, much rather give Swisher the 3/40 he’ll get (for his age 32-34 seasons) than give Granderson 6/120 (for his age 32-37).  Granderson’s next contract is going to be bad.  Have we learned nothing from ARod II, Texeira, Jeter, etc., etc.?

Cano’s also controlled for two more years.  With him, you’ll be buying age 31-? seasons.  I’m torn on his contract.  I want to resign him, but I sure as hell don’t want to give him a Carl Crawford deal.  2Bs just don’t last.

In any case, I’m very confident Swisher’s next contract is going to be a better deal for his team than Granderson’s, and fairly confident it will be better than Cano’s.

If they need a DH, sign Damon.  I don’t think asking a young hitter to DH is a good idea.

I think the idea more is that since they have the DH spot essentially open, they could get a young player for any position and rotate people into DH.  For example, if they get a young 2B who can also handle 3B and play SS in a pinch - and looks more likely to be starting-caliber than Nunez - you can put ARod at DH 40 times, Cano maybe 10, Jeter 10.  Added in with complete off-days for those, your young IF get maybe 80 starts in the field.  Next year you decide if the 2B is worth moving Cano to 3rd and DH ARod more.  IDK if its the BEST option, but it certainly is AN option.  Getting a young OF makes the most sense for a lot of reasons.

Why is everyone in such a hurry to replace Swisher?  He would seem to be a perfect guy for the ~$12M arb offer.  He likes NY, he’d probably take it.  A longer deal makes sense too.  He’s been nothing but solid for the Yankees.

1) It’s a risk, because (I think) it’s just a qualifying offer.  Swisher could still find a long-term deal that pays a higher AAV.
2) Even if he takes the 1 year arb, that just moves replacing him a year further.  There are only 3 OF (IMHO) currently in the system who even have a CHANCE of being ready for full time work in 2014.  Laird, Brewer, Mesa.  None are likely better than bench players though.  If that.  So it’s just kicking the can down the road.
3) Yankees seem serious about getting under the threshold in 2014.  Swisher at $12M a year, makes that difficult.  Especially if they also want to keep Cano OR Granderson, nvmd both.

If they can get a 23-25 year old RF who looks to provide league-average (or better) production for the next 3-5 years, while being cheap, I think they should do it.  If the cost is reasonable of course.

Well sure, if you get to set up the terms of the contracts so Swisher’s only going to get 3/$40M and Granderson’s going to get 6/$120M, it makes sense to keep Swisher instead of Granderson, but you’re pulling those #s out of your rear end.  How do we know what terms either guy’s looking for?  Unlike A-Rod, Granderson already agreed to a team-friendly extension in his career.  It’s possible maximizing his earning isn’t of paramount importance to him.

[66] There’s a push to extend Cano now, so if you give him a 6/120 now, you get him 29-34.

Saying Swisher will get 3/40 is nice, but uncertain.  He could get more.

There’s nothing wrong with offering Swisher the qualifying offer.  But if they can get a long-term replacement now, why not?

I can see Granderson vs. Swisher.  2012 will help firm up if Granderson’s new talent level is “real”.  However, this also shows the importance of getting another OF.  Because they may not be able to/want to keep Granderson.  So if they get a good corner RF, Swisher may still be fine as a LF in 2014-2017, moving Gardner to CF until Mason Williams is ready.

There’s little downside to acquiring a young talented OF.  Makes the team better now (all the other OF are upgrades over Ibanez at DH), makes better in the future, for cheaper.

“If they can get a 23-25 year old RF who looks to provide league-average (or better) production for the next 3-5 years, while being cheap, I think they should do it.  If the cost is reasonable of course. “

Well sure, but that’s just saying if I can make a good trade, make it.

To me, Swisher’s production is cheap, and will likely remain so.  Let’s not forget, he’s produced the same 11 WAR over the last 3 years as Granderson.

Getting under the 2014 payroll is all about the SP.  To have any shot of being under, they need to fill 4 rotation spots cheaply from Pineda, Hughes, Nova, Banuelos, Betances, Warren, Phelps, et al.

If they do that, they’ll have the money for Cano, and Swisher.  If they don’t, they won’t stay under and remain a playoff team.

“There’s little downside to acquiring a young talented OF.  Makes the team better now (all the other OF are upgrades over Ibanez at DH), makes better in the future, for cheaper. “

The downside is losing Hughes, who you’ll need in your rotation so you don’t have to sign a $10M veteran SP.

If you can get a starting quality young player for prosepcts do so by all means.

“There’s a push to extend Cano now, so if you give him a 6/120 now, you get him 29-34.”

Which is still a little scary to me (see Utley, Chase) but I’d probably do it.

[68]“Well sure, if you get to set up the terms of the contracts so Swisher’s only going to get 3/$40M and Granderson’s going to get 6/$120M, it makes sense to keep Swisher instead of Granderson, but you’re pulling those #s out of your rear end.  How do we know what terms either guy’s looking for?  Unlike A-Rod, Granderson already agreed to a team-friendly extension in his career.  It’s possible maximizing his earning isn’t of paramount importance to him.”

Do you disagree that the market will value Granderson’s skills much more than Swisher’s?

To me, flashy five-tool CF hitting 40 bombs, screams Carl Crawford overpay, while goofy looking RF who walks, and provides + defense while looking awkward, screams bargain.

Do you disagree that the market will value Granderson’s skills much more than Swisher’s?

Do you disagree that Granderson’s a better player than Swisher and should be valued more highly?

And I don’t think Granderson’s a five tool guy.  Doesn’t hit for average and doesn’t throw all that well.

It’s been a while since we got really excited about any of our developing position players (non-Jesus Division). I mean AJax level enthusiasm.

Do we have anyone who is really pushing to come up ?

Pena has reached his ceiling and is out of appendices. He’s a BUI and not a solution to our geriatric infield.

Nunez in the field is used to frighten children into good behaviour across 5 boroughs and 12 counties.

Laird has yet to push either of two 45 year old semi-retired former MVP’s off of third base and has a vertical leap in the single digit inches.

Melky Mesa’s biggest strength is being named “Melky”.

Romine doesn’t outhit Cervello and I don’t think I’ve seen him in ST - is he injured ?

Coban Joseph ? Other than the nurse at the hospital switching his first and last names, do we know anything about him ?

Colin Curtis I think will probably stick in the majors somewhere as a fourth OF, and anyways has he earned the right to roam the hallowed ground (200 yards from) where legends played and ghosts inhabit ?

JMax ? I have a hard time falling in love with a “prospect” who’s the same age as a starter we’re already projecting to decline due to age.

Almonte ? He’s still looking to make the jump to AAA. If he tears up AAA, maybe he’s a factor in 2013, but then he starts approaching his expiration date.

Where’s the next Jeter ? The next A-Rod ? The next phenom to rocket through the farm and up to The Show before he legally buys his first stateside beer ?

No, I think we’re going to have to trade for young, cheap position players if we want to avoid expensive FA.

Romine’s had a back problem.

[73]“Do you disagree that Granderson’s a better player than Swisher and should be valued more highly?”

He’s better, but not a lot better.  We’re talking about maybe a 4.5 WAR player vs. a 3.5-4 WAR player.

Romine’s had a back problem.

I must have missed this, but I was pretty sure we were seeing an awful lot of Gil/Molina/etc.

Thanks.

The downside is losing Hughes, who you’ll need in your rotation so you don’t have to sign a $10M veteran SP.

The downside is losing a young pitcher, not necessarily Hughes.  Yes, you move the risk from needing to replace Swisher to needing to replace a starter.  But starting pitcher depth they have in the minors.

I think I’ve been consistent - if the price is right.

Getting under the 2014 payroll is all about the SP.

No, it’s about filling roles with young, cheap talent.  SP makes the most obvious sense, b/c they have lots of it.  But OF is another place they could do so, and one way is to turn some of the SP depth in the minors into an OF.

To me, flashy five-tool CF hitting 40 bombs, screams Carl Crawford overpay, while goofy looking RF who walks, and provides + defense while looking awkward, screams bargain.

CC was an overpay in hindsight anyway.  Granderson will still be younger than Swisher, and if he puts up another 6+ WAR season, it’s hard to argue he won’t be a better bet for the next 5-6 years than Swisher.  Is it “worth” the contract?  IDK.  Part of that might depend on how much it will cost to fill other spots.

IDK if they can get a young OF for a reasonable price.  But they’ve got a LOT of pitching at AAA and the majors that needs to start.  It can’t all start for Yankees, so (eventually) some of it will need to be traded.  The only need in the lineup right now is DH, BUT Swisher works fine as a DH, and for the talent I think you’d rather get a young OF who provides insurance next year.  Hell, if they get a good enough talent, maybe you trade Granderson after 2012 and extend Swisher, and use the Granderson savings for Hamels, or for extending other players (Hughes if he proves he’s top of rotation, Cano).

[74]  Romine’s probably the only player above single-A right now that a lot of people look at as a solid regular going forward.  There are still question marks, but most of what I’ve read thinks he’ll be around average for several years.  Which has a ton of value of course, but isn’t exciting.  I hope Dan Brewer is healthy this year.  I didn’t get a chance to see him much in AAA (he was hurt and ended up repeating AA a lot), but I think he’s also get a chance to be a regular.  He’s a guy that does nothing exceptional, but seems to do a lot of things well.

After that?  Tampa and JR Murphy maybe?  IDK if he’s going to rocket through the system, but if his defense has improved as much as reported, I could see him finishing the year in AA, maybe even a spend a little time in AAA if things break right.  I think there’s a few other players who could spend time in A+ that have a chance for breakout years, but nothing to get excited about yet.

After that of course, Charleston is stacked.  I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see any (or all) of Austin, Bichette, Williams, or Sanchez - maybe even outside shot at Culver - finishing the year in Tampa.  Maybe one even getting 100 PA in AA, though Yankees don’t do that very often.

[79] Thanks, Mike. I knew you’d have some insights there.

To me, that reinforces the Pinata/Montero trade even more, since Montero was going to have less value to us than Pinata, solely on the ability to stay under budget and use our excess pitching prospects to acquire a more multi-dimensional position player.

Edit: Well, not SOLELY, but IMPORTANTLY. Pinata himself should have real value as a SP.

[78]“Granderson will still be younger than Swisher, and if he puts up another 6+ WAR season, it’s hard to argue he won’t be a better bet for the next 5-6 years than Swisher. “

What do you mean “another 6+ WAR season”?  BRef has his only 6+ WAR season as 2007.  5.3 last year.

I think the whole point is a guy like Swisher is unlikely to require a 5-6 commitment, while Granderson likely will.

Yes I’d rather have Granderson’s age 32-37 seasons than Swisher’s, but I’d rather have Swisher’s age 32-34/35 seasons than Granderson’s 32-37.

Also, when you are looking at losing some FAs, all else equal, you always want to keep the ones who become FAs first.  That way you maximize the overlap years.