The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

NY Post: Yankees know the ‘lucky’ line between dynasty and disaster

TAMPA – It’s not going to go how you expect.

That is hardly the cheery, pie-eyed optimism associated with pitchers and catchers reporting and the first day of spring training. But it is not going to go how you expect with the Yankees and their most concerted youth movement in a quarter of a century. That doesn’t mean it has to go badly.

If I had told you in 1993 that the Yankees were going to be dynastic from 1996-2001, you would have bet Brien Taylor and Ruben Rivera would anchor the greatness. Taylor blew out his shoulder and never spent a day in the majors, Rivera failed to translate great tools into on-field success.

This is the chaos theory of baseball, what Yankee GM Brian Cashman called “the beauty and the danger of the sport.”

Consider that in the 28 years Baseball America has done a top-100 prospect list, the Yankees have had four top-three prospects: Taylor, Rivera, Joba Chamberlain and Jesus Montero, who ranked third in 2011 behind Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.

Taylor and Rivera were the only Yankees to be in the top three twice. Taylor was the only Yankee who was No. 1 overall, in 1992, and he was second in 1993. Rivera was No. 2 in 1995, behind Alex Rodriguez and ahead of Chipper Jones and Derek Jeter. He was No. 3 in 1996, right behind Paul Wilson. Yep, it is not going to go how you expect.

I still don’t know what happened with Ruben Rivera.  He was going to be the next Mickey Mantle…

It is sobering to look the list of former Yankee top-three prospects and realize just how uncertain baseball prospecting is.  You can have a bunch of great prospects and none may pan out.  Of course, no one thought Robinson Cano was going to be a potential Hall of Fame 2B until he became one. 

We don’t know how the Yankees’ youth movement is going to go, but I am encouraged to see them trying it.

--Posted at 9:34 am by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Ruben Rivera for Hideki Matsui was Jesus Montero for Micheal Pineda before Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda was cool.

You mean Ruben Rivera (and Rafael Medina) for Hideki Irabu (RIP)?

This feels disrespectful to Homer Bush, somehow.

Could this article have been written about most MLB teams or is this an anomaly for the Yankees? Is this a possible byproduct of selective endpoints (Jeter was ranked #4)? Even the article shows A-Rod as #1.

[5]
Here the list.  Top ten prospects from 1994 to 2009.

My quick perusal indicates that around 2/3 of the top three become at least a very good player.  The Yankees lack of success beats the odds

[6] If Nick Johnson stays healthy, how much better does that make the Yankees MiL system look in recent history? When he was healthy he was very good. It’s pretty hard to scout/develop durability (especially in Johnson’s case where it was equal parts fragility and freak injuries).

Also this: Top 10 Busts: Did the Yankees break Joba Chamberlain, or was he always going to break?

Well, I don’t think you can blame the Yankees for Brien Taylor.  Montero was traded for Pineda—whatever you think of Pineda, still a clear win for the Yanks, as Montero was ruined by the Mariners player-ruining machine.  Ruben Rivera was a clear disappointment, a headcase who maybe should have gotten more attention from the Yanks.  Chamberlain, that one I put squarely on the Yankees.

[7]
Remember the “Nick Johnson Cycle”:A homerun, a walk, a hit by pitcher and an injury.

Mike Lowell was a pretty good Yankees product.

[9] Not to mention Johnson looked like a chubby Billy Zane.

I always though he looked like Vincent D’Onofrio myself.

I always though he looked like Vincent D’Onofrio myself.

That was exactly what he looked like. It was some real Private Pyle shit going on there.

11,12,13

I dunno. Quick and dirty mashup suggests more Zane, but you be the judge.

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Severino was working with Pedro in the Dominican. I don’t trust that at all.

Also, Zane has always been chubby Billy Zane.  Met him once.  He was a prick.  Anyone surprised?

[16] I’d be pretty upset if everyone called me Billy and I was a grown-ass man.

[16] Sounds like someone’s still bitter about spending 8 bucks on The Phantom.

[18]  GET OUT OF MY MIND

Seriously, despite a lot of misfires, this is the golden age of comics movies.  Couldn’t you envision an amazing version of the Phantom made today?

The golden age of comics movies peaked with Dolph Lundgren’s Punisher.

Couldn’t you envision an amazing version of the Phantom made today?

Theoretically, yes, but only theoretically. In practice, no one is ever going to do a good Phantom adaptation.

This brings me to a question perhaps no one here can answer—two questions—

Are there any serialized adventure strips in newspapers any more?  I know they exist online.

Does anyone buy monthly comic books any more?

[23] I feel like you’re hiding a butterfly net behind your back and you hope Cronin checks out the birdseed under the box propped up with a stick.

Are there any serialized adventure strips in newspapers any more?

Yes, but just not as many. Dick Tracy, for instance, is still in a bunch of papers.

Does anyone buy monthly comic books any more?

Yes, but just not as many. wink

[14] Definitely way more Vincent than Billy.

The golden age of comics movies ended with The King of Comedy.

[21] What about the Dolph Lundgren Alway’s Sunny movie about the crime-sniffing super hero?

Austin out with a foot fracture. 6 weeks. Chris Carter signing looks really good now.

[29] Maybe Ref gets a shot now?

[29]  To be consistent, which is a good thing in sports, I must continue to oppose the signing,

[30] I think that with the Carter signing Austin was likely to start the year in AAA no matter what. This basically guarantees it.

Assuming the Yankees go with a 12 man pen…

C: Sanchez
1B: Bird
2B: Castro
SS: Gregorious
3B: Headley
LF: Gardner
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Judge
DH: Holliday
BUC: Romine
IF: Carter
IF: Torreyes
OF: Hicks

Ref is still on the outside looking in. If he shows improvement at 3B, he could win a spot over Torreyes. But right now it looks like Austin, Refsnyder and Williams are the likely AAA depth.

IMO, the big thing here is that if Judge ends up still needing some more time at AAA, the Yankees don’t have Austin to slide into that spot and Hicks starts with Williams/Refsnyder as the 4th OF.

I think Refsnyder’s time has come and gone.  He might turn into a useful player a la Eduardo Nunez, but I don’t think it’ll be on the Yankees.  Barring further injury (always a possibility), I think Ref’s gone not later than next offseason.  Too much talent coming up behind him.

[30] That’s hilarious… I come here for the humor and I am never disappointed.

And BTW, more Zane than D’On.  Maybe we should take a vote.  But we need better pictures for comparison.  And while I am typing this, I am acutely aware that I get a little more insane every day without baseball.  Winter is long.

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