The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

NY Post: Which Kluber will Yankees see? Stats offer conflicting stories

CLEVELAND — The Yankees got to Cleveland ace Corey Kluber in Game 2 for six runs in just 2 ²/₃ innings, knocking the Cy Young candidate out of the game.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is the Yankees went on to lose that game, with Joe Girardi and the bullpen managing to blow a five-run lead.

The other dose of bad news for the Yankees? Kluber rarely has two rough outings in a row.

The only time he surrendered six runs during the regular season, April 15 against the Tigers, he came back to shut out the White Sox in his next outing.

“We’ve seen him extremely sharp and I think we caught him on a night that he wasn’t sharp,” Girardi said. “So you hope you catch him on another night that he’s not sharp.’’

On those nights when Kluber was sharp against the Yankees, they had little chance.

The right-hander held them to a run on three hits in a complete-game victory Aug. 3, when he struck out 11, and then allowed just two runs on three hits in eight innings against them Aug. 28.

Before his Game 2 fiasco, Kluber hadn’t given up more than two runs in an outing since Aug. 13.

Corey Kluber is probably the best pitcher in the American League.  He is miles better than CC Sabathia.  If you believe the Fangraphs depth chart projections, there is almost no difference between the Yankees’ lineup and Cleveland’s lineup.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Brett Gardner LF 5.00 .260/.345/.409 3.28 0.63
Aaron Judge RF 5.00 .253/.363/.528 3.19 0.80
Gary Sanchez C 5.00 .268/.330/.512 3.35 0.75
Didi Gregorius SS 5.00 .273/.316/.440 3.42 0.62
Starlin Castro 2B 4.45 .278/.315/.435 3.05 0.54
Gregory Bird 1B 4.00 .239/.322/.464 2.71 0.53
Todd Frazier 3B 4.00 .235/.324/.456 2.70 0.52
Chase Headley DH 4.00 .258/.337/.398 2.65 0.47
Aaron Hicks CF 4.00 .251/.337/.419 2.65 0.51
Total 40.45 27.00 5.38
Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Francisco Lindor SS 5.00 .289/.349/.478 3.26 0.72
Jason Kipnis CF 5.00 .261/.330/.427 3.35 0.63
Jose Ramirez 2B 5.00 .298/.354/.489 3.23 0.75
Edwin Encarnacion DH 5.00 .261/.367/.513 3.17 0.80
Jay Bruce RF 4.57 .258/.324/.493 3.09 0.65
Carlos Santana 1B 4.00 .258/.372/.470 2.51 0.60
Lonnie Chisenhall LF 4.00 .270/.328/.445 2.69 0.52
Yan Gomes C 4.00 .236/.292/.413 2.83 0.44
Giovanny Urshela 3B 4.00 .246/.281/.357 2.88 0.35
Total 40.57 27.00 5.46

I don’t have actual lineups for tonight, but this should be fairly close.  The Indians are projected to be about 0.08 runs better than the Yankees offensively.  The difference tonight is in the expected performance of the pitching.

Pitcher Role IP R
CC Sabathia SP 5.00 2.79
Chad Green RP 1.00 0.43
David Robertson RP 2.00 0.78
Aroldis Chapman RP 1.00 0.32
Total 9.00 4.32
Pitcher Role IP R
Corey Kluber SP 6.00 2.23
Andrew Miller RP 2.00 0.52
Cody Allen RP 1.00 0.39
Total 9.00 3.14

That translates to a win probability for Cleveland of 67.2% vs. the Yankees 32.8%.  I probably would have started Sonny Gray over Sabathia tonight, but the difference is only about 0.25 runs over five innings and about a 4% change in Yankee win probability.  It doesn’t change the fact that this is one of the largest mismatches in a winner-take-all series finale game ever, and it’s extremely likely the Yankees are going home after tonight.

Frankly, I’m not sure they should even bother playing.

--Posted at 11:54 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)


Page 1 of 1 pages:

Bosox fire Farrell. Managers are hired to be fired.

[0] So no need to play the game. Kluber, the Yankees overlord.

Girardi could be the difference-maker. The only question is for which team.

Panic the Yankees into giving Girardo a new deal is what I thought.

I think we might be ignoring the obvious strategy of having Garcia open the game with as many consecutive beanballs as they let him get away with.

Without Lindor and Encarnacion this a much less fearsome lineup.

It also probably takes Joe out of the game early, so….

[5] Win-Win? I approve.

And now Strasburg is going to pitch. Can’t put Dusty in a box.

[1] It seems pretty nuts to me to fire him, but what do I know? What’s the average tenure of different team’s managers…has anyone here crunched those numbers?

Farrell is the fourth manager the Red Sox have had in 8 years.

ESPN “Dombrowski agreed that the team needs a new voice in the clubhouse and a fresh public face. Despite another first-place American League East finish, the Red Sox grew increasingly unpopular this season. Prime-time television ratings on New England Sports Network dropped 15 percent below ratings last year.” I hear Leno is looking for a job. “there was a perception that he lost respect from some veterans who doubted he had their back. Left-handed pitcher David Price, for one, seemed to treat Farrell with derision by calling him “Manager John.” Price is a real class act.

Why is it nuts not to renew his contract, which is expiring, so no firing is necessary.

She was referring to Farrell.

(Reposting from last thread) In order of frustration:

10.) Yanks go down a couple early. Kluber is sharp, they scratch a couple back, but the Tribe tacks on a couple more in the 7th and they’re never effectively in it, but not embarrassed either.

9.) CC doesn’t have it, Gray doesn’t get in in time, and it’s essentially over by the 5th.

8.) Like Boston vs. Houston, Yanks managed to hold a lead through the middle innings, but cough it up and lose by a couple late.

7.) CC is sharp, but Cleveland scratches out one thin run on a bloop, a steal, a passed ball and a two-out RBI single from like, Urshela. Yanks keep threatening but can never push one across.

6.) CC is sharp, but gives up that same run to an Urshela (or Greg Allen or someone) bomb. Yanks can’t force the tie.

5.) Yankees build a comfortable-to-big lead, but give it all back when Joe is slow to get the hook or, for some reason, relieves Betances with Garcia.

4.) Yankees holding slim lead, Chapman gives it up in a walk-off bomb.

3.) Yankees holding slim lead, Chapman gives it up in Game 7 2001 re-enactment.

2.) Game 2 redux.

1.) Sanchez, Judge and Severino all crash into each other on a pop fly to shallow center and suffer simultaneous career-ending injuries and when questioned why Joe had Severino playing left he mumbles something about “keeping him sharp for the ALCS.”

Can declining ratings be pinned on a manager??

After tomorrow’s Globe, the US soccer team loss will even be pinned on Farrell.

So, in a word - yes.

He under achieved in extra inning games.

Speaking of ratings, what about a female manager? Are we to believe that in a country of over 300 million people that there isn’t one qualified woman for the job? And if it provided a ratings boost…

Not surprising they keep rotating through managers - Dombrowski is their third GM in as many years. When Theo left they canned Tito, Cherington/ownership brought in Valentine, which was an epic failure so they panic-moved into Farrell. Now since Cherington is gone Dombrowski wants his own guy.

The Red Sox are experts at minimizing their luck in regards to talent acquisition. The talent that has rotated through that system should have been a dynasty to rival any in recent memory, instead they’ve fluked into some WS wins but otherwise have been incredibly inconsistent, including a lot of embarrassing last-place finishes and regular season collapses.

There’s something to be said for consistency, and we’re seeing the Yankees reap the rewards of that.

Not sure if I’d expect CC to go 5.  3, 4 max for CC (but out at first sign of trouble) and then 5-6 innings out of Green/Kahnle/Robertson/Chapman should be doable.

For once I actually agree with most of this article by Cameron

Starting CC Sabathia Tonight is Perfectly Reasonable

[19] Do you mean consistency of managers, or season standings? The Yankees have had only two managers in the last twenty years. Has any other team done that? Maybe the Angels (I don’t remember the murky time before Scioscia), and I don’t want their results.

[22] To make me cry.

That’s a bad reason.

One more reason not to have soccer! (As if one were needed)

Indians have dropped to -200/Yanks +175,  Juice is now to the under (7.5, -115). Which means a lot of Cleveland/Under money has come in in hte last day, but not so much they’ve needed to entice more bettors back to the Yankees.

[16] Everybody wins and gets ice cream for participating !

[18] I’m sure there is one qualified, so long as having played professional baseball isn’t considered a qualification.

And girls can now join the Boy Scouts. No word from the Girl Scouts.

Same as Tuesday 1-6. Hixie 7th, El, Todd.

My suggested ending - game winning run scoring on ellsbury bases loaded pinch hit catchers interference

I am hoping the Yankees’ next manager, whenever it is, will be their first manager who is a person of color.

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