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Thursday, February 23, 2017

NY Post: The 5-step plan for Yankees to get rid of Jacoby Ellsbury

TAMPA — Let’s start this discussion by not being silly: The endgame arrives when Jacoby Ellsbury gets traded.

No road map that will get the $153 million center fielder a plaque in Monument Park exists. The goal should be to turn Ellsbury — who addressed the media for the first time in 2017 Wednesday at George M. Steinbrenner Field after staying home for the birth of his second child — into his 2013-14 winter classmate Brian McCann: an underwhelming but not awful acquisition who departed — with financial assistance from the Yankees, in return for a couple of interesting pieces — to make room for a more exciting youngster.

Ellsbury makes more money than McCann, he doesn’t possess anywhere as good a clubhouse reputation and he plays a less valuable position. Nevertheless, with young outfielders Dustin Fowler and Clint Frazier plus athletes like Jorge Mateo and Tyler Wade on the horizon, Ellsbury does no good clogging a spot as the Yankees try to construct another perennial contender, especially with the superior Brett Gardner (under team control through 2019) around to help and free-agent-to-be Bryce Harper available for ’19 as well.

The Yankees created this hurdle for themselves when they signed Ellsbury three-plus years ago to a deal that had most baseball folks, including Ellsbury’s previous employers in Boston, raising their eyebrows in disbelief. Now that hurdle must be leapt.

I swear I did not write this article, although I endorse it completely.

It’s not happening though.

Here’s the question.  How much value do teams think Ellsbury has remaining over the next four years of his contract compared to the $89,571,428.60 he is owed (including the $5M buyout of his 2021 team option)?

If Ellsbury hits his 2017 baseline CAIRO projection, here’s how CAIRO projects him over the next four seasons.

 Baseline Age  PA AB  R H  2B 3B  HR RBI  SB CS  BB SO  GDP HBP  avg obp  slg br  raa oWAR
 2017  33  592  530   70  139  23  4  11  69   23  7  47  93  9  4   .262  .320  .383  65  -5   1.7 
 2018  34  563  504   64  128  21  3  11  64   21  7  43  91  9  4   .254  .311  .371  59  -8   1.2 
 2019  35  534  478   59  118  19  3  10  59   19  7  40  89  9  4   .246  .301  .360  52  -11   0.8 
 2020  36  508  454   55  109  18  3  9  54   18  6  36  87  9  3   .239  .293  .349  47  -14   0.4 

Is 4.1 oWAR worth $90M or so?  Probably not.  He now projects as an average CF, and I suppose you can assume he adds some base running value similar to what he has done as a Yankee over the last three seasons, in the area of three runs a year.  So let’s say he will be worth something like six wins over the rest of his dreadful contract.  How much is it worth?  $40M?  $50M?  Probably not more than that.  So figure the Yankees will have to eat at least $40M in any trade.

For the heck of it, if he somehow manages to hit his 65% forecast this year his outlook changes appreciably.

 65%   Age PA  AB R  H 2B  3B HR  RBI SB  CS BB  SO GDP  HBP avg  obp slg  br raa  oWAR
 2017  33  614  557   78  152  26  5  14  77   26  6  53  92  8  5   .273  .341  .412  78  5   2.8 
 2018  34  584  529   72  140  24  5  13  71   24  6  48  90  8  5   .265  .331  .399  70  1   2.2 
 2019  35  555  502   66  129  22  4  12  65   22  6  45  88  8  5   .257  .322  .387  63  -3   1.7 
 2020  36  527  477   61  119  20  4  11  60   21  6  41  87  8  5   .249  .312  .376  57  -6   1.3 

Now you could argue he would project to be worth maybe six wins from 2018-2020 and maybe you only have to eat $20-30M to trade him.  And you get maybe three wins out of him in 2017 as well.

But I don’t think that’s particularly likely to happen.  And I think the Yankees are going to be stuck with Ellsbury for the next FOUR YEARS…

--Posted at 10:44 am by SG / 55 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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Or. OR. Someone, not gonna name names here, but SOMEONE, could roll Ellsbury up in a rug and toss him into the East River.

If only there were someone here with motive and means.

If.

Only.

The only realistic option would be to trade Ellsbury, while continuing to pay most of his salary.  That would give a small amount of salary relief while opening up a spot for an up and coming youngster.  IMHO it’s too soon to do that.  None of hte youngsters are proved big league outfielders.

Cronin lives in NY, and I bet his wife made him get rugs.

Shushssssss!!

Options for Smellsbury:

1) DFA him & continue paying his contract
2) Release him & continue paying his contract
3) Trade him & continue paying his contract
4) Offer him a Russian ambassadorship to just about anywhere

“4) Offer him a Russian ambassadorship to just about anywhere”

Seeeee? Now aren’t we all glad our government is a subdivision of the Russian’s? The Steinbrenners must know Trump right? If they cannot convince a easily influenceable halfwit like him the Yankees in first place is necessary to MAGA they can’t really be trying.

None of hte youngsters are proved big league outfielders.

And none of them will every get a chance to prove themselves if there is an albatross blocking their chances.

In other organizations, young players get a chance.  Its rarer with the Yankees, but its nice that they are moving in that direction finally.  For example, if you look at Cano’s minor league progress before 2005, nothing was jumping out saying “future HOFer” even though Cano was well regarded.  He hit well in a small sample in AAA in 2005, but had Tony Womack been even marginally effective, who knows what would have happened with Cano? Thankfully, he got his shot.  Some of the prospects we have are well regarded - give them a shot and see what happens.

Since the Ellsbury problem isn’t going to be solved. The fact that the Yankees were unable to find much interest in Gardner this winter is problematic.

There must be an organization that values catcher’s interference enough to think he’s worth 20M/year, right? Unless he’s already playing for that organization.

Mitchell runs it to 0-1 one the first pitch of ST. Slot him in as the No. 4 right now.

Well, friends. I am really excited. Baseball is back. What a great day.

Uno, dos, tres for Mitchell. Screw it, slot him as the No. 2.

Mitchell looked solid in the first inning, sitting around 94. His curve looked like a real weapon when he buried it, but a bit loopy when it was in the zone.

That was funny. The graphic came up congratulating Didi on his 21st home run of the season. Clearly an automatic graphic that picked up from where he left off last season with 20 HRs.

[14] Apparently it’s spring training for the producers too.

Glimmer Man, where you at?

Castro looks like he’s in mid-season form.

Best restaurant in New York City huh Meredith?

If Judge keeps taking cuts like that at low stuff it’s going to be a long goddamn season.

I was watching at work on computer and then screen went dark and “due to rights restrictions, this program is currently unavailable.” What gives?

Blackout thing in the NY market? Everything is smooth sailing on the west coast.

[21] Fine here in the tundra of the midwest.

And for some reason Time Warner “Spectrum” will let me watch some shows on my work computer but not Yankees on either YES or MLB TV, however there is a great Mod Squad episode where Link saves Julie’s ass.

What the hell is Adam doing during all this?

If Judge keeps taking cuts like that at high stuff, it’s going to be an awesome goddamn season.

Wow, he smoked that.

Judge, not content to wait for science to explore those seven new planets, just hit a baseball to one of them.

24 Being extremely sensitive.

[28] This checks out.

Fowler, Torres, Andujar and Frazier in.

Judge has to be one of the most impervious players to projection I’ve ever seen… literally every outcome feels possible. Jack Curry says he’s trying to keep his back hip “more athletic” as to not lock up his front side. Even though he struck-out in his first AB, it was a pretty good AB… Obviously he just hit one out of orbit.

But IF he can be productive, and Holliday has another .800 .OPS in the tank, this should be an above-average offense.

BTW… isn’t Ruben Tejada a bit of a sleeper to make the roster due to his ability to play SS?

Andujar triples and scores on an error… he has way more of a sinewy swing than I realized. (looks very athletic at the plate)

Fraz-y, or Frazier-y?

Obviously Frazee in homage to Harry Frazee.

DFA Sanchez. Get Higashioka in there.

Higgy + for Kershaw.

I really want Andujar to be Andouille in the postgame presser.

Double for Andujar. Triple for Frazier. Go 2019 Yankees!

Joe Maddon is wondering why Girardi doesn’t have Chapman coming in right now.

Saw the Real Sports segment on Maddon and he seemed like a pretty cool guy.  Too cool for the NYY for sure.

31) One guy I have never heard comparisons to relating to Judge is Frank Thomas.  Wasn’t he about 6ft6 in?  I believe he ended up making HOF and about 500+ and a .300 lifetime avg.  He must have had some issues to overcome due to size and unlike Kingman he was a complete hitter as I recall. He wasn’t nearly as athletic in field that Judge is or as fast.  It’s just too soon to project but I don’t want to see him sent back down to AAA.  Keep Higgy too, guy has found something.  It’s good to finally get to games rather than continue the all winter long debates.  Now we can see day by day rather than speculate what a guy can do.

You would have to glue two Aaron Judges together to make one Frank Thomas. Hurt wasn’t Big for nothin’.

At age 24, Frank Thomas had a .975 OPS and finished 8th in MVP voting. He walked much more than he struck out and tied for the AL lead in walks. He was even better age 23, when he finished 3rd in voting.

At age 24, Aaron Judge had a .608 OPS in 27 games (.854 OPS in AAA), and struck out almost 5x as much as he walked.

I don’t think Judge will be nearly as good as even Richie Sexson or Adam Dunn, both of whom were also good major league hitters by the time they were 24. (Though they did also strike out a ton.)

[43]  While I agree with you, Spring Training is the time to dream.

C’mon! Where’s all the excitement for them speeding up the game. Auto-IBB’s baby! Hmmm… One IBB every 2.6 games, yep, 2 hour games are back.

Gleyber with a double and a run scored in his first AB.  Just like Arizona.

The good thing about Judge is that he is an above average RF and that’s why comparing him to other tall guys is not fair to him. He could be a .800 OPS hitter while being a 3-4 WAR player during his prime defensive years which are going to be the next 6 years.

BTW… isn’t Ruben Tejada a bit of a sleeper to make the roster due to his ability to play SS?

What can he do that Torreyes can’t do?

Torres with 2 doubles, and scored from second on a wild pitch.

48. More experience sitting on the bench and slamming down some Gatorade.

Ah, spring training, and a revival of my teeth-gnashing hatred for Waldling.  It drives me nuts the way they act affronted by saying the names of players they’ve never heard of.  Suzy’s the one one who does the human interest stuff—maybe she could offer interesting tidbits instead of sighing heavily every time a minor leaguer comes in?

Bob Page was like that when he hosted MSG Sports Desk back when the Yankees were on MSG. He always annoyed me whenever the Yankees lost a game to a rookie, he would say the rookie’s name like it was just some nonsense word that he had just seen for the first time. “The Yankees lost to…James…Baldwin?”

I wouldn’t complain if Torres was up in August and Castro was playing for the Reds or some other basement NL team (along with Ellsbury).

[51-52] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hF89aQhAOKI

[53] I am on record as saying that we will see Torres this summer.

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