What do you mean “if?”

In our discussion of Gardner’s abstract trade value I meant to ask if Granderson should be reprojected with his performance based on his record vs RHP plus a typical split value vs LHP.

Of course I’ll take the over on Gardner hitting 0.313 against LHP, but a platoon sounds like the best one could expect to achieve given the politics.  Though Jeter’s not going to hit 9th, is he?  If so that sort of messes up the rest of the lineup.

In our discussion of Gardner’s abstract trade value I meant to ask if Granderson should be reprojected with his performance based on his record vs RHP plus a typical split value vs LHP.

So use his actual projection vs. RHP and replace his projection vs. LHP with what a typical left-handed hitter would do vs. LHP if he projected the same way as Granderson does vs. RHP?

Vs. LHP: 162 PA, .224/.294/.428, .310 wOBA
VS. RHP: 419 PA, .271/.355/.516, .374 wOBA

Those are Granderson’s current split projections.  Average wOBA platoon split is about .025 for LHB vs. LHP, so that’d put Granderson around .349 instead of .310 vs. LHP.  So as currently projected Granderson’s around a .356 wOBA hitter overall, but with the average LH platoon split he’d be around a .367 wOBA hitter.  That’s a difference of about 5 runs over a full season.

I still think there’s a decent chance come August that Jeter won’t be leading off vs. righties.  Once he gets his 3000 hits and if he’s still OPS’ing under .700, it’s hard to justify.  In that case, it’s hard to move him to 2nd, b/c you’re not going to slide Granderson (or Cano) into the 6th/7th spots in the lineup.  So at that point, where in the bottom 3 does Jeter hit?  And the answer of course is an unhelpful “it depends”.

If Gardner is out against a righty for whatever reason, Jeter leads off.
If Granderson is out for whatever reason, Jeter hits 2nd.

If both those guys are in, Jeter hits ahead of Nunez/Pena, Cervelli, Jones, but no one else.  So a smattering of 7th, 8th, and 9th.

Am I being overly optimistic?  Possibly.  But it’s starting to get enough traction that I think something will happen.

One question I just thought of, is there a difference in average leverage index by batting order?  I could see hitters 2-3-4-5 having slightly higher leverage index since there’s more likely to be someone one base, but does leadoff not follow that since they’re more likely to be hitting with the bases empty?

Anyone seen anything like this?

[2] “[A] platoon sounds like the best one could expect to achieve given the politics.”

bingo

Anyone seen anything like this?

I’d imagine that you’ll see higher leverage situations higher up in the order since they get more PA in general, which probably means more PA late in games where the outcome is more uncertain.  I think in The Book they said the 2 slot was where your best hitter should hit. 

Since most teams have batted their worst hitters ninth, as you say, the leadoff slot likely comes up less frequently in higher leverage situations since it should typically follow worse hitters.

In the specific case of the Yankees that may not apply, if Martin/Gardner are getting on base more frequently than the typical 8/9 types.

[5] Well it wouldn’t exactly be leverage right?  It would be more run-expectancy, or an average run-expectancy for when each position came to bat, right?  Which is probably what they did in The Book on the chapter on lineup-optimization (I’ve really got to get around to reading that), though I don’t know for sure.

“[...] that’d put Granderson around .349 instead of .310 vs. LHP.  So as currently projected Granderson’s around a .356 wOBA hitter overall, but with the average LH platoon split he’d be around a .367 wOBA hitter.  That’s a difference of about 5 runs over a full season.”

Interesting, thanks.  Half a WAR doesn’t seem like much in context for that 0.31->0.35.  Presumably he could play more in that scenario since there never be a reason to sit him against a LHP.

[8] - Run expectancy is part of leverage.  Leverage is the combination of score and run-expectancy.  For any given score, having a higher chance to score more runs in a PA is going to increase the leverage index.

Half a WAR doesn’t seem like much in context for that 0.31->0.35.  Presumably he could play more in that scenario since there never be a reason to sit him against a LHP.

True, that half win is based on 162 PA and we can assume that total’s suppressed since he probably wasn’t played as frequently against lefties as he’d be if he was better.  Might add another 2-3 runs to that 5.

You shouldn’t lose your spot in the lineup due to injury or not being as good as someone else.  That would be like stealing with a 10 run lead.

[10] Well, yes.  But, when you’re trying to construct an optimal lineup, you wouldn’t know the score.  You CAN however, use what you know of the players in question (and a powerful computer) to run through a bunch of probabilities to determine maximum run expectancy.  And of course if you have a higher run expectancy, you can reduce leverage.  That is, by scoring a lot of runs early in the game, you won’t have as many high leverage situations later in the game.

I posted part one of Pinstripe Alley’s interview with Slade Heathcott’s mother the other day.  Not sure if anyone read it, but if you’re waiting for part 2…

The Red Sox were one of the teams that were wanting Slade, but we were hoping for the Yankees. We heard so many good things about them, how good the organization was, we really felt like that was going to be the best fit for Slade, that was going to be a good, strong fit for him. I’m so glad he went to the Yankees because they are absolutely amazing, they have some of the best people, they’re great up there. I love them all to death, you walk in there they know you all by your first name, know who you are, always say hello, everyone acknowledges you. They have good concern, they take care of their boys, and I’m really glad he went to them. That was a true blessing, him going to the Yankees. They’ve definitely done a good job with him.

[12] count the rings.

[13] - Right.  I’m just saying that run expectancy is included in leverage index on average.  You wouldn’t need to do any sort of Markov-chaining for this, I would just look at historical LI broken down by batting order.  That would probably be somewhat context driven, ie current lineup construction has an impact on LI by batting order, but we’re talking marginal changes, so it’s probably fine to use that as a baseline.

[16] Okay, I think we both understand each other.  I don’t necessarily agree that leverage is important for batting order, but…there are worse ways to doing it, and it would likely still lead you to the same or a similar conclusion as other methods.  Legacy to the organization for example, would lead you to a poor lineup.

[14]  Count the rings.

Legacy to the organization for example, would lead you to a poor lineup.

Count the rings.

[12],[18] Number of rings is just a counting stat.  I prefer rings over replacement franchise.

Ring Counting apparently is a time consuming process.

Girardi sort of maybe likes him some David Robertson, kind of (LoHud):

“He’s just got a lot of confidence in what he does,” Joe Girardi said. “And he has very good command, usually, of two pitches. And he’s mixed in a changeup a few times, which I think has been effective for him. It’s not something he uses a whole lot. He has that late life on the fastball, and it’s tough on hitters.”

Now I’ve got an ad for Ann Coulter and an add for golf something or other.  Come back Aaron Rowand memorabilia!

I wonder if Girardi knows about Robertson’s release point being abnormally close to the plate.

[24] I wonder whether the Yankees employ someone to keep up with freely available analysis on the net and in print.  I’d hope that such information would get reported to Cashman, who would relay it to Girardi.  But then, different US intelligence branches didn’t share information before 2001.

[25] Explains the absence of both Don and MC in VA.

That is, by scoring a lot of runs early in the game, you won’t have as many high leverage situations later in the game.

 
Why is that, Mike?  I mean, in the game you’d be winning 2-1 in the late innings, maybe you’re ahead 4-1 and there’s less leverage.  But in the game you’d be losing 2-0, perhaps you’re tied or up 3-2, giving you a higher leverage situation.

In short, why wouldn’t this more or less break even?

[25]  Cashman reads NoMaas…

Jeter is never going to reach those HIGH numbers against right handed pitching!

Jeter is never going to reach those HIGH numbers against right handed pitching!

That’s not an estimated final end of year stat line. It’s a going-forward projection.  So he’s not really expected to reach anything. 

You’d have to add that projection to whatever he’s done so far if you’re trying to get an estimated final line.  So his overall final line would be the .260/.324/.324 he’s hit so far added to the .283/.353/.388 he’s projected to hit going forward, which puts him around .272/.339/.358.

[27]  True, that’s a good point.  However, it still goes back to maximizing your run scoring.  I just don’t see how you want to build a lineup to maximize it for high leverage situations that may or may not exist.

Or I guess another way…if you maximize run scoring some of your high-leverage situations will become low-leverage because now you’re ahead by more.  The low-leverage that become high leverage are games you now have a chance to win, that you didn’t before.  If you want a better hitter up at that point…pinch hit.

which puts him around .272/.339/.358.

Kinda sad that we’d rejoice if his EOY line against righties had a .697 OPS…

SG…..283/.353/.388 for the rest of this year is not happening!  He’s a .208 hitter in his 240 non leading off the game pa.