Yeah, it didn’t look great when he made that catch.  He managed it better than Matsui did, at least…

Yeah, it definitely didn’t bend in a way you like to see a wrist bending.

I didn’t get into the platoon thing with Jones and Ibanez.  A 40 PA Jones vs. LHP and 60 PA Ibanez vs. RHP platoon would have a wOBA of about 0.355, which would be worth about two runs more than Gardner vs. all pitching.  So the offense might cut into the defensive gap a fair bit.

But wouldn’t Ibanez have been playing in most of those games anyway? At least against RHP. Shouldn’t the offensive comparison include the hitter added to the lineup to replace Gardner?

Shouldn’t the offensive comparison include the hitter added to the lineup to replace Gardner?

Good point. I guess that it’d be some combination of Nunez and Chavez then, with Rodriguez moving into the DH spot more often.  I don’t have CAIRO in front of me to re-figure that out, but I can do it later today or tomorrow.

[3] - this. I’d guess Nunez is the extra bat against RHP with an occasional Chavez ( he just can’t play full time). Either A-rod will move to DH and Ibanez to The OF or Nunez to the OF. 

Also you shouldn’t count Gardners defense or Jones offense against LHP since Jones would be getting most of those starts anyway.

Edit:
Stupid slow typing on my phone.  But if Nunez can play even an average LF (and he should given his tools but you can say the same thing about SS) they would probably only lose a run or two a month. I’d love to see what he can do in LF. The idea of Nunez as a super utility player is interesting.

Really, it turns out to be that you’re replacing n PA of Gardner with n PA of Eric Chavez, most likely, where n are PA vs. RHP.  If Ibanez plays LF vs. RHP, then you need a DH.  That could be Chavez, or A-Rod with Chavez at third.  Figure Nunez would probably play a fair amount vs. LHP whether Gardner was healthy or not.

So the most relevant #s are Gardner’s and Chavez’s projections vs. RHP.  I have that as a .335 wOBA for TSBG and a .301 wOBA for Chavez.  That’s probably about a 1 run down grade over 60-70 PA.  You still have the defensive hit of replacing Gardner with Druwbanunez, but Chavez at 3B might be a slight uptick defensively (although A-Rod has looked great at third so far this year).

Sure, when you lose your starting LF, call up a right-handed relief specialist.

The only OF they have on the 40-man are Melky Mesa and Zoilo Amonte.  Neither have exactly torched AA yet.  I also noticed though that they didn’t play Brandon Laird in AAA last night.  My guess is that Eppley was just brought up to fill the roster spot for now.  They want to get a better idea of the extent of Gardner’s injury, and decide if they want to call up Laird for a couple of weeks to be an extra bat/5th OF, or make a 40-man roster move and Dickerson or Dewayne Wise onto the 40 man.

My guess is that Eppley was just brought up to fill the roster spot for now.  They want to get a better idea of the extent of Gardner’s injury, and decide if they want to call up Laird for a couple of weeks to be an extra bat/5th OF, or make a 40-man roster move and Dickerson or Dewayne Wise onto the 40 man.

I think they are bringing Eppley up because their starters aren’t giving them ANY length at all so far and they want an extra arm out of the pen to help out.  They have enough on the team already to cover the loss of an OFer so help out until the starters get going.

Who’s going to bat second leadoff?

It isn’t just length. It would be one thing if they were going all Hughesey on us and taking 30 pitches per inning, and running out of pitch count in the fourth.

They’re doing that but also giving up runs early, digging a deep hole that the offense can’t keep up with. It’s like we got rid of AJ, and like that monster dog thing in Hellboy that divides itself when you kill it, now we’ve got 5 AJ’s on our hands.

I know Quality Start isn’t useful from a projection/valuation standpoint, but it does describe what’s happening in this rotation. We’re not getting QS’s, and giving up 4-5 runs early is why, moreso than running out of gas in the 6th (though that happened to Nova).

[10] You know it’s a going to be a good day when you can work in a Hellboy reference.

Quality starts are a very good stat IMO.

[12] - My biggest gripe with QS is that 6 IP 3 runs is a QS but 8 or 9 IP 4 runs isn’t.

I think Jones is pretty bad.  I didn’t like what I saw yesterday at all.

Also, I never seem to catch the plays—they always happen when I’m listening to the radio feed—but every time Waldling says Grandy made a “great catch” I wonder if it’s because he took a bad route.  How does he look?

[14] The thing I’ve been noticing about Grandy isn’t so much bad routes - it’s hard to see because the TV doesn’t show what he does at contact. But I see a fair few plays he makes running back, and also a fair few that are deep hit balls that get over their heads (happing to all fields, though Gardner is getting to a lot more short flies).

So I have to wonder if their alignment isn’t too shallow ?

If Ibanez plays LF vs. RHP, then you need a DH.  That could be Chavez, or A-Rod with Chavez at third. 

Or they could call up Jack Cust.

Don’t give me the head of Freddy Garcia on a plate.

Instead, give Calzone the head of Freddy Garcia on a plate.

Or they could call up Jack Cust.

I’m not sure they want to be making a 40 man roster move yet, especially for a short-term stop-gap.

I think they are bringing Eppley up because their starters aren’t giving them ANY length at all

That, too.  So there are a few dynamics that will affect whether/when they call up another OF.

Quality starts are a very good stat IMO.

I agree.

My biggest gripe with QS is that 6 IP 3 runs is a QS but 8 or 9 IP 4 runs isn’t.

Also agree.  I wonder if a better defintion of QS might be at least 6IP, and allow no more than half the runs as IP?  The main question of course, is what that will do to beer sales?

I’m not sure they want to be making a 40 man roster move yet, especially for a short-term stop-gap.

Yeah, exactly.  If Gardner is out for a couple of weeks they’ll mix-and-match with who is on the 25 man roster.  If it looks like he’s going to be out for a month or more, they may add a player to the 40 man.

I think it’s panic time.  Who’s with me?

I don’t know if QS is a very good stat, but it’s certainly a useful quick and dirty stat. And the definietion needs to be adjusted for more IP, 4 runs over 9 innings is a better rate performance than 3 over 6 and even if the game is lost, is probably more valuable to a team as it allows them to save the BP for a night.

[20] I’ve been there since yesterday, wondering where the rest of you were.

[14] and [15]  Fangraphs has Granderson at -3 fielding runs in CF this year, and I buy it.  I haven’t seen every game, but he just doesn’t seem to be close to a lot of balls over his head, while I’ve also seen what I thought was a catchable ball drop in front of him.  I’d love to see play-by-play fielding metrics.

With wrist injuries that’s never a sure thing though.

I didn’t see the game.  Is it Gardner’s wrist or his elbow?

[22] It feels like coming home.

I was under the impressions we’ve been in panic mode since 2010.

I think it’s panic time.  Who’s with me?

Wait about four hours.

[23] I’ve seen Granderson make 1 or 2 really nice plays as well.  One in particular over by the wall in Death Valley.

Also, sounds like it’s actually his elbow.  Watching the play, I assumed wrist.

[26] Sounds about right.

I didn’t see the game.  Is it Gardner’s wrist or his elbow?

They’re saying elbow, but on the play where he got hurt I thought it looked more like a wrist thing. I guess elbow makes a slightly better prognosis for a position player.

It has been 896 days, 10 hours, 23 minutes, and 42 seconds since we entered Panic Mode.

[29] Exactly.

Don’t worry guys. We now have Nelson Figueroa.

I think it’s panic time.  Who’s with me?

Every time I want to panic I think how much better the season would feel right now if Mo didn’t blow opening day.  Sitting in first place at 7-5 would make a world of difference right now but it’s only one game.  And then I don’t panic.

And then I don’t panic.

Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens…

[32] Good thought.  I think about the fact that they’ve had a LOT worse 12 game stretches over the past 16 seasons, and made the post season in all but one.  And rarely have they had pitchers of the quality of Pettitte and Pineda likely to be joining the team in the near term in that time.

SG, without knowing precisely what the danger is of Gardner being out, would you say it’s time for your readers to crack each other’s heads open and feast on the goo inside?

[35] How would Gardner impact the norm?

[35] Yes I would Kent…..

Colon threw 38 straight strikes? That’s nothing, Hughes once threw 40 straight. They were all foul balls to the same batter. He eventually walked him.

[34] - Exactly.  If they offense and starting pitching has been this poor and they are still not that bad off and major help is on the way, then things aren’t that bad.

[39] And the offense actually hasn’t been bad at all.  Averaging over 5 runs per game is plenty.  It’s really the starting pitching.  The offense *seems* worse because they aren’t hitting better situationally (which will likely even out by the end of the year) AND they’re losing close games.  I still like this team to win 90+ games.

http://blog.tstc.org/2012/04/19/while-yankee-stadium-garages-may-default-transit-thrives/

The bullpen has been great, too.

[21] Well, if you want to know whether 6/3 or 9/4 is more valuable, you’ve got RSA, or WPA.  QS is just an either-or stat.  If anyone is saying two pitchers who both have 32 starts - one with 230IP/3.5 RA the other 192IP/4.5 RA - are equal since they both have 22QS in that timeframe…probably won’t understand/agree with the concept of WAR anyway.

I do wonder if any empirical studies have been done to match pitchers with similar IP/RA (so should be similar WAR) but a large gap in their QS, how that affects the team’s record in those games.  Potentially too many variables to control for…

[42] No one’s been complaining about the bullpen.  I think that’s all the proof we need that this bullpen is one of the best ever.

[32] Yes, every time I need to be calmed down, I think about Mo blowing saves. Thanks, that helps.

[43] IIRCC when the Yankees signed Burnett, SG concluded that his inconsistency was a good thing, because when the starts evened out, the average was good and with the Yankees offense, they would be almost guaranteed wins when he was on and be able to win some of his disaster by outslugging the other team. AJ didn’t work out to well, but I would imagine that the conclusion is still valid.

[45] Whenever I think of Mo blowing saves I automatically reach for whiskey…so I get calmed down in a hurry.

[46] Dave Cameron in a chat (yesterday?) shorthand answered that the consistent starter is the better bet, so…IDK.  The stuff I’ve read in the past (I don’t precisely recall SG’s AJ post) seemed more of a theoretical nature than empirical.  I suppose you could do a Diamond Mind sim with various teams as well.  Team with good offense/good bullpen, good offense/bad bullpen, etc.  Plug both the consistent and inconsistent starters in, and get results for each.

Inconsistent was better but the difference was small.  It wasn’t when A.J. was first signed though, maybe it was his 2011 projection post.

[46] Actually, my tiny crocodile sized brainlet thinks QS tells you more than any average-type stat, because it gives you a count of what’s acceptable. An average can be skewed by a non-normal distribution, with a bunch of stinkers offset by a handful or real gems. All other things being equal, I’d rather get 6-7 QS’s out of 10 outings than 4 gems, 4 stinkers, and the rest being meh appearances (non-QS, but non-stinkers - say 4-5 runs in 6 IP).

% of QS appearances would be useful, maybe.

Take two starters who give up an average of 3 runs a game.  One gives up 3 runs every single game, no more, no less.  Standard deviation of 0.  If his team scores four runs a game, their expected win total would be 19.20.  Another pitcher on the same team also gives up an average of 3 runs a game, but with a standard deviation of 1.4.  Their expected win total in those games would be 19.50.

Increasing team runs scored to 5 per game shrinks the difference slightly (22.06 vs. 22.23), but inconsistency is still preferable.  If you make the team a 2 run/game team then the gap gets pretty big (9.23 vs. 10.85)

% of QS appearances would be useful, maybe.

I think Baseball Prospectus tracks that, and they also track blown quality starts, which I think are defined as games where the pitcher met the qualifications for a quality start but was then left in too long by the manager and/or had his bullpen allow his runners to score to cost him the QS.  I like that stat too.

I do think I’d like to see a broader definition that included 8 IP, 4 R, but frankly we don’t have to be slavish to what other sites decide to record.  The data is out there for anyone who wants to develop their own stats to do so.

So get cracking.

where the pitcher met the qualifications for a quality start but was then left in too long by the manager

So, the Binder Quotient ?