The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Friday, November 9, 2012

NY Post: Don’t expect Cano to give Yankees hometown discount

Boras said in the past week he has spoken to both Yankees president Randy Levine and general manager Brian Cashman, but his strong inclination is Cano will play out this contract before any serious negotiations with the Yankees ensue.

Boras’ rhetoric is already being honed. He is not going to lower his asking price based on a Yankees objective to go under the $189 million threshold; a tactic he has made publicly clear he feels is wrongheaded for a franchise he believes should use its financial advantages to the fullest.

Boras also has pointed out that franchise values and coffers have swelled as income streams have soared. His message is the contracts of the best players should climb equally.

You can guarantee Boras will say that a superb two-way middle infielder such as Cano should be paid more than first basemen such as Prince Fielder (nine years, $214 million) and Joey Votto (10 years, $225 million).

The Yankees should just counter all of Boras’s rhetoric with one word.  A-Rod.

Neither the Mets nor Yankees — both in need of outfield help — has yet to express interest in Melky Cabrera. At least five teams have.

Those five teams should be banned from baseball.

--Posted at 12:06 pm by SG / 42 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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If Cano is getting anything close to 9 years $214M, just let him walk, take the pick and rebuild.

Soooo…..83 wins?

Boras can also trumpet Robbie’s record-setting post-season… wait…

I will always side with baseball players in getting the most money they can. Some are worth it, some aren’t.  I just want a competent front office that can determine who is and who isn’t.

I don’t think $22 million per year is unreasonable. I’d just want to keep it in single digits, years-wise.

I would balk at him getting $25 million, though, unless the years were short (which they will never be, so that’s basically not even an option).

[5] I basically agree.  Last three years he’s been worth 6.6, 5.7, and 7.8 fWAR, and 7.8, 5.2, and 8.2 bWAR.  He’s still in the prime of his career, and based on normal aging patterns - and looking at some similarly offensively gifted 2B of recent years - it would not be at all surprising if he were to put up somthing like 30-35 cumulative WAR over the next 5 seasons.  The issue is after those 5 years…most - not all but most - 2B decline rapidly after that (some even in that age 34 season).  Some are done, some put up a few more seasons of above average play.  The ones who do better than a last gasp had a position change at some point.

So…30 WAR over 5 years is probably worth something like $180M.  So from an old fashioned overpay up front to try to come out even on the end, the Yankees could probably do something like an 8/22 deal and come out even.  However, there’s also the potential they have a black hole on the team the last 3 years of the deal, potentially in a more restrictive salary environment (league or self imposed).  Still…I don’t think I would get upset if they did something like that.  He’s their one truly elite player on the offensive side of the ball right now, they won’t likely get a better one in FA any time soon, he won’t fetch enough in a trade to get such a player, and the ones on the farm, both 1) are 2-3 years away from scratching the surface of elite 2) are still only prospects with uncertainity.

However, yeah there are limits.  If you start getting into 10/250 or something he’s need to play at a high level for at least 7 or 8 years to get equal value, plus there’s a good chance of having 5 years of a black hole.  And at some point, even that extra $3M a year could be the difference between keeping another solid player or not.  So…something like 5/115 or 6/132 I think would be nice.  Something like 8/168 would be acceptable I think but tough.  Getting more than that…not worth it.

The better question is why does the organization always wait to extend players creating the overpay situations.  You don’t see the Rays wait with Longoria, Tigers with Verlander and a very long list of paying before they get so close. . Yanks did it with Williams, Jeter, Posada.  Also they knew Cano was a special talent before 2009.  Why didn’t they offer him a 7 yr at that point and before he cuddled up with Boras?

The Yankees already signed a team-friendly deal with Cano once, so I don’t think it’s fair to complain that they didn’t do it.  Actually, it’s right there in the linked article.

I am with Brian and Mike.  $22M per is fine.  10 years, not so much.  And I’m not sure we want to use typical aging patters for a second baseman.

5 years, $110M is my ideal contract, but it’s tough to see him signing for that.  6 years, $132M would be ok.  If he wants more than that I’d let him walk.  He’s probably already had his best seasons and there’s no sense committing to him past age 36.  You just compound the stupidity of the A-Rod signing by doing that.

[7] I think it’s prettty clear that the Yankees need to throw away their policy of letting everyone hit free agency.

[9] Well, like SG mentioned, they didn’t for Cano.  And they tried to sign Martin to an extension before settling on 1 year last year.  Personally, I wouldn’t have been surprised if they had tried to sign Gardner this off-season, but due to his injury they want to see how he rebounds.

I think they 100% realize that if they have special young talent they need to lock it up before reaching FA.  One of the issues they have had is, they haven’t had much special young talent.  Cano fits that bill and they did it before, and sounds like they’re trying to do it again.  I think it’s more a guideline than a policy…and makes 100% for players over the age of 30.

It’s not just that they didn’t have special young talent.  They also didn’t really care about the bottom line.  Winning was more important than meeting a budget, and they’d rather have the flexibility to upgrade on a position than be locked into a long-term commitment to someone who may not be as good as someone you could get.

And George Steinbrenner always seemed to prefer people from outside the organization to people within it.  They could have signed Jeter and Bernie sooner and cheaper but they didn’t and it surely cost them millions.

The new CBA makes it more imperative that they change that mindset.  I think they’re trying to do that now.  We’ll have to see how well it works.  It’s not etched in stone, I don’t think.

That Fielder contract has got to be the minimum Cano will get. If that is the case, would you be willing to live with that? It is all about the least awful contract, I think. In that case, I think I would be able to deal with the Fielder deal. I wouldn’t like it, but I could live with it. The Votto contract, though, is a year too many. And anything close to Pujols is just absurd.

[8] Those numbers are the max as far as I am concerned, but there needs to be a club buyout at a good price for the last 2 years of a 6 year deal.

[11] Re: George.  Yes , very true, GS blew it big time on those two contract situations.

[12] Prince Fielder+ contract for Cano. No thanks. Boras will find a willing aprtner, doesn’t he always? Only it should not be the Yankees.

I’d be interested to watch the Yankees allow someone else to give the stoopid contract.

I think I would go 25MM per for 5 years on Cano, but I would not got more AAV or more years.

Dodgers just won bid on top flight Korean pitcher, I have to think that moves the likely hood of Kuroda signing with Yanks above 50% again.

I think I would go 25MM per for 5 years on Cano, but I would not got more AAV or more years.

I’d easily go five years/$125 million for Cano, but I don’t see how he can’t get an offer like the Fielder deal on the open market. Cano is clearly a better player than Fielder, so I have to imagine that some team out there will give 8-9 years to him and likely $22-23 million per.

[19]  Yeah, players of Cano’s caliber are getting 8-10 years these days.  If you think your max is 5 or 6 years, then you should be thinking about trading him.

I could be persuaded to go 175/7. But I think that limiting the years on the contract is very important. Maybe the Yankees should sign him to an 8 year contract with opt outs for the last several years.

The Yankees should pass on Cano then try to rebuild.

With the new payroll limits it’s going to be very hard to build a good team after all the bad contracts they have.

Mike Ilitch was born one year before George Steinbrenner.  If he didn’t overpay for Fielder when he did, he might not have been around to try again next year.

Would the Yankees be better off letting Cano walk, take the pick, use the $22M-$25M they would give him if they could keep the years down (which won’t happen, he IS getting 8-10 years on the open market) and spreading it out to cover a couple of positions? Throw Adams or Joseph or whoever Mike K figures can be average at 2B and upgrade elsewhere with the cash?

I know, the argument is that it’s better to spend on one position for elite production than spreading it out, but hamstringing themselves with another player making $20M+ who is going to not be worth his contract for the final 3 to 5 years of it seems like a horrible, horrible idea.

I wouldn’t trade him if they can get BattleCat and Kuroda back because this is the last chance for Jeter/BattleCat/Mo to win it all, so just go all-in this season and hope to win it all. If they do they’ll buy some goodwill for the inevitable 81 win season in 2014.

Too bad they aren’t willing to go totally bananas and throw a 1 year $50M contract at Hamilton. He’d fill Swisher’s spot quite nicely.

I think the decision of whether to overpay (8+ years) Cano is based on if the Yankees just go under 189MM for 2014 or if they plan to stay under it permanently.

If it is just a one year thing, I think the right move is overpaying Cano.  Then you hope he holds his value until the ARod/Teix contracts run out.  I think the only way to be a consistent competitor without ever having to rebuild is to accept that you will have 1-2 washed players on the tail end of huge contracts at most times.

[25] Agreed that 1-2 shell of their former self players isn’t that HUGE of a deal as long as they aren’t planning on being under $189M for multiple years. They can swing it for one year by using a couple free guys from the minors to fill spots and hoping for something above replacement level or signing a washed up vet or two for a season and hoping they turn into an Iguana, but it can’t be sustained for multiple years of those albatrosses eating up so much salary.

[13] And it wasn’t like no one saw that coming—the tabloids were all over the Yankees to extend Jeter and Williams before they hit free agency, but Steinbrenner wouldn’t do it.  As I recall, Williams was really pissed at his treatment and had an extended flirtation with the Red Sox that cost the Yanks even more money.

On a different note, do any of you guys like Titus Andronicus, the band?  Some say they are awesome, I think they are just okay, but “A More Perfect Union” is a pretty great scream-out to New Jersey.

[28] I like the play.

[28] I’m more or less a fan, but not the sort of thing I could recommend to someone who isn’t into that sound.

[27] Not just extra money for Bernie. He was going to sign with the Sawx and Big Stein thought he was signing Albert Belle, who it turns out was just using the Yanks to drive up his price with the O’s. So, they lucked out in that regard but they also had to give Bernie extra money AND an extra year on the contract. I’m sure we all remember how fun the last year of Bernie’s big contract was. Olney had a chapter on it in his book.

[28] I like the band, almost awesome even.

I just watched ‘Shakespeare in Love’ tonight, so it was funny seeing the band Titus Adronicus mentioned. A little synchronicity, Suzyn.

It really galls me to see articles talk about how the Yankees’ past payroll flexibility hasn’t been that helpful, since they’ve only won one World Series since 2000. Are they nucking futs? Of COURSE the huge payroll has helped! They’ve missed the playoffs ONCE since 1995!

instead of announcing to the world where the payroll ceiling is going to be set, why don’t they announce a new policy regarding long term deals that says something like, we don’t do multi year contracts with players that take them into their age 34 and beyond seasons. Maybe it’s 34 for pos players and 36 for pitchers.

I realize some marquee names will be instantly turned off but so be it. Other that Jeter and maybe CC what old highly paid players are really returning on investment for the yankees?

[35] Sort of like the Jays and their limit on pitching contracts?

Everyone here loves pitcher’s batting, four pitch walks, and walking in a run, right? and sometimes those things happen all at once.

What realistic contract would you give Hughes now?  $30-$36/3?

I doubt he’d take much of a discount for 1 year of arbitration but I’m not sure I’d want to commit fire than 3 years.

What realistic contract would you give Hughes now?  $30-$36/3?

It depends on if you’re including 2013 or not.  CAIRO projects him to be worth:

2013: 2.8 WAR
2014: 2.6 WAR
2015: 2.2 WAR
2016: 1.7 WAR
2017: 0.9 WAR

so if you sign him for 2013-2016 you’re looking at about 9.3 WAR, if you’re signing him for 2014-2016 you’re looking at about 6.4 and if you sign him for 2014-217 you are at around 7.3.  Assuming $6M per win, something like

2013-2016: $55.8M
2014-2016: $38.4M
2014-2017: $43.8M

I don’t think I’d go that high on any of them, but I’d do 4/$50M for 2013-2016, 3/$36M for 2014-2016, and 4/$40M for 2014-2017.

[39] I think Hughes would probably jump to sign at something between 4/40 and 4/50.

Yeah, you have to get some discount.  He isn’t a free agent and I’m sure he would love guaranteed money, especially with is injury history.  I was thinking a three year deal taking him from 2013-2015 not arb+ a 3 year extension.

Re Cano/Fielder, Fielder signed his contract after his age 27 season.  So his 9 year deal will take him through age 36.  If Cano plays out this season, a 6 year deal would take him through his age 36.  I think there are enough, smart enough clubs out there now that not many teams would both a) have the money and b) be foolish enough, to give Cano a huge contract taking him into ages 37-39.  I think a 7 or even an 8 year deal for Cano NOW (taking him through age 36 or 37) is defensible.  Yes the last 2-3 years will probably be ugly - though Cano *could* be a rare player, or they could make some money back if/when Cano is approaching some milestones - but they’ll probably get enough value early on to make up for it.  A 9 or 10 year deal after 2013 though, is foolish, and if any team is willing to give him that…yeah, by Robinson.

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