The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, January 23, 2017

NY Post: Dellin Betances ready to hold Yankees’ feet to fire in arbitration

Dellin Betances’ grip on the business of baseball is as firm as the hand that smothers the baseball when he delivers fastballs that look like aspirins and bowel-locking curveballs.

With Betances and the Yankees $2 million apart and headed for an arbitration hearing in Betances’ initial dance with the process, the three-time All-Star said he believes the $5 million he asked for is a righteous request.

“I felt that was a good number for us,’’ said Betances, who is represented by Jim Murray. “What I’ve done for the first three years for the team, we’re asking for a fair number and I just want to be treated fairly. That’s all I ask, to be honest with you.’’

After being renewed for $507,500 a year ago, Betances, who will turn 29 in March, is going to get a colossal raise whether he wins or loses at the arbitration table next month.

I’m surprised they haven’t met in the middle.  But it’s pretty hard to justify paying Aroldis Chapman $16M a year while offering to pay Betances $3M.

--Posted at 11:59 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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Bowel-locking curveballs? Jesus tap-dancing Christ, George. “Dellin Betances: So much break, David Ortiz hasn’t shit since retirement.”

[1] It’s a new era ... anything goes in our public discourse.

I presume part of the math on Chapman involved Betances only getting X. It’s douchey, but I can see where the Yankees figure, “If we lock him at $3 million now, then he can only jump to, say, $6 million instead of $9 million” or whatever. It continues all on down the line due to baseball’s weird arbitration system.

Wow, DeLeon to TB for Forsythe.

I wonder if Minny’s going to regret that.

I like Forsythe a lot, but that’s still a nuts trade.

Come on, Minny, take some of the Yankees’ lesser stuff for Dozier!

That’s a lot to give up for Logan Forsythe…

Dozier doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Yankees.

Pipeline has DeLeon as the No. 8 RHP prospect in MLB. Do the Dodgers need a CF and 3B, and will they get suspicious if Cashman only asks for Puig + Bellinger?

[1,2] I get all my memes from the Post, though.

Did you know gravity is just a theory? smile

[6,7] Yeah, I thought De Leon could have brought more. Surprised that Minny and LAD couldn’t work out a deal for Dozier.  I’m guessing De Leon wasn’t enough to headline a trade and Minny was insisting on Urias or De Leon AND Bellinger.

In fairness, Dozier is a 4 - 5 WAR guy who’s coming off an MVP type season. If Forsythe brought De Leon, Twins are justified in looking for quite a bit more.

I never understood the standard for arbitration.  Obviously it isn’t the money he could get on the free agent market because he isn’t a free agent, so how do they determine a players arbitration value?  A linear progression from where they are now to their free agent value when they become one?

[12] Interesting thought. I know it based on service time but someone had to establish some initial condition when the process started and they’ve built off of that.  X player got $Y with 1 year of service time and 30 saves, I had 31 saves therefore, etc.  MLBTR has some ridiculously accurate model to predict what players will get.  Would be interesting if someone challenged the initial condition, and thus, the entire model.

[13] I know someone who could do this, and it would make the Yankees appear better.

[11] Jeff Sullivan has a post at fan graphs showing that Forsythe and Dozier are very similar over the past two years. Now, if you buy Dozier’s massive HR spike then he’s worth more, but I don’t really… I think the two will come pretty close to equal the next two years. But that’s kind the thing: they’re both only under contract for two years. Meanwhile De Leon hasn’t started his clock.

Maybe the Twins don’t like De Leon at all, but really, if they missed a chance to get a top prospect with 6 years of control for an asset at absolute peak value… well then they’re the Twins.

[15] The analysis in that Sullivan post was pretty weak.

Dozier, fWAR over the last 4 years:

2013 2.5
2014 4.7
2015 3.3
2016 5.9
2017 Steamer 3.1

Forsythe:

2013 -0.2
2014 -0.5
2015 4.0
2016 2.8
2017 Steamer 1.5

These are not comparable players over whatever time frame Sullivan wants to choose.

Ian Kinsler…

2013 2.6
2014 5.2
2015 4.2
2016 5.8

...is a comparable player, except Dozier is 4 years younger than Kinsler.

The Twins are in possession of one of the best second basemen in the game coming off a great year, in an offseason where Adam Eaton was traded to the Nats for the rough equivalent of Urias and De Leon.  Can’t fault them for demanding a high price and sticking to it.

Maybe, but the question is will the Twins do better?  They clearly should trade Dozier, and we don’t know what the best offer from the Dodgers was.  But the Dodgers were the team with the need and the resources.  Maybe in July Altuve’s broken his leg…but maybe in July Dozier’s broken his leg.

I agree that it seems like an overpay for Forsythe, but it also seems like a missed opportunity for the Twins.

The more relevant question is who do Altuve and Dozier owe money to, and don’t you think your collection methods are a little bit retrograde?

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