The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Sunday, April 15, 2012

NY Baseball Digest: Silva: Is Cano Worth $300 Million?

That brings me to Cano. He has been called “Rod Carew with power,” but he should belong in the conversation with some of the best in the game at his position. Most believe Joe Morgan is the best second baseman in history. Through the age of 29, Morgan had accumulated 103 HRs, 433 RBI and a batting average of .270. He had two All-Star appearances and had won his first Gold Glove during that 1973 season. In comparison, Cano is also a tw0-time All-Star, won a Gold Glove and a superior offensive player with 144 career HRs, 621 RBI and a .307 batting average.

The Yankees have a $15 million dollar option for next season. Cano will be a free agent after 2013, and undoubtedly one of the most desired on the market. Is it crazy to think someone will offer him an Alex Rodriguez-type contract that exceeds exceeds $27 million AAV?

No.

The Morgan comparison is specious at best, and intellectually dishonest at worst.  It completely ignores the respective contexts of the two (Morgan put up a 129 OPS+ and 47.0 Baseball Reference WAR through age 29, compared to Cano’s 119 and 28.5).

Ian Kinsler just signed for five years and $75M.  He’s averaged about 4.7 WAR over the last three years compared to Cano’s 5.0.  Even if you think Cano’s a win better than Kinsler, a more reasonable contract might pay him by about $5M more per season.  Maybe you go to six or seven years for Cano, which I wouldn’t do, but anyway that means something like 6/$120M or 7/$140M.

$30M a year?  No freaking way.

--Posted at 8:58 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Amazing how people don’t get it. Pretty much no chance any player would ever be worth that contract. If I were Cashman I would extend Cano now. Give Cano that Kinsler deal + 5-10% and move on.

We’re pretty sure Cano’s future as he declines is to move to 3B, right ? Or does he move to the outfield ? What’s more common ?

[2] Opting out and receiving an additional 7 years at $30 million per year on top of the 3 years remaining on your current deal?

I can see Cano at 3B, although he’s better going to his right which isn’t as much of an advantage at 3B.  He’s definitely got the arm for it.

I think he’d be a pretty good corner OF.  He goes back well on balls hit to shallow RF so I don’t think tracking fly balls is an issue.  He’d probably be better off in RF with less ground to cover in DNYS and his arm would probably be more valuable there.

Waiting for night games is so boring. It’s like a day game with a rain delay.

[5] If any of us are ever elected to public office, night games on the weekends must be made illegal.

Noesi: 8 IP, 0 R, 6 K, 1 BB
Montero: 2B, HR

Bear Grylis is a bad baseball name.

7: thats the way for me to start my day on a sour note.

[9] That, combined with reading about Hughes’ start.

[8] Agreed.
 
Was it

Vintage Hughes.  Strike one.  Strike two.  Then, either he’d…

?
Well, this is what we’ve been considering; I’m not so sure, but I think we’ve reached paste, so… done with that.

I’m amazed that so many of us who were on board with the Montero-Pineda trade would change their mind based on what he’s now on the DL with.  We were all saying that this is a trade we’ll be able to judge 5 or 6 years out.  Is this just complaining exercise, or is it serious?  Because if it’s serious, it seems ridiculous to me.

And why would we possibly wish Noesi & Jesus ill?  If players the Yankees trade do well, doesn’t that help NYA in future trades?  Or would we want to foster the idea that, if NYA’s trading something of value, it’s probably broken?

[11] I agree. I hope Montero the best, and I think Noesi had little chance of being a good pitcher in DNYS. But he’s a great fit for the pitcher’s parks of the AL West. Even given the DL I would still make the trade. Also keep in mind that Campos has been extremely impressive thus far with 1 hit 3 walks and 11 Ks in 11 innings.

Is this just complaining exercise

Have you met us?

[7, 11] Don’t forget Noesi’s 1st start:

3 IP, 7 ER, 3 K, 3 BB’s, 2 HR’s.

His start last night was against the A’s. They’re not really an offensive club save for the Human Centipede and whether or not you like Seth Smith.

That said, I liked Noesi and was not happy he was part of the deal, but I am excited about Campos. So, it is what it is.

It does suck to read articles about how our 3-4-5 hitters have mailed it in thus far and Montero has had a decent start. Oh, BTW, Montero has only caught two games. I’m sure there are some Seattle fans who are wondering why they gave up a pitcher who threw ~170 league average innings as a 22 year old for a DH with a .750 OPS.

I’ve been doing some thinking about Hughes. I want to see at least 2 more starts. So far he’s been bad, but also unlucky. He’s got a BABiP of .435 with a batted ball profile that suggests a much more reasonable line. He also has a HR/9 of over 3 which is also a bit high (although probably deserved). He has a K rate of 27% (mlb avg for a starter is 16) which is extremely high, although his walk rate is not great.

Since neither Andy nor Pineda will be ready until May he’ll get that chance, for better or worse.

Waiting for night games is so boring. It’s like a day game with a rain delay.

I think the Yankees play on Sunday night next week as well.  They hate those games as much as we hate waiting for them.

Oh, BTW, Montero has only caught two games.

That’s still two more games than Pineda has seen.

I’m amazed that so many of us who were on board with the Montero-Pineda trade would change their mind based on what he’s now on the DL with.

I’d imagine the people bringing up the trade now were probably not on board with it in the first place, which is completely understandable. I don’t think anyone who thought it was a fair trade is going to judge it after a week’s worth of games in the first season of a trade that will probably need three or four years to properly assess.

I was on board with the trade.  I did not change my mind when Pineda went to the DL. I wish Noesi and Montero well in Seattle.  I am aware that without that trade we might now be very concerned about the Yankees’ starting pitcher depth, or worse, we might still have AJ. 

And yet, I’m still bothered my the current state of things.  Irrational?  Yes.  Not much more irrational than feeling good or bad depending on who wins a professional sporting match.

[17] That’s still two more games than Pineda has seen.

But that’s because Pineda is injured. We traded for a SP, and we (presumably) got a SP.

All the Mariner’s FO comments about Montero were “we believe he can catch”-ish. Yet we’re 10 games into the season and he’s caught 2. If I was a Mariners fan, I’d be scratching my head and/or pissed. Here’s a random excerpt from USS Mariner:

Eric Wedge has answered our prayers – Miguel Olivo is not in today’s starting line-up. Jesus Montero makes his debut behind the plate for the team, while John Jaso makes his first appearance of the year at DH. He’s hitting 9th – behind Brendan Ryan – which should tell you all you need to know about what Wedge thinks of him as a hitter, but, hey, Jaso and Montero are both playing and Olivo is not. I’ll take it any way I can get it.

[20] I don’t get why hitting the fact that Eric Wedge hits Jaso 9th reflects a negative.  As a Yankee fan for the last couple years, I’ve understood the 9th spot is for the second leadoff guy, one of your more valuable offensive pieces.

I’m amazed that so many of us who were on board with the Montero-Pineda trade would change their mind based on what he’s now on the DL with.  We were all saying that this is a trade we’ll be able to judge 5 or 6 years out.

I supported the trade, and I hope they do well. Montero would never develop into a catcher in NY, but in SEA he’ll get a better chance. SEA is our finishing school, and we’ll get Montero back in his age 32-37 years as part of a DH platoon, for which we’ll pay him $15M AAV.

Is this just complaining exercise, or is it serious?

It could also be antagonism towards those who opposed the deal.

SEA is just bad enough that Montero or Noesi could get tagged as their token ASG attendees…

I hated the trade (still do). However, even I am not silly enough to think, that 2 weeks into the season is a good time to declare the Mariners the winner of this trade. And why should I now stop rooting for Montero, I still love ( and miss) him.

[21] Well, if you say that the line up is just a way of distributing AB’s, then Jaso won’t get more AB’s than Ryan. Either way, I was focusing more on the fact that there’s some evidence of displeasure with Miguel Olivo playing, which I’m loosely trying to argue as displeasure that Montero is not catching, although I suppose the author of that blurb would be fine with Montero DH/Jaso C so long as Olivo is on the bench.

{24] Yes, yes.  I was just making a snarky comment about Gardner hitting 9th so often, and the clichéd msm justification.  Internet irony fail.

[25]
I thought it worked pretty well, Frog.

Matthew Moore is so much fun to watch.

I wish Montero a decent career not greatness.  As for the trade I was an agnostic as I am for so many things other then politics and dislike of the Townies.

Oh, what I meant is, Moore sucks so much, he could be a Yankee SP.

[30]  He’d pitch teh 6th.

[31] Possibly, or maybe trade fodder for an outfielder.

[32] I’d rather get a first baseman who can hit.

I didn’t post their stats to judge the trade, I just wanted to see how they’re doing. Frog in 19 sums it up.

Yes, indeed. Frog has it nailed.

And I posted Centipede’s stats just to rub the salt in all our wounds about being on a budget and having to pin all our offensive hopes on a bunch of limp bats in the heart of our order.

At the same time, we’re still talking about 8 games in, so it’s still mostly sarcasm.

I supported the Montero-Pineda trade, and agree that it should take at least a year or two to begin evaluating it.

My question is, if I knew, when the trade went down, that Pineda would show up with decreased velocity and need to go on the DL with a sore shoulder, would I still have made the trade?  No.  But is that rational?  I don’t know.

As for Cano, a contract a little north of what Kinsler got makes a lot of sense, but nothing too far beyond that.

It’s bizarre the Mariners wouldn’t catch Montero, and then when they do have him catch, put a proven half-competent defensive catcher at DH. I mean, what?

But that’s because Pineda is injured. We traded for a SP, and we (presumably) got a SP.

It was snark.  And I agree. I would be a little unnerved as to why Montero wasn’t catching more if I rooted for the Mariners.  But it’s still early so I wouldn’t be too upset.

the worst hitting pitcher would have had a better AB than that. Inconceivable.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/bartolo-colon-rolls-down-a-hill-uncontrollably,27872/

I wouldn’t give Cano a long-term contract at $30m/year.  The most I’d give him would be something like Kinsler’s 5/$75.  Players decline as they age, in the field, at bat, and on the basepaths.  The get injured more and stay injured longer.  Look at Teix, Johann Santana, ARod, etc. Given the severe financial penalties that a team now pays for having too high a payroll, the Yanks can’t afford to risk tying up a lot of money in a player who may not be worth that amount for much of his contract.

Townies sweep Rays compounding 9&10;

[42 & earlier]
Nobody’s giving Cano 30 million / annum.  It would be ridiculous if the Morgan comparison didn’t blithely ignore the distinction between a depressed offensive era and this one.  It would be ridiculous if he really were Joe Morgan rejuvenated.
It’s beyond ridiculous, the team wouldn’t consider it, I think he’d start laughing if he tried to ask for it.
Will anyone disagree when I say it’s not a realistic discussion?  It’s an attempt to provoke controversy that should have the effect only of confirming that the author is unqualified to have a job in this field.

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