I’m convinced that Brackman will someday make a great basketball player at the YMCA pickup games.

Also, if there really is a different plan for Betances for the end of the season, I will be very interested to see the resutlts.

Freaky-tall guys can be late bloomers, no? Or am I generalizing from one data point named Randy Johnson?

[2] “I’m generalizing from one example, here, but everyone generalizes from one example. At least, I do.”

Quoth Harvey Dent?

I’ll just say I don’t share the same outlook for Andrew Brackman.

IDK what you’re talking about, Brackman is currently riding a streak of 1 consecutive good appearance.  Promote him already!

Yeah, obviously you don’t want to give up on Brackman yet.  He’s definitely had a non-standard development path.  But next year is make or break for him.  If I had to give percentages, I’d say maybe 10% chance he could still be a big league starter, 40% he could be a big league reliever, 50% he’ll never pitch 10 innings in the big leagues.

Will be interesting to see what the Yankees do with all their upper-level starting pitchers this off-season.  I’d imagine at least 2 are traded, one promoted to the big leagues, and the others starting in AAA.  I don’t know the identities of these people yet…

I think baseball players in general can be late bloomers. It’s not an easy game. Mechanics are more important for longer players than shorter players because each movement is magnified, so any mechanical flaw in a guy who is 6’10” would be magnified compared to that of a 6’0” pitcher.

So, if a guy doesn’t have naturally repeatable mechanics and is tall, it could take him longer than average to refine his mechanics down to a workable and repeatable level.

[5] If Banuelos has a good spring, there’s a distinct chance that he could break camp with the team, so could Phelps or Warren. I think they will trade Noesi.

Or am I generalizing from one data point named Randy Johnson?

There are 39 pitchers in MLB history (since 1901) that were listed at 80” or taller.

Player_IP_ERA+
Randy Johnson_4135_145
J.R. Richard_1606_114
Gene Conley_1589_105
Mike Smithson_1356_94
Mark Hendrickson_1168_93
Jeff Nelson_785_142
Chris Young_776_121
Lee Guetterman_658_109
Graeme Lloyd_533_126
Chris Volstad_530_94
Jon Rauch_516_118
Kameron Loe_455_107
Jeff Niemann_454_100
Doug Fister_385_105
Billy Taylor_325_114
Kyle Snyder_238_91
Eric Hillman_232_87
Johnny Gee_175_83
Jason Hirsh_166_91
Andy Sisco_148_104
Mark Acre_127_93
Sean West_113_87
Mike Naymick_112_114
Logan Ondrusek_110_129
Adam Russell_87_104
Nate Minchey_64_94
Steve Ellsworth_36_62
Kameron Mickolio_32_116
Terry Bross_12_185
Phil Stockman_11_76
Joe Vitko_5_28
Stefan Wever_3_17
Darren Clarke_1_0

They average an ERA+ of 98.

Not a ton of data obviously.  I think the common wisdom is that it’s harder for taller pitchers to repeat their mechanics, which is why they might be late-bloomers, but looking at this list there’s aren’t all that many bloomers period.

AJ vs Haren tonight.  That’ll wipe away the stink from Sundays game.

[4] Vlad Taltos, from Steven Brust’s Marxism-inflected exercices de style fantasy series about an assassin, which I highly recommend, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Jeff Nelson with the Randy-Johnsonesque ERA+.  Hadn’t realized he was that good for 800 IP.

One wonders why Terry Bross of 185 ERA+ in 12 innings wasn’t given more of a chance. One checked the interwebs and found that wikipedia claims he ended up playing in Japan and threw a no hitter.

One is also going to refer to himself by One for the foreseeable future.

They average an ERA+ of 98.

So you’re saying the average tall pitcher is…average?

So you’re saying the average tall pitcher is…average?

{gasp}

[7] I find it unlikely Banuelos is on the Yankees in April.  Given his age, that he’ll have an innings limit, and that there are other guys who are ahead of him on the depth-chart right now (if not the ability chart), I’m pretty sure he’ll start the year in AAA.  Now, he could be up in the bigs as early as May.  But I think they’re going to take their time with him.

I think CC re-signs.  I think they give AJ one more year (or at least half a year) in the rotation.  I think Nova and Phil are both penciled into the rotation next year.  After that, right *now* I think you’ve got Noesi, Phelps, Warren, and even Mitchell battling for that 5th spot.  I don’t think any of them belong in AAA any more, *but* I can see the Yankees keeping one.  So yeah, I’d say Noesi and one of Warren/Phelps/Mitchell is traded.  Unless they already feel Noesi’s place is the pen - which I doubt - in which case he may stay on as a swing-man. 

The other two who aren’t traded will battle for the 5th spot, possibly with a veteran brought in to compete.  One wins, other sent down to AAA as the likely first-callup.  Then AAA rotation is killer-B’s (Brackman like AJ will get at least a half-year…too much potential), Warren/Phelps/Mitchell, probably Hall with Stoneburner getting another shot in AA to try and stay healthy.  That’s a LOT of pitching talent in the upper-minors, and hopefully the trade(s) bring back some useful pieces as well.

That’s my two cents…

“They average an ERA+ of 98.”

Is that inning weighted?

I guess one would want to see if the ERA+ distribution is skewed right, or perhaps if the aging curve has a later peak for these pitchers.

[15] Didn’t we estimate the innings limit on Banuelos at somewhere around 160 for 2012? 160 IP is completely viable for a 5th starter through skipped starts here and there throughout the season.

The Yankees have been pretty aggressive with Banuelos and clearly believe that he’s close to MLB ready.

One really thinks that Noesi is going to be traded this offseason and that either Phelps or Warren will end up in the ML pen by the end of May in 2012.

[16]  Are there enough pitchers in that sample to draw conclusions?

[17]  What would anyone give for Noesi?  Who wants that kind of pitcher?  Maybe Pittsburgh or San Diego?

[16], doesn´t look to be innings weighted. 2-10 on the list clearly average above 100 and RJ has more innings than the remaining lot together.

Looks like average tall pitcher is better than average pitcher.

I think Bad AJ gets traded in the off-season (with the Yanks picking up a bunch of his salary) and they probably try to re-sign Colon (more dependent on years than dollars).

Right now the ONLY SP under contract for next season who deserves a spot in the rotation is Nova. Fuse could earn one based on his performance the rest of the season.

[20] Why would anyone want Bad AJ? ALso do the Yankees get to keep Good AJ?

Funny that tall pitchers are as rare as short ones, but maybe not—maybe the tall guys play basketball and football.

There shouldn’t be a lot of late bloomers due to the fact that baseball is an up-or-out profession.  Naturally, if a guy doesn’t produce fairly good results by the time he’s 25 or 26, he’s unlikely to get much of a chance to ever make it.  What probably allows some guys to become late bloomers is showing tremendous promise as a very young prospect.  In that case, they may have earned enough of a reputation as a future stud to survive a few years of injury and disappointing results.

[17] Sure, that sounds reasonable…but, I think - pure speculation - that some of the difficulties they’ve had with both Hughes and Joba trying to get limits that low, has/will make them cautious.  That and the fact that Banuelos is just so young, and I don’t think they’re in any kind of hurry.  Especially as they’ve got other guys to start the year with and see what they’ve got.  Yes they’ve been aggressive and he’s close, but…I don’t think that will happen.

Yeah, I think Noesi will be traded too, if there’s a market at least.  I don’t think Phelps or Warren will be in the pen.  Or at least, not unless the other one is being successful in the rotation and there’s a need.  The Yankees have shown some patience with these young pitchers.  Many wanted Nova out of the rotation quite some time ago, but the Yanks were rightfully patient.  I believe one of Warren/Phelps (unless traded) will get 6-8 weeks in the rotation, and if they fail sent to AAA and the other will be tried.  Of course, where they are in the standings will have some effect.

[18] Going into the year Noesi was a highly rated (I think 4th on Yankees by Sickel’s) pitching prospect, who has shown he has a role in the majors.  And I really doubt many teams have closed the book on him as a starter.  So he’s got quite a bit of value, I’d think.  By himself, he wouldn’t get a lot.  Either a prospect further away (C prospect in A-ball), or maybe an older player who isn’t quite a starter, but still too good for the bench for most teams.  I think the Yankees may go for the former if it is available, but each offer would be unique.

[22] Do you see a lot of tall guys play Football? One thought it was rare to see anyone on that extreme in football since it rewards quick explosive motions which are less likely and more difficult for tall people as they are all lanky and whatnot.

[20] I think the Yankees would love to do that.  But first they need a taker, then they also need AJ to waive his NTC.  Tall order, though not impossible.  If that happens I also think they’re more likely to keep Garcia, if they go that route.  Safer bet, plus Colon may be able to leverage this into a multi-year deal.  Also, rumor is Garcia may be a type-B, so Yankees would take the risk that offering him arbitration he’ll either accept on 1-year/modest raise, or they get a pick (assuming compensation is the same).  Another way to go depending on how much they save on AJ’s contract, go big and get Wilson…

I think Banuelos will be given an opportunity to win a spot in ST next season, but it’ll be dependent on other pitchers and not so much him.  Fuse is on a short leash (and unless he starts excelling, he is going to be surpassed by younger prospects - the pipeline doesn’t stop).  Nova has a spot.  Burnett has a spot because “he’s been good and stuff,” CC will be back, and the rest will be dependent on what happens with off season acquisitions.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens with some of the fringier guys like Warren and Mitchell.  Are any of them potential free agents (or whatever the term for miL guys is)?

[27] One is pretty sure they’re all at least 1 year from MiL Free Agency. One is not a big believer in Mitchell, but One thinks Warren or Phelps could passably hold down a back of the rotation spot for at least a few months.

Why would anyone want Bad AJ? ALso do the Yankees get to keep Good AJ?

I would think several NL teams would take him at a fraction of his current salary since his stuff plus AAAA hitters in spacious ballparks would probably lead to success. Good AJ died in May of 2010. RIP Good AJ.

[26] I think they could convince him to waive his NTC if they said the other option is they are putting him in the pen and he is only pitching in the lowest of leverage situations.

“One is pretty sure”

I’ve been out of touch - is there some other Jane Austen worshiper here besides me that this presumably pokes fun at?

Here’s what they should do with Banuelos. Name him as the 5th starter out of Spring Training. Then when Robertson gets hurt, move him to the pen. Then when Robertson get’s back move him back to the rotation. Then when he gets bad results move him back to the minors, then bring him up to start when Hughes gets hurt. Then put him back in the pen when Hughes gets better. Then trade him for Jeff Francoeur.

90% of the time, that works all the time.

One is

That does get annoying in a hurry…

not a big believer in Mitchell

Mitchell still has some work to do, but I think he can at least be a major-league pitcher.  I think he makes more sense to package in a deal with Noesi and potentially others than keep…but he’s got a future.

Warren or Phelps could passably hold down a back of the rotation spot for at least a few months.

I think you’re underrating both of them.  Warren’s k-rate is way down this year (and BB-rate up) but in the past both have been excellent.  Perhaps he’s hit a wall, or maybe he’s working on other pitches (see [0]).  He’s only 23.  I think his ceiling is more mid-rotation than swing-man.  Phelps has consistently in the minors had a K:BB > 3 - usually close to 4 - and he’s got the stuff to keep it up.  I think he’s in the same boat, maybe a little higher even, though the injury dampens things a little.

One wonders why Terry Bross of 185 ERA+ in 12 innings wasn’t given more of a chance.

I vaguely remember Bross as a big dude who didn’t throw hard and had pretty lousy control.  It looks like he was a reliever all the way up through the Mets farm, which is strike one against him.  He walked about 1 man every two innings, and he didn’t have stuff to get by with it.

FWIW, Lance Pendleton had an ERA+ of 191 over his first 12 innings.  I don’t think we’ll see teams clamoring to give him a chance.  Well, maybe Pittsburgh, where he’ll lead the NL in ERA or something.

The one place where I think Burnett could go and do well is San Diego.  I doubt they have the budget for him though.

Do you see a lot of tall guys play Football?

Seems like there’s a limit there.  You’ll see some tall linemen, but it can be a disadvantage for the quarterback if it makes it harder to see over them.  I guess tall quarterbacks make sense.  The tallest one I remember is Mark McGwires brother, who was 6’8”.  He only started three games in five years though.

Wikipedia: Dan McGwire

At six feet, eight inches, he is the tallest quarterback drafted in the NFL to date.[

At the skill positions like wide receiver you’ll see some as well, but if you’re athletic enough to be an NFL wide receiver and are exceptionally tall, you may be better off pursuing basketball, which seems to be a better path to money and a longer career.  The NFL seems like the worst place for a pro athlete to go, given the beating they take and the non-guaranteed salaries.

[32] I was referring to 2012 not careers in general. I still think that Phelps should go to the BP, but I am intrigued by Warren’s fastballs. IMO Mitchell is the least intersting of the 3. I think he’s got a decent chance at eding up in the ML, but I’m not a huge fan. He strikes me more as a AAA/AAAA guy.

[35] I would think you’d see the most “tall” guys at QB or kicker where explosive motion is less important than arm speed or leg speed.

Absolutely why anyone would choose to go to the NFL over another major professional sport blows my mind. Except when drafted early, because the high draft money for the NFL can be pretty serious.

The tallest football players are OTs averaging about 77.5 inches, TE and G about 76, DE 76.  There must be some 80-inchers in there.  Kickers are short.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=493

[37] The NFL high draft money has now been cut substantially. Still set for life money of course (if you get selected in the first round), but if you are the kind of athlete who could choose the sport to excel at why choose the one that will likely give you brain damage? Especially taller individuals who can have a long NBA career just based on being tall.

I think it’s funny that the NFL players contracts are called contracts. They should be called loose agreement, since neither party seems to have much respect for them.

[36] Oh I see…yeah, Mitchell is definitely the least skilled of them, and least likely to succeed.  I think Phelps/Warren - Phelps in particular - could do better than hold the fort at the back for a few months next year.  *If* the Yankees are willing to be patient with them like they were with Nova, at least.

Absolutely why anyone would choose to go to the NFL over another major professional sport blows my mind.

College.  You’re best bet to getting a full ride to a major college is probably football (followed by basketball).  Once in college the football and basketball seasons overlap enough that you need to commit to one (I think).  And football and basketball I think there is enough disparity in the skill-set that a lot of guys will naturally fit into one or the other.  After that…a 3rd round pick in football probably is guaranteed more money for the first 3 years than an undrafted FA in basketball would get.

[37] Absolutely why anyone would choose to go to the NFL over another major professional sport blows my mind. Except when drafted early, because the high draft money for the NFL can be pretty serious.

Considering the average NFL career is only 3.5 years most guys will never see serious coin.  The median salary in 2010 was “only” $750k or so and I think I saw that 3/4 of NFL players are bankrupt within two years of retirement.  Oh, and hey, the ones with the shortest careers, the linemen, get to slowly go mad.  No thanks, I’ll hit jumpers.

EDITED: I guess the 3/4 statistic I saw is a zombie lie.  However, the fact remains that young players don’t get paid as much and aren’t in the league long enough and only a relative few ever make the serious coin that possibly justifies repetitive head injuries.

[36]

A lot of people feel that Mitchell will be a good RP. He doesn’t have great numbers, but has always been a GB specialist.

So you’re saying the average tall pitcher is…average?

And tall.

FWIW, I get an IP-weighted ERA+ of 116 from above.  Excluding Randy Johnson, I get 107.