Monday, April 23, 2012
NJ.com: Carig: Yankees expect powerful Rangers team in upcoming series
Indeed, the Rangers have lived up to their billing. At spring training, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman proclaimed the Rangers the class of the American League, by virtue of their status as two-time defending league champions. They host the Yankees in a three-game set that begins Monday coming off an 8-1 road trip.
The Rangers have a 13-3 mark, the best in baseball.
“Explosive offensive,” Girardi said. “Speed. Power. Play very good defense. Starting pitching is deep. Their bullpen is deep. They’re a complete team.”
The Rangers lead all of baseball in run differential at +52, having scored 94 runs while allowing 42. At their current pace they’d end the year with a 132-30 record and would score 952 runs and allow 425. Their Pythagenpat winning percentage of .816 is higher than their measly .813 actual winning percentage.
I don’t think they’re quite that good. My favorite quick and dirty check of how a good team is uses the linear weights of the components their offense has produced and their pitching/defense has allowed to see how their runs scored and allowed break down in a neutral context. This will adjust for teams that have performed better or worse than expected in crucial situations, something that is generally not predictive.
According to linear weights batting runs, the Rangers offense should have produced 96 runs and their pitching and defense should have allowed 48. So they’ve really only produced at a level commensurate with a .790 wpct team, aka a team that would win 128 games over a full season.
I knew they weren’t that good.
The Yankees are doomed, aren’t they?
Comments
Yes.
Can we close the thread now?
On the other hand, 5 reasons the yankees are not doomed:
1. The Yankees have won more World Series in the past 3 years than all other American League teams combined. That has to count for something.
2. Freddy Garcia will not be pitching.
3. Phil Hughes once pitched well there.
4. Yankees have a $200m payroll or thereabouts. In Texas especially money buys success - right? I watched Dallas and thats what JR said.
5. George Bush used to own this team - surely he made some bad decisions which still carry over to today.
We should concede the three games and move on to the next series.
I think Phil Hughes pitched well twice in Texas, which is two more times* than he’s ever pitched well anywhere else.
*estimated, may not be entirely accurate
Once Josh Hamilton misses his usual 25-35 game stint, this team will come back down to Earth. Right?
They just need to bring a little coke with them as a welcome to America gift for Yu. Then Washington will be snorting the foul line and subbing minor league players from other teams by the third inning while Hamilton is doing body shots off random women in the second deck.
[6] But wouldn’t that make Hamilton hit more homeruns? /86Mets
No Met on the 1986 team hit 30 homers. So cocaine must repress power!
As for the Rangers, while they are certainly awesome, I wonder if they are not set up a bit like the 2001 Mariners (and many Yankee teams over the years) where their starting pitching depth aides them greatly during the regular season but becomes less important in the postseason.
And we saw what happened with the Mariners and all those Yankees teams.
Of course, that’s just me wishcasting, but still…
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