Monday, April 23, 2012
Indeed, the Rangers have lived up to their billing. At spring training, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman proclaimed the Rangers the class of the American League, by virtue of their status as two-time defending league champions. They host the Yankees in a three-game set that begins Monday coming off an 8-1 road trip.
The Rangers have a 13-3 mark, the best in baseball.
“Explosive offensive,” Girardi said. “Speed. Power. Play very good defense. Starting pitching is deep. Their bullpen is deep. They’re a complete team.”
The Rangers lead all of baseball in run differential at +52, having scored 94 runs while allowing 42. At their current pace they’d end the year with a 132-30 record and would score 952 runs and allow 425. Their Pythagenpat winning percentage of .816 is higher than their measly .813 actual winning percentage.
I don’t think they’re quite that good. My favorite quick and dirty check of how a good team is uses the linear weights of the components their offense has produced and their pitching/defense has allowed to see how their runs scored and allowed break down in a neutral context. This will adjust for teams that have performed better or worse than expected in crucial situations, something that is generally not predictive.
According to linear weights batting runs, the Rangers offense should have produced 96 runs and their pitching and defense should have allowed 48. So they’ve really only produced at a level commensurate with a .790 wpct team, aka a team that would win 128 games over a full season.
I knew they weren’t that good.
The Yankees are doomed, aren’t they?
Next entry: Pitchers A vs. Pitchers B