The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Newsday: Hip surgeon hopeful Alex Rodriguez can return after All-Star Game

Alex Rodriguez’s doctor said last night that he is “hoping” A-Rod will be able to return to the Yankees after the All-Star break following left hip surgery that has been scheduled for next Wednesday. The date was announced last night.
Dr. Bryan Kelly, the co-director of the Center for Hip Pain and Preservation at the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan and the lead surgeon for Rodriguez, said the typical return-to-play time after surgery of this nature is six months.
The All-Star break begins July 15.

“Optimistically speaking, what we’re hoping for is him to be able to return after the All-Star break,” Kelly said in a conference call. “It’d be great if he returns faster. It’s possible that it would take longer.”
Rodriguez, 37, needs a two-hour surgery to repair a torn labrum, a bony impingement in the hip and cartilage damage, Kelly said. It is the unknown extent of the cartilage damage that is the wild card in the surgery, according to Kelly, and ultimately will determine how quickly A-Rod makes it back.

Reading this makes me think there’s a chance Rodriguez misses the whole season.

--Posted at 8:16 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)


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They are just saving him for when they will really need him, post $189.

[0] It also makes you think that his baseline projection might see a boost because the problem that caused him to fall off a cliff got fixed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come back right around mid July and have, on a rate basis, a season similar to 2009.

A-Rod is a historical outlier and the problem is related to injury.
That would be a situation where projection is almost useless, wouldn’t it?

Also, there’s a good chance that, the year after Blyleven finally got elected to the HOF, Jack Morris will get elected.
Nice little 180 in the symbolism there, no?

Looking forward to all the silly stories about his return. “ARod’s comeback is the Yankees’ big splash acquisition as they gear up for the stretch run. How many other teams can add a 3-time MVP at the trade deadline? Yankees GM Brian Cashman praised Rodriguez’s work ethic to get back on the field so quickly and predicted that his return will be the spark the team needs to catch the surging Jays.”

Do you remember when Nate Silver said that Arod wasn’t going to break Bonds HR Record? Almost everybody went nuts saying that Arod was special and he will age better than the average player. It turns out that he is aging worse than his peers now and may be finished as a regular baseball player.

[3] Sure. My thought process is basically that there are two reasons why he’s been getting worse over the last 3-4 years: (1) age and (2) this hip injury. Now, clearly there is some relation, as the hip injury was made worse as he got older. I’m just wondering what we would have projected to had he not gotten the hip injruy - which I figured would be him hitting his 50% each year since 2008 or so, and it’d probably be close to what he did in 2009.

I was actually optimistic after reading the Sherman article, because it stated that the injury caused his Kardashian quality playoff performance, surgery can fix the problem, and, if the surgery is successful, he can play at close to his old level, factoring in ordinary decline.

[5] They also stand to get Pineda back around the same time, right?  Hopefully the story lines aren’t “if we can just stay 5 games back until those guys come back, we should be good.”

So now we are calling into question A-Rod’s projections and health when looking at this team in 2013.  This is in addition to questioning how things will shake out with $189 in 2014.  How they can resign free agents and replace production lost from aging players on a budget?  How well is their farm system positioned to give them cheap alternatives?  All of these are really good points with no obvious answers.  We’ve been skirting this all off-season but now I really think it’s time…

Could somebody please, find Ja Rule and get a hold of this motherfucker so we can make sense of all this?  WHERE IS JA?  Help us Ja Rule!

[6] The Dr. basiclly says there’s a chance ARod could be done, or there’s a chance he could rebound.  Probably greater chance of the former but…wow, can you imagine if starting Aug 1 we get 55 games of ARod w/ a wRC+ of 140 or over?

So now we are calling into question A-Rod’s projections and health when looking at this team in 2013.

Wait, we haven’t been doing this since November?

We’ve been skirting this all off-season

We have?

I don’t think this news changes much of anything.  How 2013 goes is based a lot on how older players perform, health, and if a young player or two can break out (Nova improving on 2011, Phelps building on 2012, Nunez figuring out where 1B is when he’s in the field, maybe CoJo hitting his way onto the team).  What they do for 2014 will be based greatly on how some older players under contract perform, and younger players progress.

BTW, ARod’s surgery is now scheduled 1 week from today.

[11] What happens if Arod is done as a MLB player? Does the insurance pays the Yankees his salary? How much?

We have?

As far as I know, yes.  Wait… are you telling me someone got a hold of Ja Rule?  Did I miss it?  What did he say?  LINK!!!!

Where is Ja?????  Please help us Ja Rule!!

[8] he can play at close to his old level, factoring in ordinary decline.

This is what I was getting at.  What was ordinary decline? Hard to know, but we could be surprised at what level he would have been with ordinary decline.

Optimism: Is it not true that the Yankees have won the World Series every year A-Rod missed time after a hip surgery?

[14] If ARod retires Yankees are off the hook for whatever is owed him, including AAV against their taxable salary.

If ARod is on the disabled-list forever, Yankees are on the hook for his salary AND - more importantly - his hit against the salary threshold.  There is nothing official that I’ve read on insurance against his salary.  I’ve read that there are some unconfirmed reports that the Yankees have a significant portion of his salary insured for at least 2013, but nothing official for how much, or how many years.  However, I don’t think how much of his salary is covered will have any effect on the Yankees’ spending patterns in future years.

FWIW, if I had to bet based on what I know right now, I’d say ARod will still be a regular player for at least 3, maybe as many as 5 more years.  He may be limited to 100-120 games a year, and 1.5-2.5 wins of value, but since he’s a sunk cost that actually isn’t bad.  I think he still has the upside - now that they’ve hopefully found and corrected the issues - of being a 120-140 game a year player, and worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 wins for a few years.  But we really have no idea.

are you telling me someone got a hold of Ja Rule

Well the police.  But I think I just misunderstood the direction of the statement…

I’m just wondering what we would have projected to had he not gotten the hip injruy - which I figured would be him hitting his 50% each year since 2008 or so, and it’d probably be close to what he did in 2009.

We can figure that out.  I’ll do a post about it.

[18] But this is a year with a 43 year old closer, so we are screwed.

[22] Best I can do for optimism is the 1982 Cardinals won the WS with 43 year old Jim Kaat throwing 75 IP out of the pen.  However, Sutter was the closer.

[23] Reference to Boras’s pro-Soriano pitch earlier this offseason.

[24] Ah yes I forgot about that.  But I became curious about teams with 43 year old relief pitchers.  There aren’t many, best team (as far as playoff result) with a 43 year old reliever was probably those 1982 Cardinals.  So there you go; a team with a 43 year old reliever throwing more than 50 IP indeed HAS won the series!

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