The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Thursday, December 16, 2010

NBC Sports - Report: Yanks ‘getting close’ with Feliciano

Feliz Navidad!

According to Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record, the Yankees are “getting close” on Pedro Feliciano.

The rubber-armed left-hander has also drawn interest from the Red Sox and Phillies, among others.

Feliciano’s a lefty-specialist who throws a fastball that averages around 87 mph, but what makes him good is his slider, and to a lesser extent, his changeup.  Over the past three seasons here are his splits vs. LHB and RHB.

split pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb so gdp hbp avg obp slg wOBA ip cera
vs RHB as LHP 345 289 94 14 1 9 50 55 11 1 .325 .420 .474 .357 68.7 6.22
vs LHB as LHP 414 377 80 17 1 6 24 110 13 8 .212 .271 .310 .261 103.3 2.12

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
cera: Component ERA


That .420 OBP vs. RHB includes 18 intentional walks, so keep that in mind.  Even if you take those out he has still gotten hit at a .325/.367/.474 clip against righties so you obviously don’t want him facing too many of them.  But he’s definitely someone that can help the team versus lefties.

I’ve mentioned this in the past but it bears repeating.  The value of a player like Feliciano can’t really be assessed using a simple runs saved above/below replacement.  He’s a tactical option that can be utilized specifically in high-leverage situations in ways that can have a much bigger impact on win expectancy. 


It’s almost certain that barring a significant trade the Yankees will project to be worse than the Red Sox heading into the season.  However, the gap is probably not going to be huge.  If Boston’s a 95 win team and the Yankees are a 90 win team, if they were the only two teams in the division then we’d expect Boston to have something like a 53% chance at the division compared to the Yankees at 47%.

If you assume a replacement-level reliever has a 6.00 RA against a lefty batter and Feliciano is 2.50, then in one PA the difference in run value is only 0.128 runs.  However, if that situation comes up with the tying run on third and the go-ahead run on second in the eighth inning and with David Ortiz at the plate in a game in Fenway park, its leverage is huge.  Not just in that game, but in the way we’d expect the season to play out.  Boston should be expected to win those home games against the Yankees, and that’s part of the reason they would be favored to win the division.  If Feliciano gets Ortiz out there, then now maybe the Red Sox are a 94 win team and the Yankees are a 91 win team.  Suddenly Boston’s division winning odds are 52% and the Yankees’ are 48%.

It’s also worth noting that the Red Sox lineup is heavily left-handed with Crawford, Ellsbury,Gonzalez, Ortiz and Drew.

I’ve been thinking a lot about what Texas did at the end of the year and in the postseason, stocking their 40 man roster with relievers that they could pick and choose from in ways that would give them a slight edge in different postseason series depending on the matchups, and it’s another way I think the Yankees could pick up a win around the margins.  Load up on lefties that you can move up and down from the minors depending on whatever space you have on the 40 man and then play the options game prior to a series with Boston.  The Yankees have Boone Logan, Robert Fish, Steve Garrison and Damaso Marte as lefties on the 40 man roster right now(although there are indications Marte’s not pitching in 2011) so perhaps they’re thinking along these lines.

Of course the truth is Boston’s about a 130 win team and the Yankees are maybe an 80 win team, so Boston’s odds for the division would only drop from 81% to 80%, but hey it’s the holiday season so we can dream the unthinkable, right?

So yeah, I like this move if it comes to pass.

--Posted at 1:03 pm by SG / 135 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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You made up the names Robert Fish and Steve Garrison, didn’t you?

“The value of a player like Feliciano can’t really be assessed using a simple runs saved above/below replacement.  He’s a tactical option that can be utilized specifically in high-leverage situations in ways that can have a much bigger impact on win expectancy.”

One can at least observe how he has been used - I’d think to first order changing teams shouldn’t affect his opponent handedness split.

“However, if that situation comes up with the tying run on third and the go-ahead run on second in the eighth inning and with David Ortiz at the plate in a game in Fenway park”

Don’t you just want Mo there, or Robertson if he’s good next year, or Joba if he’s not starting?  Or does handedness really dominate?

Don’t you just want Mo there, or Robertson if he’s good next year, or Joba if he’s not starting?  Or does handedness really dominate?

Handedness is really important, even though it can be frustrating to watch a parade of pitchers coming into face one batter each.

You have to look at it on a case-by-case basis.  My guess is the first choice is Mo, but if his usage needs to be a bit more restricted due to his age or any health concerns you then look at Robertson/Chamberlain vs. lefties or Feliciano Logan. 

I’m fairly certain Feliciano then Logan is a better option than Robertson or Chamberlain in that spot, but that becomes less certain if the LHB that’s due up either has a better than expected platoon ratio against LHP or is likely to be pinch-hit for.

Change eighth to seventh and there’s probably no question about who to bring in there.

Heyman reporting Magglio to re-sign a 1yr/10m deal with the Tigers.  Should we have done that deal if we could have?

Hey SG,

Thanks for the nice shout-out in yesterday’s post; just saw it now. It’s been a lot of fun bantering with you about the CAIRO projections in the comments.

Speaking of CAIRO, I took a look at Bobby Jenks today and was wondering whether his CAIRO projection would change at all as a Yankee? I’m guessing if so, it would be pretty minimal—maybe a slight downtick in FIP, getting away from U.S. Cellular, although then again it’s not as if DNYS is Target Field.

Take a look at the picture of Feller.  First of all, the leg kick!

Second, he appears to be pitching on a makeshift field atop the ruined remains of the Fuhrerbunker.

On a tangent, when did pitchers start using the stretch?  I know we’ve talked about this before but can’t remember if anyone had an answer or if it’s “since always”.

EDIT:  Sorry, link.

Speaking of CAIRO, I took a look at Bobby Jenks today and was wondering whether his CAIRO projection would change at all as a Yankee? I’m guessing if so, it would be pretty minimal—maybe a slight downtick in FIP, getting away from U.S. Cellular, although then again it’s not as if DNYS is Target Field.

He’d be a hair better as a Yankee since US Cellular boosts HRs more than DNYS in my projections:

4.41 RA, 4.11 ERA, 3.74 FIP as a White Sock.

4.31 RA, 4.01 ERA, 3.54 FIP as a Yank.

[6] Speaking of Feller, I saw an interesting comment on players of his generation (no link, because it’s not from a sports website):

Like many athletes of his era, Feller lost several years of his prime to World War II, when he was a chief petty officer aboard the USS Alabama. Our reporter Eric Lach, a big baseball fan, just remarked to me: “Sometimes I imagine how’d we’d feel about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan if LeBron and Derek Jeter were riding Humvees.”

[9] “If I had 10 divisions of those men, then our troubles here would be over very quickly.”

Send LeBron there, please.

Feller&  Wood only 2 to strikeout their age in mlb history

Ugh: The Red Sox are on the verge of a deal with Bobby Jenks, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). Jenks, who is looking for “closer money,” appears to be drawing lots of interest.

Assuming Jenks is off the board, would we be in on Soriano?

[13] Cashman should get Jenks.Is just absurd that the Red Sox will outbid the Yankees for Jenks.

Or maybe Cashman’s like, “Fuck it.  You don’t want my money, Cliff Lee?  Then NONE OF YOU are getting ANY OF MY MONEY.  Punks.”

If the scrappy small-market Sox sign Jenks, their payroll would have to be close to the capitalist behemoth’s of Gotham.

Soriano is a type A FA. They can’t lose their picks for a reliever. I can’t believe this is happenning

[16] I don’t want a masochist as GM of the Yankees.

Done deal, according to Olney: Jenks to the Sox for 2yr/12m.

What is Cashman thinking? Jenks to the Sox will mean a lot to them, they will have 3 very good relievers in their bullpen while the Yanks will have only one. I am getting sick of this offseason

Perhaps irrationally, but I’m more pissed about this than not signing Lee.

[21] I totally hear that bro.

I hate Cashman

Fuck this noise.  Why didn’t Cash just give the beached whale for 2yr/13m?  I hope that elfin connecticutian has something up his sleeve.

Derek Jeter is too old to be drafted, which has to be factored into his value.

Maybe if they offered Jeter a captaincy he’d enlist to fight in Afghanistan.

[22] Me too. This was a very good move for the Yanks and Red Sox. Jenks is a great pitcher and was the chance to buy low on him.

For better or worse, I think the Yankees might be in on Soriano.

Its getting worser and worser does Cash not know that Jenks’s peripherals were excellent this year?  We don’t get Lee or Wood or Jenks or even Magglio who I would have taken at 10mil/1.  Who’s out there that can improve this team now other then Soriano?  Could Cash have some unexpected surprise up his sleeve?

22: I echo that sentiment, is Cash still rappelling down from some building in an audition for The Amazing Race?

Carig: “Girardi said Martin could also help spell Alex Rodriguez at third base.”

[29] I don’t know how to analyze a potential Soriano signing.  People rightly point to losing our first-rounder in a deep draft, but if we signed him for four years, would it likely be a net gain, depending on cost and given his projection?

[33]No. Just forget about this season and get a good draft. Wait for Montero and the B’s to be MLB ready to compete in 2012 and beyond.

I think the decision to sign Soriano, at least from their perspective, may turn on how susceptible to injury they think Mo is.

[34] This is one of those times that I wish I didn’t live in Boston. 

Of course it’s nothing like ‘04, when they canceled the season after game 3 of the ALCS.

Well, Theo is basically going all in on this year.  Expectations will be high, which will make a possible failed WS attempt more enjoyable from our point of view.

Here’s to hoping Jenks ends up pulling a Gagne.

Kevin Towers owes us a favor.  Time for him to give us Upton for Pena and Nunez.

The eleventy billion frat boys named Sully will love Jenks here.

I hear Cash is in on Aaaron Heilman and is trying to lure Karsay out of retirement.

I don’t see much of a market out there for Soriano.  Who needs a closer and will be willing to pay him?

[40] “I hear Cash is in on Aaaron Heilman….”

Dood you just gave Heilman a triple A rating he must be teh awesome.

So far we have signed a non-tendered catcher with a broken hip still in need of knee surgery.

[43] You forgot that also we overpayed for to iconic Yankees.

[37] I’d say they’re all in on 2011 and 2012. Jenks is a cushion for when Papelbon walks after next year, which is a near certainty. We won’t be desperate for a closer next winter regardless, but if Bard steps up then we won’t be locked into Jenks forever either. Good move by Theo. Sorry guys.

Eh, the white goatee thing probably meant Jenks wouldn’t have signed anyway.

[43] Yeah, but he was the best non-tendered catcher with a broken hip still in need of knee surgery on the market!

[44] Aren’t they going to fight in Afghanistan someplace?

Do not sign Soriano, didn’t want Jenks.  What are the minors for if not relief arms?

I wish the Phillies win the WS.

Sorry guys.

Sorry for what? I have no problem with the RS doing everything they can to win. The Yankees have the resources to nullify (or at least counter) virtually any move they make. Cash chose not to do that with Jenks. His remaining moves this offseason will likely reveal the reason he chose that path.

[51]  Just as the remaining moves in my life will reveal the reason I chose my path.  Or is there a path at all?

[52] That’s deep.

This is appalling.  Malpractice.

[51] Cool. I just didn’t want to sound like I’m gloating about adding a 28th ace. We’re one LOOGY away from fully loaded. As long as Beckett is healthy, Dice is mechanically and psychologically sound, Salty is ready to catch… OK, NVM.

Aw shit.  Yanks looking at Freddy Garcia.

[56] I’d rather look at Freddy Krueger.

Heyman on the FAN doubts we’re in on Soriano and suggests Soriano wants upwards of 10 million per for 3 years.

FWIW, Heyman said he was told by a Yankee official (whatever that is) that they aren’t in on Soriano.

Edit: Or what bebop said.

does he want a pony too?

[60]  That’s silly.  He wants a thoroughbred, a descendant of the Godolphin Arabian.

He’s asking an awful lot.

Watch Epstein swoop in and snatch Pedro Feliciano from under Cashman’s nose…for less than the Yankees offer, because he just loves hanging out at Faneuil Hall.

Lucchino’s and Scarecrow’s fangs are dripping with malicious glee.

63 or he thinks Boston Legal is real and he’s got a legal problem that only James Spader or Kirk can fix.

[65] That would be F-Rod in need of Spader and Kirk.

[63] or he loves the smell of the T.

“a legal problem that only Kirk can fix”

Kirk walks out of a courtroom with the defendent he represents.  Classmate [blonde, blue hair, low cut Academy uniform suitable to voluptuous aliens], gaping, leaning forward into the camera POV to touch his arm: “How is it that your defendent isn’t in the brig?  Nobody gets past Judge Maru - he’s been programmed to hang everyone!”  Kirk, pulling enormous phaser out of his tight uniform pants, drawls, “I shot him.  I don’t like to lose.”

Gasparini and I tried but failed to interest von Fanning in our movie project.

Why are the Braves extending Uggla?  Can’t Uggla extend himself?

Any of the local script-interns should feel free to professionalize [68].

Why don’t just play the WS between RS and Pha during the Xmas break and then start the off season on Jan 2 accelerating all contracts one year.

Feinsand: Source: Yankees “exploring” Rafael Soriano

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/yankees/2010/12/source-yankees-exploring-rafae.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+nydnrss/blogs/yankees+(Blogs/Blogging+the+Bombers)

[72] The national interest would be piqued by this matchup of two scrappy underdogs who made it to the WS despite their meager resources.

[69] It didn’t escape my notice that your last project was centered around River Phoenix, Heath Ledger, Corey Haim, Denise Borino-Quinn, and Justin Mentell, and a planned cameo by Natasha Richardson, with a script by Irving Ravetch and Furio Scarpelli and publicity by Ronni Chasen.

“exploring”

What base is that again?

[68] No, that’s pro stuff.

[63] or he loves the smell of the T.

That reminds me, back in July I rode the T to Fenway and a “gentleman” stepped on who preceded to move to the back of the the last car, which I was occupying among others.  Slowly but surely, we all started to noticed a horrific stink which I can only describe as some combination of urine and goat dander.  Within 3 minutes, one by one people started to head to the next car with their shirt sleeves covering their noses.

I’ve never smelled something so powerfully pungent since.

[77] Yeah, I bet, Mr. “Let’s get David Raskin or Elmer Bernstein or Roberto Pregadio to write the score”.  If you do manage to sign Bill Lubtchansky to shoot the film maybe I’ll think about it.

[78]  I’m guessing you never discovered a dead rat in your attic crawlspace after having just returned from a short vacation in August?  And also you’re hungover and nauseated.

EDIT:  This did not happen on the T.

[79]  What the fuck.  Now you’re going all Joe Ezsterhas on us?

[81] Wikipedia isn’t helping me understand this, though the article is worth reading.  Apropos, re “Showgirls”, which I haven’t seen (yet?): “Eszterhas’ own explanation of the failure of that film, according to his recent book, was that it was ruined by the sexual affair between its director and its female star.”

If you do manage to sign Bill Lubtchansky to shoot the film maybe I’ll think about it.

I have some bad news for you…..

“I have some bad news for you…”

Is he no longer dead?  Since when?

[68]
INT COURT HALLWAY

Kirk pushes through the courtroom doorway, the defendant hurries behind. We hear sounds of shock and disarray from the courtroom. Kirk confidently continues his walk down the hallway, parting the crowd before him. His client is nervous, glancing backwards.

The sound crests again as a Starfleet Academy student, early 20s humanoid but noticeably alien, blue haired with blond streaks, unreasonably attractive and so top heavy that she appears to be constantly falling forwards, emerges from the court room and pushes through the crowd towards Kirk. She catches up to Kirk and stops him with a hand on his arm.

Kirk turns, deliberately and, upon recognizing the hand, with a gregarious and disarming smile.

She leans into Kirk as she speaks.

FEMALE STUDENT
(breathlessly) How is it that your defendant isn’t in the brig? Nobody gets past Judge Maru. He’s been programmed to hang EVERYONE!

Kirk smirks and drops a hand to his pants. He pulls out a phaser.

KIRK
I shot him.
(beat)
I don’t like to lose.

[81]  Joe E was, if my memory of Spy magazine serves me, was pretty vocal in asserting what he thought should happen with “his” films.

EDIT:  Which is another way of saying, Did you hear about the Polish actress?

She slept with the writer.

[85] Thanks.  “(beat)” is just what I wanted and didn’t know how to say.  But I’m sorry you lost the blue hair, maybe green? and the lean.  Also, is “Kirk smirks” the kind of thing one bothers specifying?

[87] fixed. I missed the alien bit. and unless you’re writing for yourself it’s generally not a good idea to write in lighting and shot choices.

I tend to over-specify when writing. Helps with visualizing it. It all changes by/in production anyway.

Recent Buster Olney tweet:

Heard this from two sources: With the Jenks signing, BoSox payroll is actually higher than NYY. But the Yankees still have moves to come.

Joel Sherman via MLBTR says the Yanks are not after Soriano.

89 NOOOOOO

Is it true that the Cubs signed Wood for one year and 1.5 million? That’s the biggest joke this offseason

[92]  Yeah, couldn’t believe that.  I thought I read last night 2/12.  For 1.5 I’da brought him back but I guess he did turn down more from the White Sox.

[89] I can’t actually figure out how that is accurate?

[94] Is cot’s updated yet?

For the jenksenvious and sorianolustful: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/relievers-are-not-worth-multi-year-deals/

I think Shatner is on record as saying, “The writer can tell me to pull out a phaser, but he can’t tell me to smirk. I might smirk, and I then again, I might not.”

92 that’s what I was going to ask, the non evil Sox team offered him 3.5, where were we?  Has Cash talked about Jenks or Woods?

Is Cashman on the Verge Of Collapse?

Son of a bitch.  I stay home for the plumber, who never shows, my father in law’s horse wins for a change.  At least I got a bet down.

Whose your horse?

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