Run it through CAIRO so Granderson finishes higher.

It’s tough for me to trust defensive numbers so implicitly that it would cause me to select Ellsbury over Granderson for MVP. I mean, has Ellsbury played defense so much better than Granderson that it more than overcomes ~24 points of wOBA? No way in hell.

No way in hell.

Eh.  I have Granderson as about nine runs better than Ellsbury on offense.  Is it that implausible that Ellsbury is say +5 and Granderson’s -5?

It doesn’t really matter, because anyone other than Bautista is a bad selection right now.  It could change by the end of the year, but I’d be surprised.

You know you only get to vote for ten, right?

You’d better hope that Gonzalez doesn’t slip out of the top ten, or you’ll get crucified for leaving him off your “real” hypothetical ballot at the end of the season.

It could change by the end of the year, but I’d be surprised.

I really wouldn’t.  E.g. going by the FanGraphs numbers, if Bautista repeats his June he’ll get maybe another half-win, putting him at 8.3 WAR?  If Granderson stays hot for the next 5 weeks, he could get 2 WAR (or more) putting him at 8.2.  Easily within the error range (in fact Dave Cameron yesterday said about a win is the error range).  And of course Granderson is *not* the closest in WAR to Bautista.

I certainly *expect* Bautists to maintain his edge.  But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he doesn’t.  AJ catching CC for Yankee lead in pitching WAR?  *That* would surprise me.

[2] - Agreed.  I have huge issues with defensive stats as well.  Especially when they put Gardner and Miguel Cabrera on equal footing.

What exactly is the case against Gonzalez? I see a WAR that is heavily discounted by his baserunning. Do we really take that as seriously as hitting and defense? I wouldn’t swap Gonzalez for ten Ian Kinslers.

Fangrafs:
Ellsbury + 11.2 defense
Granderson -9.2

Discuss?

Do we really take that as seriously as hitting and defense?

Yes. But, if you don’t trust it, then ignore it.  Make sure you do it for everyone.  But just take it out, recompute WAR, and see where he shows up.

[8] Through May 28th, Swisher had 193PA and an OPS of .609.  193PA is roughly the equivalent sample-size of defense to this point.  IOW, we know it isn’t a good indicator of true-talent as Swisher has shown us.  However, Swisher *did* put up a .609 OPS over that timeframe, and we aren’t going to adjust those 193PA to reflect his true-talent.  Part of the difference in defense I believe is just that, SSS.  However, to date that’s what these guys have done (approximately).

[8]
Fangraphs:
Seattle Sox Fan
Fandom -48
Spelling -5

[8] One thought is that Gardner is messing with Granderson’s #s, though I think that would have to be somewhat indirect, e.g. by changing the difficulty spectrum of the chances Granderson sees.

Yes. But, if you don’t trust it, then ignore it.  Make sure you do it for everyone.  But just take it out, recompute WAR, and see where he shows up.

I had some time to kill so I did this for you SSF.  Taking out defense and baserunning, here are the adjusted RAR for the top 35 fWAR leaders.  A-Gone still isn’t anywhere near #2.  In fact the difference between Bautista and Granderson is smaller than the difference between Granderson and A-Gone. 

Jose Bautista - 72.8
Matt Kemp - 63.2
Curtis Granderson - 63
Ryan Braun - 58.8
Joey Votto - 57.4
Adrian Gonzalez - 52.9
Jacoby Ellsbury - 51.9
Troy Tulowitzki - 51.2
Miguel Cabrera - 49
Dustin Pedroia - 48.9
Alex Avila - 48.1
Shane Victorino - 48
Prince Fielder - 47.8
Jose Reyes - 47.8
Lance Berkman - 45.4
Robinson Cano - 45.1
Ben Zobrist - 45
Justin Upton - 43.9
Andrew McCutchen - 43.7
Matt Holliday - 42.8
Jhonny Peralta - 40
Alex Gordon - 38.7
Albert Pujols - 37.7
Kevin Youkilis - 37.6
Ian Kinsler - 36.8
Mike Stanton - 36.1
Yunel Escobar - 34.9
Mark Teixeira - 31.7
Cameron Maybin - 29.7
Howie Kendrick - 28.6
Peter Bourjos - 25.8
Adrian Beltre - 25.5
Brandon Phillips - 25
Alexei Ramirez - 23.4
Brett Gardner - 18.5

Boston Red Sox fandom:
Resentment: infinity
Rationality: subhuman

You know you only get to vote for ten, right?

Actually, I don’t get to vote for any.

In the theoretical world where I do get to vote, I’m just showing the people who are probably still candidates heading into the final month.  We should be able to to whittle it down to 10 by the end of the season.

I really wouldn’t.  E.g. going by the FanGraphs numbers, if Bautista repeats his June he’ll get maybe another half-win, putting him at 8.3 WAR? If Granderson stays hot for the next 5 weeks, he could get 2 WAR (or more) putting him at 8.2.

So if Bautista repeats what was far and away his worst month of the season and Granderson plays better than he has over any 34 game stretch of this season they’ll end up as roughly equivalent?  Sure, it could happen, but it’d still surprise me.

Even if one regresses the UZR numbers of the various contenders to the mean, it doesn’t make Granderson the MVP.  He’s been excellent, and it’s nice to see him get some recognition, but he ain’t the MVP.

Pedroia’s case, more than any other I think, is really heavy on defensive value.  The thing is I’m convinced at this point that he really is an excellent defensive player, so I don’t find it hard to believe he’s having a great season w/the glove. 

Offense various, sometimes dramatically.  The same can be true for defense, I figure.  It strikes me as entirely possible for a guy to be -10 one year and +10 the next.  When it gets to +20/-20 I do start to get suspicious.

I think it’s fine to be skeptical - use an amalgam of all the defensive stats, regress to the mean, or even concoct a formula that weights the stuff you’re sure of (offense) heavier than defense (say 2/3 - 1/3 mix).

[13] Hey, even if SSF wasn’t such a good guy there’s still hospitium.

[16]  Although I agree, we must remember that A.  He lives among them and B.  He’s Mel Hall.

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/09/21/sports/sports-people-baseball-bad-tip-on-mel-hall-draws-agents-apology.html

Office Sullivan and his ilk can’t tell the difference between a drug dealer and child molester here.  That’s cuz they’ve repressed their memories of being altar boys.

[18] Bad tip and Sullivan and flying while black got me to NYT vs Sullivan, which was a confusing place for my head to be.