I claim you have a bug - the average gap should be 0, and it’s about 4.1.  Or maybe the linear weights are a bit off this year.

Or maybe the linear weights are a bit off this year.

I think that’s the issue.  I have to play around with them.

Edit: Looks like a bug.  I’ve got ROE for pitchers but not hitters, so outs are not equal and it’s not summing to zero.  For some reason BB Ref has them with the pitchers but on a separate page for the hitters.  I’ll fix it.

Edit2: Fixed.

[1], [2].  I appreciate you doing the thinking and fact-checking for me.

[3] I appreciate you appreciating them.

Poor Pittsburgh.

“Edit2: Fixed.”

I’m still confused - RA-bRA sums to 150, ..S.. to 152.

I’m still confused - RA-bRA sums to 150, ..S.. to 152.

It’s fixed on my computer. does that count? 

Looks like I didn’t copy all the columns over, but I’m away from my laptop now so can’t update it.

SG, at what number of games would you expect a team’s W-L, pythag, and/or bRA to stabilize around its actual true talent level?  I would assume that SSS applies even to team bRA, but at point in a season does “luck” cease to be a significant factor when we are comparing one team to another?

SG, at what number of games would you expect a team’s W-L, pythag, and/or bRA to stabilize around its actual true talent level?

The problem is that team talent level isn’t static.  So if you’re trying to figure out how good a team is at a snapshot in time, you’d have to account for not just performance anomalies, but also for roster changes and/or actual player talent level changes.  It’s fair to say that any assessment of the Yankees that used a productive Jorge Posada at DH is now wrong, and it’s also probably fair to say that any assessment that assumed Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia would be replacement level is also wrong.  And how much do we read into their performance while Alex Rodriguez has been out and how much does his return change things?

I’d say by August you should have a pretty good idea of how good a team is since it’s unlikely they’ll make any significant roster changes.  But that should not just be based on what they’ve done so far.  It should factor in other information that you may have, be it scouting info or statistical/projection info. 

I like to point to the 2009 Yankees.  Whenever I saw a piece talking about the postseason Yankees being a 95 win pythag team it annoyed me.  The postseason Yankees didn’t have Chien-Ming Wang, Sergio Mitre and Anthony Claggett giving up 101 runs in 95 innings, and they didn’t have Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa combining for 110 PA of 36 OPS+.