The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Friday, January 13, 2012

Montero/Noesi for Pineda/Campos? Kuroda signed?

@GregJohnsMLB Greg Johns
No confirmation from team, but source says Mariners sending Pineda and Jose Campos to Yankees for Jesus Montero/Hector Noesi.

First thought is that I don’t like this.  But I’ll do an analysis on it tomorrow.

Update: I like this better.

Big night for the Yankees. They have agreed to a 1-year deal with Kuroda, pending a physical. Deal will be between $10 and $11 million.

The Yankees will have the best 7 man rotation in baseball.  Who needs a DH, really?

Update v2:  Projections for Pineda and Kuroda as Yankees

Player Michael Pineda
mlbam_id 501381
Age 23
80% 32 32 12 9 193 159 81 75 19 53 3 195 3.77 3.49 3.12 50 5.0
65% 30 30 11 10 185 158 84 78 21 54 4 180 4.07 3.77 3.45 41 4.1
Baseline 28 28 10 9 168 150 82 76 21 53 5 157 4.37 4.06 3.79 32 3.2
35% 22 22 7 8 134 125 70 65 19 45 5 121 4.67 4.35 4.13 21 2.1
20% 19 19 6 7 118 114 65 61 18 42 5 101 4.98 4.64 4.46 14 1.4
Player Hiroki Kuroda
mlbam_id 493133
Age 37
80% 33 33 13 9 202 199 90 78 18 43 3 155 4.00 3.49 3.32 47 4.7
65% 31 31 12 9 191 196 91 80 20 44 4 141 4.29 3.75 3.62 38 3.8
Baseline 29 29 11 9 182 193 92 81 21 45 5 128 4.57 4.01 3.92 31 3.1
35% 24 24 8 8 146 160 79 69 19 39 5 98 4.86 4.28 4.22 20 2.0
20% 21 21 7 7 127 145 73 64 18 36 5 82 5.14 4.54 4.52 13 1.3

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

The Yankees added two pitchers that project to be better than their second starter a few hours ago.  I hate losing Jesus Montero’s long-term potential, but truthfully, his CAIRO projection as a DH was barely above replacement level.  The Yankees may regret this trade at some point, but it makes them stronger in 2012 and at least they traded Montero for a 23 year old with five years of team control left and with a big-time arm. 

Back of envelope projection says that as long as they add a league average bat to serve as either the primary DH or to play all over the field while they DH the regulars, they went from something like:

CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 5.5 WAR
Ivan Nova, 190 IP, 2.0 WAR
Phil Hughes, 175 IP, 1.9 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 175 IP, 1.2 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 150 IP, 2.2 WAR
Hector Noesi, 50 IP, 0.0 WAR
Adam Warren, 25 IP, 0.0 WAR
David Phelps, 15 IP, 0.0 WAR
Starters, 1000 IP, 12.8 WAR

to something more like:

CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 5.5 WAR
Hiroki Kuroda, 180 IP, 2.3 WAR
Michael Pineda, 175 IP, 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova, 175 IP, 1.8 WAR
Phil Hughes, 100 IP, 1.1 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 100 IP, 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 100 IP, 1.4 WAR
Starters, 1050 IP, 15.2 WAR

I am being somewhat conservative on innings with Pineda and Nova by design, and if the Yankees would dump Burnett I’d give his innings to Hughes and Garcia and it would make them look even better. 

They’ve probably added about three wins tonight, which if added to the last batch of still early and mostly useless projections makes them the best team in baseball.  Yay.

--Posted at 8:26 pm by SG / 135 Comments | - (0)


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They signed Kuroda, too. All of a sudden the Yankees added 2 very good pitchers.

off to buy a Mets hat…

LR, given Pineda can stay healthy with that elbow, it should be an okay trade. I’m just concerned since he will be a two pitch, FB pitcher at NYS. And I’m in the camp that thinks Montero=Edgar Martinez/Frank Thomas.

But things are looking up- we got Kiruda!

So now they have eight starters and no DH.  Yippee…

[2] Seriously?

Pineda’s a seriously good pitcher with 5 years of control.  This isn’t John F****** Danks.

And with Kuroda too?  This team is by far the class of MLB now.  Especially once they add another DH (Pena? Lee? Damon?, hell even Jorge).

I’m guessing AJ is heading out of town with a truckload of cash.

[4] AJ’s gotta be toast, and a DH is coming.

How about Betemit?  He could play 60 games at 3B, and let ARod DH those games, and another 50 at DH.  Just keep him away from LHP.

I’m reading people justifying this trade by saying Montero is just going to be a DH - at which point I stop listening because thinking about a great hitting DH for the Mariners gives me bad flashbacks.

the rapidly declining offense is a big problem…and I love Jesus

Did they wait for Jorge to retire before pulling the trigger on this one?

They’re going to trade Betances for a hitter, either a 3B and move Rodriguez to DH, or a DH.  If all goes well with Betances he might be Pineda.

um… so


Our rotation just got turned upside down in about 20 minutes. Where the hell does Burnett go? Doesn’t Freddy Garcia have a guaranteed contract? Is Hughes going to the bullpen or getting traded? Is a Burnett salary dump imminent?

You’re missing the obvious.

Pineda will pitch the seventh.

Hughes to the pen, Burnett traded, right? Not much room for either of them, and with so much insurance at AAA there isn’t a glaring need for SP depth.

[11]  Burnett and ~$15M go on a long, permanent road trip.

Barring injury, whoever looks better of Hughes or Garcia in ST is the #5, the other is long relief, until somebody goes down.

I would pay $100 to see the look on AJ Burnett’s face right now.

Pineda’s FB tendencies scare me. As does our offense. But…at least the offseason isn’t boring anymore? Hope everyone’s kept their complaint muscles in tact.

I want to keep Hughes, but I feel like we should try trading him at this point, with Betances even, for a 3b. Probably talking out of my ass right now, especially since Phil’s value is pretty low at the moment. And I don’t think any 3b are available.

[14] Always thought that was easier said than done. Established MLB pitchers don’t take too kindly to losing their jobs when they are still sitting at home during the winter.  Hell, I can’t imagine Garcia signed his contracting thinking he would be fighting for a rotation spot.

I hope they found somewhere to send Burnett.

SG- Quick take at what this did to the Yankees project?

+Pineda,-Burnett,+Kuroda,-Garcia or Hughes (whoever was worse). That’s gotta be 2 wins, maybe 2.5.

I left work and all of this happened. HOLY SHIT!

Losing Montero really makes me sad, but getting Pineda in return is pretty damn sweet. I don’t know how I feel about this yet. Campos seems interesting, any scouting report?

Need a DH? There’s this Prince Fielder guy I heard is pretty good.

“+Pineda,-Burnett,+Kuroda,-Garcia or Hughes (whoever was worse). That’s gotta be 2 wins, maybe 2.5. “

I’d say quite a bit more than that.  You weren’t getting through 162 games with CC/Nova/Burnett/Hughes/Garcia.

Kuroda and Pineda are replacing ~350 IP of Burnett/Garcia/Hughes, and Hughes and Garcia are replacing ~300 IP of Noesi/Phelps/Warren etc.

I’d say +4 wins at least.  With the Yankees SP depth now, they’re should be no replacement level SPs pitching at all this year.

+Pineda,-Burnett,+Kuroda,-Garcia or Hughes (whoever was worse). That’s gotta be 2 wins, maybe 2.5.

Depends on what they do with DH.  They’ve also just lost 40 games of Montero catching and replaced it with Cervelli.

Figure somewhere between 1.5 - 2 wins, but I’ll get some projections up shortly.

Nunez at third sucks, imo, but I was thinking—-Jorge Vazquez, DH? I know he’s probably more of AAAA player, but he killed AAA and the Winter League he was in.

EDIT: Never mind. Looked at his line. Ugly OBP.

[20] lol.

I’m still flabbergasted by this trade. Montero and Noesi clearly have greatly inflated their value from a year and a half ago when Montero+ couldn’t net Cliff Lee at the end of his contract.

Pineda is really good, but Montero is/was something special. We waited so long for him.

[19]“Campos seems interesting, any scouting report? “

As per Sickels:

“Jose Campos, RHP, Grade B: We need to see him at higher levels and his secondary stuff needs refinement, but his upside is very high, he throws hard, and already throws strikes”

20 y.o.  ~2.40 FIP in Rookie and A- ball the last 2 years.

In A- ~9.3 K/9, ~1.5 BB/9.

What will jew for montero’s new handle be?  I suggest “Dummy Hoy.”

Wasn’t Kuroda demanding multiple years?  How did this happen?

[25] Get him some Nardi Contreras.

What will jew for montero’s new handle be?

Rube has to be in his new handle.

[26] Appears like the Yankees were the only ones with $ left.

Who held right handed hitters to the lowest average in baseball last season? Pin, that’s who! You don’t mess with the Pin!

[29] Tomorrow Oswalt signs for daily soup and bread crusts.

[31]  “The starting pitcher for the Oakland A’s, number 00, Roy Oswalt.”

The Mariners need the star power of Jesus way more than the Yankees ever will.
Get it, star power? Nintendo owns the Mariners.

Seriously, though, if Jesus becomes 30-120, he sells tickets. People will pay to see home runs, it’s a fact!

The Yankees do not need help selling tickets. (They need help filling the seats.) The Yanks need to win and they need a rotation they can rely on to pitch well this season and in the future.

If Pineda can be that guy without the friendly help of Safeco field, the Yanks made a great deal. Time will tell, Cash Man.

[33]  I feel a little bad for Montero going to Safeco.

That stadium absolutely sucks for RH power hitters.

BTW, this is a good enough time for me to point out that Pineda came out as the 14th best pitcher in baseball with over 80 IP according to SnuGGLe which is now available for critique: - no park adjustments.

I mentioned this in the other thread but never checked for responses, so I’ll repost..

It became clear to me that Montero was a not going to catch for the Yankees. He wasn’t going to play 1B, and they never broke him in at another position. He had more value to a team that will let him catch.

Like you, I was super excited to see what Montero would do for the Yankees. But does it make sense to have a bat like that DH when his value presumably increases for any other team you trade him to? I don’t know too much about Pineda, but I do know that at age 22 he pitched 170 pretty damn good major league innings. That’s special, also.

I studied outside once.

Oops, wrong thread.

2012: CC-Pineda-Kuroda-Nova-Garcia
2013-16: CC-Hamels-Pineda-Nova-Banuelos/Betances

Not that farfetched..

[36] Kinda how I feel. It was clear that the Yankees were going to find a place for Montero to play, one of those possible places was on another team. Also, I think Noesi is going to thrive in Safeco.

How about Jones @ DH vs lefties and Carlos Pena vs righties?

Also, I think Noesi is going to thrive in Safeco.

I think so too.  And Montero’s stats will look a bit less impressive there.

The only real concern here is that Pineda’s a pitcher and he’s more likely to get hurt.  I think it’s a fair trade, and don’t like it more because I’m emotionally invested in Montero than for any other reason.

And I love the Kuroda signing.

They’ve also just lost 40 games of Montero catching and replaced it with Cervelli.

I don’t actually believe that Montero was going to catch those games.  Remember last September when Martin and Cervelli went down and they flew a vacationing Austin Romine to LA?

I am more convcined than ever the Yanks were never going to try Jesus behind the plate.

Dammit. Who’s the next positional prospect for me to obsess over now? Mason Williams? DB2? Any study on Pineda’s arm motion and injury history. I will vomit with rage if Jesus is jacking up 45 HRs in the Pacific NW and Pineda is setting up camp in Dr Andrew’s waiting room.

Carlos Pena vs righties?

I’d think Matsui or Damon would be more likely.

Dammit. Who’s the next positional prospect for me to obsess over now? Mason Williams? DB2?

Williams is my guy.  And Gary Sanchez might make losing Montero less painful in a couple of years.

41. I’m with ya. Kuroda will be moving from the NL West to the AL East but he gets swings and misses with his slider, especially against right-handed hitters. The ability to miss bats will ease his transition. In a somewhat related note, I thought Miami was a great place for Buerhle to end up, being a control pitcher who relies on weak contact and ground balls. Random, I know, but a sub three ERA, great season would not shock me.

The other thing too is that this still aligns with the payroll objectives for 2014 - we traded a cheap, potentially elite young hitter for a cheap potentially elite young pitcher and signed a good durable pitcher to a 1 year deal.

Anyone here seen Sugar, the baseball movie? I’d like to think that Pineda is our own Miguel Santos, now ready to play in NY on the biggest stage for the team he’s probably heard about his entire life in the DR. And yes I am creating a phony emotional attachment simply to deal with the loss of Jesus. And hope for none of that ineffectiveness/injury/runaway stuff.

[43] I think it’s a race between Williams and Bichette, the latter of whom seems to be a men amongst boys at this point.

Oh, and don’t forget that what may have figured into the calculus here was Austin Romine and, perhaps moreso, Gary Sanchez, who is showing up not just on top 10 lists for the Yankees, but top 3 and top 5 lists.

I think once Russell Martin showed that he could be a quality catcher for this team Montero’s days were numbered.

Yeah, I was excited to see Montero play, but I think you have to like this move.  Pineda is the same age as montero and already has struck out a batter per in the major leagues with better than a 3:1 K:BB. Campos looks really good, throws 97, doesn’t walk anyone, and is 19. I don’t see how this is a bad move for the Yanks, especially since they really want Russell behind the plate for the next couple of years because of his skills defensively.

A friend just texted me to ask if now they sign Fielder to DH. I mean, I am sure they don’t. But if they did…

But there is no way.

[44] Really? Neither Damon nor Matsui were very good vs righties last year. Might be cool for the reunion tour factor though.

[50]  If there’s no multi-year deal Fielder/Boras like, is 1/22 so crazy?

Fielder gets to exploit DNYS for a year, and fatten his numbers for another run at FA.

[52] I like this idea, and the market seems like it might be heading in that direction, but I think even a one year deal is out of the budget. With Kuroda and arb raises they’re already near or above 200m

Bobby Abreu/Andruw Jones platoon at DH could be pretty effective, right? Angels have a logjam at DH and I think Abreu is at the end of his contract. Swing a minor deal for Bobby, and use Dickerson more next season in the field, opposed to Jones?

[53] The Yankees can afford anything, if it’s only a 1-year deal.

But I agree, Fielder is very unlikely.  I’m betting Carlos Pena.

[44] Really? Neither Damon nor Matsui were very good vs righties last year. Might be cool for the reunion tour factor though.

I’m thinking that whomever they add needs to be able to play some position besides 1B.  Either 3B or corner OF.  Maybe Matsui can’t really do that though.

According to CAIRO, here are the best free agents in terms of projected wOBA vs. RHP:

Wilson Betemit .352
Russell Branyan .348
Prince Fielder .403
Raul Ibanez .349
Carlos Pena .365

Pena’s the best option for hitter vs. RHP, but Betemit has the cachet of being able to stand at 3B.  I guess I’d be fine with Branyan too. 

[50]  If there’s no multi-year deal Fielder/Boras like, is 1/22 so crazy?

I think you’d have to go 1/$25-30M.

Where the fucking fuck did this come from? Goddammit. This is an outrage of the highest order. How could Cash do it? To us? After all these years? How could he actually make a deal with Jack Z?

[54] I think Bobby’s at the end of the line.  No interest in paying him $9M.

Unless LAA is eating half the contract, and taking a C- prospect back, I’d rather just sign Pena.

I think you’d have to go 1/$25-30M.

Exactly what I was thinking. For 1 year he’d want ARod/Pujols money.

[56] “I think you’d have to go 1/$25-30M. “

On a 1-year deal, it barely matters.

That would be a F-ing A lineup though.

Betemit seems to make sense. He can play 1B/2B/3B and SS in a 17 inning game.

48 hours aways from a NYG/Packers playoff game in Lambeau, and I want the MLB season to start tonight! How many more days ‘til pitchers and catchers?

[0] Why are Pineda’s and Kuroda’s WAR so much lower in your rotation projections than in their regular projections?

Why are Pineda’s and Kuroda’s WAR so much lower in your rotation projections than in their regular projections?

Looks like my team spreadsheet is wonky.  The regular projections are right I think.  I’m heading out but I’ll check in the morning.

[64] That puts the new rotation at about 17 WAR

Montero, 22, was considered the Yankees likely DH for the upcoming season and is one of the top offensive players in the game.

Slow it down, NYP.

I really wanted to see Jesus become Manny or Piazza but I’ll get over it. Well done Mr. Cashman.

Betemit is the final piece.  Arod, Jeter, Betemit and Nunez to share the three positions of 3rd, SS, and DH.  Heck, I’d almost consider making ARod the full time DH in that situation, but the PR hit (and the hit to his pride) would be too much.  So you start the season with him at 3rd, and every time he has the slightest bump or bruise you give him 3 game stretches at DH.

Looks like MLBTR is confirming what I thought - Pena is probably the bestest option.

Hm, I was really looking forward to the Age of Montero.  But this does appear to be a good move.

Ack, I’m torn.

Who held right handed hitters to the lowest average in baseball last season? Pin, that’s who! You don’t mess with the Pin!

You’re welcome, bitches. It’s all in the wrist.

Wait, what ?

[0] Why are Pineda’s and Kuroda’s WAR so much lower in your rotation projections than in their regular projections?

Eh, pre-NYY adjustment. Duh.

Oh, and, I would accept Damon or Matsui as DH ^2 if ARod can’t play the defense. Or hit anymore.

AJ Burnett sleeps with the fishes. Take the cannoli.

My head says this is a good night. That crap rotation is now a strength. But damn, I already miss Jesus.

I’m kind of worried about the offense of 2013 onwards. Even Cano is now 29 and all the exciting prospects are years away.

Edit: But Betances and Hughes look very tradeable right now. Maybe another shoe is about to drop.

But damn, I already miss Jesus.

Take it easy, man. You’re being very un-dude. Hayzus will be back in about 11 years when it’s time for us to pay him for his performance to other teams and we need a one-dimensional player. Providing we don’t also extend A-Rod, Tex, Grandy, Cano, Martin, or…

I know the Mariners wanted hitting, but this move seems like a win now and sell the future kind of move for them.  They perhaps get a bit better in the short term and potentially much worse in the long run depending on how Campos develops. 

Seems like Jack Z is just trying to save his job at this point.

Long fixed Pena’s swing awhile back right? A reunion in NYS might not be so bad, although he won’t make a big impact. Then again, no remaining bats, besides Fielder, will.

Can we get some NYY news this off-season?

Same conflictedness as the rest of you.  But hard to dispute that Pineda had proven more at the ML level than Jesus, and how often do can’t-miss prospects miss?
Hard to get excited at the thought of Betemit as DH, though.  I wonder whether there might be options (involving a trade) beyond the obvious.

[75]“Then again, no remaining bats, besides Fielder, will.”

Pena could easily give you a 120 OPS+ or better vs. RHP.  Betemit about 110.

That’s all you need with Jones to handle the LHP.

Pineda looks like what Joba could have been, except not as good

[72] AJ, Betances and Bichette for Brett Lawrie (totally ridiculous trade proposal away!)

What about Alex Gordon, or has the ship totally sailed on him as a 3B?

how often do can’t-miss prospects miss?


Pena could easily give you a 120 OPS+ or better vs. RHP.

eh, let’s just imagine I actually found a youtube clip of the monkey crawling out of the dudes butt scene from Bruce Almighty from before RIAA made them take it down.

According to multiple reports, the Yankees have traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos. Jon Heyman, Greg Johns, Larry Stone, and Jerry Crasnick all deserve some level of credit.

I always thought they were just media guys, never realized how much power those four had.

[79] You better start smoking the objective pipe.

Toronto ain’t trading a 21 y.o. Canadian top prospect who debuted with a 152 OPS+.

If we need someone who can fake 3B, Betemit is as good as anyone that would be available in trade.

Haven’t posted in a long time but had to give my input on this.

I love Montero. But, in today’s world you get very, very few chances to trade for young ACE type pitchers.

The Montero “hometown prospect” value inflation is a BIT crazy here. Yes, he is damn good. Sure, we could use young talented hitters to be the future once everyone gets (or is already) old. No, we won’t get a shot at such a young prospect (LOOK at his minor league track record, his pretty freaking good-for-his-age performance in his first year in the majors). Yes, we need pitching.

It hurts to lose Montero. But Pineda’s on the short list of people I would trade Montero for.

I’m likening Jose Campos to Arodys Vizcaino.

[85] Womby!

The dude gave up HRs to Scott Sizemore and Endy Chavez last year.  What a bum.

[87] Hangin on, counting the hours till parole.


Carlos Pena could easily hit 35 dingers in DNYS.

This sort of gladdened my heart:

Just a few days after meeting with the representatives for free agent Edwin Jackson, the Yankees became the talk of the industry on what had been a slow Friday night with their stealth move for Pineda, who, at 22, already is within sight of becoming an ace.

“He’s got that kind of stuff,” a scout who spent part of last summer focusing on AL West clubs said Friday night. “If you wanted to be conservative, he’s a No. 2. He’s got velocity, he came up with a slider that got better and better last year and he throws strikes. When he gives up a home run or a hard-hit ball, it does not chase him out of the strike zone.

“He’s got that rare combination of stuff and control. He’s young, he’s not afraid, he’s big, he’s still growing and he’s got makeup. He’s a prize.

“And the Yankees will have, what, five years of control over him? He’s the kind of guy you build around. Holy cow.”

The Mariners were worried about rushing him too quickly last summer when they installed him into their rotation coming out of spring training. He pretty much immediately showed them, no sweat.

By season’s end, over 28 starts, he struck out 173 hitters while walking just 55 over 171 innings. His average fastball was clocked at 94.7 m.p.h., according to FanGraphs.

What’s notable about that? The fastballs of only three other AL starters checked in higher: Texas’ Alexi Ogando, Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s David Price.

Kuroda? He turns 37 next month. But he gave the Dodgers 202 innings in 2011, going 13-16 with a 3.07 ERA. He’s a competitor with fierce pride.

“Solid No. 3,” the scout said. “He throws strikes, he’s got good stuff, a crisp fastball that’s deceptive and he throws harder than people think. He’s at 90 to 94 with sink down in the zone, a crisp breaking ball and a good split.

“He’s got out pitches. I’d love to have Kuroda.”

Now the Yankees do. And Pineda. And Sabathia and Nova and Hughes and Burnett. ...

And as they search for a hitter, for now, they’ve still got 6-8 right-hander Dellin Betances and lefty Manny Banuelos, who opened many eyes last spring.

“Hanging onto Betances and Banuelos [and with Pineda on board], they’ve got three young-gun studs who should pitch for them for a long time,” the scout said. “And Nova’s not that old and Hughes isn’t that old.

“They’ve got the makings of a young, under-control staff.”

Carlos Pena could easily hit 35 dingers in DNYS.

Carlos ? Shit. I thought y’all were talking about Ramiro and were effin nutz.

Now Carlos, yeah we could be talking about something. He’s still got hsi appendix and everything….

Pineda, who, at 22, already is within sight of becoming an ace

Yep, his locker is within 40 feet or so of the Ace. Maybe less. This doesn’t even get into the whole metric thing, which makes things even closer.

Um, so are Yankees still going after Edwin?

LoHud comment:

“Honestly It’s really hard to root for a team like this that is soul-less and just throws money at mercenaries to save the day rather than letting their young players shine.”

[95] And here I thought Don was dead all this time…

Do you think Cashman did to Hal what Levine did to him? Or did they work together to fake on E-Jax so that Kuroda took the offer?

Um, so are Yankees still going after Edwin?

Edwin Encarnacion? Maybe. They need a 3B.

It occurs to me that Heybrain’s report of the Yanks’ interest in Pena could be Borassian disinformation.

I’m pretty excited about these moves and have to think we’re not done.  We’ll get another bat and maybe dump AJ, who sucks.  In any event one of Hughes, Alfredo Garcia or Swamp Turkey is likely to go.

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