The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, September 5, 2011

Monte Carlo Standings and Postseason Odds Through September 4, 2011

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 99 63 870 657 63.0% 36.7% 99.7%
Red Sox 98 64 860 694 36.9% 62.3% 99.3%
Rays 87 75 705 630 0.1% 0.9% 1.0%
Blue Jays 79 83 745 749 - - -
Orioles 64 98 694 841 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Tigers 89 73 740 724 94.2% - 94.2%
White Sox 82 80 672 681 4.0% - 4.0%
Indians 80 82 688 720 1.9% - 1.9%
Twins 71 91 662 791 - - -
Royals 67 95 706 782 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Rangers 91 71 815 696 92.1% 0.0% 92.1%
Angels 86 76 666 650 7.9% 0.0% 7.9%
Athletics 75 87 654 668 - - -
Mariners 69 93 574 678 - - -
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Phillies 103 59 736 555 98.0% 2.0% 100.0%
Braves 94 68 678 605 2.0% 95.4% 97.4%
Mets 80 82 723 733 - 0.0% 0.0%
Nationals 75 87 632 688 - - -
Marlins 73 89 647 717 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Brewers 95 67 723 659 98.7% 0.2% 98.9%
Cardinals 86 76 761 714 1.3% 2.1% 3.3%
Reds 81 81 751 711 - - -
Pirates 74 88 633 706 - - -
Cubs 70 92 664 768 - - -
Astros 56 106 610 787 - - -
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Diamondbacks 89 73 713 689 83.2% 0.1% 83.3%
Giants 85 77 575 585 15.9% 0.3% 16.2%
Dodgers 80 82 641 630 0.8% 0.0% 0.8%
Rockies 78 84 744 751 0.1% - 0.1%
Padres 71 91 614 637 - - -

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)

Not looking like too much suspense aside from seeding at this point.

--Posted at 9:14 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Still plenty of time for the Angels to make a race of it…

other than that I can’t remember a season like this in the WC era. The WC was created to bring more excitement to the end of the season and it more or less has done that. This one season is the quintessential “exception that proves the rule.” Nevertheless, MLB bigwigs will use it as evidence that we need a SECOND wild card team. Blech.

One thing that non-Yankee/Red Sox fans should remember in their nostalgia for the two-division era is that NYY/TWN would be the only tight race right now besides Arizona/Atlanta in the NL West, meaning there would be even more obsession over the Yankees and Red Sox in the sports media than usual. Which they profess to hate!

I wouldn’t have guessed we were a 2-1 favorite to win the East considering Townies have the tie breaker and there are 3 games remaining between the two teams.

Forget about the Division. Townies not only have the tiebreaker, they’ve got our number. Well, that and 7 games against the B-mo City Bucks, which is 7 guaranteed wins.

Interesting thing: CC’s ERA has risen (3.47 vs. 2.72) in the second half (4.68 in August), but his K rate has jumped from 7.5/9 to 10.0/9 and his BB rate has dropped slightly from 2.16/9 to 1.98/9. He’s given up more homers (thanks, Tampa Bay game) and also had a fairly absurd .402 BABIP in August (not that he wasn’t given up plenty of line drives). Anyway, CC’s risen his overall 2011 K rate to 8.7/9, which is well higher than the previous two years and the second highest of his career after 2008. His K/BB is now 4.14, the highest besides ‘08 and his Cy Young season in 2007.

C.C.‘s August was kind of icky with its two losses and AJ-esque ERA, and even through the Oakland and Minnesota games we didn’t like how he looked, but he still had over a strikeout per inning and a 9-1 K/BB in the month. It’s a nice reminder that he’s an absolutely awesome pitcher, and a great ace, and worth whatever the Yankees wind up paying him before/after he opts out.

P.S. Was at the game in section 203 yesterday. First time at the DNYS. Although the Disgrace with regards to the right field wall is even more obvious in person (try looking at the wall from near the foul pole in right towards center; “same dimensions” indeed), I did really like the stadium, and it was a super fun game. And Swisher is even more awesome than I knew.

Not sure whether it’d be better to face TEX or DET in the first round, but winning the division over BTE would sure be nice.

Well, that and 7 games against the B-mo City Bucks, which is 7 guaranteed wins.

I count six.

The biggest problem the Yankees have is having zero off days and having to make a West Coast trip.  They’ve got two more home games than Boston (10 home/13 road vs. 8 home/13 road).  Having reinforcements on the roster should help deal with the fatigue of no off days but it also means a weaker team taking the field more often.

[7] There’s a double-header on the 19th - presumably a rainout make-up ?

[7] There’s a double-header on the 19th - presumably a rainout make-up ?

Ah, ok.  It’s a makeup for a game that was postponed on May 17.  I still had that game as being unplayed on its original date in my simulator.

I was just wishing you’d do another one of these, and here it is! Thanks SG!

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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