The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

MLB Leaders in Linear Weights Batting Runs: 2009 - July 17, 2012

Player pa avg/obp/slg br
Miguel Cabrera 2425 .331/.415/.580 454
Albert Pujols 2443 .307/.398/.578 449
Prince Fielder 2520 .289/.406/.539 436
Joey Votto 2281 .321/.426/.571 432
Ryan Braun 2395 .317/.384/.557 427
Adrian Gonzalez 2472 .303/.392/.518 405
Robinson Cano 2437 .315/.364/.537 394
Mark Teixeira 2469 .263/.360/.511 382
Jose Bautista 2136 .265/.391/.558 374
Matt Holliday 2249 .310/.391/.522 374
Paul Konerko 2236 .300/.381/.527 365
David Ortiz 2217 .279/.374/.530 362
Billy Butler 2390 .302/.369/.476 351
Matt Kemp 2185 .295/.360/.521 346
Andrew McCutchen 2190 .293/.375/.492 345
Curtis Granderson 2332 .253/.342/.496 342
Hunter Pence 2371 .290/.347/.478 332
Ben Zobrist 2299 .265/.367/.453 331
Troy Tulowitzki 1966 .302/.375/.547 329
Carlos Gonzalez 1865 .315/.372/.562 327
Justin Upton 2185 .285/.363/.486 327
Dan Uggla 2382 .250/.346/.461 327
Nick Swisher 2214 .265/.364/.483 326
David Wright 2110 .295/.377/.479 322
Michael Young 2372 .307/.352/.456 321
Ian Kinsler 2240 .265/.350/.460 319
Shin-Soo Choo 2065 .292/.385/.469 318
Derek Jeter 2473 .301/.365/.408 317
Nick Markakis 2386 .290/.355/.435 317
Evan Longoria 2003 .277/.367/.512 316
Andre Ethier 2149 .286/.364/.480 316
Adam Dunn 2199 .231/.356/.472 315
Josh Hamilton 1832 .311/.365/.560 314
Jayson Werth 2090 .266/.364/.474 314
Shane Victorino 2318 .272/.341/.442 313
Ryan Howard 1993 .268/.353/.521 310
Dustin Pedroia 2134 .293/.369/.456 308
Michael Cuddyer 2250 .274/.337/.467 307
Michael Bourn 2416 .287/.350/.386 307
Hanley Ramirez 2039 .293/.370/.472 306
Ryan Zimmerman 2067 .289/.362/.485 304
Ichiro Suzuki 2529 .304/.341/.389 302
Joe Mauer 1878 .333/.412/.487 301
Brandon Phillips 2355 .284/.337/.443 300
Adrian Beltre 2003 .302/.340/.509 298
Mark Reynolds 2132 .226/.332/.477 296
Kevin Youkilis 1787 .286/.392/.510 294
Alex Rodriguez 1929 .276/.365/.490 292
Carlos Pena 2146 .213/.343/.450 290
Josh Willingham 1886 .260/.365/.495 289

br: Linear weights batting runs, not adjusted for park or position.

Having a 2B who hits like a top-flight 1B or LF is a wonderful thing.

--Posted at 8:29 am by SG / 27 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

I love how he’s figured out enough plate discipline to really become a monster hitter.  And putting in the work to become at least a solid defensive player.

After watching Soriano *not* do either of those things.

I’m guessing Teixeira jumped up the list in the last 50 games.  I can’t imagine he was high up after the first 40 games.

[2] He probably wasn’t much different.  I mean, look at the guys right behind him; it isn’t like Bautista, Holliday, Konerko, and Ortiz have been having poor seasons.

Blah blah . . .  changes underlying assumptions . . . Yankees look better . . . blah blah . . .

5 in the top 30.  Not bad.

I love how he’s figured out enough plate discipline to really become a monster hitter.  And putting in the work to become at least a solid defensive player.

Me too.  Coming into this year I thought it was debatable that Cano wasn’t any better than Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler overall.  I think he’s ending that debate pretty convincingly now.

It’s going to cost a lot of money to keep him, but they have to, don’t they?

I’m guessing Teixeira jumped up the list in the last 50 games.

I don’t think 50 games matters when you’re looking at a span of 3.5 seasons.  As annoying as Teixeira’s apparent decline has seemed, it’s mitigated by the fact that offensive levels are down for everyone and that he’s still pretty productive even if he’s not hitting as many singles as he used to.

That’s going back to 2009, right ? Because Pooh-hole is terrible this year, Teix is, too, etc. etc.

And Alex was a monster in 2009, and look how far he’s fallen from the top ranks.

[6] Yes, he’s going to cost a lot of money but damnit, we’re talking about the New York Yankees.  They have to keep him.  He’s their best player, and he’s in his prime.

I always had Kinsler as a step down from Pedroia & Cano.  Mighty Midget has been hurt this year, so it’s a bit hard to call it for Cano at this point.  At their best, Pedroia’s the better fielder & baserunner who can stay close enough to Robbie w/the bat that he can be more valueable overall (though I strongly suspect Fenway is giving him a significant boost, such that if we’re talking about some neutral offensive environment, it’s clear edge Robinson).  I’d give it a few more seasons before making a final call.  So long as he doesn’t somehow re-enact 2008, I suspect Robinson will indeed come out on top.

Me too.  Coming into this year I thought it was debatable that Cano wasn’t any better than Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler overall.  I think he’s ending that debate pretty convincingly now.

You know, I used to be a public booster of Cano, while secretly admitting that Pedroia was better, at least up until the last year or two. However, as your chart shows Cano took a step forward from being a very good 2B-man to being one of the best hitters in the game. Anyone who makes the argument that Cano is not, very clearly, the best 2B in baseball right now isn’t paying attention or is simply being contrary.

I don’t think there’s any debate that Cano is the best-hitting 2B in baseball.  The question is whether Pedroia makes up the gap in offense with his glove.  He may, but durability probably swings things back in Cano’s favor.  Staying healthy is a skill.

Now’s the time to give Cano an extension (if Boras will let him take it now), when he’s still far enough away from free agency that the risk of injury over that relatively long period of time might be an incentive to accept an extension.

If it gets to free agency, we’ll pay a lot more and risk dealing with more of the decline years that 2nd-basemen almost always seem to experience.

I think they’ll extend him in the offseason.  I don’t think they’ll do it now because then they are going to get questions about Swisher.

Cano, B-WAR:

2008: -0.2
2009: 4.1
2010: 7.8
2011: 5.2
2012: 4.8 (8.6 pace).

Total: 21.7

F-War is very similar (21.3).  The peaks and valleys are smoothed, but the end result is basically the same.

Mighty Midget:

2008: 6.8
2009: 5.5
2010: 3.1
2011: 7.8
2012: 1.3 (2.3 pace)

Total: 24.5

F-War: just like w/Cano, it’s almost the same in the end (24.4).

If you drop 2008, Cano takes the lead.  If you project 2012 out, even assuming MM gets back on the field and plays well, his lead grows.

Career batting line, Fenway Park:

Cano: .346/.384/.575. = .959

Speck of Dust: .318/.382/.496 = .878

For comparison, Cano OPS’s .853 at home (and .852 away!), while the little guy OPS’s .774 away.

SSS of course, but everything points in one direction, that Cano is the superior hitter and it’s not all that close. I also believe that Cano comes out ahead as the better overall player.

I love Cano’s line at Fenway.  I get the impression that Sox fans are (justifiably) terrified of him.

Pedroia’s home/road splits have always been way off.  He’s a very good player but still a product of Fenway.  I’d take Cano any day.

I remember in one of these debates a few years back someone posited that Pedroia’s all-out swing and tendency to pull the ball aiming for the monster seats would cause him some injury problems down the line. On the other hand, according to this theory, Cano’s sweet stroke would keep him healthy and productive for years to come, at least until he inevitably turns into Carlos Baerga. Real biomechanical mumbo jumbo but it sounded great to a dunderhead like me.

Seems like Pedroia’s been off the field a lot lately, while Cano’s averaged 160 games played the last 5 seasons. Any wise person care to comment on the original thesis?

[6] Teixeira’s been stroking the ball pretty well lately - close to .950 OPS since the end of May (I can’t remember if that’s with the monster game against the AAAA As or without).  Either way, I’ll stop kvetching about his contract.  Thanks for keeping your head down and working hard Mark.

And I think you’re right in that a lot of WOE complaints, despite the Yankees pretty much running the AL, is that overall offense is depressed while we remember the good ol’ steroid days.  It’s like 1985 all over again.

Looking at the FanGraphs WAR comparison tool, Cano and Pedroia have been fairly similar (in terms of value) up until this point.  Pedroia’s peak was higher than Cano’s, but Cano’s has been longer.  And of course Pedroia seems to be breaking down, while Cano seems to be improving.  So when all is said and done…IDK.  I have a feeling Cano will have had the better career, and Red Sox fans will complain it is only because Pedroia got unlucky and got hurt.

[19] Using the BBRef gamelogs, if I pick the beginning of the Oakland series on May 25th, Teix has 194PA and has put up a .275/.381/.606 batting line.  Full season pace would have him with 47HR and 94BB.  It was the 172 PA before then that he had only a .226/.291/.381 line.  Thats a 20HR/56BB pace.

We know that he’s both a slow starter, had the vocal chord issue, AND was messing around with his batting stance in the first part of the season.  Hopefully the last 194 PA are more indicative of who the “real” Teixeira is…but I’ll take full-season Teix who’s still on pace for a 4-5WAR season.

It’s a shame Utley has the body of an 80 year old man. Until 2010ish he was on the mountain top for 2b.

Mark Reynolds 2132 .226/.332/.477 296
Kevin Youkilis 1787 .286/.392/.510 294
Alex Rodriguez 1929 .276/.365/.490 292

Who was it who said I my Mark Reynolds at DH suggestion was stupid?

[23] Reynolds has been worth 69 runs per 500PA over that time frame.  ARod 76.  So 7 runs isn’t a small amount…but either way I think the issue with Reynolds is that he was great in 2009 (wRC+ of 128), poor for a DH in 2010 (wRC+ of 96), and only OK in 2011 (116), while providing no value on defense.  And that they would need to pull off a trade with the Orioles to get him.

I doubt I said it was stupid and I don’t think it would have been going into the season.  However, all said I’m happier having Ibanez essentially “for free”.

Who was it who said I my Mark Reynolds at DH suggestion was stupid?

Me.  I don’t think I said the suggestion was stupid though.  I said that Reynolds stinks, but after delving into it further I found that I was wrong.

[7] To say Pujols has been terrible this year is kind of unfair.  He had a horrific April and a sub-par May, but has been fine since then.

April: .217/.265/.304 (.243 wOBA, 48 wRC+, 61 OPS+)
May: .263/.309/.491 (.343 wOBA, 116 wRC+, 116 OPS+)
June: .326/.409/.568 (.407 wOBA, 160 wRC+, 166 OPS+)
July: .333/.429/.625 (.438 wOBA, 181 wRC+, 184 OPS+)

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