Wednesday, July 18, 2012
MLB Leaders in Linear Weights Batting Runs: 2009 - July 17, 2012
| Player | pa | avg/obp/slg | br |
| Miguel Cabrera | 2425 | .331/.415/.580 | 454 |
| Albert Pujols | 2443 | .307/.398/.578 | 449 |
| Prince Fielder | 2520 | .289/.406/.539 | 436 |
| Joey Votto | 2281 | .321/.426/.571 | 432 |
| Ryan Braun | 2395 | .317/.384/.557 | 427 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 2472 | .303/.392/.518 | 405 |
| Robinson Cano | 2437 | .315/.364/.537 | 394 |
| Mark Teixeira | 2469 | .263/.360/.511 | 382 |
| Jose Bautista | 2136 | .265/.391/.558 | 374 |
| Matt Holliday | 2249 | .310/.391/.522 | 374 |
| Paul Konerko | 2236 | .300/.381/.527 | 365 |
| David Ortiz | 2217 | .279/.374/.530 | 362 |
| Billy Butler | 2390 | .302/.369/.476 | 351 |
| Matt Kemp | 2185 | .295/.360/.521 | 346 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 2190 | .293/.375/.492 | 345 |
| Curtis Granderson | 2332 | .253/.342/.496 | 342 |
| Hunter Pence | 2371 | .290/.347/.478 | 332 |
| Ben Zobrist | 2299 | .265/.367/.453 | 331 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1966 | .302/.375/.547 | 329 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1865 | .315/.372/.562 | 327 |
| Justin Upton | 2185 | .285/.363/.486 | 327 |
| Dan Uggla | 2382 | .250/.346/.461 | 327 |
| Nick Swisher | 2214 | .265/.364/.483 | 326 |
| David Wright | 2110 | .295/.377/.479 | 322 |
| Michael Young | 2372 | .307/.352/.456 | 321 |
| Ian Kinsler | 2240 | .265/.350/.460 | 319 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 2065 | .292/.385/.469 | 318 |
| Derek Jeter | 2473 | .301/.365/.408 | 317 |
| Nick Markakis | 2386 | .290/.355/.435 | 317 |
| Evan Longoria | 2003 | .277/.367/.512 | 316 |
| Andre Ethier | 2149 | .286/.364/.480 | 316 |
| Adam Dunn | 2199 | .231/.356/.472 | 315 |
| Josh Hamilton | 1832 | .311/.365/.560 | 314 |
| Jayson Werth | 2090 | .266/.364/.474 | 314 |
| Shane Victorino | 2318 | .272/.341/.442 | 313 |
| Ryan Howard | 1993 | .268/.353/.521 | 310 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 2134 | .293/.369/.456 | 308 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 2250 | .274/.337/.467 | 307 |
| Michael Bourn | 2416 | .287/.350/.386 | 307 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 2039 | .293/.370/.472 | 306 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 2067 | .289/.362/.485 | 304 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 2529 | .304/.341/.389 | 302 |
| Joe Mauer | 1878 | .333/.412/.487 | 301 |
| Brandon Phillips | 2355 | .284/.337/.443 | 300 |
| Adrian Beltre | 2003 | .302/.340/.509 | 298 |
| Mark Reynolds | 2132 | .226/.332/.477 | 296 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 1787 | .286/.392/.510 | 294 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 1929 | .276/.365/.490 | 292 |
| Carlos Pena | 2146 | .213/.343/.450 | 290 |
| Josh Willingham | 1886 | .260/.365/.495 | 289 |
br: Linear weights batting runs, not adjusted for park or position.
Having a 2B who hits like a top-flight 1B or LF is a wonderful thing.
Comments
I love how he’s figured out enough plate discipline to really become a monster hitter. And putting in the work to become at least a solid defensive player.
After watching Soriano *not* do either of those things.
I’m guessing Teixeira jumped up the list in the last 50 games. I can’t imagine he was high up after the first 40 games.
[2] He probably wasn’t much different. I mean, look at the guys right behind him; it isn’t like Bautista, Holliday, Konerko, and Ortiz have been having poor seasons.
Blah blah . . . changes underlying assumptions . . . Yankees look better . . . blah blah . . .
5 in the top 30. Not bad.
I love how he’s figured out enough plate discipline to really become a monster hitter. And putting in the work to become at least a solid defensive player.
Me too. Coming into this year I thought it was debatable that Cano wasn’t any better than Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler overall. I think he’s ending that debate pretty convincingly now.
It’s going to cost a lot of money to keep him, but they have to, don’t they?
I’m guessing Teixeira jumped up the list in the last 50 games.
I don’t think 50 games matters when you’re looking at a span of 3.5 seasons. As annoying as Teixeira’s apparent decline has seemed, it’s mitigated by the fact that offensive levels are down for everyone and that he’s still pretty productive even if he’s not hitting as many singles as he used to.
That’s going back to 2009, right ? Because Pooh-hole is terrible this year, Teix is, too, etc. etc.
And Alex was a monster in 2009, and look how far he’s fallen from the top ranks.
[6] Yes, he’s going to cost a lot of money but damnit, we’re talking about the New York Yankees. They have to keep him. He’s their best player, and he’s in his prime.
I always had Kinsler as a step down from Pedroia & Cano. Mighty Midget has been hurt this year, so it’s a bit hard to call it for Cano at this point. At their best, Pedroia’s the better fielder & baserunner who can stay close enough to Robbie w/the bat that he can be more valueable overall (though I strongly suspect Fenway is giving him a significant boost, such that if we’re talking about some neutral offensive environment, it’s clear edge Robinson). I’d give it a few more seasons before making a final call. So long as he doesn’t somehow re-enact 2008, I suspect Robinson will indeed come out on top.
Me too. Coming into this year I thought it was debatable that Cano wasn’t any better than Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler overall. I think he’s ending that debate pretty convincingly now.
You know, I used to be a public booster of Cano, while secretly admitting that Pedroia was better, at least up until the last year or two. However, as your chart shows Cano took a step forward from being a very good 2B-man to being one of the best hitters in the game. Anyone who makes the argument that Cano is not, very clearly, the best 2B in baseball right now isn’t paying attention or is simply being contrary.
I don’t think there’s any debate that Cano is the best-hitting 2B in baseball. The question is whether Pedroia makes up the gap in offense with his glove. He may, but durability probably swings things back in Cano’s favor. Staying healthy is a skill.
Now’s the time to give Cano an extension (if Boras will let him take it now), when he’s still far enough away from free agency that the risk of injury over that relatively long period of time might be an incentive to accept an extension.
If it gets to free agency, we’ll pay a lot more and risk dealing with more of the decline years that 2nd-basemen almost always seem to experience.
I think they’ll extend him in the offseason. I don’t think they’ll do it now because then they are going to get questions about Swisher.
Cano, B-WAR:
2008: -0.2
2009: 4.1
2010: 7.8
2011: 5.2
2012: 4.8 (8.6 pace).
Total: 21.7
F-War is very similar (21.3). The peaks and valleys are smoothed, but the end result is basically the same.
Mighty Midget:
2008: 6.8
2009: 5.5
2010: 3.1
2011: 7.8
2012: 1.3 (2.3 pace)
Total: 24.5
F-War: just like w/Cano, it’s almost the same in the end (24.4).
If you drop 2008, Cano takes the lead. If you project 2012 out, even assuming MM gets back on the field and plays well, his lead grows.
Career batting line, Fenway Park:
Cano: .346/.384/.575. = .959
Speck of Dust: .318/.382/.496 = .878
For comparison, Cano OPS’s .853 at home (and .852 away!), while the little guy OPS’s .774 away.
SSS of course, but everything points in one direction, that Cano is the superior hitter and it’s not all that close. I also believe that Cano comes out ahead as the better overall player.
I love Cano’s line at Fenway. I get the impression that Sox fans are (justifiably) terrified of him.
Pedroia’s home/road splits have always been way off. He’s a very good player but still a product of Fenway. I’d take Cano any day.
I remember in one of these debates a few years back someone posited that Pedroia’s all-out swing and tendency to pull the ball aiming for the monster seats would cause him some injury problems down the line. On the other hand, according to this theory, Cano’s sweet stroke would keep him healthy and productive for years to come, at least until he inevitably turns into Carlos Baerga. Real biomechanical mumbo jumbo but it sounded great to a dunderhead like me.
Seems like Pedroia’s been off the field a lot lately, while Cano’s averaged 160 games played the last 5 seasons. Any wise person care to comment on the original thesis?
[6] Teixeira’s been stroking the ball pretty well lately - close to .950 OPS since the end of May (I can’t remember if that’s with the monster game against the AAAA As or without). Either way, I’ll stop kvetching about his contract. Thanks for keeping your head down and working hard Mark.
And I think you’re right in that a lot of WOE complaints, despite the Yankees pretty much running the AL, is that overall offense is depressed while we remember the good ol’ steroid days. It’s like 1985 all over again.
Looking at the FanGraphs WAR comparison tool, Cano and Pedroia have been fairly similar (in terms of value) up until this point. Pedroia’s peak was higher than Cano’s, but Cano’s has been longer. And of course Pedroia seems to be breaking down, while Cano seems to be improving. So when all is said and done…IDK. I have a feeling Cano will have had the better career, and Red Sox fans will complain it is only because Pedroia got unlucky and got hurt.
[19] Using the BBRef gamelogs, if I pick the beginning of the Oakland series on May 25th, Teix has 194PA and has put up a .275/.381/.606 batting line. Full season pace would have him with 47HR and 94BB. It was the 172 PA before then that he had only a .226/.291/.381 line. Thats a 20HR/56BB pace.
We know that he’s both a slow starter, had the vocal chord issue, AND was messing around with his batting stance in the first part of the season. Hopefully the last 194 PA are more indicative of who the “real” Teixeira is…but I’ll take full-season Teix who’s still on pace for a 4-5WAR season.
It’s a shame Utley has the body of an 80 year old man. Until 2010ish he was on the mountain top for 2b.
Mark Reynolds 2132 .226/.332/.477 296
Kevin Youkilis 1787 .286/.392/.510 294
Alex Rodriguez 1929 .276/.365/.490 292
Who was it who said I my Mark Reynolds at DH suggestion was stupid?
[23] Reynolds has been worth 69 runs per 500PA over that time frame. ARod 76. So 7 runs isn’t a small amount…but either way I think the issue with Reynolds is that he was great in 2009 (wRC+ of 128), poor for a DH in 2010 (wRC+ of 96), and only OK in 2011 (116), while providing no value on defense. And that they would need to pull off a trade with the Orioles to get him.
I doubt I said it was stupid and I don’t think it would have been going into the season. However, all said I’m happier having Ibanez essentially “for free”.
Who was it who said I my Mark Reynolds at DH suggestion was stupid?
Me. I don’t think I said the suggestion was stupid though. I said that Reynolds stinks, but after delving into it further I found that I was wrong.
Here’s the thread on Reynolds.
[7] To say Pujols has been terrible this year is kind of unfair. He had a horrific April and a sub-par May, but has been fine since then.
April: .217/.265/.304 (.243 wOBA, 48 wRC+, 61 OPS+)
May: .263/.309/.491 (.343 wOBA, 116 wRC+, 116 OPS+)
June: .326/.409/.568 (.407 wOBA, 160 wRC+, 166 OPS+)
July: .333/.429/.625 (.438 wOBA, 181 wRC+, 184 OPS+)
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