The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

MLB: IF David Adams (Yankees), LHP Robbie Erlin (Padres) Arizona Fall League Players of the Week

Scottsdale Scorpions infielder David Adams (Yankees) and Peoria Javelinas left-handed starting pitcher Robbie Erlin (Padres) are the Arizona Fall League’s week five player of the week and pitcher of the week, respectively.

Adams — The 6-1, 205-pound infielder hit three home runs while batting .571 for the week. He added 4 runs, 1 triple and 6 RBI. He led the league in home runs, extra-base hits (4) and total bases (17). His on-base and slugging percentages were .474 and 1.063, respectively.

Through the first five weeks of the Fall League season, the Margate, FL native was hitting .261 with 9 runs, 6 doubles, 1 triple, 3 home runs and 14 RBI and a .363 on-base percentage.

He also was the starting second baseman for the East Division in the November 3 Rising Stars Game.

Adams, 25, spent the 2012 season at Double-A Trenton where he hit .306 with eight homers and 48 RBI in 86 games. He is a .295 hitter over five minor-league seasons.

He was the Yankees’ third-round (106th overall) draft choice in 2008 out of the University of Virginia.

Adams lost a big chunk of development time over 2010-2011, his ages 23 and 24 seasons, due to a severe ankle injury.  He appears to be past that now and had a good year in Trenton and is doing pretty well in the AFL.  He’s mostly played 2B but saw some time at 3B this past season and he has a decent chance to make the Yankees out of spring training in a utility role.  CAIRO likes him a fair amount, projecting him at .256/.324/.390 which would be worth about 1.5 WAR over 600 PA.  If Adams has a good 2013 it may give the Yankees some ammunition when negotiating with Robinson Cano.  It’s one thing to lose a 5-6 win player without a viable fall-back, but a 1.5-2 win replacement makes it sting a bit less.

I’m not saying the Yankees shouldn’t try and re-sign Cano, because losing him would hurt a lot.  But I really don’t want to see him signed into his late 30s at “top of the market” dollars, and we know that’s what he’s looking for.

--Posted at 8:21 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)


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This news compensates for that Blue Jays/Marlins trade news.

Let Cano walk, try Joseph and Adams at the position.

I didn’t know the Marlins got Mathis.  That pretty much evens up that trade.

I still don’t understand how the Commissioners Office is letting this trade happen. Last year the Marlins were basically forced to spend a lot of money, had a disappointing year and now they are allowed to completed gut the team?

This is a joke.

The Yankees should be offering up anything they have for Stanton.

[4] The joke is on the city of Miami.  I wonder if any statements made by Loria to the city are actionable.  Probably not.

[6] Miami and baseball. At this point the comissioner and the owners need to force Loria to sell. Any organization thath allows Loria to own two franchises and refuses to allow Mark Cuban to own one is ridiculous.

The owners are a joke, but some of this is on the fans as well.  They spent the money last year but they still had one of the worst attendance figures for a team with a new ballpark ever.  Yes the team did suck but if the fans don’t come out you can’t continue to spend money.

[8] To be fair the team was not very good. But given how Loria has handled the team, I can’t really blame them. Both times the team was actually good, it was blown up. Why bother getting invested in a team that if it wins will just be traded away or lost to free agency the next year?

One of the reasons the Yankees are so popular and have such a dedicated fanbase is the long and generally consistent history of being good. And, especially under the Steinbrenner’s being dedicated to winning.

Remember when the Marlins financial statements were leaked while they were building the new taxpayer financed stadium? Loria is about as bad as it gets.

(8) As Yogi said, if they don’t want to come out, you can’t stop them. Florida may be fine for spring baseball, but it just doesn’t seem to warm up to 162 games.

In the NFL certain players would allow re-structuring of present contracts to allow teams to improve by adding talent. Is this allowed in MLB?  I agree that the last thing Yanks need is that of paying another player into late 30’s. If Adams or Joseph can be 80% of what Cano presents, then maybe give them a shot. Yanks have held to the model for 17 years to remain competitive. It may be that spending big to retain talent has finally caught up with them to the point that no flexibility exists.

[11] Teams can also just cut players and not pay their contracts in the NFL. I don’t think the MLB player’s union would ever allow that kind of contract restructuring.

It’s not on the fans, not in a legal sense anyway.  The city of Miami —and not the fans—was induced to fund the construction of the park, presumably based largely on what Loria and Samson represented to city officials.  Query whether they perpetrated a fraud.  I doubt it, because the bar to make out a claim of fraud is very high.  But if I were a lawyer for the city I’d be looking into the record. 

Legal considerations aside, Loria should blush red with shame.  But egocentric pricks who’ve made their fortune are typically alien to such an emotion.  I know because they’re frequently my clients.

[5] I had thought of this as well.  Not necessarily “anything” they have, but a lot.  Maybe Warren+Williams+Murphy+Marshall+$$?  Gives Miami 3 players that could probably start in 2013 (Murphy, Marshall, Warren) plus a high-end prospect (Yankees #1 by several sources).  Willing to swap Sanchez for Murphey.  Maybe even go a little higher but there are limits. 

If they can swing such a trade, I’d look to sign Stanton to a 10 year contract immediately.  10/100 seems fine to me, and would be hard for him to turn down.

(9)I agree with you Snuggles that fan support in NY is there because of Steinbrenner’s desire to win. The desire was there in the 80’s and 90’s but they didn’t win enough to make playoffs and desire was mixed with a lot of bad judgement that led to the 1989-1992 period and a suspension. The desire remained and combined with success since 1993 and it has yielded great attendance- particularly over the past ten years.  It’s interesting though for much of Mattingly’s career when Yankees hit homers into the lower right field bleachers often they were devoid of fans.  It’s not a given that those days could return should the winning ways decline into mediocrity.

No chance the Marlins trade Stanton since he doesn’t cost them anything. He’s in a shitty situation.

[16] He’s due to start making real money in 2014, if the Marlins are actually trying to stock their MiL system, the largest return for Stanton would be now, whe he is still earning ~league minimum.

[14] There is not a single player in the Yankees MiL system I would not give up for Stanton. I’m not saying I’d give them everything, but no one would be untouchble.

Also given that Stanton would probably come close to 10MM by arb2 I think he would probably want something closer to 15MM/year and would be totally worth it.

Hunter to Tigers.

I’m a little glad he’s not on the Yankees.

There is not a single player in the Yankees MiL system I would not give up for Stanton

Right, I would definitely also swap Heathcott or Austin for Williams, but figured that was a no-brainer since Williams is ranked higher than both of them.  I mean, Williams + Sanchez are considered the Yankees’ top-two prospects by most systems now, and are both likely top-50 overall players.  Them plus some ready to go pitchers with upside (Warren+Marshall), is a LOT.

Mike A at RAB just opined he would be willing to give up the entire top-4 for Stanton.  If the Yankees were a younger team with less future holes, I could see giving up that much.  But they aren’t, and if they give up too much now, then they’ll have to go outside the organization to fill other holes as well.  So they can’t afford to give up too much for one player.  However, having Stanton at $10M or even $15M per makes it easier to EITHER let Cano walk or sign him.  You can let him walk b/c you have an elite offensive player.  But you can sign him because even at $25M per, you’re still only $40M combined to get like 10-12 wins a year, and can afford to go cheap (hopefully with high-upside youngsters) at other positions.

I think if they were going to just buy out his arb years and 1 year of FA, they’d need to go higher AAV.  But $100M is $100M, and would be tough to turn down, especially as we’ve seen other elite young talents derailed by injury before getting their big payday.  E.g. Grady Sizemore had his last big season at age 25.  But yeah, I’d still be willing to go something like 10/150, especially if the last couple of years were team options.

[18] Agreed.  On a one year deal a nice player, but an excellent chance that he would be worth 1 WAR or less.  On a two year deal there’s a chance they could get 1 WAR total and be forced to find another RF anyway.  Hopefully they can be creative about getting some youth over there…

[19] Stanton fills one of the long term holes, so it’s not too bad, I’d try to hold on to Sanchez but everyone else would be fair game (I’m not sure Miami would want both Williams and Heathcott).

BTW Dave Cameron reporting Hunter got 2/26.  For that, I’m glad Yankees stayed out.

[21] One issue is that they would still have a long-term need for a least one other OF.  Maybe two as there are no guarantees how long Gardner will be around/effective.  Additionally, even if they can find the OF necessary, there will likely be other holes opening in the near future (1B which Austin could fill, SS, potentially 2B/3B, C if they trade Sanchez and Murphy doesn’t pan out, pitching).  So even if they don’t need the OF help, they may need the high-end prospects to trade for IF or pitching help.

I mean, I’d be willing to give up a lot.  But at some point even if the deal is “worth it” in isolation, it can set a team back to give up too many players.  However, the skinny is also that Marlins will likely hold onto Stanton for 2013 and maybe trade after season.  If so, gives the Yankees another year to see if they can get enough long-term holes filled to go all-in with prospects to get Stanton.  And/or show they have some ML caliber cheap players to trade while waiting for the higher-end talent to develop.

I never liked Hunter as a player.  I alwasy though he was a bit overrated.  Of course I formed that opinion before he became one of those “I got drastically better after my prime” players.

[24] Iguess the way I’m looking at is that Heathcott and Mason Willaims are both great talents (4-5 tool talents) but they both have serious question marks. Where as Stanton is more or less a sure thing right now. Austin and Sanchez have the fewest question marks in the Yankees MiL system (aside from Marhsall, maybe). Those two are the ones I would have to think more about to give up. But for Stanton, under team control? He’s the kind of player you give up a ton for, especially as a hitter since there is considerably less risk than a young pitcher (Pineda) brings.

[26] I guess to put another way, I’d be willing to give up any 2 of the Yankees’ top-4 prospects, and then some other stuff - including highly rated stuff.  That’s probably 2 top-50 players, plus some guys who look to be at least MLB talent.  That’s already a TON.  I just have difficulty going much higher, and adding 3 of their top 4 (all but Heathcott are probably top 100 prospects), or adding players like Hensley (who would be a PTB).

[27] - I’d give up 3 top 50 prospects in a heartbeat. 

Miguel Cabrera, through age 22 season: .300/.366/.523, 133 OPS+, 78 HR in 405 games
Giancarlo Stanton, thru age 22 season: .270/.350/.553, 140 OPS+, 93 HR in 373 games

Stanton is one of the few player in baseball (any level) that has true 80 power. He also makes decent contact and can walk and plays an above average RF.

Also off of sd’s numbers:
Cabrera: 9.8 fWAR (1.3, 2.8, 5.7) 8.6 bWAR (.5, 3.2, 4.9)
Stanton: 13.1 fWAR (2.8, 4.5, 5.8) 12 bWAR (2.7, 3.9, 5.4)

If (when?) the Marlins auction Giancarlo off to the highest bidder in terms of minor league talent, I would be quite surprised if the Yankees are any where near winning the auction. You have to think that Texas would be willing to offer Mike Olt and an inexpensive star shortstop.  I’m not even sure they’d be the high bidder.

[28] If I knew for a fact that Stanton’s career would mimic - or even exceed - Cabrera’s sure, I would do that in a second.  However, I don’t know that.  There is a lot of risk that Stanton goes backwards instead of forwards, and the normal risk of injury.  So it’s putting a lot of eggs in one basket. 

Yes, it is unlikely that more than 1 of the top 4 pan out.  But it’s still giving up an awful lot, when there are a LOT of holes going forward.  Now, if they are just blowing smoke about the austerity I’d be more open to it; though I don’t think there will be a ton of high-quality FA available for 2014, there may be some for later years.  But the Yankees likely will need to be filling a lot of roles with average, cheap player for several years.  They’ll need to maximize their talent in the minors to do so.

[30] Which would be a good reason to try to aquire him before there is “open bidding.”

[32] If Stanton were in his late 20s, I would buy this argument, but he’s not. He’s very young, less than 2 years older than some of the Yankees top prosepcts who are only ine A+/AA to start 2013. So it’s not like you’re mortgaging the future for the next few years, you are trading a few players (none of whom have Stanton’s upside) with solid potential for one player who is as close to guaranteed yearly All-Star level performance as you can get. Stanton is a franchise player and someone you absolutely empty the farm system for if given the opportunity.

Yes, it is unlikely that more than 1 of the top 4 pan out.

So it is unlikely that more than 1 will contribute significantly at the MLB level.  Doesn’t that make it extremely unlikely that 1 will contribute more significantly than Stanton at the MLB level?

[35] Even if all 4 pan out, it is unlikely that any of them contributes at a level even approaching Stanton, combined, sure but individually it is highly, highly unlikely.

Keep in mind that Stanton just finished his 22 y/o season, and has likely not hit his prime yet.

[34] I think in some cases yes, you can empty the farm for him.  I mean specifically in the Yankees’ case.  They have a lot of holes to fill over the next several years.  If they give up too many players for Stanton, they won’t be able to fill those holes.  Teams with only one or two great players and a bunch of below average ones aren’t that great, especially in the AL East.  If the Yankees had some more certaintity over the next 3-5 years at, well, ANY position, sure go for it.  But it’s VERY possible that by 2015, the only player from the current team still being expected to be above average is CC.  Stripping the farm could actually set the team back several years.

Now, if they don’t feel they can sign Cano and can get a couple of top-100 prospects for him, or get a top-100 for Granderson, I’d be more open to giving 3 or even 4 top 100 prospects for Stanton.  B/c Cano and Granderson wouldn’t be in the 2014 picture anyway, and they’d still have enough blocks to build around.

[35 & 36] (sigh) we’re just going to have to disagree.  I think you’re overrating Stanton.  He’s great, but he isn’t a generational talent like Harper or Trout.  I also think you’re underrating how valuable prospects are, not just as players that can contribute but also be trading chips.  I’d love to have Stanton and would trade a ton for him.  And there isn’t a lot of history of players with his pedigree and number of years of team control remaining being traded.  But I don’t think you’ll find many GM’s willing to give up that much, and with good reason.

Am I the only one upset that Cashman wasn’t in there trying to get Johnson? Wonder what it might’ve taken to get Johnson and Stanton as a package. Yanks/Cashman caught short again?

Considering Cashman’s track record when trading for pitching, I’m pretty happy he wasn’t in there trying to get Johnson.

So young players that are or seemingly could be available in the next couple of years:  Stanton, Headley, Justin Upton.  I wonder how many of those guys the Yankees could be in on with the assets in their farm system and major league assets like Cano, Granderson, Gardner, Hughes, Nova, Joba, Phelps, etc.

[41] Isn’t SD trying to make their park more hitter friendly? If so , they might try to hold on Headley long term as a core piece.

i am still upset about cestipedes.

[43] Aren’t we all? Dude could jump AND roast a pig, those are two rare talents to see in one guy.

Seriously. Maybe the Yankee IT department blocks Youtube?

[44] It’s true, what he says.  I can only do one of those things, and it’s gotten me pretty far.  If I had both skills? . . .  The mind boggles.

Stanton’s value just went up…

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