Did you switch FB and GB in the 2nd table? (green header)

Jeter is my favorite player, so ha.

I’m somewhat pessimistic about Jeter going forward, because even if his offense gets better his defense is almost certainly going to get worse.

I’m cautiously optimistic, about the bat at least.  If Jeter’s problem has been loss of quickness, the changes being implemented should help.  If it is batspeed through the hitting zone, we’re in trouble.  Long seems to know what he’s doing, and seems to think it is the former.  No, we won’t see 2009 again - at least not without a fluky-high BABIP - but I think we can still get a productive hitter.

Did you switch FB and GB in the 2nd table? (green header)

Oops, yeah.  I’ll fix it.

The analytics show that four years of suck awaiteth us.

His intangibles are off the chart.

“An average of -7 for the season means Jeter’s missing something like one play e
every four weeks.”

That should be invisible.  I would have thought he misses a play an average SS makes more like once a week, judging from the local commentariat reaction at least.

Apropos of nothing, this is sad.

“An average of -7 for the season means Jeter’s missing something like one play every four weeks.”

That’s interesting, because I’m certain that we all point out missed plays on Jeter’s part far more frequently than that.  Like practically every game. 

“To be honest, until I see something that makes me think differently, I have to assume Jeter’s going to be closer to that 35% forecast, which is around what he did in 2010.”

That may be, but I’m curious as to why the baseline projection doesn’t represent your best estimate of a player’s performance.  Or at least your best estimate not taking into account any subjective considerations.  In Jeter’s case, I would trust the projections as an estimate of what to expect from Derek assuming he continues on the path he’s been on over the last several years.  However, I would probably adjust that estimate UPWARD based on the work he’s doing to shorten his stride.

What I want to know is, what can Long do to ensure Jeter a fluky-high BABIP?

Rilke - that he played FOR FREE for the first 8 years of his career?

[8] That is almost the ultimate test.  However, the real ultimate test is whether or not you can survive death.  So far don’t nobody we know have passed the ultimate test.

[9] That his career high in IP was his rookie season at age 20, 218 IP.

Link for Pin.

“However, the real ultimate test is whether or not you can survive death.”

According to the cover of the tabloid at my local grocery store, Charlie Sheen has done this four times so far this year.

SG,

In the balls in play by fielder table I think you made a mistake in the 2010 column—everything else should be 0%, and shortstop 100%.

Kidding aside, where did you get this data? All season long last year I was dying to be able to proclaim that Jeter led the league by a mile in groundouts to shortstop on the first pitch—don’t know if your data breaks it down by count, but this is the first time I’ve seen a breakout like this of ball in play by fielder.

where did you get this data?

If he told you that, he’d have to kill you…

I was dying to be able to proclaim that Jeter led the league by a mile in groundouts to shortstop on the first pitch

...oh. Never mind.

Regarding the possible range bias - wouldn’t this affect all shortstops equally? Unless the bias is specifically aimed at Jeter, since the stat is comparing all players at a position wouldn’t system wide bias disappear?

[15]  I believe the idea is that if Bad Shortstop A’s range is bad, the observers, seeing him not even try at a ball, will score it a non-fieldable chance instead of taking into account that Average Shortstop B would have gotten to that same ball.

Or will think, Bad Shortstop _couldn’t_ be that bad, etc.

Banuelos starting tonight against the Red Sox.

Fanboy pants explosion in 5, 4, 3, [two fingers], [one finger], [twirl finger].

That should be invisible.  I would have thought he misses a play an average SS makes more like once a week, judging from the local commentariat reaction at least.

It could be confirmation bias, or the fact that he’s not getting dinged as much as he should for plays he’s missing.

Kidding aside, where did you get this data? All season long last year I was dying to be able to proclaim that Jeter led the league by a mile in groundouts to shortstop on the first pitch—don’t know if your data breaks it down by count, but this is the first time I’ve seen a breakout like this of ball in play by fielder.

Retrosheet’s play by play data.

Regarding the possible range bias - wouldn’t this affect all shortstops equally? Unless the bias is specifically aimed at Jeter, since the stat is comparing all players at a position wouldn’t system wide bias disappear?

No.  Where range bias would appear would be on chances deemed as fieldable.  In theory every shortstop should have the same zone, but it may be that Jeter’s lack of range is causing whomever is recording his defensive stats to not necessarily be marking down all the missed plays that a player with greater range would be getting to.

Don’t the recorders have a grid of the field where they mark down the place an average SS would field a particular chance?  I’d naively expect that to quite limit bias.  Hmm, they have to estimate the speed of the ball too, and maybe a little about how it bounces, and the field conditions and grass vs. turf.

Where range bias would appear would be on chances deemed as fieldable.

To add on to that, the idea that I think guys like Mike Fast, Colin Wyers, and others are looking it, has to do with cameras.  That is, the camera focuses on where the ball is, and generally has very narrow view of the field.  Often meaning that there aren’t any reference points.  So two balls hit in exactly the same place up the middle, but the 2nd base bag isn’t in the camera view.  Jeter doesn’t enter the picture in one, so the stringer marks it as unfieldable (close to the 2B bag).  Tulo gets in the picture and the ball just goes under his glove, so it is put in a zone much closer to where the SS ends up.  Jeter gets no or a very small negative, Tulo gets a much larger negative.  Field F/X will (theoretcially) fix this.

Don’t the recorders have a grid of the field where they mark down the place an average SS would field a particular chance?  I’d naively expect that to quite limit bias.

They do, but the field’s not marked, so they’re estimating the zones visually.  The impact isn’t necessarily huge.  Again, we’re talking something like 10 plays out of say 500 over a full season.

Hmm, they have to estimate the speed of the ball too, and maybe a little about how it bounces, and the field conditions and grass vs. turf.

Right, speed of the ball plays into the more advanced metrics.  Not sure about field conditions and bad hops.

That may be, but I’m curious as to why the baseline projection doesn’t represent your best estimate of a player’s performance. 

Because my subjective opinion is not based on algorithms and data.

[23]  Stats not scouting!  Stats not scouting!

Stats not scouting!  Stats not scouting!

OK, I can do that.

Basically, I feel that Jeter’s projection is high because I think the peripherals of his 2009 performance indicate a fair amount of good fortune.  Because 2009 is almost 30% of his 2011 projection, if it was in fact more luck than skill, he’ll project higher than he should.

Kind of like with Cano and Swisher in reverse, where I think their 2008s are suppressing their projections.

How do the various projection systems take calm eyes and will to win into account? Seems like a big miss.

And how subjective is the distinction between “calm eyes” and “no fire”?

[27] You usually adjust for “no fire” based on observing “inappropriate smiling when team is losing” or “slumped shoulders while lazily jogging after a ball you booted” and cross tabbing it with DominicanFx data.

and cross tabbing it with DominicanFx data.

Zing!!!!!!

*honks horn* *drives off in clown car*

The green table is still showing a fly-ball as a more likely base hit than a ground-ball.  I think that’s still backward.

Banuelos starting tonight against the Red Sox.

Live on espNESN for folks like myself who don’t live in the NY area and wait until right before the season to purchase mlb(dot)tv. 7PM EST/4PM PST start. Considering who is starting, I vote a gamechatter complaintchatter is in order.

Did SG or Jon play APBA or Stratometic as kids?

32 against Aceves

[34] This time… it’s personal.

Did SG or Jon play APBA or Stratometic as kids

I did not.  I did play Microleague and Hardball though.