Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Looking Ahead to 2010: Mark Teixeira

With the Yankees focusing on starting pitching early in the 2009 offseason, Mark Teixeira seemed like an afterthought, even though he fit the Yankees’ needs like a glove. We got a Christmas surprise when the Yankees swooped in and inked Teixeira after it looked like the Red Sox were about to sign him on Christmas eve.

Teixeira went out and had a solid season in his pinstriped debut, and although he didn’t hit much in the postseason he made several key defensive plays. No, he probably shouldn’t have finished as high in the MVP voting as he did, but it’s tough to complain about his first season in the Bronx. So what should we expect out of Teixeira heading into 2010?

For more detail about the numbers that will follow, you can check out the first article in this series which has links to the various projections being used.

Offense
A switch-hitter with power and good OBP skills who's still in his prime, Teixeira is expected to be a very good offensive force again this season. Here's how he projects.

Player	Mark Teixeira
Position	1B
Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR	BRAR/650
chone	643	564	92	162	38	2	34	112	71	107	8	1	0	.287	.375	.543	.392	109	38	38
marcel	622	533	89	156	35	2	31	104	76	103	8	3	1	.293	.386	.540	.396	107	37	39
oliver	658	566	93	169	39	1	33	110	77	98	8	0	0	.299	.386	.546	.397	114	40	40
pecota	615	529	90	155	29	2	32	109	78	102	8	2	0	.293	.392	.537	.400	106	38	40
zips	657	574	95	161	38	2	29	112	75	111	8	1	0	.280	.371	.505	.379	104	31	31
cairo	670	574	96	161	39	2	34	113	85	109	8	2	0	.280	.379	.529	.390	112	38	37
average	644	557	93	161	36	2	32	110	77	105	8	2	1	.289	.382	.533	.392	109	37	37
2009	707	609	103	178	48	4	34	122	77	114	12	2	0	.293	.378	.554	.395	123	44	41

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level (position-adjusted)
BRAR/650: BRAR pro-rated to 650 PA

Aside from CAIRO, which is ridiculously biased, that's a pretty consistent set of projections. Teixeira is essentially expected to repeat his 2009, with a bit of regression in rate of performance and playing time. ZiPS seems a little low on power, but other than that I don't see much issue with any of the projections here.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

Cairo %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR	BRAR/650
80%	737	631	117	191	50	3	43	136	104	108	12	3	0	.302	.416	.597	.433	146	63	56
65%	703	602	106	175	44	2	38	125	94	109	10	2	0	.291	.398	.563	.411	128	50	46
Baseline	670	574	96	161	39	2	34	113	85	109	8	2	0	.280	.379	.529	.390	112	38	37
35%	636	545	87	147	34	1	29	103	76	108	7	1	0	.269	.361	.496	.368	97	26	27
20%	603	516	78	133	29	0	25	92	68	107	5	0	0	.258	.342	.462	.346	83	16	17

Teixiera's OBPs in 2007 and 2008 were .400 and .410, so it's not unreasonable to think he can approach that 65% projection, although I'd be perfectly happy with the baseline.

Defense
We know that defensive metrics are imperfect. One of the areas they seem to struggle with is first base defense. Teixeira looks like a very good defender, to both fans and scouts. However, his defensive metrics don't always agree with that. Part of that is the fact that first basemen see the lowest percentage of fieldable chances at any of the non-catcher defensive positions, which means sample size is an issue. Another part of it is that defensive metrics for first base don't incorporate things like ability to scoop throws or ability to chase down foul popups, so they may not give us a complete picture of how good a first baseman is.

With that being said, here's how Teixeira's defense has rated the last four seasons and how it projects for 2010.

Player	Mark Teixeira
Position	1B
Year	Inn	zRS	ARM	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	aRS
2005	1358	11	0	-1	-3	3	-2	5
2006	1399	2	0	-1	-3	2	-2	0
2007	1098	0	0	0	-4	0	-4	-2
2008	1335	13	0	-1	9	2	11	12
2009	1239	8	0	0	-5	2	-4	2
2010	1258	7	0	-1	-1	1	0	4

zRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender according to zone rating
ARM: Runs saved by a player's arm compared to an average defender according to UZR
DPR: Runs saved in terms of turning double plays compared to an average defender according to UZR (for infielders)
RngR: Runs saved by a player's range compared to an average defender according to UZR
ErrR: Runs saved in terms of errors made/not made compared to an average defender according to UZR
UZR: Total runs saved compared to average (sum of ARM, DPR, RngR, and ErrR)
aRS: Average of zRS and UZR

Standard zone rating likes Teixeira's glove more than UZR, which generally means that Teixeira's seen a higher percentage of chances that would be considered easy. Zone rating does not adjust for difficulty of chances, whereas UZR does. Overall, the two systems see him as a slightly above average fielder overall. I think only Albert Pujols projects better at first in 2010.

Baserunning

Name	mark teixeira
Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2006	30	-0.2	2	0.3	49	-1.1	49	-1.0	130	-1.9
2007	17	0.0	0	0.0	38	0.2	28	-1.1	83	-1.0
2008	32	-0.4	2	-0.1	51	0.5	48	-0.6	133	-0.6
2009	27	-0.4	1	0.2	43	-0.8	47	-1.0	118	-1.9
Proj	27	-0.3	1	0.1	45	-0.3	45	-0.9	118	-1.4

GA_OPPS: Ground advancement opportunities
EQGAR: GA_OPPS runs above/below average
AA_OPPS: Air advancement opportunities. Opportunities to advance in sacrifice fly situations.
EQAAR: AA_OPPS runs above/below average
HA_OPPS: Hit advancement opportunities. Stuff like first to third on a single, etc.,
EQHAR: HA_OPPS runs above/below average
OA_OPPS: Other advancement opportunities such as wild pitches, passed balls, etc.,
EQOAR: OA_OPPS runs above/below average
OPPS: GA_OPPS + AA_OPPS + HA_OPPS + OA_OPPS
EQBRR: EQGAR + EQAAR + EQHAR + EQOAR

By these numbers, he's a hair below average but Teix doesn't get paid to run the bases, and being a run below average really doesn't impact his value at all.

Value

Player	Mark Teixeira
Position	1B
Offense	37
Defense	4
Baserunning	-1
RAR	39
WAR	3.9
Value
$3,000,000	$11,810,435
$3,500,000	$13,778,841
$4,000,000	$15,747,247
$4,500,000	$17,715,653
$5,000,000	$19,684,059
$5,500,000	$21,652,464
Salary	$20,625,000

Offense: Average projected BRAR
Defense: Projected runs saved compared to average
Baserunning: Projected runs above/below average in non-SB baserunning
RAR: Runs above replacement (offense + defense + baserunning)
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR divided by 10)
Value: first column is a range of values for marginal wins, second column is the value of the projected WAR at that value

We don't know exactly how much a marginal win is worth to the Yankees, but Teixeira's pay seems like it should be pretty close to his value in 2010.

C.C. Sabathia is probably the most valuable player on the Yankees at this point, although Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Teixeira all have some say in the matter. Signing Teixeira prior to the 2009 season made a ton of sense, not just for 2009, but for the years that will follow, 2010 being one of them.

Comments

---