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Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Looking Ahead to 2010: Mark Teixeira

With the Yankees focusing on starting pitching early in the 2009 offseason, Mark Teixeira seemed like an afterthought, even though he fit the Yankees’ needs like a glove. We got a Christmas surprise when the Yankees swooped in and inked Teixeira after it looked like the Red Sox were about to sign him on Christmas eve.

Teixeira went out and had a solid season in his pinstriped debut, and although he didn’t hit much in the postseason he made several key defensive plays. No, he probably shouldn’t have finished as high in the MVP voting as he did, but it’s tough to complain about his first season in the Bronx. So what should we expect out of Teixeira heading into 2010?

For more detail about the numbers that will follow, you can check out the first article in this series which has links to the various projections being used.

Offense
A switch-hitter with power and good OBP skills who's still in his prime, Teixeira is expected to be a very good offensive force again this season. Here's how he projects.

Player Mark Teixeira
Position 1B
Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR BRAR/650
chone 643 564 92 162 38 2 34 112 71 107 8 1 0 .287 .375 .543 .392 109 38 38
marcel 622 533 89 156 35 2 31 104 76 103 8 3 1 .293 .386 .540 .396 107 37 39
oliver 658 566 93 169 39 1 33 110 77 98 8 0 0 .299 .386 .546 .397 114 40 40
pecota 615 529 90 155 29 2 32 109 78 102 8 2 0 .293 .392 .537 .400 106 38 40
zips 657 574 95 161 38 2 29 112 75 111 8 1 0 .280 .371 .505 .379 104 31 31
cairo 670 574 96 161 39 2 34 113 85 109 8 2 0 .280 .379 .529 .390 112 38 37
average 644 557 93 161 36 2 32 110 77 105 8 2 1 .289 .382 .533 .392 109 37 37
2009 707 609 103 178 48 4 34 122 77 114 12 2 0 .293 .378 .554 .395 123 44 41
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level (position-adjusted)
BRAR/650: BRAR pro-rated to 650 PA

Aside from CAIRO, which is ridiculously biased, that's a pretty consistent set of projections. Teixeira is essentially expected to repeat his 2009, with a bit of regression in rate of performance and playing time. ZiPS seems a little low on power, but other than that I don't see much issue with any of the projections here.

CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
Cairo % PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR BRAR/650
80% 737 631 117 191 50 3 43 136 104 108 12 3 0 .302 .416 .597 .433 146 63 56
65% 703 602 106 175 44 2 38 125 94 109 10 2 0 .291 .398 .563 .411 128 50 46
Baseline 670 574 96 161 39 2 34 113 85 109 8 2 0 .280 .379 .529 .390 112 38 37
35% 636 545 87 147 34 1 29 103 76 108 7 1 0 .269 .361 .496 .368 97 26 27
20% 603 516 78 133 29 0 25 92 68 107 5 0 0 .258 .342 .462 .346 83 16 17


Teixiera's OBPs in 2007 and 2008 were .400 and .410, so it's not unreasonable to think he can approach that 65% projection, although I'd be perfectly happy with the baseline.

Defense
We know that defensive metrics are imperfect. One of the areas they seem to struggle with is first base defense. Teixeira looks like a very good defender, to both fans and scouts. However, his defensive metrics don't always agree with that. Part of that is the fact that first basemen see the lowest percentage of fieldable chances at any of the non-catcher defensive positions, which means sample size is an issue. Another part of it is that defensive metrics for first base don't incorporate things like ability to scoop throws or ability to chase down foul popups, so they may not give us a complete picture of how good a first baseman is.

With that being said, here's how Teixeira's defense has rated the last four seasons and how it projects for 2010.
Player Mark Teixeira
Position 1B
Year Inn zRS ARM DPR RngR ErrR UZR aRS
2005 1358 11 0 -1 -3 3 -2 5
2006 1399 2 0 -1 -3 2 -2 0
2007 1098 0 0 0 -4 0 -4 -2
2008 1335 13 0 -1 9 2 11 12
2009 1239 8 0 0 -5 2 -4 2
2010 1258 7 0 -1 -1 1 0 4


zRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender according to zone rating
ARM: Runs saved by a player's arm compared to an average defender according to UZR
DPR: Runs saved in terms of turning double plays compared to an average defender according to UZR (for infielders)
RngR: Runs saved by a player's range compared to an average defender according to UZR
ErrR: Runs saved in terms of errors made/not made compared to an average defender according to UZR
UZR: Total runs saved compared to average (sum of ARM, DPR, RngR, and ErrR)
aRS: Average of zRS and UZR

Standard zone rating likes Teixeira's glove more than UZR, which generally means that Teixeira's seen a higher percentage of chances that would be considered easy. Zone rating does not adjust for difficulty of chances, whereas UZR does. Overall, the two systems see him as a slightly above average fielder overall. I think only Albert Pujols projects better at first in 2010.

Baserunning
Name mark teixeira
Year GA_OPPS EQGAR AA_OPPS EQAAR HA_OPPS EQHAR OA_OPPS EQOAR OPPS EQBRR
2006 30 -0.2 2 0.3 49 -1.1 49 -1.0 130 -1.9
2007 17 0.0 0 0.0 38 0.2 28 -1.1 83 -1.0
2008 32 -0.4 2 -0.1 51 0.5 48 -0.6 133 -0.6
2009 27 -0.4 1 0.2 43 -0.8 47 -1.0 118 -1.9
Proj 27 -0.3 1 0.1 45 -0.3 45 -0.9 118 -1.4


GA_OPPS: Ground advancement opportunities
EQGAR: GA_OPPS runs above/below average
AA_OPPS: Air advancement opportunities. Opportunities to advance in sacrifice fly situations.
EQAAR: AA_OPPS runs above/below average
HA_OPPS: Hit advancement opportunities. Stuff like first to third on a single, etc.,
EQHAR: HA_OPPS runs above/below average
OA_OPPS: Other advancement opportunities such as wild pitches, passed balls, etc.,
EQOAR: OA_OPPS runs above/below average
OPPS: GA_OPPS + AA_OPPS + HA_OPPS + OA_OPPS
EQBRR: EQGAR + EQAAR + EQHAR + EQOAR

By these numbers, he's a hair below average but Teix doesn't get paid to run the bases, and being a run below average really doesn't impact his value at all.

Value
Player Mark Teixeira
Position 1B
Offense 37
Defense 4
Baserunning -1
RAR 39
WAR 3.9
Value
$3,000,000 $11,810,435
$3,500,000 $13,778,841
$4,000,000 $15,747,247
$4,500,000 $17,715,653
$5,000,000 $19,684,059
$5,500,000 $21,652,464
Salary $20,625,000


Offense: Average projected BRAR
Defense: Projected runs saved compared to average
Baserunning: Projected runs above/below average in non-SB baserunning
RAR: Runs above replacement (offense + defense + baserunning)
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR divided by 10)
Value: first column is a range of values for marginal wins, second column is the value of the projected WAR at that value

We don't know exactly how much a marginal win is worth to the Yankees, but Teixeira's pay seems like it should be pretty close to his value in 2010.

C.C. Sabathia is probably the most valuable player on the Yankees at this point, although Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Teixeira all have some say in the matter. Signing Teixeira prior to the 2009 season made a ton of sense, not just for 2009, but for the years that will follow, 2010 being one of them.
--Posted at 11:54 am by SG / 19 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

I think the 65 percent offensive forecast is achievable. In that case, he is almost a 5-win player.

[1] Just take the 80% forecast.  That’s the one SG publishes to the world (for Yankees) and claims is the baseline anyway.

[2] You make it sound like that’s a bad thing.

[1] Especially, if Teix is able to a have a productive April.

SG, I know PECOTA was more letal that Chuck Norris in the past, so you are willing to give them some rope, but their projections now look completely lost. They are projecting, in their depth charts, that the combined MLB teams will have a .512 winning percentage against themselves, going something like 45 games over .500 .

They were always a blackbox as how they perform the projections, so we had to trust them beacuse of their results, but I don´t see anything that warrants confidence at this point.

If [4] is true, I really don’t know whether to laugh or pity them. That’s crazy.

Joba totally in the lead for 5th stater role! Until Aceves pitches later this week! But seriously, Jennings said he looked very good today.

[6] From LoHud:

“Outstanding,” Joe Girardi said. “Worked quickly. Attacked the zone. He’s got to go out and throw more, and that’s what you want to see. Quality.”

Today’s performances change everything: both Chamberlain and Hughes will start, Pettitte pitches teh seventh and Marte will be DFA’d.

But who will pitch the eighth?

So, Chamberlain had a good outing today, result-wise. Is there anyone who has any info on his fastball velocity?

I’m about 12 hours later to the party, but HOORAY OLD COMMENTS!!

So, nerdfest?

I was so excited I couldn’t type “late.”  See what the new old RYLW does to me?

Who cares about the regular season?  Teix is a proven post season failure who we should be looking to dump him as soon as possible.  Didn’t we learn our lesson after signing that bum A-Rod?

OMG we’re back!!! Life is good again!

I don’t have the exact numbers, but I would guess that fielding ground balls is less than 15% of 1st baseman’s plays, when you consider catching throws to 1st, catching popups, tagging runners on pickoffs, etc., so the fielding metric at best has very limited value.  Beyond that, my eye tells me that Teix is better than average at fielding ground balls, so I don’t understand the model’s output.

Since every thread is a complaint thread: is there an RSS feed for this site yet?

Since every thread is a complaint thread: is there an RSS feed for this site yet?

Yep.

http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/rss_2.0/

If you prefer ATOM.

http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/atom/

Thanks. I couldn’t find it on this site, and I vaguely remember having a hard time finding it on the last site. (but it turns out that I’m blind, since there are two big buttons on the left side of the homepage.)

[11] We’d better be festing, because I took 4 days vacation and bought my plane ticket already !

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