Thursday, August 19, 2010
Javier Vazquez’s Fastball Velocity
As requested by Mike K.
| date | # | game_velocity | rolling_avg |
| 4/9/2010 | 37 | 89.6 | 89.6 |
| 4/14/2010 | 28 | 88.8 | 89.3 |
| 4/20/2010 | 46 | 88.9 | 89.1 |
| 4/25/2010 | 20 | 89.2 | 89.1 |
| 5/12/2010 | 45 | 89.1 | 89.1 |
| 5/17/2010 | 1 | 90.7 | 89.1 |
| 5/21/2010 | 30 | 88.4 | 89.0 |
| 5/27/2010 | 62 | 89.4 | 89.1 |
| 6/6/2010 | 32 | 89.5 | 89.1 |
| 6/12/2010 | 24 | 87.7 | 89.0 |
| 6/18/2010 | 50 | 90.0 | 89.2 |
| 6/23/2010 | 46 | 89.1 | 89.2 |
| 7/10/2010 | 42 | 89.6 | 89.2 |
| 7/21/2010 | 24 | 87.9 | 89.1 |
| 7/26/2010 | 38 | 89.2 | 89.1 |
| 8/6/2010 | 23 | 87.3 | 89.1 |
| 8/11/2010 | 20 | 88.0 | 89.0 |
| 8/16/2010 | 40 | 88.5 | 89.0 |
# is the number of pitches classified as fastballs in that specific game, game_velocity is the average velocity for the specific game, and rolling average is the cumulative average fastball velocity.
If he’s having “dead arm”, it’s not really reflected in his average velocity, although the dip after the All Star Break is curious. I suppose dead arm can also mean command issues, but I’m not buying that he’s fine and just needs to get over a dead arm. He’s either hurt, or he’s no longer got it.
Comments
He’s either hurt, or he’s no longer got it.
I thought we already decided he can’t pitch in pinstripes?
I thought we already decided he can’t pitch in pinstripes?
I thought that was true, but his ERA is actually higher on the road this year, although he’s pitched better away.
So it’s not the pinstripes, but it could be a Yankee uniform issue.
To elaborate:
At home, batters are hitting .264/.336/.528 against him, and he has an ERA of 4.86.
On the road, batters are hitting .238/.313/.429 against him and he has an ERA of 4.91.
Just a really odd season. His BABIP is lower than it’s ever been in any full season, at least it was when I last checked. So he’s actually probably been lucky to only be this bad, and should by all rights be WORSE.
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske?
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske?
The Yankees excised the curse of Clay Bellinger in 2009, but they have not won a World Series since dumping Hairston and Hinske.
So it’s not the pinstripes, but it could be a Yankee uniform issue.
This also seems to be the case with every SP they have acquired since 2000 outside of CC. (BattleCat not included due to coming up through the system and achieving True Yankee™ status pre-2000)
Pitchers can suck for extended periods of time, so I’m not ready to DFA him, but hopefully the coaching staff has noticed.
[7] Too bad Kevin Long can’t work with pitchers.
SG (or Jonathan), how does this compare with someone like Mike Mussina? I think Mussina was a far more versatile pitcher, so he could adjust to his velocity drop by mixing up his pitches better. Any chance that Javy will ever be able to do that? He does throw 3 different types of change-up, so at least the potential is there for him to become a good junkballer, but is his success predicated on having a good fastball?
This also seems to be the case with every SP they have acquired since 2000 outside of CC.
Jon Lieber was a very fine Yankee during his brief stay.
[10] Then he gave up that HR to Mark Bellhorn…
SG (or Jonathan), how does this compare with someone like Mike Mussina? I think Mussina was a far more versatile pitcher, so he could adjust to his velocity drop by mixing up his pitches better. Any chance that Javy will ever be able to do that? He does throw 3 different types of change-up, so at least the potential is there for him to become a good junkballer, but is his success predicated on having a good fastball?
We don’t have pitch data for Mussina prior to 2002, but by that point his fastball was down to 89.2 mph on average with a steady decline until his retirement, so it’s probably good for comparison.
These are the pitches Moose threw at least 1% of the time from 2002-2008.
Fastball: 51.2%
Slider: 11.4%
Curve: 25.6%
Changeup: 8.1%
Splitfinger: 3.4%
Contrast that with Vazquez’s pitch selection from 2002 - this year.
Fastball: 55.1%
Slider: 13.0%
Curve: 14.9%
Changeup: 16.3%
In 2009 he actually threw fewer than 50% fastballs, this year he’s back up around 53.5% and he’s throwing fewer sliders than he did, but he still has four pitches he feels comfortable enough with to throw them at least 10% of the time.
So he has enough pitches to keep hitters off balance, but the thing that concerns me here is the higher reliance on the changeup. When a pitcher loses arm strength, the gap between their fastball and changeup gets smaller, which makes it easier to time them.
In Moose’s case, since his curve was a very effective pitch, he was able to maintain enough of a speed gap to keep hitters off balance, although it looks like it took him time adjust to his reduced fastball after a rough 2007. In Vazquez’s case, it sounds like he hasn’t come to terms with the fact that his velocity is gone (maybe it isn’t, who knows?). He talked about being frustrated about his fastball velocity after his last start, so I’d guess he hasn’t made any major adjustments to account for that yet.
I have no idea if he can or will, but I wouldn’t bet on it happening this year.
Thank you! Yeah, a slight uptick middle of year, but I doubt that’s much more than random variance. Possible just that every time he hit 92 after that bullpen session we noticed it, esp as it coincided with a decent string of starts.
I’m definitely not ready to give up on him, but I’m basically resigned to having him in the bullpen come post-season.
This also seems to be the case with every SP they have acquired since 2000 outside of CC.
IDK, has Burnett been much worse than projected? K’s are down, but overall, we never expected him to live up to his salary…
IDK, has Burnett been much worse than projected?
SG had this to say recently: “I will project Burnett rest of the season. He’ll have an RA between 0 and 1,000,000,000 and will average somewhere between 0 inning and 9 innings per start.” So ... I think he’s matching it.
Next entry: Tigers (58-62) @ Yankees (74-46), Thursday, August 19, 2010, 1:05pm **Complaint Thread**
Previous entry: Yankees.com: WOE Takes Another Night Off
