Monday, July 23, 2012
Jack Curry’s Twitter: Yankees Acquire Ichiro Suzuki
The Yankees have acquired Ichiro Suzuki for RHPs DJ Mitchell and Danny Fahrquar, a source said. Yanks also get undisclosed cash in deal.
Projections to follow once I change the underlying assumptions to make Ichiro look better.
OK, that’s done.
Here is how CAIRO had Ichiro! projected entering the season.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 676 | 629 | 87 | 200 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 52 | 34 | 4 | 41 | 72 | 4 | 4 | .319 | .363 | .424 | .349 | 94 | 16 |
| 65% | 657 | 611 | 80 | 188 | 25 | 5 | 7 | 47 | 31 | 5 | 37 | 74 | 5 | 3 | .307 | .347 | .400 | .331 | 82 | 6 |
| Baseline | 644 | 599 | 74 | 178 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 33 | 77 | 6 | 2 | .296 | .331 | .375 | .313 | 72 | -2 |
| 35% | 580 | 539 | 63 | 154 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 22 | 7 | 27 | 73 | 7 | 1 | .285 | .315 | .351 | .296 | 57 | -10 |
| 20% | 515 | 479 | 52 | 131 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 22 | 69 | 7 | 1 | .274 | .299 | .326 | .278 | 43 | -16 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
So far he’s hit .261/.288/.353 in 423 PA, which a hair better than his 20% forecast in terms of wOBA. His baseline projection as a Yankee would have been ..310/.351/.397.
We don’t really care about what he’s done this year aside from how it may inform his projection going forward. CAIRO says something like .295/.332/.384 over the rest of the year. ZiPS is harsher at .273/.309/.348 but that’s in Seattle which probably shrinks the gap a fair amount. Suzuki actually has been a bit better vs. LHP than RHP in his career, but that’s not been the case this year ( .236/.242/.267 vs. LHP and .278/.318/.411 vs. RHP).
He’s a better defensive OF than Raul Ibanez (then again, I may be) and probably Andruw Jones, and he can still run pretty well. The Yankees are probably hoping moving into a pennant race revives him a bit, and they didn’t give up anything significant in taking the gamble.
Seems like a meh move, but I suppose it’s something.
Comments
Another lose-lose deal for Cash and Jack Z?
I hope we gave Ichiro a thorough physical.
son of a bitch!
dead cat bounce, please?
He and the Shockmaster will form a formidable OBP sinkhole
Ichiro will look strange without his beard.
Yikes, I had no idea he’s 38.
I wonder if gets uniform #51?
Ichiro!
Aside from being able to yell that on the few ocassions he does something good, I am decidedly meh about this trade.
I’m kind of disappointed. I mean, I guess it’ll be cool to see Ichiro even if he sucks now. And I know DJ Mitchell wasn’t going to become some special, life long Yankee. But for some reason I’ve had a man crush on him since he was drafted out of Clemson. I mean, I’m his FB friend!
Also:
1)Is the Swisher injury worse than imagined or will Ichiro patrol the spacious NYS left field?
2)I’m praying Upton isn’t traded so he is available for trade at season’s end.
3)Maybe Ichiro will actually stop his softball swing and go for the porch. Two summers ago he hitting the ball further than Branyan in BP at the Stadium. I know. *BP*.
Per Sherman: “I have learned that the #Yankees will pay just more than $2M of what is left on Ichiro’s salary”
3)Maybe Ichiro will actually stop his softball swing and go for the porch. Two summers ago he hitting the ball further than Branyan in BP at the Stadium. I know. *BP*.
Bold prediction, Ichiro goes Glenallen Hill and then is re-signed to a contract that will allow him to break Barry Bonds’s HR record in pinstripes, with bonuses for every milestone HR.
1)Is the Swisher injury worse than imagined or will Ichiro patrol the spacious NYS left field?
This lets them play it safer but I’m guessing this was the best they could do for the price they were willing to pay and is not directly due to the Swisher injury.
I hate the fact that Cashman still deals with the Mariners though. I’m convinced they knew Pineda was damaged goods.
How long before we find out Ichiro needs shoulder surgery?
Hey, it’s better than talking about getting swept in Oakland.
Poor Wisee?
The Yankees trade for a future Hall of Famer and it isn’t remotely the biggest deal pulled off by a New York team today.
WOOHOO!!
Great news for the Mariners, who have rid themselves of an offseason of utter horror where the community is torn asunder over whether or not to give a thoroughly destructive extension to their iconic player. Seriously, this was gonna suck. Now I can tell my kids he got traded, which is a lot simpler than trying to explain how he wants $10 million but he’s only worth the major league minimum. Seriously, I barely understand WAR and am hoping desperately to buy another two years or so, when my oldest is 10, before I have to explain it to him.
[16] What was?
[18]Rangers got Rick Nash
I love it. Classic NY headline trade. They have an obvious need, and better outfielders are apparently out of reach. What’s the risk? Some of you folks are being way too rational about this. We got Ichiro!.
I’m going to miss Wisey.
Ichiro is what they call an “expiring contract” in the NBA?
This is a Dolan-worthy move, it’s true.
Does Girardi go with Ichiroey or Suzukiey? I may have to start watching the Joe Girardi Show from now on.

This is easily worth two million dollars in batting practice souvenirs!
Mariners are becoming the Pacific Northwest Yankees.
I guess that’s because the Three Rivers Yankees are actually winning now and no longer looking to get C/D level prospects and players.
Ichiro to bat ninth. Chris Stewart sadly getting pushed out of his spot.
Well, maybe in DNYS we can finally see that prodigious power that made Mariners fans claim Ichiro could hit 40 HRs if he wanted to, but chose to hit groundball singles instead.
Also, I know it’s SSS, but there’s a 47 point differential between his wRC+ home/away and Safeco, IIRC, is suppressing offense like never before since it was built.
wRC+ is still below average on the road. But his OBP/SLG goes from like .250/.280 to about .315/.400. And his defense plays everywhere.
[28] It’s very classy of the Mariners to allow Ichiro to fulfill his dream of playing home games in a disgraceful bandbox.
No, this is an anti-Dolan move. It addresses an immediate need without compromising the future. It also dresses up the trade as the Yanks getting a big name for the stretch run. Cashman read the situation and basically did no harm to the Yankees immediate and long term future while giving his customers a marquee player to obsess over. I’d be massively disappointed if he had given up the farm for a Justin Upton or Shane Vittorino. Both of whom may have required a financial commitment well beyond the next 2-3 months.
Jack Z probably only made this trade because he knows Bane implanted a nuclear bomb in Ichiro. So goodbye, DNYS.
[32] Yeah, but in five months it’s going to be December. At worst it’ll take out a college bowl game, if they’re doing another one there this year.
Wow, watching the press conference right now does Ichiro really not speaks english at this point? After eleven years in Seatle?
It took less than a year for Tom Selleck to learn Japanese.
I wonder if any part of this move was calculated to keep the Yanks’ brand presence well-buffed in Japan. If team popularity over there had fallen off after Matsui left, maybe?
[35] Kuroda?
[36] Valid point, but I was under the impression Kuroda was never a superstar over there like Matsui or Ichiro.
With Ichiro’s arm isn’t RF a natural fit?
FWIW (50 AB)...from 2009-2011 at DNYS, Ichiro hit .380/.400/.560 there. And his rate of 25 AB per HR at DNYS during that time period is much better than his rate at all other stadiums (97 AB per HR).
We’ll just ignore that he hit .154/.154/.231 there this year in 13 AB.
Including Japan, Ichiro now has 3811 hits.
At current rates how long will it take for him to get 456 more?
How do you say “Hit King” in Japanese?
Wow, watching the press conference right now does Ichiro really not speaks english at this point? After eleven years in Seatle?
Pretty sure he speaks English well enough, but would rather deal with the press through an interpreter to ensure he doesn’t mis-speak.
With Ichiro’s arm isn’t RF a natural fit?
I think you’d rather have the guy who covers more ground in LF given the configuration of the park.
[41] Maybe he wanted to avoid a repeat of his comments about Cleveland.
40: kato base no daimyo? Hitto kingu?
Gak.
Arod is done
Wait I go on vacation and this is what happens? Good lord on toast!
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