Nunez effect?

Ask the Captain how he feels about regression this year.

[2] Careful.

Does this sustained quality performance even count? I read somewhere this was the part of the schedule that didn’t count.

The last two games don’t count, they were exhibition games.  The key thing here is that his xFIP has been pretty stable since the end of May, and his other stats have fallen closer into line with it.

FWIW, Nova’s xFIP ranks 18th among 50 qualified starters in the AL so far this year, which would put him near the top of the #2 starters if you break starters down into groups of 14.  CC’s fourth, also FWIW.

Most exciting thing for me with this recent run from Nova and Hughes is that when I’m spacing out in a meeting and jotting down the 2013 Yankees 25 man roster, “Sabathia, Hughes, Nova” seems to be a good start for the rotation.

My perception of Nova’s current ability is something like an average of his FIP and his xFIP, i.e. a 4.00 ERA guy, with potential to improve if he develops better command and more consistency.

SG, how far ahead are the Yankees of their of Log5 expectation?

Nova would be great if he can pitch in big parks against lineups without a DH. Too bad he has to spend about half a season pitching in Yankee stadium against AL lineups. Maybe we should trade him to an NL team that has a guy who can DH for us, since our future DH was traded to Seattle.

SG, how far ahead are the Yankees of their of Log5 expectation?

I think about 1.5-2 games, but I can tell you more precisely when I find my spreadsheet.

The thing is, xFIP normalizes HR/FB rate, but guys who pitch in Yankee Stadium (and the AL East) should be expected to have higher HR/FB rates.  So we should expect Yankee pitchers to have considerably low xFIPs as compared to their FIPs and their ERAs, which don’t normalize HR/FB rate.  In other words, xFIP might tell us that Nova’s true ability is something like a 3.75 ERA pitcher, but because of the home park he pitches in, he will always have an inflated ERA and FIP.  Is this correct?

The thing is, xFIP normalizes HR/FB rate, but guys who pitch in Yankee Stadium (and the AL East) should be expected to have higher HR/FB rates.  So we should expect Yankee pitchers to have considerably low xFIPs as compared to their FIPs and their ERAs, which don’t normalize HR/FB rate.  In other words, xFIP might tell us that Nova’s true ability is something like a 3.75 ERA pitcher, but because of the home park he pitches in, he will always have an inflated ERA and FIP.  Is this correct?

Is this correct?

Basically, although you should adjust ERA for park anyway so you should expect that a 4.00 ERA in DNYS is about the same as maybe a 3.75 ERA in a more neutral park.

SG, how far ahead are the Yankees of their of Log5 expectation?

Yankees should have 37.6 wins and have 40, so they’re 2.4 wins ahead of pace and should project to win around 96-7 games instead of the 94.4 they projected to win at the start of the year according to their average projection.