The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Is Jorge Posada the Worst Base Runner ever?

Baseball Prospectus has base running data going back to 1954.  They basically just look at the opportunites for a player to advance on the bases on all the events where it’s possible and compare it to average.  So they look at opportunites to advance on ground and fly ball outs, stolen bases, hits and any others (WP, PB, etc.,). 

Using their data, here are the 50 worst baserunners over their careers for seasons from 1954 through 2010.

Name: Run value
Frank Thomas: -69.8
Jim Thome: -52.8
Mike Piazza: -51.2
Ted Simmons: -51.0
Jorge Posada: -50.9
Todd Zeile: -50.2
Edgar Martinez: -49.5
Harmon Killebrew: -48.5
Tony Pena: -48.3
Wade Boggs: -47.3
Lance Parrish: -46.1
Eddie Murray: -45.6
Fred McGriff: -45.2
Harold Baines: -44.9
Carlos Delgado: -43.3
Bob Boone: -43.3
Greg Luzinski: -42.7
Willie McCovey: -41.9
Rusty Staub: -41.8
Rick Cerone: -41.7
Alvin Davis: -41.0
Bengie Molina: -40.2
Manny Ramirez: -40.2
Tim Wallach: -39.2
Chili Davis: -39.1
Boog Powell: -39.0
Dave Magadan: -38.5
Benito Santiago: -38.2
Paul Konerko: -38.2
Hal McRae: -37.7
Gary Carter: -37.3
Dave Parker: -37.3
Reggie Jackson: -37.2
Tino Martinez: -37.2
Ron Cey: -37.1
Mo Vaughn: -36.9
Jason Thompson: -36.9
Eric Karros: -36.8
Alan Ashby: -36.1
Chris Chambliss: -35.6
Cecil Fielder: -35.5
J.T. Snow: -35.4
Ed Bailey: -35.4
Ken Reitz: -35.4
Tom Brunansky: -35.4
Javy Lopez: -35.3
Vinny Castilla: -35.2
Mark McGwire: -35.2
John Olerud: -34.9
Robin Ventura: -34.8

I guess he’s not the worst, but he’s inner circle at least.  He’s almost certainly passed Piazza and Simmons with yesterday’s performance.  He probably won’t be able to catch Thomas, but it’ll be “fun” to see the chase between Posada and Thome for second place.

--Posted at 3:50 pm by SG / 108 Comments | - (0)


Page 1 of 2 pages:  1 2 >

“to see the chase between Posada and Thome”

Some events occur too quickly for the eye to catch.  Some occur too slowly for the brain to observe…

I just logged in because I was confused by rilkefan’s confident assertion on the previous thread that a commenter’s employer likely had an “ergonomic advisor” on call. I feel confident that only a small subset of the American working population would report ready access to an ergonomic advisor. I work a job with benefits that are generous (by American standards) and there has never been any hint that I might avail myself of the advices of an ergonomic advisor.

I am eager for clarification.

Surprised Pete Incaviglia isn’t here, I thought he was legendarily bad.

[bone chilling laugh]

Also, I was not here last night. But the reason Posada got caught was that Penny was so damn slow to the plate. I mean, as decisions go, even considering Posada’s legendary slowness and general ineptitude, this wasn’t terrible. Penny was paying absolutely no attention (Avila practically had to hop on a megaphone to alert him), and it was Andruw Jones vs. RHP w/ 2 outs. What was the realistic run expectancy in that scenario?

Surprised Pete Incaviglia isn’t here, I thought he was legendarily bad.

Incaviglia’s only at -7.7 career.  He didn’t have the career length to get higher up on the list.

[2]  rilkefan works in academia.  I work in the Underground.  The metaphorical one.

[bone chilling laugh]

[2] “I feel confident that only a small subset of the American working population would report ready access to an ergonomic advisor.”

Maybe I’m very naive, and I can see small business as an exception, but for anyone doing a lot of typing RSI is an eternal hazard, and I’d think that companies would be happy to make the small investment to improve productivity, reduce sick time, and ward off lawsuits and workman’s comp hassles or just comply with labor agreements.

But as [6] notes I’m writing from my ivory, duct-work-riddled, Left Coast tower.

[6] You’re a chud?

I’d think that companies would be happy to make the small investment

You might.  But if you did, you’d certainly be surprised by the acuteness of their myopia.

[7] Ah, DeVry Technical Institute!

I guess, to be fair, I don’t work in the private sector.

[7] In the reality TV business, you’d be wrong on all counts.  Productivity means you work until you are done, and if there is work undone you stay late or work unpaid weekends.  Sick days mean work at home or don’t get paid.  There are no unions.  There was a lawsuit about some of this, which won (of course, since a lot of this is illegal) but it was part of a complicated and fruitless strategy to unionize reality TV; and no one has had the fortitude to pursue another.

[bone chilling laugh]

Reggie Jackson?

I don’t remember him being a terrible base runner.  I didn’t check, but I would be surprised if there is anyone else on the list with over 100 stolen bases.

Reginald Martinez Jackson had the good sense to stick out his hip when it mattered.

“Productivity means you work until you are done, and if there is work undone you stay late or work unpaid weekends.”

That at least is the same here.  And as far as I know no one has tried to unionize us, though presumably that’s because of the competition from industry if employment conditions aren’t excellent.  Sounds to me like you need a union.

[14] First the industry needs to decide on what the hell a producer does. /terrible film/tv industry joke

[bone chilling laugh]

[16] I’m not sure if that’s good or bad. But I’ll be here all season either way.

[bone chilling laugh]

[16, 18]  Uh oh.

Frank Thomas in a class by himself.  Who are the top 10?

I’m getting ads for “” I know I’ve been single for almost a year, but damn Google, give me a break!

[21] So, uhh, what are youuuu doing later?!

[bone chilling laugh]

[bone chilling laugh]

I just heard Tavis Smiley on the radio; he’s written a book about failure.  He allowed as how “every strike is a step on the way to a home run.”

If he really knew anything about success, failure, or baseball, he would know that a home run IS failure.

[bone chilling laugh]

I take it you are not one of Smiley’s people?

I’m just pleased that Bautista will at least be back for the Red Sox next week. It would piss me off greatly if he missed Tampa Bay AND the Sox.

In Soviet Union, Tavis Smiley listens to you.

Derek Jeter hits are precious these days.  We cannot afford to waste them.

Is today the day that Derek Smalls…er, Derek Jeter…breaks out?

He lined the ball all the way to second base.

Also, [bone chilling laugh]

I miss healthy A-Rod. The guy has ONE health setback and suddenly he can’t buy a hit.

[33] While I understand your point, I am not sure his slump and his injury happened at the same time.  I think he’s just cold right now.  He was hot starting in March, so it’s understandable.

[bone chilling laugh]


[bone chilling laugh]

Wow, Freddy, I’m impressed.

[bone chilling laugh]

Freddy v. Miguel Cabrera…[bone chilling laugh] indeed.

I think the injury is an okay demarcation point, but yeah, I’ll admit that he had one good game after his return, but all in all…

40 at-bats before the injury: 15 hits, 4 homers, 5 doubles, 9 walks, 4 strikeouts

44 at-bats after the injury: 7 hits, 1 homer, 2 doubles, 5 walks, 12 strikeouts

[38] Did he hit the HR in the first 5 games after?  I honestly think it’s just a slump, but like I said, I can’t discount your idea.  It would make sense and if that’s the case, I think he should get a few games off.  It’s not like Chavez is a terrible alternative.

[bone chilling laugh]

Apparently this “Scherzer” fellow has a future in this league. 

[bone chilling laugh]

Sorry, I edited in the fact that he had that one good game while you were replying.

[41] No problem.  The biggest issue with the theory is he’s been playing excellent defense, so if he is feeling the effects, he certainly isn’t showing it with the glove.

[bone chilling laugh]

A little GIDP wouldn’t go amiss here.

Does that qualify as battlin?

If Freddy can continue to pitch to a 4.5 ERA I will be happy and he should win a bunch of games.

[45] What’s going to make you happy is Mature Singles.

[bone chilling laugh]

Got a tip all the “wise guys” are betting against the Halos.

[46] the slightly husky t-shirt model with a photoshopped head is back now.

Does Scherzer have good stuff or does he just intimidate and weird people out with his different colored eyes?

I think it’s a combination.

I got “Asian Female for Love.”


I thought young unproven starters had to throw under 93 until they became veterans.

Gonna be one of those ridiculous games.

How is Albert “Degenerative Hip Disease” Belle not at the top of this list?

Calling ESPN:Flaherty and Lorenz would be nice additions to your staff.  They could cover World’s Strongest Man” perhaps.

Ordoñez? Are you fucking kidding me?

Commence pumpkin-turning.

Runs, please.

Oh God.  A spider.  Sitting on Freddy Garcia’s head.

[bone chilling laugh]

What the fuck was that? Can’t they at least pretend they have the slightest ability to hit tonight?


Does it really make sense, SG, for this list to be a cumulative career thing?  I’d think that, once you have a certain number of opportunities, the measure would be success per opportunity, no?  A rate thing, not a cumulation thing.

We’ve had a bunch of punchless games lately against a bunch of aceless pitchers Penny, Floyd,  Humbert Humbert to name a few.

[59] Nice, Svid. This is one of those things that’s getting funnier with repetition.

[63] And Scherzer is actually pretty good.


It might be time for a reliever

So I think it’s safe to say that if the Yanks want to try to win this one, they should probably get the long man up.

Sterling: “Avila must take baserunning lessons from the Yanks.”

Probably the funniest thing I have ever heard him say.

[69] Every once in a while Sterling blunders into something that’s not completely useless.

[69] But did you laugh?  Bone chillingly?

double post

In Soviet Union, laughchilling bone.

[bone chilling fart]

[head sculpting dump]

In Soviet Union, norm reverts to Freddy Garcia.

I am watching the center of balance shift from not preventing runs to not scoring them.
Also, [bone chilling cricket chirping]

[78] It’s hard to post when I’m so thoroughly chilled to the bone.

I feel like the Yanks are lucky to only be down 4-0 right now.

In Soviet Union, Yankees think YOU are lucky… oh, forget it.

WOE is me, that I sojourn in Mesech, that I dwell in the tents of Kedar!

If TSBG is caught stealing down 4-0, I’m going to burn down the internet

Thank God, only one out from the Captain.

[bone chilling laugh]

Hughes out 6-8 weeks with shoulder inflammation.

[sad, bone chilling laugh]

Shoulder inflammation means they don’t know what’s wrong, only that they know what’s not wrong?

Is this what Jeter meant by driving the ball more?

It is always a bone chilling experience when you have to see Buddy Carlisle in a game.

Then again, maybe not. It s an indication of white flag being waved.

Yankees didn’t get on bases today to ruin them. That is more like it.

The Replacement Level Yankee Support Group is doing a poor job tonight.

It’s hard to keep the snark and pessimism up when your bones are so chilled.

This guy’s name is fake right?

Does it really make sense, SG, for this list to be a cumulative career thing?  I’d think that, once you have a certain number of opportunities, the measure would be success per opportunity, no?  A rate thing, not a cumulation thing.

It depends if you prefer rate performance to accrued value I suppose.  I guess the title should have been “Is Jorge Posada the least valuable base runner ever?”

Next post, are the May 4, 2011 Yankees the worst offense ever?

I don’t quite think they edge out the April 25, 2011 Yankees, SG. It’s quite a matchup though.

Rodriguez is hurting this team more than Jeter right now, isn’t he?

At least the Angels aren’t losing to the Red Sox tonight.

[95] You could even say that he’s . . . killing the offense.

[bone chilling laughter]

Bernie worst FAST baserunner ever?

Inspiring effort tonight.

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