The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, November 5, 2012

Fox Sports: Recession? Not in Scott Boras’ world

“If the Yankees didn’t sign Soriano, they wouldn’t have won the AL East,” Boras said flatly. “This is the value of depth. If the Yankees signed Soriano (after the 2010 season) when Rivera was 40 and healthy, why wouldn’t you sign Soriano when Rivera is 42 and coming off knee surgery?

“The issue for the Yankees is winning. The reason they signed Soriano two years ago is that they are about winning and depth. It proved true. When Mariano Rivera went down, Soriano became one of the top two or three closers in the game.

“When you know Mariano Rivera will be there for only one more year — at his age, coming off an injury — you can’t expect him to be what he was two years ago. There is a need there. You want to secure a great talent for future years. Soriano has proven he can be effective in New York. The team knows more about him. His value has gone higher.”

I get the sense Soriano’s in for a rude awakening on the offers he’s going to get.  Then again, his value won’t be any higher than it is right now.  My guess is he won’t get anything more than 3 yrs/$30M from someone.  Obviously that’s an extra $17M he wouldn’t have had if he didn’t opt out, but at a much lower rate per season than he has gotten accustomed to.

I would be shocked if the Yankees even consider bringing back Soriano at this point, although with Randy Levine around who knows?  I’m just hoping Soriano doesn’t accept the qualifying offer.  While having him back for one year isn’t a bad thing, I’d rather have the draft pick and the $13.3M to spend on Russell Martin’s five year, $50M extension.

--Posted at 8:02 am by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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He’ll probably go to Detroit.

I was thinking Angels, but Detroit works too.

Detroit.  Valverde’s out of favor.  They’ll love Soriano’s sunny personality. 

Seriously, however, did Soriano’s peripherals last year at all suggest an oncoming decline?  He often didn’t look that great to my naked eye last year, like his fastball wasn’t as fast and slider not as sharp.  I wouldn’t want to give him a multi-year deal.

[3] Soriano was pretty awesome by all measures this year.

I tend to agree with you Mr. Hall.  His stuff doesn’t really look all that great to me, fastball in the low 90s most of the time and his slider is hit and miss.

FWIW, CAIRO doesn’t really like Soriano much for 2013.  54 IP, 47 H, 6 HR, 19 BB, 50 K, 3.48 ERA, 3.75 FIP.  That ain’t worth eight figures a year.

CAIRO prefers Mike Adams and Koji Uehara to name two guys who would be cheaper.

[5] The issue with CAIRO is it doesn’t know why Soriano’s 2011 was down, or if those reasons will happen in the future.  Obviously (right?), Soriano’s elbow issues were part of the reason he had trouble early in the year, and his IP total was low.  From a CAIRO standpoint, that affects his 2013 projection.  I think I’d bet Soriano would do better than that…if healthy.  And if not healthy, he’ll do much (much) worse.  I think his contract is based 100% on if you think he’ll be healthy for the next n number of years, not if you think he’ll pitch well.  All that said…8 figures ($10M) for one year I think he’s probably worth.  For multiple seasons, no.  He’s probably worth something close to 2 wins, and $10M is roughly the going rate.  But given his past health issues, I wouldn’t want to extend the risk beyone one year.

[5] The issue with CAIRO is it doesn’t know why Soriano’s 2011 was down, or if those reasons will happen in the future.

That’s part of it, but it also doesn’t think he really pitched at a 2.26 ERA level in 2012.  His FIP was 3.32, his xFIP was 3.75 and his component ERA was 3.13.  I do think he has demonstrated the ability to suppress BABIP in his career so FIP/xFIP may be underrating him but the component ERA indicates some good luck with sequencing and I don’t think I’d bet on that being repeatable.

He’s a good reliever.  He’s not an elite one in my mind, 2012 results aside.  I can name about a dozen closers I’d take over him.

He’s a good reliever.  He’s not an elite one in my mind, 2012 results aside.  I can name about a dozen closers I’d take over him.

Agreed he isn’t an elite closer but I still think he has enough value to not regret opting out.

[7] I think it’s fairly well accepted now that a) relievers suppress BABIP compared to starters and b) high K pitchers are more likely to suppress BABIP.  That said, no he isn’t 2.26 ERA good.  But his 2012 FIP was almost identical to his career FIP, and for his career he has a 2.78 ERA.  Elite?  No, probably not.  Worth 10M for 1 year?  To some teams I think so.  Maybe that’s a little high.  I agree with [8].  He’s going to get enough to not regret opting out.  Especially when he blows out his elbow in May.

That said, no he isn’t 2.26 ERA good.  But his 2012 FIP was almost identical to his career FIP, and for his career he has a 2.78 ERA. 

His career component ERA is effectively the same as his actual ERA (2.77 vs. 2.78).  So even if you give him full credit for suppressing BABIP like component ERA does, he still was fortunate to end up with the final line he had in 2012.

As long as he gets 2+ years he most definitely won’t be regretting opting out, especially if he would have been back to being a 7th inning guy in 2013.  But I would be shocked if he gets more than 3 years/$30M.

he still was fortunate to end up with the final line he had in 2012

Right, he had a career best 88% strand rate.  So he was probably about a half-run per game “luckier” than he should have been.  But if we just say we’ll give full credit for ERA, just for fun looking at all relievers w/ at least 300IP since 2005 (8 seasons), Soriano is 10th in ERA.  Of the guys ahead of him, one is retired (Wagner), one didn’t pitch last year (Soria), one has barely pitched last two years (Saito), another barely pitched last year (Rivera)...Soriano is only 44th in IP though.

I think - when healthy - Soriano has put up some pretty good numbers.  If not elite, he’s at the top of the next tier.  For any ONE season I can see giving him a big payday.  But because of health reasons, and the fact he *isn’t* elite, I agree he doesn’t deserve a multi-year contract.  FWIW, in Friday’s chat Mike Axisa predicted Detroit would give Soriano 3/39.

For any ONE season I can see giving him a big payday.

Which is exactly why they Yankees should give him a qualifying offer. If he takes it, great! Slight overpay at $13M+ but it’s only one year and they can even trade him if they really want to get out of paying him that much because any of the teams that are contenders that want him would likely be willing to deal with the one year overpay. If he signs elsewhere, even better!! Get a draft pick back and with Mo returning the closer role is filled anyways and we’ve seen how Soriano does in a set-up role.

[3] [4] [5] Snuggles, I have to agree with Mel here. Of course it’s entirely subjective, but it always seemed that Soriano was putting runners on base and being lucky to get away with it. And SG is taking care of the non-subjective stuff.

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