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Saturday, December 30, 2017

FanRag: Heyman | Yankees eyeing Yu Darvish

New York Yankees people do like Yu Darvish, and at a reasonable price, he will be seriously considered. It seems everyone’s strategy this year is to wait for the price to drop.

The Yankees are intent on adding a fine starting pitcher and have had trade discussions regarding Gerrit Cole, Chris Archer and Michael Fulmer, and are looking at free agent Alex Cobb, and possibly some others. Cole is probably the most likely fit in terms of a trade, as Fulmer is coming off an injury and Archer plays on the division rival Rays, but word is, there’s been little progress since the Winter Meetings in talks with Pittsburgh.

The Yankees also are believed to like Cobb, but sources suggest they haven’t given up the idea of Darvish — though it might be a tight squeeze to sign him and stay under the $197 million luxury tax threshold. It’s possible they might need to make a little room, which could entail the trade of another high-priced veteran, perhaps Jacoby Ellsbury, who has a full no-trade clause but is said to be willing to consider a few scenarios.

I’m not sure what’s reasonable.  Four years and $80M?  Five years and $100M?  I like Darvish, but not if it means trading TPBG™ to fit Yu’s salary into HalCap™. Trading Smellsbury on the other hand…

I’d certainly rather sign Darvish than trade for Gerrit Cole.  FIP be damned.

--Posted at 9:35 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

How much could they save by trading Smells? I can’t imagine a team would be willing to assume more than $5-$7m a year unless a prospect was included. I would be willing to trade Gardner if they were overwhelmed.

Timing could be a problem. Suppose they sign Darvish and go over the limit, hoping to trade Ellsbury in order to get bad under the limit.  If they can’t trade Ellsbury, they would have to trade someone they’d rather keep, like Gardner.

It is pretty darn annoying how the HalCap is, in effect, a hard cap. Will teams be happy when they stop receiving revenue sharing from the Yankees and Dodgers due to the effectual hard cap?

The Darvish thing has to be about driving his price up.  I
don’t think you trade Headley to clear cap
space and then blow past it to sign Darvish.

I feel like Ellsbury could be moved mid-season. This would be a scenario where he stays healthy and performs well in the time given to him. A competing team that needs an OF but be more willing to take on salary at that point in time. It would then allow the Yankees to take on some salary in a deal of their own for the pennant race.

[3] Teams are already enjoying the salary suppression the faux hard cap has created. Plus, it keeps the Yankees and Dodgers payroll closer to most teams so those owners can have their own HalCap that is even lower and claim they are spending what they can for their market. All the owners get more yachts, players get less of the pie, and minor Leaguers are still getting the shaft.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/12/8/16754038/new-york-yankees-top-20-prospects-for-2018

Not sure if that was posted before here. This was a great read for my baseball starved self.

[7] Three big things to take from this. One, The Yankees have a bunch of top tier prospects that should be ready in 2018. Two, the pipeline is pretty well distributed - despite that pretty deep well of 2018-ready talent, the top 20 still ranges down all levels of the system. Three, The lists of other C+ prospects and “Others of Note” are very long.

Also, I was shocked to see that Tyler Austin still qualifies as a rookie.

Speaking of Tyler Austin, I wonder who the backup first baseman is.  If Bird is out for a period of time, I guess the replacement is Austin.  But, if they need a replacement for a day or two, who covers first base? (I am assuming that Austin will not be on the major league squad.) Maybe Judge or Stanton should be a backup there.  Their height would be an asset.

If they bring back the Toddfather, he’d be the back-up. Otherwise, in a pinch I believe it would be Romine.

By the way, it’s kind of annoying that they are not even seemingly ENTERTAINING the idea of upgrading from Romine as the back-up catcher. That seems like a spot where you could pretty easily see an upgrade without spending a ton of money.

Tyler Austin can hit LHPing.
10 Hard to fathom considering he’s not even a particularly good defensive catcher.

I’ll admit, though, that the free agent market isn’t exactly inspiring among catchers. Besides the guys who will get a lot of money (Avila and Lucroy), who would even necessarily be a clear upgrade over Romine?

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/catcher/

[12]  The rock who used to sub for Jeter?

If they sign Darvish without losing TPBG or Robertson and unload TRO for payroll relief, Boone is going to turn out to be one hell of a manager.

Congratulations to SG and the city of Buffalo for the Bills making the playoffs by almost blowing a game to the Dolphins and then needing a last minute comeback by the Bengals to squeak past the Ravens.

They play the Jaguars next week, and I know very little about professional football, but I do know that Blake Bortles sucks.

15 They’ll never get by Clemson.

Happy New Year to all you lovely fools!

Happy New Year!

Happy year 26171 in 3 sunups.

(I’ve invented my own proprietary calendar.)

Can’t believe spring training starts in 17.4 gleeps!

Congrats to fellow Bills fan SG on the end of the drought.

[19]  Happy early new year!

Yanks in on Choi, who apparently mashed AAA.

So, back 1B/DH, This means….

A) bye bye Birdie ?
B) Less need for Todd Frazier, which then means…
B.i) Machado is in the bag
B.ii) Andujar is getting his shot

What other possibilities ?

[23] meant to say backup 1b/dh. All if they actually get him.

Maybe they stash him in AAA and flip another minor leaguer for something ?

Choi would certainly be cheap, but they don’t need him.  Maybe they’re worried about Bird’s history of injuries, but IMHO his past injuries were freak accidents that are unlikely to repeat.

He’d be signed to a minor league contract as depth and he’s not blocking anyone.  If Bird gets hurt Choi and Austin could fill in.

The thing about Choi is that that dude can just flat out hit. Why would he accept a “break in case of emergency” deal from the Yankees? Great for them if he would take it, but I don’t see the fit working for him. It’d be a great move if they could get him signed to a minor league deal.

27 No one picked him up when the Yankees cut him loose over the summer so I’m not sure he can get anything other than a minor league deal from anyone.

During the season is a lot different than the offseason, though. Guys who couldn’t get deals when everyone has full rosters can get spots a lot easier when rosters are up in the air.

So why is he still available ?

Why is JD Martinez still available?

In other words, everyone is still available. There’s been barely any free agent position player signings so far. So guys like Choi likely aren’t going to start signing until the big names start signing.

I’m starting to think there’s collusion happening.  I know everyone wants to wait for the better class next year, but those guys don’t fit every team’s needs or budget.  JD Martinez had 6/120 written all over him.  What’s the holdup?

I guess Wade Davis just set the market for upper tier relievers, in which case I would think the Yankees ought to be exploring a Betances or Robertson deal.

[32] I don’t think it’s collusion but I do think it’s the result of systematic forces. Baseball is stratified enough that the have and have-nots (AKA the do-not-wants) are very clearly defined, but free agency has been subverted by spending restrictions and other factors The result is teams that are set to win or content not to win and, as a result, teams that don’t NEED big money guys and teams for whom those guys are worthless.

Not that every winter is going to be like this, but I think we can trace reasons to conclusions in this extreme case.

I think the collusion happened the “right” way. Before they stepped into the negotiations for the new CBA.

I really don’t understand what the players were thinking.

Fangraphs has Andujar’s projection for next year at 1.0-1.2 WAR and Gleyber’s at 0.5-0.6.

I don’t have anything to add. Seems legit.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15878&position=3B/DH

Disappointed Gleyber isn’t higher. The projection doesn’t seem to include the Arizona Fall League, so I am optimistic that he will exceed this estimate.

I think it’s mostly to do with the fact that he’s only played half a season above A ball and he’s still very young.

35 Im shorting that proposition.

I don’t talk gambler. Does that mean you think they’ll do better or worse than projected?

It could mean he thinks they don’t get the chance.

39 It means I think Gleyeber will produce more WAR than Andujar in 2018.

39 It means I think Gleyeber will produce more WAR than Andujar in 2018.

[35] That’s in 97 games for Andujar and 76 for Torres.

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