The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Does Derek Jeter now project to hit .300?

Like most stat-heads, I know that batting average is not really a good gauge of how good a player is.  That doesn’t mean it’s useless, just that there are better stats to tell us how valuable a player is.

Despite that, I can’t help but find a .300 average more aesthetically pleasing than an average of .299 or less.  Derek Jeter’s made a Hall of Fame career based primarily on hitting .300 or better (.314 career), but after his disappointing 2010 it seemed like those days were over.  He rode a second-half hot streak in 2011 to the cusp of yet another .300 season, but his bid fell short in the season finale.

With his 2 for 3 earlier today Jeter now sits at .396/.440/.593 with nearly a month of the season over.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say he will not finish the year at .396, since I hate him and all.  But I wondered if he should now project to end the year at .300.

I can try and figure this out by running a revised CAIRO for Jeter including the data we have for 2012, then adding that revised projection to what he’s already done.  It looks like this.

player projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Derek Jeter original 644 576 91 165 25 2 9 63 18 5 54 92 .286 .350 .384
Derek Jeter ROY 562 504 80 149 23 1 9 57 15 5 46 79 .295 .356 .402
Derek Jeter revised 658 592 95 183 29 1 13 70 16 6 52 90 .309 .364 .430

ROY: Rest of year projection.
revised: ROY plus 2012 performance

Jeter’s hot April has revised his CAIRO projection from .286/.350/.384 to .295/.356/.402.  Adding that to what he’s done has him ending the year with a line of .309/.364/.430, which would make him worth close to 20 runs more than projected entering the year.  ZiPS was less sanguine about Jeter heading into this season, but its revised projection has moved from .268/.329/.362 to .281/.341/.386 which is actually a bigger improvement relative to its orginal projection than CAIRO’s.

I’ll admit, I didn’t think he still had it in him.  I’m happy to have been wrong so far, and hope I continue to be even wronger. 

--Posted at 8:13 pm by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

I don’t think this really makes you HAPPY.

Did this post just jinx it?

If Jeter gets them back a couple of the WAR they lose from Pineda’s labia surgery maybe they can still get that second wild card.

Derek Jeter. I probably have 500 dollars worth of Jeter stuff laying around the house. All purchased as gifts by close friends or family for me… the Yankees nutjob uncle,brother or nephew. I always liked him but never loved him.I’ve never been the type of Yankees fan that embraced the media darling or super talented can’t miss kind of player.  I would have liked Yogi more than Mantle much as I loved Munson and Nettles way more than a star like Reggie.  Then the new Jeter contract happened. DJ hit like shit in spring of 2011 and the wolves attacked Mr. Perfect with teeth bared.  I found myself defending Jeter for the first time ever, not just to some of you lads but to many others that seemed pleased by his apparent cookedness. ( SG used wronger, I get to use cookedness ) The should have been stated 10 minutes ago coda to this unfortunate never ending post is I am very happy Mr. Jeter is having a batting renaissance that no one including his Mom could have predicted.  Yay CC.

OTF, if it makes you feel better, I’m pretty sure I used “cookedness” a few threads ago.
Agree with everything, feel the same way.

Petrov, cookedness is the best word since vulning. Wings down.

Derek Jeter is one of the biggest reasons I’m a baseball fan. I don’t think he’ll keep it up (they’ll keep throwing righties at him and the BA will plummet) but I hope he gets the MVP he should have already gotten (burn in hell Morneau).

When Derek has a day like today and passes Paul Waner and ties George Brett on the all-time times on base list, I think, well, those two hits were cheap. And you know, it’s the age of the shortstop. Those guys Garciaparra and Tejada are much better. Derek’s, what, the 11th best shortstop in the American League?

It’s a little-known clause in Jeter’s contract that if he does manage to hit over .400 for the year, he’ll actually be awarded Ted Williams’ frozen head.

Go get Ted Williams’ frozen head, Cap’n.

otf, I agree with all you say except I was one of the wolves.

I actually got panicked today imagining Mo’s retirement.  I was hoping he could pitch until 45.  Or later.

I hope Jeter will make me feel the same way.

I feel a little bad for Garcia.  I certainly don’t want him in the rotation any more, but I liked what he did last year and I appreciate that he doesn’t hide from the media.  unlike with some players, you can really tell that he cares and wanted to do better.  I suppose they all do so maybe I’m just a sucker for a guy who wears his heart on his sleeve, or is honest, however you want to put it.  He’ll not be much more than a long footnote in Yankees history but somehow I feel for the guy.

Isn’t it amazing that 16-6 is the best start in Dodger franchise history?

That just sounds wrong.

[4] Hear, hear, OTF.  But I was one of the wolves too like Ugly Johnny.  My bad.

[11] Garcia strikes me as a stand-up guy too.  I don’t hate him but we can’t keep throwing him to the lions.  His Houdini act seems over.

Aaah, Jeter still sucks.  But I’ll be glad to get one last SSS burst out of him.  Better yet, a series of consecutive SSS bursts… wait… oh…

I always like Jeter, but I was incredibly frustrated by, you know, the whole grounders thing.

We could use another can’t-miss player or four right about now.

Would the Angels do Pujols for Teixeira?

[17]
1.) Tell me (someone other than Mel) this isn’t more reprehensible than jumping on a trampoline with your kid.
2.) Shark sent by Lucchino?
3.) Cashman should have known.

[16] Would the Yankees?

So Jeter isn’t a DFA candidate? Or he isn’t one until after tonight’s game?

[20] - His average dipped below .400, I don’t think that leave any doubt about his cookedness.

I’ve always loved Jeter, I feel like I grew up with him. And to OTF’s point, one of the reasons I always liked him is that while he was the Media Darling, he never really fed into it. Never seemed like he was very interested in being a celebrity, just wanted to be the best ball player he could be.

He could have done movies, or rap albums, or been on the red carpet every night, instead he was just boring, evasive, and focused on his craft.

Admirable guy in my opinion. I’ve never once got the sense that he let frustration get him down, and I’ve never once seen him give anything less than full effort.

This will sound corny, but Jeter is the once famous person I can think of that is truly worth admiration.

Of course, since I said that it will probably turn out that he has a basement full of dead hitchhikers after he retires.

Check it out. Our skanky chicks are tougher than the Boston skanky chicks:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/30/red-sox-yankees-fans-fight-girls-video_n_1464003.html

My thougths on jeter, just to weigh in:
1) He is not as great as the fawners think (5 GGs!), but he is a darn good player. Top 10 SS of all time, though where you place him depends on how you count SS’s - Arod, Banks, etc. and how much stock you put into various fielding metrics.
2) He came up to NY as a young kid, and unike many other youngsters who came up he did not snort his life up his nose, cheat on his wife or his taxes, etc. (Not mentioning names but you know who I might be referring to.) Instead he did some nice things (Trun 2). Bravo to him. we were lucky to have him.

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