Sunday, April 29, 2012
Does Derek Jeter now project to hit .300?
Like most stat-heads, I know that batting average is not really a good gauge of how good a player is. That doesn’t mean it’s useless, just that there are better stats to tell us how valuable a player is.
Despite that, I can’t help but find a .300 average more aesthetically pleasing than an average of .299 or less. Derek Jeter’s made a Hall of Fame career based primarily on hitting .300 or better (.314 career), but after his disappointing 2010 it seemed like those days were over. He rode a second-half hot streak in 2011 to the cusp of yet another .300 season, but his bid fell short in the season finale.
With his 2 for 3 earlier today Jeter now sits at .396/.440/.593 with nearly a month of the season over. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he will not finish the year at .396, since I hate him and all. But I wondered if he should now project to end the year at .300.
I can try and figure this out by running a revised CAIRO for Jeter including the data we have for 2012, then adding that revised projection to what he’s already done. It looks like this.
ROY: Rest of year projection.
revised: ROY plus 2012 performance
Jeter’s hot April has revised his CAIRO projection from .286/.350/.384 to .295/.356/.402. Adding that to what he’s done has him ending the year with a line of .309/.364/.430, which would make him worth close to 20 runs more than projected entering the year. ZiPS was less sanguine about Jeter heading into this season, but its revised projection has moved from .268/.329/.362 to .281/.341/.386 which is actually a bigger improvement relative to its orginal projection than CAIRO’s.
I’ll admit, I didn’t think he still had it in him. I’m happy to have been wrong so far, and hope I continue to be even wronger.
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