He looked better at the end of the season—work with the batting coach? I hope he can bounce back next year.

Any news on Tex’s hammy?

I am wondering if Jeter was hurt all year.  Every slow infield grounder that he used to beat out during his career, he was thrown out on every one of them seemingly.  I can’t accept that he all of a sudden lost a few steps over one offseason… by his standards, he looked painfully slow getting down the line.

I would also like to add that the “Jeterian swing” seemed to me to be absent… it looked to me like he was getting the bat through the zone *too quickly* this year, whereas he used to pull his hands through and keep the bat head back, flipping the ball to right field consistently in the past.  I wonder if anyone can dig up a video swing comparison to look at side by side, like I recall seeing with A-Rod a few years back during one of his MVP seasons?

I may be completely off here, but I don’t think its a question of bat speed, as much as I think it was more about technique.  But, being that its 1 AM on Saturday, I could be babbling about nothing.

Is there a high tech way to compare Hughes’s location and movement early in the season when he was virtually untouchable to later in the year when he was Elliot Nessed and homer prone and two strike ineffective?

How would Jeter respond to Kevin Long’s “Home Run Drill”?
Would it be too drastic a change to his “inside-out” mechanics, or would it enable him to hit the inside pitch again?

I think Jeter’s season may well have transformed a four year contract into a three year contract and a $20-22m AAV into a $15-$16m AAV.

I also think it will be made clear that they will only assure him that he will play SS in 2011.

I don’t know… isn’t the drop in OBA almost as significant as the drop in SLG, esp. since it’s supposed to have more impact on value?
And where does that offensive output put him among more or less full-time ML shortstops this year, SG?
Thanks!

[8] By those SS who played at least 100 games, Jeter is 11th in OPS, 4th in the AL.

[7] This makes me warm and happy inside. Hopefully it is true.

The problem was probably just that we didn’t know this:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101023/ap_on_en_ot/eu_britain_jane_austen

Can we have a heatmap of Jeter’s GIDP’s ?

[11] So the takeaway with all this Jane Austen business is…we need more aroma therapy ?

I choose the aroma of malted barley infused with hops.

The money doesn’t really matter to me- it wasn’t killing the team this year, he generates more of it than any other player, and it’s not going to stop them from going after whatever FA’s they want. The years could be trouble though, especially if they can’t find a replacement SS.

[14] I think it’s pretty settled now that Pena is limitted to BUI, though he maybe could start in the AAAA league.

Nunez looked like he has good defensive skills, but had that rookie amped up freak-out body language the few times we saw him. It will be interesting to see how he handles himself next ST.

Jeter’s last 5 wOBAs, according to Fangraphs, were

2006 .399
2007 .369
2008 .343
2009 .390
2010 .320

Which year is the exception to the pattern?

Optimists say 2010 is the exception. They say we should ignore 2010.  They predict that Jeter will bounce back to his levels of 2006 - 2009.

OTOH pessimists might notice that except for 2009, there’s a consistent year on year reduction of around 20 points of wOBA. If one ignores 2009, one might predict a 2011 wOBA in the range of .300 - .320. This is an unpleasant possibility,  but given Jeter’s age, it cannot be ruled out IMHO.

I’m more concerned about Jeter’s defense going forward.

Jeter is on the decline offensively, but I believe he should hover around average. Or at least the average for a SS. But his defense could be a killer.

And I still find it hilarious every starting SS in the AL last season was below average offensively.

Guys, is it time to think the unthinkable…should the Yankees take away Jeter’s captaincy?  In the parlance of Jane Austen’s world, he should be put on the beach with half-pay.

“it wasn’t killing the team this year, he generates more of it than any other player, and it’s not going to stop them from going after whatever FA’s they want”
Yankz, I feel better now. But remind me - how do you know this?
And as for FGas’s question… does he actually have to be on the roster to be captain?

How do I know what? I can’t say I’ve seen the Yankees books, but I don’t remember them ever passing on a free agent they wanted. Maybe Beltran. And that was all before the new stadium. If Jeter, Mo, and Andy stay for the same amount, they can still save money by letting Obvious Mistake Johnson and Vazquez go.

The money-generating thing is also a guess, but I’m pretty sure it’s right.

Leads back to the “do they actually have a budget” question.
I thought we pretty much concluded last off-season, or the previous one, that they actually do, no?

Would the Yanks like to have both Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford next year?  Of course. Any team would.  Yet, I expect the Yanks to go after Lee only.  If money were no object, they’d sign both of them.

[22]“Leads back to the “do they actually have a budget” question.
I thought we pretty much concluded last off-season, or the previous one, that they actually do, no?”

Sure looks like it.

Here’s the payrolls since 2004: $184M, $208M, $195M, $190M, $209M, $201M, $213M

Seems like they want to stay in the $200-210M zone.

“Would the Yanks like to have both Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford next year?  Of course. Any team would.  Yet, I expect the Yanks to go after Lee only.  If money were no object, they’d sign both of them. “

I’d take Lee and Werth instead, if we’re getting ponies.  The RH bat works better in a 4 man OF/DH rotation.

Marte out until after all star break. Is the state of diagnosis so lame that he couldn’t have gotten a diagnosis earlier and had the operation over the summer?

[26] Or shoulder surgery is very risky and was probably left as a last resort measure. It’s likely that the doctors though he could rehab the original injury and he just ended up making it significantly worse.

Its a shame Marte wasn’t healthy, he might have been able to get Murphy or Hamilton out once in a while.

[27]  That’s probably why doctors held back on performing surgery for Pavano’s injured buttocks.  You just don’t mess around with the ass if you don’t have to.

Anyone want to take a shot at what Hughes and Chamberlain will get offered (or receive via arbitration) for 2011?

Oddly, this page lets you put Alex Rodriguez both at third AND at SS.
http://www.nypost.com/d/yankees/index.htm
Problem solved!

“Oddly, this page lets you put Alex Rodriguez both at third AND at SS.
http://www.nypost.com/d/yankees/index.htm
Problem solved! “

And it doesn’t let you DH Posada.

Hey, ARod to SS, sign Beltre, and we’re good!

I knew there was a reason he is signed for the rest of eternity.

[32] You also can put Montero or Posada at C, but you can’t put either at DH.

The Yanks could sign Lee with the money they’re taking off the books from Javy and Nick Johnson and automatically be a much better team next year, right?

If all they get is Cliff Lee (and re-sign Mo, Jetes, Pettitte), would they seriously not be the favorites to win the AL?

CC, Lee, Pettitte, Hughes, AJ is as good as anyone else’s rotation, except the Red Sox’s 24 aces.

And the lineup, even if we see more regression, still led the majors in runs scored in 2010, so even with regression, how bad can they be? And if Montero seriously DOES come up and platoons at DH/C with Jorge, that’s gotta be a big improvement offensively, no? Enough to offset A-Rod and Jeter aging?

I’m watching Joba’s 7/25/08 start against the Red Sox right now. It’s been repeated ad nauseam at this point, but man was he awesome. My favorite day of the week in 2008/2009 was Joba Day.

I expect the team to get many calls on Joba this winter, and there’s a good chance he may not even be a Yankee in 2011. Oh, what could have been…

[35, 36] In which case Joba will be a beast, and Lee will go 12-14.

I’m fully happy with Pena as the BUI, but even with Po and Jesus I think we still need a BUC. Can Cervelli stick on a team with Jesus and Posada ? Didn’t they have him spend some time in the OF, in an effort to have more reasons to keep him around ?

“The Yanks could sign Lee with the money they’re taking off the books from Javy and Nick Johnson and automatically be a much better team next year, right?

If all they get is Cliff Lee (and re-sign Mo, Jetes, Pettitte), would they seriously not be the favorites to win the AL?”

I don’t think $17M gets Lee, but you’re close.

I’m expecting Lee to get $25m AAV.

[39]  I sincerely doubt that unless he goes short years, like 4/100.

CC only got a little more than $22M p.a., and he was younger, in a much better economy.

[40] Wasn’t C.C. signed around the low point for the economy?

[41]  Low point of the financial crisis, but I don’t think anyone thought we’d get sustained 9-10% unemployment, with no sign of recovery to date.

I think MLB owners are more nervous now than then.

[37] I think any arrangement with Posada and Montero is more like them each being some part of a full time catcher that adds up to 1 catcher, and Cervelli being the backup. I was very down on Cervelli because I had confused his MiLB performance with Ramiro Pena’s. Looking at it objectively, Cervelli is definitely good enough to be a backup catcher. He has the ISoP to get him a decent OBP at the MLB level, even if he hits .250, which it looks like he probably can. The thing I wish would match up would be the stud defense, but he’s had his share of “WTF?” moments. He was only 23, though, so maybe those things will pass with time.

[40] I sincerely doubt that unless he goes short years, like 4/100.

When we were about to trade Montero for Lee, I think I said something like Lee was better than Halladay, and got a lot of disagreements. When Halladay was traded from Toronto to Philadelphia, he was entering his age 33 season. He signed a 4 year extension that looks like this:

10: $15.75M (his then current contract)
11: $20M
12: $20M
13: $20M
14: $20M option which vests with what seems like obvious attainable performance criteria

I would say that’s the comp right there. Lee will be a year younger and is arguably not as good. If he gets what Halladay got, it’d be $95.75M/5 years.

I’ve also always wondered if agents advise their clients on their marketability for their next contract. Assuming no catastrophic injury, couldn’t you argue that Lee would be better off signing until through his age 36 season, and then trying to get a 2-3 year deal after that, instead of signing through his age 37 season? I think you can, but I also understand wanting the guaranteed money.

[36] Chamberlain is entering his first arbitration eligible year. I think a lot of was sapped him of his ability was the September 08 injury that he only finally got over in 2010. Still, my point about the arbitration eligibility is that perhaps he’ll realize that if he had pitched better, he’d be making more money.

[43]  I agree on Lee.  5/100-110 is my guess.

“The Yanks could sign Lee with the money they’re taking off the books from Javy and Nick Johnson and automatically be a much better team next year, right?

There’s quite a few changes in the payroll for next year. Some small (Sabathia and Rodriguez make a $1M less, I think) and some larger (Swisher and Granderson go up about a few million each.) I have them at $200M if they get rid Berkman ($2M buy out, not sure if the budget includes the $4M Houston sent), Kearns, Thames, Wood, resign Jeter at $20M, Rivera at $10M, and Pettitte at $11.75M (what he made last year.) The opening day payroll was $213M I think, so if you add $20M that Lee would get you’d blow that away. That also has Montero promoted and the remaining 25 man spots being filled with guys like Pena and Golson (and someone else) making the league minimum.

Burnett’s contract is what really hurts if you’re in love with reducing the payroll.

[46] Oh, I also have Hughes at a $4M deal, and Chamberlain at $1M.

[46] “resign Jeter at $20M”

Well that’s the place to free up $10M, isn’t it?

[48] Well that’s the place to free up $10M, isn’t it?

Hey, I’m with you and Joel Sherman. I asked Santa for 1 year/$7M, we’l see how that works out though.

“Hey, I’m with you and Joel Sherman. I asked Santa for 1 year/$7M, we’l see how that works out though. “

I think 3/30 is more than fair.

You could also probably chew Andy down a couple mil. too.

[50] If they really see Culver as an MLB SS, his age makes Jeter’s contract interesting. Culver would still only be 21 after a 3 year contract for Jeter.

[51]  I don’t think you can plan anything around an 18 y.o. coming out of his first half-season as a pro.

[52] I agree, I’m just trying think of at least one plan they might have. Certainly they draft a guy 1st overall thinking he’ll play at the MLB level at some point. My only question was whether or not the saw him moving to 2B, 3B or the OF.

2011 contract commitments per Cot’s

Rodriguez, Alex $32M
Sabathia, CC $24.287M
Teixeira, Mark $23.125M
Burnett, AJ $16.5M
Posada, Jorge $13.1M
Cano, Robinson $10M
Swisher, $9.1M
Granderson, Curtis $10M
Marte, Damaso $4M
Igawa, Kei $4M

if they get rid Berkman,... Kearns, Thames, Wood

I presume you are including keeping Cervelli in all this.

How realistic is it that they divest of Berkman, Kearns, AND Thames on behalf of Golson and Montero ?

How desirable is it that they part ways with Wood ?

“How realistic is it that they divest of Berkman, Kearns, AND Thames on behalf of Golson and Montero ?

How desirable is it that they part ways with Wood ? “

They’re all FAs, there is no “divesting” to be done.  Berkman and Wood’s options are at $15M ($2M buyout) and $11M respectively.  No way they pick up either.

Wood will get more money/years to close elsewhere.

Igawa, Kei $4M

Luckily, Igawa doesn’t count towards the major league payroll as he isn’t on the 40 man. That $4M is “player development”.

But Brackman is on the 40 and has a ML contract, that should count.

[58] Brackman signed an MLB contract, but only for 4 year. He’s obviously still under team control, but his salary isn’t set for 2011 as best I can tell.

[55] If Wood will re-sign at a reasonable amount, the no ahead and keep him. But his option is for 11MM and he has a long history of injuries. Keeping him for 11 MM is silly and he’ll almost certainly get a better offer than what Cashman is willing to give him somewhere else.

[60] That should read “go ahead.”

They’re all FAs, there is no “divesting” to be done.

I’m looking at it from the standpoint of retention of the current roster/current budget.

I’m looking at it from the standpoint of retention of the current roster/current budget.

But the options on those guys are larger than their salaries this year, I think, so the payroll would increase.