The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Dan Szymborski: Yankee Bullpen Projects to be Historically Good

Writer Dan Szymborski is slowly releasing his ZIPS projections for Major League teams and he notes about the Yankees that,

I don’t bleieve ZiPS has ever projected a bullpen to be better than the 2018 Yankees and I don’t believe it’s even particularly close.

And then,

Putting it in less vague terms:  ZiPS projects 10 pitchers on the Yankees 40-man as relievers.  Their projected ERA+ in descending order:  177, 159, 146, 145, 136, 129, 125, 120, 112, 112.


--Posted at 9:53 pm by Brian Cronin / 88 Comments | - (0)


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Can any of them play 2b ?

They’re so dominant that I really don’t want them to trade any of their relievers just to make cap room to get another starter. Re-sign Todd Frazier and go into next year set to go.

Green + Warren could pitch 6 innings, thus taking the place of one SP.  I doubt that the Yanks will go that route as a regular thing, but once in a while they might.

Rught now Green seems to be a 2 inning pitcher who needs a few days to recuperate.

It’s amazing how good Green has been that he is now this, like, freaking WEAPON that they have to choose best how to utilize.

As good as those numbers look, it seems like there is always a bullpen guy around 190-200+ on good teams.  With that in mind - holy shit!

Green was over 240 in 2017, Warren was over 190.  Robertson in limited duty as a Yankee was like 400 or some such nonsense.  Half of that would be fine.

Betances has been a 200+ guy in the past, maybe he can get back there.

Betances is cooked, I am glad there’s depth.

(note: I said the same thing about CC and the reverse jinx worked)

Maybe Green is like a nuclear weapon—more valuable as a threat than actually used?

Anyone care to wager a guess on whose projections those are?

Great question. I have NO clue. I literally cannot even hazard a guess outside of 177 PROBABLY being Green, but even there, it could easily be a bounceback projection for Chapman (I know Steamer likes Chapman the best among all Yankee relievers).

It’s funny, I was JUST reading about how the Royals might look to cash in on Scott Alexander this offseason and bam, that’s just what they did. Annoyingly, they seem to have MOSTLY just used him to get rid of Joakim Soria’s salary, the cheap fucks.

If baseball is going to have a de facto hard cap, they better start having a cap FLOOR.

I bet Betances is in the top 3 projections.

177 Chapman
159 Betances
146 Greene
145 Kahnle
136 Robertson
129 Warren
125 Heller
120 Shreve
112 German
112 Holder

I didn’t look at any stats so some of the names might not even be right.  Toward the end, I was just trying to think up who could be on the list.

Those are my guesses by the way, not the actual list. In case that wasn’t clear.

Zips says Michael Pineda’s top comp is Carl Pavano.  I found that amusing.  And sad.  Mostly sad.

[15] I think that was my exact reaction.

I think Green still has a chance to be a significantly above average starting pitcher.

Agreed.  Lots of people wanted to put Severino in the pen last off-season.  At least give him a shot after doing as well as he did last season.

Imagine how different the team would look without Severino up top but pitching the 8th instead.

Doesn’t Green need another pitch to be an effective starter?

[19] Yes, at least one. Severino’s question mark was his third pitch not his second.

Higashioka 0.6 WAR
Romine 0.2 WAR

I particulary liked some of the comps:

Luis Severino:Doc Gooden
Greg Bird:David Ortiz
Giancarlo Stanton:Harmon Killebrew
Sonny Gray:Jack Morris
Jordan Montgomery:Andy Pettitte
Justus Sheffield:Jerry Reuss
Chasen Shreve:Mitch Williams (not Ricky Vaughn?)
Gleyber Torres:Jay Bell
Dellin Betances and Tommy Kahnle: Jim Kern

[23] Andy Pettitte -  4/5 starter is a beautiful thing. I think Montgomery is going to have another sneakily good season.

I don’t get those comps. Severino to Gooden? Just look at Goodens 1985. Come on - I like Sevy but let’s not go crazy. Gooden never had a year like 2016 Sevy. I think we are falling in love way too fast here.

Monty vs petite - I will let you know after 2018.

HOFer Jack Morris (puke) > sonny gray

Jerry Reuss > some kid who has never pitched in MLB

[25] You may be misunderstanding how these comps work.

They look at the projection for 2018 and find the most similar statistical season of the same age season for the same position.

So Severino’s closest statistic match to his 2018 projection is Gooden’s 1989.

Jerry Reuss’ age 22 season was pretty bad.

If there’s $15M available to Cashman under the tax threshold after accounting for everthing, and we assume that he’ll spend that money, and we assume a win costs about $8M, there’s a couple of wins still to come.

Baltimore interested in Andujar. Do you throwhim in the trade for Macho, provided there’s an extension involved ?

28. If it’s something like Andujar and Adams, I’d do that, but then any other top ten prospects are off limits.

Machado won’t do an extension.  This deal doesn’t make sense to me.

Also, the Yankees don’t have enough shitty pitchers to make an offer Baltimore would like.

(26) ahhh…had I seen Sevy = Gooden 1989 I would not have made the comment. I was thinking an earlier Gooden.

Why does Zips project guys who aren’t Yankees any more like Garcia, T Frazier, and Cale Coshow (bless you!)?

Just remembered Gooden got hurt in 1989…is that part of the projection? That and coke.

[34] I don’t think it takes innings into account (aside from some sort of minimum). Otherwise it would be hard to see how Sonny Gray’s 2018 matches up with the 291 innings of the Jack Morris year he matched up with.

Infield woes solved, Yankees sign Jace Peterson.

Because we needed a sub-replacement level player for….exactly what purpose ?

What’s his vertical leap?  It’s like Watergate.  “Follow the vertical leap.”

Oh, I get it,  now. He’s the new and improved Refsneyder.

More llke bad Ref with no upside, or a poor man’s Kozma.

Minor league deal. Nothing to complain about. Now he can compete with Jabari Blash for Mason Williams Prize. (Least necessary 40 man player)

Who is the poor man’s Jace Peterson?

He’s like that stuff they put in cheap hot dogs - organizational filler.

Ye of little faith, from MLBTR
“It’s worth remembering that Peterson was not long ago considered a quality prospect. And he did turn in a .254/.350/.366 output, with 52 walks against 69 strikeouts, over 408 plate appearances in 2016.” Quality prospect they sez.

[44] In Peruvian Winter Ball?

[43] They put AAAA players in hotdogs?

Post speculating D-Rob on the chopping block. I’d be bummed both to lose such a valuable bullpen piece and also a guy who clearly loves being in NY.

[48] If the Yanks need to dump payroll, it pretty much comes down to trading DRob or GGBG.  I hate losing either of them, but looked at cold-heartedly, they’re both expendable.  The team has a surplus or outfielders and a surplus of relief pitchers.

There’s a lot to be said for not making a move until spring training is underway. That way, they will have a better idea of Andujar’s fielding and Betances’s control.

That option would solve a lot of roster-crunch problems.

[50] Where is the crunch coming from?

The crunch comes from the international signees, who give a little texture.

[53] I would have guessed from the scrappy middle infielder, what with all their grit.

Removing a 2 win player to get a 6 win player, no brainer.

Removing a 3 win player to make room to hopefully sign another 3 win player at the same position that you like better, also makes a lot of sense.

Removing a 4 win outfielder and replacing him with a 2 win outfielder the same age? Or removing one of the best relievers in a bullpen that is far and away your greatest advantage as a team (and who demonstrated during the playoffs just how valuable it was to have him in the bullpen?)? Don’t like either one of those ideas.

Solarte to Jays. Is Donaldson actually leaving?

I think Solarte is more there to play middle infield. Travis and Tulo both get hurt a lot. Then again, they also traded for Almeydes Diaz, so that DOES seem a bit sketchy.

Here’s another idea (which I don’t think the Yanks will do).  Trade Gardner, move Judge to LF and sign (or trade for) a DH who can’t field, but can still hit.  That kind of DH should be relatively cheap.

The underlying idea is that Judge and Stanton are both good fielders.  Using one or the other as DH is inefficient use of Yankee assets. 

I would guess that by 2019, Judge will be the regular Yankee LF.

Doesn’t Judge more or less have a cannon of an arm ? He young and highly mobile, but he is still a guy who is pushing 7’ tall. RF is his past, present, and future.

By the time we get Trout, he’ll be broken down and needing to move off CF into LF.

Stand pat, let the kids play 2B and 3B. Reset the tax, then go out and grab Macho and Trouto at the same time. We’ll need 2 more starters and a RP by that time as well. The first $300m team in history !!!

Trout’s not a FA next year but I respect the idea.

There was an interesting “Effectively Wild” posted today where they talk to a guy who’s a baseball executive and former football executive.  It’s interesting in a lot of ways, but one of my main takeaways was that football teams have no incentive to be innovative because it’s a short season with a salary cap, and even the shittiest teams are basically just waiting to draft a great quarterback and can win just doing the same thing everyone else does.

This baseball salary cap sucks.  We’re already in a situation where “poor” teams make money fielding a team that no one goes to see.

[61] Yeah, that’s pretty much why I stopped watching football. Every team is the same, runs the same system, has the same players. Boring, homogenized, dreck.

62 It’s sense of self importance turned me off and now I may or may not watch the last quarter of the Super Bowl. That’s it.Apropos of nothing reading Molly’s Game and Tobey Maguire is a major dick.

I wake up every day the crack of 10/1030 and come here looking for Yankee news. Cash do something!

[64] Thank goodness the Yanks signed Jace Peterson. It gave us something to talk about.

Jace Peterson is young enough to be the lovechild of a famed ex-Yankee lethario. I submit that Jace Peterson is just a cleverly disguised anagram of PACE JETERSON.

(I’m assuming Icelandic naming xonventions.)

66 Actually the love grand child of Fritz Peterson and Mrs Kekich.

[63] I don’t know anyone famous, but he’s a friend of a friend and supposedly the nicest guy in the world.  I guess opinions can differ.

68 At least not in the poker world, he made Molly Bloom bark like a seal for a $1,000 chip.

[53] Got tragically undersold.

The Week Of The Living Dead General Managers.

Can you read Cashman’s mind?  When he dumped Headley, what was he thinking?
1. Andujar is ready to handle 3B?
2. Frazier will give up on getting a multi-year contract and sign for 1 year at $10 million?
3. We can easily pick up someone as good as Headley for less money?
4. I hate Headley?
5. Torres is fast enough to cover both 2B and 3B simulteously?

I believe he is thinking - Headley is done due to his back. Worst case, role with Andujar and pick up an upgrade if needed before the deadline. Best case, sign Frazier for one year. Meanwhile, still explore trade possibilities for upgrades at 2B or 3B. Also, sign Machado or Donaldson next off-season. Also also, not sure why everyone is freaking the farns out about TWO infield positions as Wade/Torreyes, and Torres can easily get the two wins Castro would have.

Could Bonds hit. 100/.200/.300 this year?


Bobby Bonds?

With or without eyedrops?

Bobby Bonds would obviously hit 1.000/1.000/4.000. In between cigarettes in the dugout.

[63] What’s the deal with Tobey Maguire? He was great in Tropic Thunder

Maguire, oddly enough, is part of Leo DiCaprio’s “crew,” and the rumor is that Leo had been pushing for him for years to get divorced so that he could party more with the rest of the group, so I imagine that Maguire was probably a bit of a douche to be around.

79 According to Molly Bloom’s book at least at the poker table he was a douche.

He’s also supposed to be the basis for the Michael Cera character in the movie.

81 He is. I wanted to read the book first.  And Tobey’s the only one she treated badly.  Some of the reviews say the movie’s overly talky and concentrates on the trial too much. I like Sorkin usually though I couldn’t finish Jobs. I really wish either David O Russell or Adam McKay had directed.

Todd NY Post “
“Once we lost that last game to the Astros, I take that flight home, I’m talking to my wife, and I’m like, ‘All right, I’m jobless right now.’ We started laughing together,” Frazier said. “It is what it is. I have the options to do what I want to do, which is great. I would love a multi-year deal, but I am not closing the door on anything. I’m prepared for anything.”

Jobs was overrated but Sorkin is capable of killer scenes. The Asshole speech in Social Network is just fantastic.

84 I generally like him, enjoyed Social Network and Newsroom. This one he directed also.

[72] I think by adding Stanton, Clint Frazier became a luxury. So Cashman is thinking, “I can spend $13MM for 2 WAR from Chase Headley, or I can trade Clint Frazier to someplace like Pittsburgh, bring back, say, Gerrit Cole and Josh Harrison, and spend that $13MM on those TWO guys and get 5 or 6 WAR for my money.

And as ted points out, he can probably get 2 WAR from some combination of Andujar/Torreyes/Wade/Torres virtually for free.

Headley’s a nice placeholder for a team in transition, but a win-now team that’s willing to trade premium prospects can do better with that roster spot and those $13MM.

[82] I enjoyed Molly’s Game. If you like Sorkin or Jessica Chastain it’s probably worth checking out.

The River Ave Blues podcast us terrible.

Thanks for the warning.

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