The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, January 21, 2013

CBS: Yankees Agree To New Deal With Logan, Waiting On Robertson

NEW YORK (CBSNewYork/AP) — Left-hander Boone Logan and the New York Yankees have agreed to a $3.15 million, one-year contract, a raise of $1.25 million.

Logan earned the trust of Joe Girardi’s as a reliable and durable bullpen arm.  He agreed Friday on the non-guaranteed deal avoided salary arbitration.

...

One New York player remains in arbitration, with reliever David Robertson asking for a raise from $1,625,000 to $3.55 million and the Yankees offering $2.85 million.

Baseball Reference: From 2010 to 2012, (At least 80% games in relief), sorted by greatest WAR for Pitchers

Rk Player WAR From To G IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+ HR
1 Craig Kimbrel 6.2 2010 2012 163 160.1 84 28 26 62 283 1.46 269 6
2 David Robertson 6.2 2010 2012 199 188.2 151 54 52 87 252 2.48 173 11
3 Sean Marshall 6 2010 2012 231 211.1 179 64 58 58 243 2.47 167 7
4 Mariano Rivera 5.9 2010 2012 134 129.2 92 29 27 21 113 1.87 231 5
5 Mike Adams 5.8 2010 2012 206 192.2 148 48 44 54 192 2.06 195 11
6 Eric O’Flaherty 5.4 2010 2012 198 175 143 37 31 58 149 1.59 246 7
7 Jim Johnson 5.4 2010 2012 166 186 167 62 56 41 121 2.71 156 10
8 Sergio Romo 5.3 2010 2012 202 165.1 112 35 34 29 203 1.85 198 13
9 Grant Balfour 5.2 2010 2012 194 192 128 54 52 65 187 2.44 163 15
10 Neftali Feliz 5.2 2010 2012 142 174.1 113 58 55 71 162 2.84 158 14
11 Rafael Betancourt 5.2 2010 2012 200 182.1 151 65 63 28 219 3.11 150 22
12 Tyler Clippard 5.1 2010 2012 224 252 172 83 79 96 300 2.82 140 26
13 Rafael Soriano 5.1 2010 2012 175 169.1 124 49 47 56 162 2.5 165 14
14 Darren Oliver 4.9 2010 2012 187 169.1 143 50 43 41 161 2.29 193 10
15 Darren O’Day 4.8 2010 2012 157 145.2 109 42 41 31 132 2.53 173 18
16 Koji Uehara 4.8 2010 2012 145 145 95 39 38 17 183 2.36 184 20
17 Matt Belisle 4.7 2010 2012 230 244 252 103 89 48 218 3.28 142 17
18 Joel Hanrahan 4.6 2010 2012 205 198 154 63 60 78 228 2.73 141 15
19 Casey Janssen 4.5 2010 2012 173 188 165 61 60 46 183 2.87 148 17
20 Jesse Crain 4.5 2010 2012 189 181.1 132 61 55 81 192 2.73 156 17

Obviously if Mo doesn’t miss the bulk of 2012 he’s probably at the top of this list and Kimbrel spent most of 2010 in the minors, but Robertson probably deserves what he’s asking for.  I guess from the Yankees’ point of view it behooves them to pay him as little as they can in 2013 so that he won’t make that much more in 2014, when every penny spent above necessary is a disaster.

I was wondering over the weekend if the entire $189M payroll situation is a well-calculated and thought-out negotiating ploy to deal with Robinson Cano.  Then I realized that the Yankees aren’t that clever.

--Posted at 8:58 am by SG / 30 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

If Mo doesn’t miss 2012, he laps the field.

I hope Roberson’s agent has seen this chart.  If he uses it to negotiate, he should make a contribution to rlyw.

Who would have thought that Tyler Clippard would be more valuable than Joba?

Clippard was a bad trade by cashsman.
Has anyone ever bothered tallying up each GMs trades (using WAR in let’s say the following N seasons, as well as salary) to see which GMs are better than others? 

There was a book TRADED that did some stuff like this, but as it used WAR for the rest of the career of the players involved (even though some trades were pre-free agent dumps) and used Win Shares instead of WAR, it left much to be desired. I liked it anyway. 

Clippard for Alabadufus was a bad trade.
Seemingly so was AJax + IPK + Coke for Grandy - though it is the money that really makes it worse.
Betemit for Swisher was a great trade.
etc

Gotta figure out a formula (how many years to include in N - maybe until player hits free agency?; how to include salary - maybe figure out the avg cost per win share and anything under that adds value to the trade?), but it sure sounds like something some smart guy who runs an awesome website should be able to figure out and publish. (Feel free to keep the royalties; just give me a free copy of the book)

and of course a section on free agent signings by GM (using WAR received and money paid out) would add value to the analysis.

I like Boone Logan, but am I the only one who thinks that’s a lot for him?

Guy averaging 2 WAR/y at high leverage, in his prime, one year deal at $3M?  That seems like highway robbery to me.

[6] - 2 WAR a year?  You would pay Boone Logan $10M per?  I guess we value relievers VERY differently. 

To me, he is a nice middle of the road bullpen arm.

[4] I haven’t thought it through analytically (indeed I lack the capacity), but is there some way to figure into your hypothetical framework for evaluating a trade, whether the player acquired puts a team over the top?  In other words, even if team A overpays in terms of salary and WAR to acquire a player, maybe that acquisition is justified because that player makes an immediate, substantial difference to that team’s success—e.g. getting to the WS when they otherwise would not have.

[7] I do not wish to put words in the esteemed poet Rilke’s mouth, but where, may I ask, did he say that he would pay Looney Bogus $10m per year?  His contention is that $3m for one year of a 2 WAR reliever is a good deal.  That sounds right to me.

I am really getting annoyed at this 189 million limit. Where is my entitlement?!

[9] - That’s why there was a question mark at the end of it.  I was asking. 

But rather than guess and put more words in his mouth, I want to know what kind of adjustment he used to get him to 2 WAR a year in the first place.

Pretty sure rilkefan is talking about Robertson being worth 2 WAR per year.

Sorry, [6] was about Robertson, who the Yankees offered <$3M.

Don’t get me started about Gardner’s contract.

Do bWAR or fWAR take leverage into account when calculating reliever WAR?

Salaries for position players and SPs tend to follow the ~5 million per win pretty well, but relievers (at least top tier) tend to get considerably more money than WAR says they are worth - see Soriano and Mo.

Maybe it is because most relievers are pretty replaceable while there are only a few relievers who are consistently very good for a long time.

WAR says Robertson is probably worth about 10 million a year, but on the open market he will probably get 13-15 million.

bWAR does account for leverage.

What arbitration year is Robertson in? His second? I’m pretty sure that affects what he gets, but the internet isn’t telling me exactly how.

[8] unfortunately, trying to quantify how Player X put a team over the top in a short series is nigh impossible, I think.

Evaluating trades is tough, but I don’t think Cashman is very adept at talent swaps.  He’s better at getting talent in salary dumps (Abreu, Swisher), but straight talent swaps ... not so much.

But it also depends on how teams value, well, money.  Getting 1 WAR at say $500k is probably more valuable to the Pirates than the Yankees getting 1 WAR at $3 million.  The Yankees have shown that they’d rather get a veteran who could produce 0-3.5 WAR for FA money rather than take a flier on a young cost-controlled player who could produce -0.5 to 2 WAR.

[5] bWAR has him at 2.1 WAR over the last 3 years, or .7 wins/year.  So if next year he does what he averages, that’s $3.5MM.  fWAR has him at 1.7, or a little under .6/year.  So that’s like $2.9MM.  If you use RA-9 wins instead, it’s 2.0, or a little under .7/year…maybe $3.25MM?

Basically, back of envelope, if you use bWAR or RA-9 wins from FanGraphs, it’s probably a perfectly fair contract when taking into account a slight discount for last arb year.  If you use fWAR, it’s a slight overpay, but by like $300K.  So how much is it worth to the Yankees to have it settled early, and not have to get into ST w/o Logan under contract?

Maybe next year with $189MM and all that they need to worry about pinching every penny.  But I don’t think this is a problem contract at all.

[16] 2nd, and he’s eligible for a 3rd year after 2013.  I don’t think his salary in 2013 has much effect on his 2014 salary.  That is, if he’s his normal self offering him $500K less in 2013 won’t mean he’ll make even $250K less in 2014.

Most likely, they are just prioritizing getting contracts with players in their last year of arbitration finalized first, and now that those are done they’ll turn to Robertson and work something out in a few days.  IMHO.

[17] I think it’s extremely difficult to gauge how effective he is at “talent swaps” b/c his goals are often different than say Friedman.  Cashman is very rarely dealing from a position where he’s unloading a talented veteran and trying to get the most talent back.  Usually, he’s trying to get someone who fills a specific need to help the current team win in the upcoming year, at the sacrifice of future years.

So for example, the Granderson trade.  I was (mildly) against it, b/c I thought that IPK and Jackson would provide lots of value in future years.  I admitted then that I thought Granderson would provide more value in 2010/11 - turns out that IPK and espeically Jackson exceeded expectations - but that in 2012 and (especially) 2013 and beyond, they’d get tons more value from the youngsters.  Cashman’s goal was to field the best team in 2010, and worry about later years…later.  Lots of other trades have been that way too; maximize the chance for the current team to win the Series, figure out future years sometime later.

That may not be the best strategy, but 1) until last year he didn’t know his payroll would be capped at ~$25MM less than most years 2) Ownership has usually demanded that he put a winner on the field in the current year.

He’s definitely made mistakes, yes.  But I think he often gets judged by the wrong standards…

[18] - Yeah, but I guess that goes back to the discussion some of us where having with Ichiro.  Just because wins are worth $5M per doesn’t mean I want to pay a 1 win player $5M.

I would argue that is even more true in the bullpen.

yeah, what Robertson, Clippard, and Joba should have taught us is that relievers are easy to find. From failed starters to 17th rounders without the typical pitcher physique, there are a lot more people who can pitch in relief than can, say, play third base without making infinitely many errors.

[21] Fair enough, but at the same time as that - again - where is it hurting the Yankees?  It’s a 1 year deal, he makes the team better, adds depth (there isn’t much left handed depth), isn’t blocking anything, and is very tradeable if necessary.  Now if he’s “worth” $3MM next year and they sign him to that same deal, I think you can argue that $3MM may be better spent somewhere else.  But they aren’t missing out on a DH or anything because of this deal.

FWIW, Granderson has accrued somwhere between 12 and 13 WAR since the trade with 1 year remaining on his contract, IPK, Coke and AJax have accrued 24-26 WAR. However Granderson also had the single best season of any of the players involved in the trade with his 2011.

[24] Mostly from AJax…he did better than ANYONE thought he would.  So did IPK for that matter.  Definitely that wasn’t Cashman’s best trade, but I think just about every GM in hindsight you could find trades that didn’t work as well as expected…

Bill James described the Yankee strategy of the eighties as a treadmill on which they were slowly losing ground. The consequence of trading the way Mike K describes, in order to try to win every year, is that you leach total future WAR from the system, forcing you to add it in the form of free agents. The free agents then lose production on the back end of their contracts, forcing you to trade prospects for reinforcements again. The Yankees have moved away from always only doing the now for later trade, but it’s still a structural problem. Someone mentioned on Fangraphs that the Shields/Myers trade might be the last of its kind, that it’s just becoming too obvious that no matter what your team’s situation is, you always want to be on the Myers side of that deal. If you take the Shields side, you’ll sometimes get the equivalent of drawing to an inside straight, but over time your system will bleed value.

[23] - Point taken, still, even this year I think $3M could go a long way with Scott Hariston. I don’t know who the Yankees will get to fill out the OF if they miss out on him but that might be a better way to spend some of that money this year.

[26] Yeah I think that ownership - given the payroll demands they are doing - will be more likely to allow Cashman to do trades that build more for the future instead of now.  Or in the same vein, don’t do a trade that sacrifices the future, for now.

I don’t think that’s quite what the FanGraphs people said.  Or at least not Cameron and Sullivan who I think did the most writing on it (and certainly I read on).  Specifically, it was that a team like KC wasn’t at the point they shoudl be making that kind of trade.  A team that’s in a window for competition and goes from borderline playoffs to sure thing (as sure thing as you can get) with Shields that trade maybe makes sense.  But the fact that KC both a) isn’t much more likely to make the playoffs now with Sheilds than they were w/o him and b) could have gained nearly as many wins by replacing Frency with Myers as trading Myers for Shields, made it a bad trade.

The Yankees needed a CF and traded a younger - potentially better - CF for one who was more likely to help in the near term.  I think if they had gotten say, Yadir Molina for Jackson and put Gardner in CF and played patchwork with LF, it would have been a better trade.

[27] Well, unless you are suggesting they DFA him - don’t think you are - they would still end up paying him like $2.8MM if they won in arb.  I don’t see it being much less, though I could be wrong.  I also don’t think if Logan’s salary is the holdup between signing Hairston or not, that they wouldn’t sign Hairston and then trade Logan (and I think his contract is tradeable).

If they had gone out and signed Logan as a FA I guess I would more agree with you, because then it is truly $3MM they could have spent elsewhere.  But since the contract was keeping him from going to arb, it’s maybe at most $300K or so more than they could have spent, so…

[26] I’m afraid haven’t been able to find the article: I think it was in piece by Cistulli in which, after discussing something else, he said, “and that’s why we’ll probably never see another Shields/Myers trade again.” It was something apart from Cameron’s repeated Euclidean proofs that the Royals weren’t a James Shields away from anything.

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