Monday, December 3, 2012

CBS Sports:Yankees in the mix for outfielder Nate Schierholtz

The Yankees are interested in adding outfielder Nate Schierholtz, who was non-tendered recently by the Phillies, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.

The 28-year-old outfielder split time between the Giants and Phillies last season, hitting .257/.321/.407 in 269 plate appearances. The Yankees will have competition, as nine teams called Schierholtz once he hit the market.

Schierholtz would be half of a platoon most likely since he hasn’t hit righties much over the last few seasons.

Split	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP (2010-2012)	284	690	625	169	36	8	18	65	13	10	55	105	.270	.334	.440	.774
vs LHP (2010-2012)	118	193	178	41	7	1	0	14	1	1	9	40	.230	.271	.281	.552

Regular readers of this blog should know that you can’t just assume that a player’s recent or career platoon splits are what they will do going forward.  We have a pair of pretty good examples in Paul O’Neill and for Curtis Granderson(at least for one season).  So you have to factor in everything a player’s done and then regress his platoon splits appropriately as discussed in this post at The Book blog.

Here’s how Schierholtz would project as a Yankee in CAIRO for 2013.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
80%	407	370	47	107	23	5	15	49	9	2	36	63	3	5	.289	.364	.496	.375	64	17
65%	373	339	40	93	19	3	12	41	7	3	30	62	3	4	.274	.341	.456	.348	51	8
Baseline	339	308	33	80	15	2	9	35	5	3	25	60	4	3	.260	.318	.415	.321	39	0
35%	305	277	27	68	12	1	7	29	3	4	20	58	5	2	.245	.295	.374	.293	29	-6
20%	271	247	22	57	9	1	5	23	2	4	16	54	5	1	.231	.272	.334	.266	20	-11

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

If you break that projection down into his regressed platoon splits it looks like this.

split	pa	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	so	hbp	gdp	avg	obp	slg	woba
vs. LHP	71	65	16	3	1	2	4	15	1	1	.244	.297	.391	.302
Vs. RHP	268	243	64	13	2	8	22	45	2	4	.264	.335	.422	.326
Overall	339	308	80	15	2	9	25	60	3	4	.260	.327	.415	.321

He’d essentially project as a league average hitter against RHP, which is below average for a RF.  You don’t necessarily need a better than average player at every position on the diamond, but CAIRO thinks he’s a worse option in RF than Chris Dickerson who they already have and won’t cost them anything.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
80%	407	353	65	101	24	4	12	40	24	2	55	94	4	5	.285	.397	.479	.389	69	22
65%	373	324	56	88	20	3	10	34	19	3	47	91	5	4	.270	.372	.439	.361	55	12
Baseline	339	294	48	75	16	2	7	28	16	4	40	88	6	3	.256	.348	.399	.333	43	4
35%	305	265	40	64	13	1	5	23	12	4	33	83	7	2	.241	.323	.359	.306	32	-3
20%	271	235	33	53	10	0	4	18	9	4	27	78	7	1	.226	.299	.319	.278	23	-8

split	pa	ab	h	2b	3b	hr	bb	so	hbp	gdp	avg	obp	slg	woba
vs. LHP	44	37	9	3	0	1	5	11	1	1	.237	.362	.369	.308
Vs. RHP	238	208	54	11	1	6	28	62	1	4	.259	.359	.404	.338
Overall	282	245	63	13	2	6	33	73	2	5	.256	.359	.399	.333

It’s certainly possible CAIRO is underrating Schierholtz and or overrating Dickerson.  And for whatever it’s worth Schierholtz’s defensive numbers in RF are pretty good, equivalent to about 5 runs above average per season in DRS and 9 runs per season in UZR.  Schierholtz is also two years younger than Dickerson.  But Dickerson is easier to type.

I guess I’d be okay with Shierholtz as long as the Yankees do what they need to do anyway and add a good righty bat that can backup all three OF positions.

 

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