The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Thursday, February 10, 2011

CAIRO v0.6 and Still Too Early 2011 MLB Projected Standings

I’ve updated the 2011 CAIRO projections to version 0.6 and have uploaded them to the site.  They can be downloaded at the link below:

Cairo_2011_v0.6.zip

I’ve basically just updated rosters again and fixed a few issues.  I’ve also added a projected standings page.

I probably will not do another update until about a week before the season starts, unless there’s some reason to.

Speaking of projected standings, it’s been about six weeks since I posted my extremely early projected standings for 2011 so here’s an update.

I suppose this is where I should tell you that it’s still too early to treat these as gospel and we still have position battles and rosters to finalize, as well as playing time allocation and injuries to deal with, but that doesn’t seem to prevent some people from taking them seriously and insulting my mother anyway, so I won’t.

I used the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts.com as of February 8, but I also included some playing time from the benches as well as some of the pitchers who aren’t necessarily expected to make their teams out of spring training but who will likely be needed at some point.

Date 2/8/2011
Iterations 10,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 96.2 65.8 831 687 45.6% 17.6% 63.2% 7.2 13 -57
Yankees 92.1 69.9 821 726 28.8% 19.4% 48.2% -2.9 -38 33
Rays 87.9 74.1 737 663 17.3% 14.6% 31.9% -8.1 -65 14
Blue Jays 77.2 84.8 709 738 4.2% 5.0% 9.2% -7.8 -46 10
Orioles 76.9 85.1 739 788 4.2% 4.8% 9.0% 10.9 126 3
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 84.3 77.7 718 704 36.1% 5.7% 41.8% -3.7 -25 -41
Twins 82.3 79.7 744 727 26.9% 5.0% 31.9% -11.7 -37 56
Tigers 81.9 80.1 714 697 27.7% 5.5% 33.2% 0.9 -37 -46
Indians 70.6 91.4 711 804 6.2% 1.4% 7.6% 1.6 65 52
Royals 66.2 95.8 658 806 3.1% 0.7% 3.8% -0.8 -18 -39
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 92.7 69.3 728 626 57.6% 6.6% 64.2% 2.7 -59 -61
Athletics 85.8 76.2 667 620 28.9% 8.8% 37.7% 4.8 4 -6
Angels 77.1 84.9 647 678 10.1% 3.6% 13.7% -2.9 -34 -24
Mariners 70.4 91.6 606 705 3.4% 1.3% 4.7% 9.4 93 7
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 93.7 68.3 735 617 48.4% 10.4% 58.8% -3.3 -37 -23
Braves 87.2 74.8 735 665 26.1% 10.3% 36.4% -3.8 -3 36
Mets 80.1 81.9 667 678 10.3% 6.0% 16.3% 1.1 11 26
Marlins 79.3 82.7 668 679 9.5% 5.3% 14.8% -0.7 -51 -38
Nationals 74.9 87.1 643 698 5.7% 3.3% 9.0% 5.9 -12 -44
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 87.2 74.8 746 689 31.8% 10.0% 41.8% -3.8 -44 4
Cardinals 86.6 75.4 744 689 31.0% 9.9% 40.9% 0.6 8 48
Brewers 86.6 75.4 746 688 26.5% 9.4% 35.9% 9.6 -4 -116
Cubs 75.8 86.2 722 768 7.3% 3.8% 11.1% 0.8 37 1
Astros 66.9 95.1 604 740 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% -9.1 -7 11
Pirates 66.6 95.4 663 796 1.9% 1.1% 3.0% 9.6 76 -70
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 86.9 75.1 698 649 32.1% 8.2% 40.2% -5.1 1 66
Rockies 83.4 78.6 758 736 23.3% 7.0% 30.2% 0.4 -12 19
Padres 83.1 78.9 648 638 21.6% 6.5% 28.1% -6.9 -17 57
Dodgers 82.2 79.8 673 665 19.7% 6.7% 26.4% 2.2 6 -27
Diamondbacks 69.5 92.5 672 775 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% 4.5 -41 -61


W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here’s a comparison of this set of projections compared to the last ones:

TM 28-Dec 28-Dec 28-Dec 28-Dec 9-Feb 9-Feb 9-Feb 9-Feb Diff Diff Diff Diff
W Div WC PL W Div WC PL W Div WC PL
Angels 78 15.5% 3.2% 18.7% 77 10.1% 3.6% 13.7% -1 -5.4% 0.4% -5.0%
Astros 66 1.1% 1.0% 2.1% 67 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1 0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
Athletics 82 26.1% 4.3% 30.4% 86 28.9% 8.8% 37.7% 4 2.8% 4.5% 7.3%
Blue Jays 74 2.6% 5.8% 8.4% 77 4.2% 5.0% 9.2% 3 1.6% -0.8% 0.8%
Braves 89 26.6% 13.3% 39.9% 87 26.1% 10.3% 36.4% -1 -0.5% -3.0% -3.5%
Brewers 87 27.9% 8.9% 36.7% 87 26.5% 9.4% 35.9% -1 -1.4% 0.5% -0.8%
Cardinals 90 35.0% 12.0% 47.0% 87 31.0% 9.9% 40.9% -4 -4.0% -2.1% -6.1%
Cubs 79 10.5% 6.3% 16.8% 76 7.3% 3.8% 11.1% -4 -3.2% -2.5% -5.7%
Diamondbacks 74 6.4% 1.9% 8.3% 70 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% -4 -3.1% -0.7% -3.8%
Dodgers 83 20.3% 7.2% 27.5% 82 19.7% 6.7% 26.4% -1 -0.6% -0.5% -1.1%
Giants 84 24.1% 6.6% 30.6% 87 32.1% 8.2% 40.2% 3 8.0% 1.6% 9.6%
Indians 74 8.2% 2.7% 10.8% 71 6.2% 1.4% 7.6% -3 -2.0% -1.3% -3.2%
Mariners 72 8.4% 2.5% 10.9% 70 3.4% 1.3% 4.7% -2 -5.0% -1.2% -6.2%
Marlins 77 8.7% 5.0% 13.7% 79 9.5% 5.3% 14.8% 2 0.8% 0.3% 1.1%
Mets 77 7.1% 4.5% 11.6% 80 10.3% 6.0% 16.3% 4 3.2% 1.5% 4.7%
Nationals 72 3.2% 2.0% 5.2% 75 5.7% 3.3% 9.0% 3 2.5% 1.3% 3.8%
Orioles 70 1.8% 2.9% 4.7% 77 4.2% 4.8% 9.0% 7 2.4% 1.9% 4.3%
Padres 81 17.7% 5.0% 22.6% 83 21.6% 6.5% 28.1% 2 3.9% 1.5% 5.5%
Phillies 96 54.5% 11.0% 65.5% 94 48.4% 10.4% 58.8% -2 -6.1% -0.6% -6.7%
Pirates 68 2.1% 1.2% 3.3% 67 1.9% 1.1% 3.0% -1 -0.2% -0.1% -0.3%
Rangers 89 50.1% 4.5% 54.6% 93 57.6% 6.6% 64.2% 4 7.5% 2.1% 9.6%
Rays 87 17.9% 18.7% 36.6% 88 17.3% 14.6% 31.9% 1 -0.6% -4.1% -4.7%
Red Sox 98 54.6% 15.6% 70.2% 96 45.6% 17.6% 63.2% -2 -9.0% 2.0% -7.0%
Reds 86 23.5% 8.2% 31.7% 87 31.8% 10.0% 41.8% 2 8.3% 1.8% 10.1%
Rockies 86 31.7% 5.9% 37.6% 83 23.3% 7.0% 30.2% -3 -8.4% 1.1% -7.4%
Royals 67 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% 66 3.1% 0.7% 3.8% -1 0.3% -0.4% -0.1%
Tigers 84 27.5% 4.6% 32.0% 82 27.7% 5.5% 33.2% -2 0.2% 0.9% 1.2%
Twins 86 33.3% 6.2% 39.5% 82 26.9% 5.0% 31.9% -3 -6.4% -1.2% -7.6%
White Sox 85 28.4% 6.2% 34.5% 84 36.1% 5.7% 41.8% 0 7.7% -0.5% 7.3%
Yankees 89 23.2% 21.7% 44.9% 92 28.8% 19.4% 48.2% 3 5.6% -2.3% 3.3%

The Diff columns are just the December 28 results subtraced from the February 9 results.  Positive means a team’s odds have improved, negative means they’ve decreased.

In the AL East, the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays and Yankees all improved, with Baltimore making the biggest gains.  The Red Sox still project as the best team in baseball, but the gap has shrunk a bit. 

Aside from the Rafael Soriano signing, the Yankees haven’t made any major moves, but by adding Andruw Jones, Freddy Garcia and Ronnie Belliard they’ve improved their depth.  Of course, it’s possible Belliard’s 2010 shows he’s at the end of the line and will not be very good, so if they are instead back to using Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez more frequently that may hurt them some.

CAIRO still likes the White Sox in the Central, with the Twins and Tigers nipping on their heels. 

The Rangers look like a strong favorite in the AL West, although if they trade Michael Young that may hurt their depth a bit.  I only gave Brandon Webb about 10 starts, so how he does could have an impact on them.

Oakland hasn’t made any major moves, but they have improved by about four wins in this set of projections, mostly by shoring up their bullpen a bit.  The Angels and Mariners don’t really look like contenders at this point.

In the National League, the Phillies still look like the best team.  The Braves look like a solid second place team in the East, with the Mets, Marlins and Nationals a bit worse and separated by maybe five games in total.  For the Mets I’ve assumed that Chris Young and Johan Santana will split the #1 spot in the rotation at 50% each, but I have no idea how likely that is.

The top of the NL Central has bunched up a bit, with the Reds now slight favorites, primarily due to adding Edgar Renteria and Fred Lewis.  Really though, there’s a three-way tie at the top, with only 0.6 wins separating Cincinnati, Milwaukee and St. Louis.  The Cubs appear to have a stranglehold on fourth place.  I think there are two other teams in the Central as well.

The Giants still look to be on top of the NL West, with the Rockies, Padres and Dodgers a few games behind them but very close to each other.  I don’t really have anything to say about the Diamondbacks, so insert your own commentary here if you wish.

Even though rosters are a bit more settled than they were six weeks ago, it’s still too early to read too much into these.  So take them with the appropriate amount of skepticism.

--Posted at 7:15 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Though people want to complain, on paper at this point the Yankees look like they are definitely a top-5 team in the majors.  Sure, a lot of uncertainty at several positions…just like a lot of the other teams near the top.  But really, this is about as good as you can expect a team to look before the season starts.  And, unlike in years past, the Yankees have some actual major-league talent in AAA (and lots more in AA) when/if some of the players with question marks falter.

This clearly shows the Orioles had the best off season in the division. 7 win improvement, and they spent a lot less money to do it. Sure wish our management was as sharp. Bird fans must be crowing now.

Sure wish our management was as sharp.

I’d say it’s a lot easier to add 7 wins to a 70-win team, than it is to a 90-win team.  I’d also say if O’s management had the ability to add 7 wins to a 90-win team, they wouldn’t be working for the O’s.

PS I’m not saying this page on the front-page, only as “Next Entry” on the Montero post.

I’d say it’s a lot easier to add 7 wins to a 70-win team, than it is to a 90-win team.

Yep.  The Mariners actually project to add a similar amount of wins as the Orioles, and it’s not like they had a tremendous offseason.  It’s just easier to be better when you were really bad, especially if some of that bad play was due to some misfortune.

PS I’m not saying this page on the front-page, only as “Next Entry” on the Montero post.

Yeah, it’s fixed now.

Your mother has a messy basement!

From the previous thread, I want to echo Mike’s comment in response to Mel’s inquiry about Liriano:

Less than what the Twins will ask for him?

Roidoworld:

Tom Pelissero of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities hears that the Twins are indeed discussing the possibility of trading Francisco Liriano.
This confirms a story by Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Pelissero writes that the Twins are in no rush to deal Liriano, who is under team control through 2012, but they would be willing to part with him if the right offer came along. Not surprisingly, he names the Yankees and Rangers as two possibilities. A deal makes some sense if the organization feels they wouldn’t be able to sign him to a long-term deal or if they simply aren’t willing to gamble on his health, but a trade would be a tough sell for Twins fans.

[7] I just don’t see the Twins asking for less than Montero and some other stuff.  And if Montero is out, you’re either going to need to include Gardner AND at least one killer-B, or mutliple killer-B’s AND a ton of other stuff.  There’s nothing that I’d be willing to give up that I think the Twins would also take.

Now, if someone on the Twins is deluded into thinking Nunez is a future All Star if just given the chance, then I’m all for it.

Montero is probably worth less to the Twins than any other team since they already have a decent catcher.  Unless they have plans to move Mauer eventually, they are probably better off looking at another area of need.  They are still committed to Morneau although they may have concerns about his health, so maybe Montero could be looked at with 1B in mind.

My guess is they’d target starting pitching prospects, and the Yankees do have a few of those.  They will probably also be looking for middle infielders. Not sure the Yankees can meet that request.

SG,

I hate being demanding but can you run these using the just released PECOTAs?  Or is that some sort of terms of use violation?

Thanks in advance if you can do it.

Montero is probably worth less to the Twins than any other team since they already have a decent catcher.

Yes, but I believe they need a right-handed DH.  Also as you mentioned Morneau’s health issues (IIRC he hasn’t started “baseball activities” yet).  So a righty-DH, sometime 1B, sometime C with his bat is valueable for the Twins for 2011.  And if the bat plays, then in 2012 and beyond he’s their full-time DH, backing up at 2 other positions.

Or put another way, based on past experience with the Twins’ GM, I don’t see them NOT asking for the Yankees’ most valuable trade-chip.  If nothing else so they can trade Montero at a later date for pitching/IF help.  I think in addition to Montero they’d ask for Nunez, and maybe Adams.  Plus 2nd tier pitchers (Phelps, Warren, etc).  If Montero was off the table I think they’d want Gardner (he would be an upgrade in CF or LF) plus a killer-B instead, or 2 killer-B’s, PLUS all the other stuff I already mentioned.

Yes, I do think the Twins will ask the Yankees for too much.  And then turn around and trade Liriano to the Mets for Ike Davis and cash.

Is the question what will the Twins ASK for Liriano or what would they ultimately take?

Two years of Liriano probably isn’t worth Montero straight up (is it?).  I could see giving them 2 lesser pieces (including killer Bs—although perhaps not Betances AND Banuelos).  I could also see Gardner plus Brackman, for example. 

Am I underestimating Liriano’s value?  CAIRO has him at 2.1 WAR this year.

If his prior dealings offer any insight, Smith will ask the Yankees for considerably more than he would an NL team, and that will likely prevent the completion of a trade.

Meanwhile Aceves is throwing with no restrictions. Why did Cashamn let him go? That’s a big mistake.

Just curious, how many wins approximately, would a completely replacement level team get?

[15] Depends on the system.  Different systems use different replacement levels.  I think SG uses something like 48 wins.  FanGraphs might be a little lower, BBRef a little higher, etc.  There is no “right” replacement level.  Though there are “wrong” ones.

[12] Well, they’re in no hurry, right?  They’re a playoff caliber team and likely will be next year, so keeping Liriano helps them win.  They can afford him (for now).  And he still may be willing to sign a reasonable contract with them.  There’s no reason at this point for them to take less than what they’re asking for.

It’s tough to value Liriano.  Like Joba, he’ll probably never get back to the phenom he was in 2006 (4.5 K/BB rate, ERA+ of 208).  However, last year was STILL worth about 4.5 wins, and he’s only going to be 27.  But last year was still the first year he’s thrown more than 140IP.  There are honest questions if his injuries are behind him, or he’s just a ticking time-bomb.  Plus, if last year was his peak, or if he’s got room to grow as he gets healthier?  There’s too many risks with Liriano for me to want to give a lot to get him.

E.g. Gardner…he’s the same age, cheaper, under control for longer, and quite possibly of similar value.  So straight up - purely from a value standpoint - you can make an argument the TWINS should be adding more to get Gardner.  Plus then that’s closing one hole and opening another for the Yankees.  Would I give Phelps and Romine?  Sure (doh! I gave what I would be willing.)  But not more than that, and I’m sure the Twins won’t take that little.

[14] Maybe, maybe not.  It was a risk sure, but when he DFA’d Aceves there was a good chance they were going to need the 40-man roster spot, and keeping a player you’re not sure will be ready to start the year is tough (pretty sure you can’t put a player on the 60-day DL yet).

Also, Ace has often been compared to Ramiro Mendoza.  Well, I remember when there was a lot of angst over Cashman letting Mendoza go to the Red Sox - and that worked out well for the Yankees.  Perhaps lightening will strike twice?

Here’s a link to an article abotu Liriano at It’s About the Money Stupid.  Links there too to PinstripedBible and RAB on the topic.

So…is there a press conference I’m missing?

I hate being demanding but can you run these using the just released PECOTAs?  Or is that some sort of terms of use violation?

Thanks in advance if you can do it.

I don’t subscribe to B Pro so I don’t have access to PECOTA.  I have an automated process to load other projections though, so I will eventually run them with whatever other projections I can get.

[17]  I dunno.  Liriano helps them win now, but part of his trade value is tied to the fact that he’s under control for 2 years.  If they wait til next offseason, for example, that’s really going to factor into the trade calculation. 

Moreover, given the guy’s injury history, it’s chancey to hold onto him indefinitely.

At the moment, he’s got 2 years left, he’s healthy, and he’s coming off his best season.  His trade value may never be higher.

I think your skepticism that a trade could be put together is justified simply because trades involving aces rarely happen ever.  However, it’s still interesting to ask, IF a trade for Liriano took place between the Twins and NYY, what would be a reasonable exchange?

Two questions.

What did the Mets do to add 4 wins since Dec 28?

Is Lastings Milledge really the only player without a team?

Just curious, how many wins approximately, would a completely replacement level team get?

Compared to average, figure about two wins subtracted from each position and starting pitching slot. So something like 81 wins minus 28 gives you 53 wins, then subtract a few more for the bullpen, maybe five or so.  So something in the area of 45 to 50.

What did the Mets do to add 4 wins since Dec 28?

01/03/11 - RHP Taylor Buchholz and LHP Chris Capuano signed to one-year deals
01/11/11 - LHP Taylor Tankersley agreed to minor league deal
01/14/11 - C Raul Chavez and OF Willie Harris signed to minor league deals
01/17/11 - RHP Chris Young agreed to one-year deal
01/20/11 - OF Scott Hairston signed to one-year deal

Is Lastings Milledge really the only player without a team?

He signed with the White Sox, maybe I missed that update.  There are still a lot of players unsigned but I haven’t moved them off their last teams for the most part.

[25]
Thanks.

Forgot about all of those pitchers who are better than the minor leaguers that you would have used in the earlier projections.

Thanks for the work on this.

My only issue is that the only “surprise team” is the White Sox. I wish predictive systems would not just repeat most of last year’s leaders.

My only issue is that the only “surprise team” is the White Sox. I wish predictive systems would not just repeat most of last year’s leaders.

Most of the time there is a surprise team or two.  Last year it was Cincinnati.  That there’s not necessarily one this year doesn’t mean “that predictive systems just repeat most of last year’s leaders”.  It just means that at this point in time this is how the teams stack up.  Last year has no bearing on this aside from how it affected the projections for the players on the teams.

Anyway, I’d say Oakland and San Diego look a bit better than I’d have expected, so they’d probably be my surprise teams right now.

How does CAIRO project Mubarak this year?

They should have a salary cap on how much he steals, say 10 billion, and then a luxury tax on everything over 10 billion.

Mubarak projects to steal $10 billion over a replacement level dictator by September, but that’s got a standard deviation of about $3.5 billion in either direction.  So his 80% SORD is $13.5 billion, and his 20% SORD is about $6.5 billion.

[29]
The CAIRO system is designed to project rate statistics, not playing time.  In Hosni’s case, playing time is the most crucial factor.

Boras via Heyman says Moubarak has several multi year offers he’s considering including a 5 year deal from Algeria and three years from Paraguay.

[34]
Its not very often that a “face of the franchise” player opts for free agency.

I just don’t see the Twins asking for less than Montero and some other stuff.  And if Montero is out, you’re either going to need to include Gardner AND at least one killer-B, or mutliple killer-B’s AND a ton of other stuff.  There’s nothing that I’d be willing to give up that I think the Twins would also take.

There have been a large number of good starters traded in the last year or so and Liriano is far from the best or most reliable or most healthy. I don’t see how these packages you are talking about are anything like the reality of the current trade market unless you are assuming a steep Yankees tax. That could be the case though. Trading your best starter to a team that has consistently smacked you around like a lil bitch for the last decade has to sting.

#1, the complaint isn’t that the Yanks are a poor team.  Rather, due to various moves and non-moves the last couple of years, they are not as good as they could be going into 2011. especially given the resources, etc.

it’s good when Boston’s the team that has seemingly washed-up starting pitchers competing for starting rotation spots, it’s bad when it is the Yankees, in other words.

#1, the complaint isn’t that the Yanks are a poor team

Of course not. Here are the Top 5 complaints:

1) Joba is a fat cow/loser
2) Cashman is an idiot/loser
3) Jeter is old/greedy/going to be a loser
4) Brett Garnder is too good and cheap to be a Yankee forever and is therefore a loser
5) AJ cannot pitch in Pinstripes and since he is still a Yankee is a loser

Honorable Mention: Jorge Posada, Flash Flaherty, A-Rod, The Moat. Better luck next year, fellas (and inanimate architectural features).

What did the Mets do to add 4 wins since Dec 28?

This brings up something I was pondering about projection systems generally. Do the team projections take into account the moves made by other teams they will play ? IOW if the Yankees make a trade/FA signing that adds 2 wins to the projection, are those balanced by the impact to the other teams they’ll play ? In other words, does it all zero-sum ? In which case the actual, non-snarky answer to such a question might be “nothing but let others in the division proceed with something stupid”. Does it ever work out that way ?

This brings up something I was pondering about projection systems generally. Do the team projections take into account the moves made by other teams they will play ?

They should, but I don’t know if/how they all do it.  For CAIRO, I actually play out the seasons in a simulator so they have to be zero sum.  This is why even though Boston’s team didn’t really change from the last run, they are now shown winning 2 fewer games, because their division got stronger.

The first thing you should check on any team projections is if the total wins and losses add up to a .500 record.  Rounding can skew that by a tiny amount, but if they aren’t close then you can probably ignore them.

I forget who the analyst was, might have been Gammons or Steve Phillips but someone added up all their projected W-L records heading into one season and they had the average team going 84-78 or something similar.

unless you are assuming a steep Yankees tax

Yes.  That and the fact that RIGHT NOW the Twins aren’t in any rush to trade Liriano.  Though BD is right that he’ll likely get less valuable as a trade chip, the Twins ARE still trying to win this year.  Plus of course as the year goes on some teams that might not be interested in Liriano now, will be later.  I just don’t think they are under pressure to trade him now, so they’ll ask the moon.  And from the Yankees, after Yanks agree to moon, Twins will ask to throw in the stars.

they had the average team going 84-78

I smell Kruk.

I smell Kruk.

I wouldn’t, if I were you.

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