The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Monday, January 28, 2013

CAIRO 2013 v0.3 and Still Too Early and Mostly Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

I figured it was about time for an update to CAIRO, so here it is.  The spreadsheet can be download via the following link:

Update: CAIRO v0.5 is now available

As far as what’s changed, not a ton aside from moving players to new teams but there are a couple of updates.
- Added Hiroyuki Nakajima and Ryu Hyun-jin
- Found major problems with Carlos Gonzalez’s projection (apparently there are about 50 Carlos Gonzalezs playing professional baseball) and corrected them
- Fixed some playing time issues with a few players

Things like wins/losses and saves haven’t been adjusted for team strength and expected roles so those will change as we get closer to the start of the season.  Other than that most changes should be limited to fixing any other errors I find or moving players to new teams.

Here’s how this update sees the projected standings as of this morning.  Rosters are current through all moves as of last night. 

Date 1/28/2013
Iterations 100000
American League
Blue Jays 91 71 809 720 31.0% 10.3% 9.8% 51.1%
Rays 88 74 709 641 24.8% 10.0% 9.2% 44.0%
Yankees 87 75 778 735 22.9% 9.3% 9.4% 41.6%
Red Sox 83 79 811 796 14.7% 6.7% 8.1% 29.4%
Orioles 76 86 726 782 6.5% 3.8% 4.6% 14.9%
Tigers 89 73 800 717 44.9% 6.1% 6.9% 58.0%
Royals 82 80 724 715 24.1% 6.2% 6.8% 37.0%
White Sox 78 84 731 770 16.4% 4.7% 5.6% 26.7%
Indians 74 88 703 761 10.2% 2.7% 4.1% 17.0%
Twins 67 95 695 830 4.4% 1.1% 2.2% 7.7%
Angels 93 69 759 636 43.2% 12.8% 9.0% 65.1%
Rangers 90 72 797 719 31.1% 13.0% 10.6% 54.7%
Athletics 86 76 720 679 22.4% 11.4% 10.3% 44.1%
Mariners 67 95 635 748 2.5% 1.4% 2.5% 6.3%
Astros 61 101 663 871 0.8% 0.6% 1.1% 2.5%
National League
Nationals 93 69 702 586 47.8% 10.3% 7.6% 65.7%
Braves 86 76 677 640 26.9% 10.1% 8.3% 45.3%
Phillies 81 81 661 671 15.8% 8.0% 7.9% 31.7%
Mets 72 90 661 728 5.6% 2.9% 4.3% 12.9%
Marlins 69 93 616 721 4.0% 1.7% 2.8% 8.4%
Reds 90 72 739 659 38.7% 8.4% 8.0% 55.0%
Cardinals 87 75 696 650 30.1% 8.8% 8.5% 47.4%
Brewers 79 83 708 736 13.1% 5.7% 6.5% 25.2%
Pirates 78 84 670 688 11.5% 5.3% 6.0% 22.8%
Cubs 73 89 641 706 6.6% 3.0% 3.8% 13.4%
Giants 89 73 668 602 30.3% 9.6% 8.5% 48.4%
Dodgers 88 74 681 611 29.0% 9.1% 8.7% 46.8%
Diamondbacks 85 77 702 663 21.8% 8.0% 8.3% 38.1%
Padres 80 82 661 662 13.9% 6.4% 7.0% 27.3%
Rockies 72 90 767 871 5.1% 2.7% 3.7% 11.5%

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

As the title says, this is still too early and mostly useless.  So view them in that way.

--Posted at 9:32 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)


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I wonder how Yankee management looks at their chances right now and how much they give a shit.  How many wins worse are we from this time last year?  Six or seven?  I find this projection to be rather discouraging, though I do hold out some hope they can make a meaningful move or two by the conclusion of ST.

Surprised to see the Royals project to be better than .500, and I would have expected Atlanta to be closer to the Nats.  Not surprised to see that the Nats are a beast of a team.

[0] As the title says, this is still too early and mostly useless.  So view them in that way.

Except for the Astros.  They are awful.

So is Seattle.

The Twins would like a word.

[1] As luck would have it, last year SG posted useless projections this day last year.  From there, Yankees have lost 5 wins.

For “Yankee management”, I’m sure Cashman cares a lot and wants to upgrade the team further.  Hank/Hal?  I think they want to win and want to be better.  IDK if they care more about winning than the bottom line like their Dad did…

Obviously, tons can happen between now and October.  Heck, little things like upgrading the bench/bullpen slightly could add a win or two.  Making Gardner the CF and Granderson the LF (pretty sure SG has them where they opened 2012) might add as much as a win.  As we’ve seen, the way the season ends up is usually based on the things that we DIDN’T expect happening, more so than the things we DID expect.

Yeah, this just flat out sucks. They had plenty of opportunities to improve the team on one-year contracts and they just chose not to. Avoiding multi-year deals I totally get. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but I get it. But avoiding one-year contracts, too? While making the team noticeably worse? That is bad news for Yankee fans.

Hopefully there is some stealth move still to come.

According to these projections,the Yankees miss the postseason by one game.  Is there a player or two that would make that up?

You have to look at the biggest holes in the lineup or pitching staff and try and fill them.  So catcher, maybe a lefty DH.  Maybe Pineda pitching some innings instead of Adam Warren (I gave Pineda 0 innings).

I’m thinking Travis Hafner for lefty DH maybe?

[6] Which one year deals did they miss out on that would have greatly improved the team?  Most of the FA signings who were of any significance I think were 2+ years.

Again, not saying they couldn’t have done more this off-season, but sometimes I think we get a bit too crazy with this idea that any player the Yankees want they could have, so not getting that player is an example of the Yankees not wanting them.

I’m thinking Travis Hafner for lefty DH maybe?

I think that would be a great idea.  IDK if they’re waiting for something on him.  Perhaps making sure that they have sufficient players who can actually play the field before committing to a DH only.  Or maybe Hafner’s price is too high.

A. J. Pierzynski would have been the perfect fit for a lineup losing a lot of power. My only concern with him was that he wasn’t going to be available on a one-year deal. And then he signed a one-year deal.

[11] THAT’S the one that you are going to use as proof that they aren’t interested in improving the team?  Here are Priezynski’s bWAR numbers since 2005 (age 28): 2.0, 1.8, 1, .6, 1.2, .7, .3, 2.6.  Which of these doesn’t look like the others?  It was also the first time he was above average offensively as a catcher since 2006.  Basically, yeah I’d be skeptical of a catcher coming off his best season (by far) in a decade, at age 35.  Honestly, I didn’t want them to sign AJ anyway, unless it was a bargain deal.  $7.5MM definitely doesn’t cut it for me.

[12] Throw in the fact that he’s a total a$$-hole and that sort of puts it over the top for me.

I think this season will be fun.  This team is going to have to play better than they are projected to in order to make the playoffs. I’m excited about seeing if they can do it, instead of the usual waiting around for 6 months to see if they’ll win 10 games in October.

The Yankees keep losing wins every time you rerun this.  Perhaps we shouldn’t run these anymore. I mean, I’m sure these didn’t even take into account A-Rod up coming 50 game suspension so I’m sure they will look even worse next time.

If AJ would have added 1 or 2 wins for $7.5 million then I would have favored the signing.  I recall the reports that he’s an ahole, but I haven’t heard any in recent years.  On a one-year deal, in a veteran clubhouse, I doubt he would have caused any serious disruption.

Actually I wished they had never had to reach the question of whether to sign Prznskznkski by re-upping Russell Martin.  I’d rather have Martin on a two-year deal than Ichiro!, that’s for sure. 

But I’m sure I’m working with imperfect information.  Not to mention a lunatic mind.

[13] I don’t think this season will be fun because the exciting players the Yankees have will not be ready yet. Instead we are going to see a bunch of old guys fill in spots while the Yankees try out any number of low/middling upside players from their pretty barren high minors.

Next year has far more fun potential as most of the exciting MiL players will be in AA or above, allowing them to make the jump to the MLB if merited/needed.

The 2013 team will not be a bad team, and they will most likely not be a very good team. They will, most likely be a boring team with some nice highlights.

Remember how boring the team was for large stretches of 2012? Get ready for more of the same.

[17] Dr. Dog is good. This offseason is not.

Regardless of your position or ideology, we can all agree to follow the Pavano model and remove the spleen from our debates.

If AJ would have added 1 or 2 wins for $7.5 million then I would have favored the signing.

2 wins?  Quite probably would have been interested.  1 win?  Probably not.  Especially since (in my view) he has more downside than upside given his age, past performance, etc.  I agree they should have signed Martin instead.  I think he could have caused some disruptions if he was used strictly as a platoon partner, personally.

[16] Well, I’ll be excited.  Last seasons for Pettitte and Mo.  See if Jeter can continue defying age.  See how ARod returns.  CC hopefully healthier and he can still amaze.  See if Hughes can take the next step.  Granderson could become 2nd Yankee - first since Ruth from 1926-1932 - to hit 40+ HR 3 straight seasons.  Gardner if fully healthy could be exciting.  Potentially Ichiro.  See if Cano improves yet again and potentially takes an MVP.  Teix if he can stay healthy could get back to 4 wins.

If you want younger players with some upside - remember that once upon a time guys like Cano, Gardner, Robertson, etc were, “any number of low/middling upside players” - we have Nova who if he can keep the BB/K rates but solve the HR problem could be exceptional.  Phelps could prove to be a #3 instead of a #4.  Maybe Nunez gets his throwing under control and becomes a legit SS.  Perhaps Romine stays healthy and shows his potential, or Murphey takes a leap at AAA and forces his way into the bigs by mid-season.  Mesa could prove to be something useful, even if it’s just a better 4th OF than we have most years.  Not to mention Pineda coming back, Marshall, Turley, or the possibility of some of the younger exciting players (Austin, Heathcott, to a lesser extent Flores) may enter the conversation in late August/September.

I mean, honestly, if you look at the 2013 team and think it’s going to be boring…well you’ve been spoiled by the 1995 and after years.  I would have KILLED to have a team like this from 1989-1992, and this would have competed nicely with 1987-1988.  Yes, I expect 2014 to be MORE exciting.  But yes, part of the excitement is the uncertaintity, and in a lot of ways seasons like 1995 (fight to the end to grab a playoff spot on the last day) can be more fun than 2000 (team barely showing up in September since they already clinched).

[16] I don’t think this season will be fun because the exciting players the Yankees have will not be ready yet. Instead we are going to see a bunch of old guys fill in spots

The New York Knicks would like a word with you.

[21] I agree that the pennant race might be exciting even if the team isn’t.  And even if they’re out of contention, there’s always beer and hot dogs and fresh cut grass and Monument Park and opposite field home runs during batting practice.  For those who can afford it

The Knicks are only exciting because they win. I don’t think their brand of basketball (take a lot of 3’s while not watching Melo hold the ball for 20 seconds) is exciting to watch at all. Also, their age is starting to catch up to them.

[21] This sounds like the special Olympics.

[24] Are you saying this because Sheed and Camby have broken foots, Kidd has lumbago and gout, and Kurt Thomas has cheeseburgeritis?

[21] The end of the season might be exciting when they are in the hunt for a play-off spot. But the majority of the season will be rather uninspiring. There is potential and there will be some decent story lines, but I suspect that (not so different from much of 2012) that I will not be going out of my way to catch as many games as possible.

[24] So, if the Yankees win they’ll be exciting, even if they are old?  Don’t forget that projections aren’t predictions. These projections show that the Yankees have a talent level basically the same as the Rays and slightly less than the Blue Jays. So, they figure to be in a pennant race until the end.  Is that really less exciting than years past, where the team rolls through the regular season, sparking emotion only when they fail to live up to standards by winning 6 out of every 10, and we waitto see what disappointment looms in the playoffs? I’m ready for something different.

Guys, have we complained enough about the Astros in the AL/all the interleague play?  My guess is no.

I’m looking forward to Phelps—against all rationality, I hope he turns out to be above average.

[28] I don’t think they will be that exciting because most of the players are pretty boring. Cano and Gardner are exciting, Nunez isn’t boring (in the bad way) Romine could be interesting and Grandy’s HRs are fun but the rest of the lineup… boring players. As for pitching CC is always awesome, Kuroda is fun, I’m never all that excited about Pettitte for some reason, Nova is intriguing, Robertson is nails and Mo is Mo, everyone else is just meh.

I’ve said repeatedly that the 2013 team is not a bad team, but I don’t think it’s a particularly exciting team. IDK, maybe I’m letting the idea of Ichiro and Shrek getting consistent ABs color my opinion too much.

Yanks ink Juan Rivera to a minor-league deal.  Sing loud the hosannas.

Can Javy III be far behind?

It’s the throw enough shit against the wall philosphy guiding our choice of righty outfielder this year.

To be fair, I don’t think anyone thought the Shockmaster™ would be exciting to watch and he probably had the best moments of anyone this year.

They’ll be good.  They’re not likely to be great, but Toronto’s got plenty of risk in terms of health with some of their most important players so we’ll just have to see how things play out.

Michael Pinheada is leaving the flat ground for the half mound.  And Nick Johnson is retiring from baseball and moving into a hospital in Florida.

“So, if the Yankees win they’ll be exciting, even if they are old?”

Yes. Is that even controversial? Perhaps I’m just a different type of fan (Mike K. will be along soon to call me spoiled), but baseball isn’t that interesting to me if the Yankees are losing. There are far more entertaining sports to watch, e.g. basketball and tennis. I’ll always root for NYY (thus not a fairweather fan!) but I’m with Snuggles, I can’t really see myself keeping up with a mediocre-to-decent team for six months.

Nick Johnson had not retired yet?

[36] de facto he retired in 2002; de jure he retired today.

In the grand tradition of Mike K., I would like to point out that the readiness of these projected standings is improving with each iteration, and they are partially useful.

[37] Let the HoF campaign begin.

[39] The most feared player to rarely play the game.

It seems that Cairo has also changed allegiances, to Canada, apparently.

[41]  It’s an exchange-rate thing.

Nick Johnson and Carl Pavano chosen for the Hunger Games part 4

[43] Are they edible?

[44]  Is spleen offal you can eat?

Also, you know what is stupid, I can’t buy foie gras in California any more.

Or monkey brains in NYC.

[45] la la foie gras la California la.

[35] Maybe I misunderstood you before. Someone said this team won’t be fun or exciting to watch because they’ll be old, so I pointed to the Knicks as a contrary example.  Clearly if the Yankees ‘win’ that will be exciting, even if they are old.

I guess I’m just hung up on what I seem to interpret as a general frustration that this team doesn’t project to win 95 games and the trickle down feeling that 2013 isn’t going to be as fun to watch as a result. I don’t understand that.

[48] I think the 2014 team will likely be worse performance wise, but a more fun team due to potential of the youth.

Maybe Pineda pitching some innings instead of Adam Warren (I gave Pineda 0 innings)

I’ll take the under.

Throw in the fact that he’s a total a$$-hole and that sort of puts it over the top for me.

We waived that rule for Shrek. That makes it officially dead, right ?

This team is going to have to play better than they are projected to in order to make the playoffs.

There’s only one way I can see this happening, and it’s going to take an intervention, abduction, and de-brainwashing. We’ll need SG to downgrade the underlying assumptions in CAIRO to make the Yankees look…worse.

And Juan Rivera joins the scrum.  What we lack in talent at RHB outfielder/dh we make up for kn depth.

I guess I’m just hung up on what I seem to interpret as a general frustration that this team doesn’t project to win 95 games and the trickle down feeling that 2013 isn’t going to be as fun to watch as a result. I don’t understand that.

I agree that stuff like “fun” is way too subjective. So I just want them to be as good as possible within whatever limits they’re stuck with. They currently project to be noticeably worse than last season and they had options to improve without violating their no-two year deal limits and they’ve chosen not to so far. That’s annoying.

[52]  Yeah, totally agree. 

I mean, we forget that in 1996 the Yankees won 86 games.  And in 2000 I think they won -17 games but the Red Sox were bad.  Those were pretty fun years…

Didn’t the Yankees win 92 games in 1996?

It is what is called anchoring effect in psychology. An 86 win season, coming in the wake of a 79 win season seems like heaven. The same 86 win season, if preceded by a 95 win season would seem hellish.

In any case, I think it would be pretty fun if the Yankees can find some combination of Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small circa 2005 from somewhere. Throw in a new avatar of Chien Ming Wang and new avatar of Robinson Cano and I am fully in.

[54]  You’re right, I didn’t even look it up because I was so convinced.

[27] IDK.  I didn’t watch as much last year.  Was it because they were boring or because my life has become so busy?  I probably won’t watch as much this year either; because they’re boring or because I’m getting married/honeymooning/trying to work OT to pay for it all?  I also guess what you find “exciting” is very subjective.  Is Jeter exciting or boring?  I think he’s both, and maybe you didn’t include him on the exciting list just b/c seeing him play for 17 years and all that…IDK man.

I guess, what needs to happen for the season to be exciting for you?  There should be a LOT of young (under 27) players getting a lot of playing time.  While no these aren’t top-50 prospect talents (Romine was closest, I think #86 one year), two of our regulars - and most exciting players if Gardner stays healthy enough to play great D and steal 40-50 bases - weren’t top-50 prospects either.  It obviously isn’t just winning, since last year they won 95 games and you said were boring.  So..I guess whatever. smile

Mike K. will be along soon to call me spoiled

Like month-old milk.  Definitely, winning is more exciting than losing.  And as [54] alludes, and 86 win team after being a losing team for a while - or think of how pysched KC fans will be if they win 82 games - is more exciting than winning 86 after 95.  What I’m upset at is some of the vitriol being directed at the Yankees for not going all out to upgrade to 90 wins.

In the grand tradition of Mike K

I’ve become a cliche downer

They currently project to be noticeably worse than last season and they had options to improve without violating their no-two year deal limits and they’ve chosen not to so far. That’s annoying.

I still don’t see it.  You’ve come up with one player (Priezynski) that could have been had on a 1-year deal.  And I think there are fair arguments that last year was a dead-cat bounce and he won’t be any better than what is on the team now; or only marginally better and certainly not worth $7MM+, or the headache he may bring.  But you’re almost treating it like they had a chance to sign 1972 Johnny Bench to the contract AJ got, but passed.

Again, I don’t think it’s been a perfect off-season, and there are some moves I think they should have made - or been more aggressive in making since I think they missed out by being too passive - and didn’t.  In particular, I think they should have been more aggressive and perhaps could have gotten Martin for 3/21, and I think they could have been aggressive in courting Melky and got him for maybe 2/17 and then not signed Ichiro.  But I don’t think your assertion that they could have improved by signing guys to 1 year deals and just chose not to is correct.

Mike K. is to fandom as j is to commenting, they’re just better than you at it and are going to remind you every chance they get.

[59] My comment in [57] was tongue in cheek you know.  Can’t tell if you’re joking…

I know you all are big fans, but yes, I know that at least some people here didn’t become fans until the 90’s, and have only experienced success.  And anything less than a dominant team who can withstand several injuries is a massive failure.  So I think some of us who dealt with the 80’s (and some who dealt with the late-60’s) can add perspective.  If my tone is belittling…well, that’s my bad.

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