The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v1.0 and Final Pre-season MLB Standings Projection

I’ve uploaded the final pre-season 2012 CAIRO projections and projected standings.  They can be downloaded here.

cairo_2012_v1.0.zip

Yeah, I know Opening Day was technically last week.  Sue me.

Here are the standings and of course, the pie charts.  I should be posting more projected standings from other systems later today, so I’ll save the disclaimers and explanations for after that’s all done.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 96 66 848 713 52.8% 19.6% 11.1% 83.5% 86 - 106
AL East BOS 91 71 857 751 23.7% 21.0% 16.1% 60.8% 81 - 101
AL East TAM 91 71 765 667 22.4% 25.7% 14.9% 63.0% 81 - 101
AL East TOR 79 83 771 793 0.8% 2.4% 3.1% 6.2% 69 - 89
AL East BAL 70 92 736 838 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 60 - 80
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 87 75 803 741 55.2% 1.3% 10.3% 66.8% 77 - 97
AL Central CLE 84 78 759 721 36.4% 2.4% 9.3% 48.0% 74 - 94
AL Central CHA 74 88 699 806 3.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.0% 64 - 84
AL Central KC 73 89 682 754 3.6% 0.2% 0.8% 4.6% 63 - 83
AL Central MIN 71 91 725 815 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% 61 - 81
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West TEX 93 69 809 685 54.2% 12.7% 17.3% 84.1% 83 - 103
AL West LAA 92 70 739 640 44.7% 14.3% 14.6% 73.6% 82 - 102
AL West OAK 74 88 685 753 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 1.7% 64 - 84
AL West SEA 73 89 669 742 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 63 - 83
AL WC1 93
AL WC2 90
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East PHI 91 71 690 610 51.0% 15.1% 9.0% 75.0% 81 - 101
NL East ATL 86 76 705 664 20.5% 16.4% 10.2% 47.1% 76 - 96
NL East WAS 85 77 669 632 17.7% 12.8% 9.7% 40.1% 75 - 95
NL East FLA 83 79 710 694 10.3% 8.6% 7.0% 25.9% 73 - 93
NL East NYN 74 88 665 737 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% 64 - 84
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central STL 89 73 728 654 47.2% 11.1% 9.4% 67.7% 79 - 99
NL Central MIL 86 76 695 646 29.2% 11.6% 11.8% 52.6% 76 - 96
NL Central CIN 85 77 707 670 22.7% 10.8% 11.2% 44.8% 75 - 95
NL Central PIT 71 91 653 743 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 1.9% 61 - 81
NL Central CHN 71 91 648 748 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 61 - 81
NL Central HOU 61 101 584 752 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51 - 71
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West SF 85 77 663 634 36.5% 5.2% 10.2% 51.9% 75 - 95
NL West ARI 84 78 692 674 33.9% 3.0% 9.2% 46.0% 74 - 94
NL West COL 82 80 755 750 21.2% 2.9% 6.6% 30.7% 72 - 92
NL West SD 76 86 635 674 4.1% 0.9% 1.6% 6.6% 66 - 86
NL West LAN 75 87 622 671 4.3% 0.3% 2.5% 7.1% 65 - 85
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 7:45 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Wow, the Mets and Cubs.

The Astros would kill to be the Mets or Cubs.

About as good as you can hope pre-season.

5 games better than anyone in the division, 3 games better than anyone in MLB.

True.  I’m just thinking about the salaries the Mets and Cubs are paying out to be so hopeless.

Edit: In response to [2]

Thought experiment.  Would Houston be better off, talent wise, disbanding and re-entering through an expansion draft?

If you didn’t penalize them in terms of where they drafted (i.e. if they’re the worst, they draft first), I think so.

I can’t help thinking you could put together a much better 40-man in an expansion draft.

Sorry, I’ve already read in the MSM media that Detroit is the best team in baseball.
And if we attribute only 20 wins to each of Boston’s aces, that guarantees them 100 wins, right?
Back to the ol’ drawing board, I guess!

Cleveland at 84 wins seems a tad high to me.  SG must have sprinkled some algorithm on them.

Last night I watched Phughes for the first time in ST.  His fastball was generally at 92-93 and had late life.  Which was encouraging.  He threw a couple devastating change ups.  But the curveball was a lollipop.  Overall I thought he looked good and could be a solid #3.

[8] I’m super excited about Hughes this year.  My fanboy guess is he’s starting Game 2 of the ALDS.

[6] Main stream media media?

[6] Facing Cabrera and Fielder back to back is going to suck, though.

[9] My fanboy guess is he’s starting Game 2 of the ALDS.

For the Tigers?

[12] Ha, ha.

I really hope Cleveland beats out Detroit this year.  Would love to see that stupid Fielder contract come up snake eyes.

[10] I saw that too while I was waiting on line at the ATM machine.

[10]
You aren’t aware of the main stream media media?

[14] Remember to never tell anyone your PIN number.

PIN is here to tell us not to use his PIN number amirite?

Any fool knows of the main stream media media.

Slow day so I am going to talk about how baseball for me starts this week after Easter.  We lost in 4 (5 game series) in the championship round to a team with a big lefty (he got the W in 2 of the 3 games.) Bought all new gear so if I stink this year, at least I’ll look good.

The Cole Hamels market just got REALLY interesting. 6 years/$127 million for Matt Cain. Yikes.

Now CC looks like an even better dude for not pushing the Yankees this offseason on his contract.

[18] I get a lot of streaming media streamed to me from the main stream media media.

It’s time to invoke Ja Rule for only he can help us make sense of all this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-ddYhXAZc

[20] Baseball is shortly going to look like basketball. 1 guy on the team making all the money, everyone else paid journeyman wages.

Bought all new gear so if I stink this year, at least I’ll look good.

And that’s what really matters.

[20] What’s crazier? The 6/127 for Cain or signing Votto through 2023 and his age 39 season? I have to take Votto.

[20] Are we really holding out for Hamels? No way can they make it under $189M in 2014 with Hamels at $23M per.

Could SG’s Algo-Rhythm be the dance fitness craze that topples Zumba off its lofty perch?

Maybe I’m naive, or stupid, or not paying attention, or dead, or drunk, but I’m surprised to see the Yankees project as the best team in baseball and the clear favorite in the AL East.  Not that I’m complaining.  Er…wait a minute.  I am complaining.

Who are all these bitchez who want to do Zumba anyway?  I bet they’d change their tune to SG’s Algo-Rhythm, which doubles as a contraceptive, if they knew what they were missing.

[25] Craziest is signing Arod through his age 42 season.

[26] RAB ran some numbers a while ago.  Hamels and under $189M is possible.  It would definitely mean one of Swisher/Granderson - potentially both - are gone.  And Martin isn’t the catcher either.  But it’s possible.  However, it would require things like Romine/Murphey/Sanchez to take a step forward to becoming the everyday catcher, which with Romine’s back problems look less likely…

Why do we need Hamels?

My comments regarding Hamels were not meant in reference to the Yankees, as I, too, imagine that they are out of the hunt. I bring them up just to note that, well, the market for Hamels just got REALLY interesting.

[31] Don’t know yet.  Hopefully of course everything - or at least a couple of things - go right with the young pitchers.  If Pineda recovers and shows he’s a #2, and 2 of Hughes, Nova, and any of the AAA starters show they’re #3 or better, no, they won’t put in a serious bid on Hamels.  If everything goes wrong - Pineda’s shoulder requires surgery, Nova regresses, Hughes bombs, Banuelos doesn’t show anything, etc - then maybe they’ll go outside the organization.  And Hamels makes the most sense…if they can figure out the dollars.

I’m betting enough things go right that they don’t do more than due-diligence on Hamels…

[33] If they need Hamels enough to pay him his market rate, they’re probably effed anyway.

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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