The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

I’ve uploaded the latest version of the 2012 MLB CAIRO projections. They can be downloaded here.

The only changes from version 0.4 were moving players who were signed/traded to their new teams.  I think this will probably be the last release until right before Opening Day unless I find any issues.

I figured since I’ve updated again I’d run another set of projected standings so here is what they look like.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East NYA 97 65 844 692 54.3% 22.5% 8.0% 84.8%
AL East TAM 92 70 772 660 23.2% 27.4% 14.1% 64.8%
AL East BOS 92 70 862 745 22.1% 27.0% 15.3% 64.4%
AL East TOR 78 84 758 795 0.4% 1.2% 2.6% 4.1%
AL East BAL 70 92 734 847 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL Central DET 88 74 814 741 60.7% 1.6% 12.7% 75.0%
AL Central CLE 84 78 763 729 32.1% 0.8% 9.5% 42.4%
AL Central CHA 74 88 705 805 3.5% 0.2% 1.0% 4.7%
AL Central KC 74 88 687 762 3.3% 0.0% 0.8% 4.1%
AL Central MIN 67 95 720 861 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL West TEX 92 70 812 695 51.2% 8.6% 17.0% 76.8%
AL West LAA 91 71 741 653 47.0% 9.9% 16.6% 73.5%
AL West OAK 76 86 685 735 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 2.9%
AL West SEA 74 88 673 729 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4%
AL WC1 94
AL WC2 91
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East PHI 92 70 701 605 60.8% 12.4% 9.1% 82.2%
NL East WAS 86 76 676 625 18.6% 18.2% 9.1% 45.8%
NL East ATL 85 77 700 676 13.2% 12.5% 11.0% 36.7%
NL East FLA 82 80 708 699 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 22.3%
NL East NYN 75 87 670 733 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 3.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL Central STL 90 72 737 654 47.8% 12.4% 10.3% 70.5%
NL Central CIN 87 75 715 665 27.3% 11.6% 12.1% 51.0%
NL Central MIL 86 76 696 645 24.6% 12.3% 11.7% 48.6%
NL Central CHN 71 91 650 745 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
NL Central PIT 68 94 649 764 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4%
NL Central HOU 60 102 584 773 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL West SF 85 77 663 630 38.1% 3.1% 8.4% 49.5%
NL West ARI 84 78 659 634 33.5% 3.6% 8.9% 46.1%
NL West COL 81 81 761 759 18.3% 3.0% 6.6% 27.9%
NL West SD 76 86 633 668 5.2% 0.8% 2.2% 8.2%
NL West LAN 75 87 621 669 4.9% 0.7% 1.8% 7.3%
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 88

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel.  Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

I am a bit surprised that Washington now projects better than Atlanta, even if it’s just a one game edge.  The only other major differences from this and the Marcel version is St. Louis at the top of the NL Central and San Francisco and Arizona above Colorado, both of which make sense to me.

Anyway, it’s still early, this is still not that useful, etc.,

--Posted at 9:58 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)


Page 1 of 1 pages:

97 wins. Wow, you’ve really applied yourself this time.

Edit: And it is certainly amuzing to see Showalter start the season already being mathematically eliminated from the Division. Tee Hee.

They’ve got a 0.1% chance.

Wow, the NL really sucks this year.

Wow, the NL really sucks this year.

It’s not just a this year thing.  The AL’s won something close to 55% of all interleague games since 2008, and I think it goes back further than that.

[4] - You are right.  I looked back to last February’s projection thread and the NL doesn’t look much different.  It’s just the AL looks a lot better at the top.  Still, the difference between the top teams in the AL and NL this year is huge.

[2] Division is 0.0%. WC is 0.1%. Nyah.

I would be surprised if the NL Central winner ended up with 90 wins this season.

[7] If Oswalt is still a 2-3 WAR player, the Reds should find a way to sign him.

By the way, how crazy is it that we are a week away from pitchers and catchers and it still hasn’t been decided if there will be 1 or 2 wild cards this year?

[9] I’ll bet there are a lot of behind-the-scenes discussions between mlb and the union about it right now.

Yadier Molina is in the best shape of his life:

“Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Yadier Molina looks ‘buff’ in spring camp.”

Nice.  This is why I visit RLYW.  Well, this and to see what Mel Hall is up to these days.  And the restaurant reviews.  Go Yankees.

Mel Hall is eligible for parole in 2031.  In the meantime he’ll be pressing those m*therf*cking license plates.  He’s a license-plate pressing m*therf*cker too, baby.

Dave Cameron is bullish on our acquisitions of Pinata, Non Campos Mentis and Toyota, ranking them the 6th and 7th best deals of the offseason:

#7 – Yankees Acquire Michael Pineda and Jose Campos for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi

While giving up Montero and Noesi represents a real cost to the franchise, the Yankees acquired the best young starter to change teams this winter, and they did it without putting a serious dent in their farm system. Getting five years of team control over Pineda gave them the flexibility to spend money upgrading other parts of their roster, and since Montero was likely to be a DH in New York, the downgrade from losing him to picking up a veteran to platoon with Andruw Jones isn’t all that significant. The Yankees got a lot better in a hurry, and while it cost them their best trade chip in the process, they made out better than other teams who had to pay higher prices to upgrade their rotations this winter.

#6 -Yankees Sign Hiroki Kuroda for 1/$10M

Remember how acquiring Pineda left the Yankees room to upgrade elsewhere? Meet elsewhere. Kuroda isn’t a spring chicken anymore, but his combination of strikes and ground balls have made him one of the game’s better starting pitchers since arriving in the U.S. With the rotation depth that they have, they don’t need to get 35 starts from Kuorda, so they can afford to deal with some nagging injuries or missed starts from time to time. Having another quality starter who can pound the zone and get hitters out from both sides of the plate will greatly increase their odds of going deep in the playoffs, and on a one year commitment, it’s hard to go wrong with a pitcher of this quality.

[14] - Crap.  There goes this season.

[2] Division is 0.0%. WC is 0.1%. Nyah.

It’s pretty bad when you misread your own charts…

[16] The solution is to change your charts.

I’m looking forward to seeing Washington play Milwaukee in a tie-breaker game for the privilege of playing Cincinnati in the wild card game for the right to play St. Louis or Philadelphia in the NLDS.

Mel’s son Bill Hall inks a minor-league contract with the Yankees.  Not only did he ink the contract, he signed it!

In retired player news: Curt Schilling’s video game released today, and it actually looks pretty good, granted some other guys like R.A. Salvatore and Todd McFarlane were involved too.

[19] Minor league contracts are $600,000?

It must be nice to be a friend of Kevin Long.

Hall only gets the $600K if he makes the major league team.

[20] What’s the button sequence for shooting ketchup from your fingertips like spiderman ?

Also, is there an Elf jump move ?

[23] There’s not even an Elven Race, instead you can choose to be a Pedroiaian.

But seriously, it’s been getting solid, but not spectacular reviews.


Bill James told Curt that single player is the new market inefficiency?

I still have no idea how Houston is going to win 60 games.

[20] Can you get a magic sock?

I am also bullish on this Kuroda signing.  One year is an excellent contract, and I love his attitude.  Now we will see if he and Zombie-Godzilla can be friends.

By what multiple of 5 wins does signing Bill Hall improve the team?

[28] - Zero.  He improves the team 0x5 wins.

But it’s wonderful to see the perpetuation of the Hall tradition on the Yankees.

[31]  The monosyllabic nominative Hall tradition.

Some perspective on giving Bill Hall a minor league contract and a plane ticket to Tampa:

Last season the Yankees brought in a couple of formerly productive major league players who didn’t look like they could play any more and couldn’t get much more than an NRI with any big league club.  They gave them low risk deals and let them show whether they had anything left.  They got a lot out of Bartolo Colon, Andruw Jones and Freddy Garcia, a little out of Eric Chavez and pretty much nothing out of Mark Prior.

The success rate on these reclamation projects was extremely high last year.  Have the Yankees discovered some sort of market inefficiency or were they just really lucky?

Randy Winn was inefficient and the Yankees discovered him.  Nick “Hospital” Johnson was bedridden, brittle, jaundiced and consumptive, and the Yankees discovered him too.

[33]  What those players had in common was that they were all really good players at one time.  So maybe the lesson is that former AS-caliber players, even though they may be considered washed up and therefore have no market value, give you a better chance of significant production than borderline major leaguers who aren’t washed up, but who have never really had success in the majors.

[33] These might be a case where scouting with one’s own eyes rather than the computer in SG’s basement is called for.

[34 -36]
With all of this wisdom, we can avoid the next Josh Phelps.

former AS-caliber players, even though they may be considered washed up and therefore have no market value, give you a better chance of significant production than borderline major leaguers who aren’t washed up

How does this explain AS caliber players who are not considered washed up, but actually are and don’t know it ? #ajburnett

With all of this wisdom, we can avoid the next Josh Phelps

But we’re still suckers for middle relievers wanting 8 figure deals.

I see that TB has picked up 3 wins over the previous projection from a month ago while Bos has lost 1.7 - is that in part just limited statistics?  I don’t recall either team doing anything significant beyond seeing NYY get better by 4 wins.

Oh, I see you ran the earlier ones with Marcel, that seems like a sufficient systematic right there.

Oh, I see you ran the earlier ones with Marcel, that seems like a sufficient systematic right there.

I think the Marcel set may have been run before the Ray signed Carlos Pena, but I can check.  Otherwise, yeah I’d assume it’s just overall differences in the projections.


By the way, if you’re bored you can check the end of the Gardner thread for a possible simulation study.

Oh yeah - I keep expecting Toronto to improve, but this would be a step backwards.

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