The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

CAIRO 2012 v0.4

I’m releasing the latest version of the 2012 CAIRO projections today, version 0.4.  They can be downloaded at the following link:

CAIRO 2012 v0.4 (Excel 97-2003 format)

What’s changed?

- Moved players to new teams and moved all unsigned players into a free agent pool
- Added projections for Yoennis Céspedes,  Wei-Yin Chen, Trevor Bauer and Hisahi Iwakuma.
- Added starter projections for Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, Aroldis Chapman, Kris Medlen and Chris Sale.
- Added wOBA platoon splits for hitters who’ve played in the majors. You can substitute whatever wOBA projection you want and it will re-calculate them.
- There were a few bugs in my pitching projections which have been corrected.  RA/ERA are more in line with what they should be based on the peripherals.  I’ve also fixed a problem with the way pitcher WAR was being calculated.
- And of course, no new version of CAIRO can be released without taking the Marcels and changing the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better, so that was done as well.  The Yankees should now project to win about 140 games.

--Posted at 2:34 pm by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

CAIRO is not a big fan of Betances or Banuelos after the 2011 season, on the other hand, it likes Warren.

Brad Meyers projects to be at pretty solid as a starter. I don’t know that much about him right now. Is he a rotation possibility?

Also, how many innings would Hughes have to pitch to be more valuable than AJ at their current projection rates?

Yeah, CAIRO loves Meyers.  He’s got great command, but I’m not sure he has enough stuff to make it as a starter.

Hughes projects about four runs better per 100 innings than Burnett.  100 innings of Hughes projects as 1.3 WAR vs. Burnett projecting at 0.9 WAR per 100.

[2] That’s kind of what I figured.

A possible experiment: if you were to replace Banuelos’ 2011 control numbers with somethnig approaching his career or 2010 numbers, how much would that swing his projection?

Also, given that we know stuff is super important to succeeding at the MLB level, and that there is a correlation between velocity and success, do you think it would be possible to build in a modifier that would alter MLEs based on divergence from average MLB velocity?

Obviously, this would be pretty flawed as it would only look at FB velocity. But there’s not really a way to accurately determine the quality of non-fastball pitches until we pitch-f/x is more widespread and we learn more from it. It seems like it might be a worthwhile venture.

Other things that jump out. Darvish projects to be the 5th most valuable pitcher in baseball. Obviously the projections for Japanese players are pretty hard to do givin the small amount of data available, but DAMN. I don’t think I’d be shocked to see him hit his projection but I’d be a bit surprised. I think he’s probably going to settle into the still elite 4 WAR range.

I’m extremely skeptical that Bard will be anywhere close to his projection as the 20th best pitcher in baseball ahead of a number of very good pitchers.

I’m also surprised to see Chris Sale projected so highly.

A possible experiment: if you were to replace Banuelos’ 2011 control numbers with somethnig approaching his career or 2010 numbers, how much would that swing his projection?

I’m not home to do this now but I can look at it a bit later.

do you think it would be possible to build in a modifier that would alter MLEs based on divergence from average MLB velocity?

It might be, but not until we have good minor league velocity numbers in place, which as far as I know we don’t.

I don’t think I’d be shocked to see him hit his projection but I’d be a bit surprised. I think he’s probably going to settle into the still elite 4 WAR range.

I’m extremely skeptical that Bard will be anywhere close to his projection as the 20th best pitcher in baseball ahead of a number of very good pitchers.

I’m also surprised to see Chris Sale projected so highly.

Yeah, I am not confident in the projections for any of the pitchers from Japan or the reliever->starter conversions.  We don’t know that any of them will translate the way past pitchers who’ve made similar transitions have.  In the case of Darvish I guess I’d say that Texas was willing to pay $50M plus whatever his contract might be on the assumption that he’s going to be worth it.  They almost certainly could have kept C.J. Wilson for the same total outlay they may end up spending on Darvish, so they must like his upside.

There are a few things to remember for any of Aceves/Bard/Sale et. al. 

1) They may not have the arsenal to make a successful transition to the rotation.  I think Aceves has enough different pitches to do it.  I’m not sure about Bard.

2) Stamina on a per game basis is an issue.  Pitchers probably have to be more efficient as starters and that may not play to the strengths of some of these guys.

3) Does losing a few ticks of velocity affect them more than it might affect a pitcher who’s less reliant on velocity?

4) How many innings can you expect them to hold up for over a full season

Anyway, CAIRO’s not designed to answer these questions.  It’s just designed to assume that the pitchers will translate the way others have.  We won’t know the answer to any of these until they actually happen.  I’m sure there were a lot of people skeptical about C.J. Wilson moving from reliever to starter, or Derek Lowe, but those worked out.

[7] My overall impression from this iteration is that it is too optimistic on the BP > starter conversion. I’m shocked to learn that this is what history tells us.

I think Aceves and Sale can adapt to being starters well enough. They’ve been starters for most of their baseball careers and have started as recently as 2011 and 2010 respectively.

Bard on the otherhand hasn’t started a game since a TERRIBLE 2007 season in the low minors. I’m sure he’s progressed since then, but he’s never started more than 22 games in a season.

not until we have good minor league velocity numbers in place, which as far as I know we don’t.

A growing number of upper minors parks are getting PitchFX. We may not be that far away from having very accurate data for high level MiL pitchers.

I’m shocked to learn that this is what history tells us.

I think you have to consider the fact that the players that teams are willing to do this with are selected precisely because teams think they can make the conversion.  If a team doesn’t think that a pitcher can do it, they won’t attempt it.  So if the conversion happens, it’s successful more often than you’d expect.

Anyway, don’t just take my word for it.  Read this post.

[9] Yeah, after thinking about it some, I came to that conclusion as well.

So why the hell isn’t Joba starting? And should Robertson as a starter be seriously considered?

As far as I can tell, the only good thing that could come out of the Soriano signing would be that he and Robertson start the season dominating, which allows the Yankees to try to rehab Joba as a starter since the BP is fine.

SG, I have some doubts on the BP-starter thing, how do you get the adjustments? I have no idea why, but these results looked very odd.

Is your data on reliever->starter conversion taken from pitchers that underwent this conversion, or from the general population of pitchers that played in both capacities. I have the impression that more pitchers do the starter to BP move than the other way around, and that this is an easier bet to not go completely wrong, so the data there must not be all the same. I don´t think it is reasonable to expect the transition to be simetric, as if a starter starts goes to the Bp, his K/9 gets multiplied by x. If you get a reliever that becomes a starter, than his K/9 shouldn´t necessarily be divided by x.

Also, do pitchers that played more innings in both capacities have a greater weight than someone that say, pitched 600 innings as a starter an 50 innings as a reliever? These things can lead to some selection biases, where you give more importance to pitchers that were able to do the transition than the complete failures.

So why the hell isn’t Joba starting?

I believe the answer you are looking for is discussed extensively here.

Edit: Also, anyone who’s bored with the lack of Yankee news, go ahead and tune into Oxygen and watch Fever Pitch.

I have no idea why, but these results looked very odd.

Can you be a bit more specific?  Odd how?  Too optimistic, too pessimistic?

Also, do pitchers that played more innings in both capacities have a
greater weight than someone that say, pitched 600 innings as a starter an 50 innings as a reliever? These things can lead to some selection biases, where you give more importance to pitchers that were able to do the transition than the complete failures.

Again, I’ll recommend this thread and the data it links to.

13 Fever Pitch is about soccer isn’t it? Didya ever see Game 6 with Michael Keaton? It revolved around Sawx loss.

I’m so effen happy this site is up and about again. Mo bless us all.

only 198 days till vacation

Rumors are swirling that ownership met with Boras about E-Jax. I bet they sign him to a 5 year, 80M contract, and that SG retires from baseball fandom for health reasons.

[18] Multiple sources indicate the Yankees are extending Soriano at 3/39m.

AJ projects to be our 2nd best pitcher?  Should be fun.  Hopefully Nova, Hughes, and Garcia beat their innings projections while maintaining their rates.  Just looking at the projections for the pitching staff for both BOS and NYY it’s hard to see how the Yankees finish within a game of TWN.

Also, I’m gong to make a bold prediction and say Lackey don’t meet his projection.

[18] Here’s the story from the NY Post.  Not a big fan of ownership being involved; but hopefully this is part of a good-cop, bad-cop scheme or something.  I’m starting to warm to the idea of Jackson on a 2 year deal, even if they overpay a little per-year.  Again, as long as AJ is the one to go (“go” meaning anywhere but the rotation).

SG, what do you have AJ’s WAR as the last 4 years?  BBRef has 2.9, 2.8, -.5, and 1.1.  I believe your version of WAR should be closer to that than fWAR, or at least the method used.  So I can’t see how CAIRO would predict a bounceback to 2.2 (if I’m reading it right), unless your version has a lower replacement-level.  1 WAR seems more realistic…

  I believe your version of WAR should be closer to that than fWAR, or at least the method used.  So I can’t see how CAIRO would predict a bounceback to 2.2 (if I’m reading it right), unless your version has a lower replacement-level.  1 WAR seems more realistic…

The problem is that A.J.‘s peripherals have been better than his RA over the last two years.  So when he gets projected, he looks better than he actually has been.  His WAR is still based off of his RA, but that RA is more in line with his peripherals than his actual RA over the last two years. 

Check out his FIP, xFIP and SIERA on his Fangraphs page.

I’d definitely bet the under on that 2.2 WAR, but the system is designed to project everyone and there are going to always be a few head scratchers.

I think his 35% forecast will be more in-line with realistic expectations.

[22] Yeah I knew his FIP and xFIP were pretty good.  But even using the FanGraphs numbers his WAR the last couple of years has been 1.4 and 1.5.  The two prior years were 5.5 and 3.5, but…I guess I still expected him to be worse.  FIP of around 4.8 the past couple of years doesn’t screen “average” to me (12 and 14% below average by FG).  I guess 2008 and 2009 are helping more than I would have thought.

Other than his HR/FB that was really bad last year, I wonder if there is anything else that can explain his under-performing his mediocre FIP by so much?  Think his WP could impact his ERA that much?  Seems plausible.  Also, are HBP included in the BB numbers for FIP?  If not, he hit a lot of batters (in 2010 at least).

Think his WP could impact his ERA that much?  Seems plausible.

Definitely.  An extra base is worth about 0.25 runs.  So take his 25 wild pitches last year and add .25 runs for each runner that advanced.  I’m sure he had some that were with multiple runners on base, but even just 25 times .25 is the difference between an ERA of 5.15 and 4.85.

Also, are HBP included in the BB numbers for FIP?

 

They should be.  I always include them in mine, and I can’t imagine why Fangraphs wouldn’t.

They should be.  I always include them in mine, and I can’t imagine why Fangraphs wouldn’t.

Probably is then.  Thanks.

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