Mitchell is a year older than Betances, and projects to be slightly better. Overrating one or underrating the other?

Overrating one or underrating the other?

I’d say underrating Betances.

Stats/projections don’t know about tools.  Betances has better stuff and more upside, even if Mitchell’s been slightly more effective in the minors.  Mitchell might be slightly more effective right now, but if you were going to take one or the other over the next six years I think you take Betances without question.

I’d take Betances over Mitchell for now too. Mitchell has average stuff at best and OK command/control. Betances has consistently shown great stuff and has had periods of averagish control.

There’s a reason why Mitchell is rarely mentioned among the Noesi, Warren, Phelps crowd.

You don’t happen to do BIP percentages do you?

Also, how stable are swinging strike percentages from year to year?

You don’t happen to do BIP percentages do you?

For minor leaguers?  I have it through 2010 from the data that was published by minor league splits but that’s gone away so I don’t have it for 2011.

Also, how stable are swinging strike percentages from year to year?

Never looked at it, but my guess is not very.  A pitcher adds a pitch, or loses a tick off his fastball, or tweaks his mechanics a bit, and it can change.  I mean look at pre-slider Nova vs. post-slider Nova.  He was a completely different pitcher.

[5] BIP projections. I’m still working on SNuGGLe, want to see how 2012 looks.

[6] I’m guessing it’s a little heavy on Hughes starts. I won’t use the word “optimistic” because that’s a loaded term.

Speaking of loaded, would AJ’s stuff be hurt or helped by having more chicken grease on his fingers from between innings ?

[7] SNuGGLe has Hughes as one of the worst pitchers in 2011. I need to take the time to plug in 2010 and 2009 to see how it works out compared to fWAR and bWAR

[8] There are a couple of iterations of SNuGGLe, I have him at 178 out of 203, 182 of 203, 183 of 203 and 184 of 203. So, he was in the bottom 10% of starting pitchers in 2011.

I ran the numbers on any pitcher who had more than 40 IP starting. And a few others that were interesting like Strasburg, who was obviously the most dominant pitcher in baseball on a rate basis.

[9] I’m too shy to ask SG. How does Venditte project in SNuGGLe ?

[10] I’d have to plug him in, but it doesn’t project. Also, it doesn’t work for relievers yet (I think, I haven’t tried plugging one in for a while).

Give me a few minutes to grab the numbers.

[11] So there are a few stats I use that aren’t available for him like swinging strike rate and XBH, so I just put those to average. If Venditte had put up his numbers in the ML SNuGGLe likes him as a bit above average.

Given that he struck out over 23% of batters faced (well above ML average) he probably induced a significantly higher swinging strike rate, additionally his HR/9 rate was also significantly lower than average and his hit rate a bit lower as well, he probably also had a below average XBH rate. Those combined would probably move him from a bit above average to well above average.

His GB% is super low, which doesn’t help him, but considering he’s doing this at AA primarily with deception, I’m not too optimistic for him to contribute at anything more than a ML average level.

Why isn’t Pujols on this list? What I have seen from him this WS so far, he looks like he has already earned his Pinstripes(TM).

Have a fun vacation, SG!

My latest LA Times Sports Legends Revealed details why Maury Wills was not even offered a $5 contract from Topps. Check it out here.

Also, did I post last week’s piece? It was about how Dizzy Dean came out of retirement six years after his last game to prove that he could pitch better than the pitchers on the staff of the team he was doing the radio broadcast for. You can check that one out here.

[15] Interesting histories.  I enjoyed learning Newhouser resigned over the Astros not drafting Jeter.

I do want to put a word in for the lowly full stop over the exciting exclam.  I used one of the latter in a poem at the beginning of my career and have regretted it ever since.

Awesome work as always SG.

I got my DVD’s the other day BTW - thx.

One thing I saw - Sabathia is entering his age 31 season, not his age 32 season. Does this matter for the projections?

They probably need someone who can play 3B and outhit/outglove Eduardo Nunez for at least 40 games. 

Wilson Betemit is a FA and would be nice, though he can probably get a starting job somewhere else. Cashman may be hand shy about another reunion tour, although Betemit is obviously much lower profile.

A healthy Chavez is really ideal, except you can never count on him to be healthy.

I was very impressed with Brandon Lairds defense. I was not impressed with his offense. Hopefully that’s just a rookie breaking into the big leagues.

Outside the box idea: Russell Martin playing some 3B while Montero catches and Rodriguez DH’s?

I hope to return with the news that the Yankees have re-signed CC and won the posting for Yu Darvish, but we’ll see what happens.

I read the other day that Darvish probably won’t be posted until December.  This is b/c the league he’s currently in runs through November.  So we’ll have to wait a while on Darvish.  So sorry, you won’t get that wish.  CC though hopefully in the next few days.

One thing I saw - Sabathia is entering his age 31 season, not his age 32 season. Does this matter for the projections?

I believe SG uses birth-year, as opposed to baseball age.  So anyone who turns 32 in 2012 counts as 32.  Personally I’m not a fan of that.  But I also don’t know if there is anything necessarily wrong with it. So..

I was very impressed with Brandon Lairds defense. I was not impressed with his offense. Hopefully that’s just a rookie breaking into the big leagues.

For his ML time I wouldn’t read anything into that.  25 PA split up irregularly.  In the minors looks like the biggest thing that went wrong in AAA was his BB% halved.  Some have speculated that this indicates he can’t handle the pitching at a higher level.  I’m betting single-season fluke.  Next year will tell.  I like the idea of Laird with the big club; he can handle defense at 1B, 3B, RF, and LF.  Upside is that last year was a down year and he gets back to 2010 in AA levels of play.  Downside is he’s Clay Bellinger, and they need to upgrade at the deadline.

[3] If they had to pick one to start the year with the Yankees, I’d take Mitchell.  He has nothing to learn at AAA.  Also, he’s the perfect “safe” pick.  You’re not going to get much more than average out of him, but probably not much less, either.  Later on in the season, I think Betances will have passed Mitchell on the depth chart.  But that’s just my opinion; I’m a fan of getting a player some experience on each level, but I don’t think that’s been proven as the best way or anything.

In regards to a certain overseas import… the question was raised would you sign up for a AAA player who put up his numbers and the more I think about it I’m not sure I agree with the answer.  Yes he would probably be the #1 pitching prospect and of course you would want that, but would you pay close to $100M for that?  I don’t think I would.  How far would that money go elsewhere?  Even if you are just spending it on Latin players.

From the last post…Wilson projects as the 7th best pitcher in baseball for next year.  I think better than any of the 2012/2013 FA class right?  I can’t see Darvish projecting as better than the 7th best pitcher in baseball.  Also Wilson is a lefty with good GB rates which should play well in DNYS.  I don’t see how they can’t target him.  There are contracts that are too rich of course, but…

I’m starting to come around to the idea of both Darvish and Wilson on the team.  But that’s also based on the Yankees doing the right thing to start the year, and moving AJ to the bullpen.  I don’t think now is the time to move Hughes to the pen.  Maybe he isn’t a #1/#2 type like we hoped.  But #3 still seems very possible, and that’s more valuable than all but the best closers, so…

[22] Cole. Hamels. But aside from him, yeah Wilson would be the best.

FWIW, the various versions of SnuGGLe have Wilson betwen 16 and 33 of staring pitchers in baseball.

Seems to me the last time we thought we were choosing between two top pitching FA it was “CC or AJ - where should we put all that money ?” and went out and got both. I don’t see why that can’t (or shouldn’t) happen again.

[24] and for the past 3 years we’ve been wondering why the hell they spent so much money of AJ “fucking” Burnett.

[25] So the moral of the story is, stick with the lefty?

[26] I thought it was juts don’t sign AJ Burnett, but that works too.

Thanks a lot for these, SG.

Matt Holliday got baserunning lessons from Posada. Getting picked off third base with the bases loaded with one out in the sixth inning of a tie game in the WORLD SERIES is embarrassing as all get out.

It is only magnified when the batter at the plate later walks.

And then the Rangers hit two home runs the next inning as they take a 3-run lead (and counting, I suppose, as there are currently 2 outs).

Thanks for putting these out, SG.

Quick question: does CAIRO no longer project pitcher wins?

the question was raised would you sign up for a AAA player who put up his numbers and the more I think about it I’m not sure I agree with the answer.  Yes he would probably be the #1 pitching prospect and of course you would want that, but would you pay close to $100M for that?  I don’t think I would.

But the AAA point wasn’t about the money.  It was simply about what you’d think of (or how you’d project) a pitcher Darvish’s age who had put up that line at AAA.  It rebuts the “all Japanese pitchers have been busts” attitude nicely simply by noting that none of the other Japanese imports have performed as well as Darvish has.  Thinking he’s probably going to be really good but perhaps not the best use of that kind of scratch is very different than thinking he’s going to be Kei Igawa.

I’ll double-check the ages and add pitcher wins in the next iteration of CAIRO, I just wanted to get something out before I went away.