The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

CAIRO 2012 v0.1

I’m heading on vacation for about three weeks, and will probably not be online at all, so I’m releasing my 2012 CAIRO v0.1 now, even though they still need a bit of work.  If you have any players you want projected that aren’t in here or see anything that looks off let me know in this thread and I’ll check it when I get back.  In the meantime Jonathan will keep you covered on the major happenings in Yankee-land.  I hope to return with the news that the Yankees have re-signed CC and won the posting for Yu Darvish, but we’ll see what happens.

Here are some of the key Yankees’ projections.

Last First Age Pos PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO avg obp slg wOBA BR WAR
Cano Robinson 30 2B 676 620 97 188 42 4 25 100 5 3 42 84 .303 .352 .504 .352 95 4.1
Granderson Curtis 31 CF 644 560 103 147 24 7 32 86 16 6 73 142 .263 .351 .502 .350 92 4.0
Teixeira Mark 32 1B 692 594 98 156 34 1 33 109 3 1 81 113 .263 .359 .493 .352 98 2.7
Rodriguez Alex 37 3B 459 398 65 109 21 1 19 78 6 2 53 82 .273 .363 .474 .351 63 2.6
Montero Jesus 23 C 380 348 42 93 19 1 17 49 1 1 27 69 .267 .322 .470 .326 48 2.2
Martin Russell 29 C 511 443 60 112 19 0 13 54 9 3 59 81 .253 .347 .383 .319 56 2.2
Swisher Nick 32 RF 626 533 84 138 31 1 24 82 2 2 80 129 .259 .356 .455 .341 81 2.2
Jeter Derek 38 SS 581 519 82 149 22 1 8 56 16 5 46 83 .286 .345 .384 .317 64 2.1
Gardner Brett 29 LF 484 418 74 109 16 6 6 38 35 8 53 82 .262 .347 .371 .315 56 1.0
Romine Austin 24 C 346 321 37 78 15 1 8 37 3 2 22 62 .242 .294 .365 .282 31 0.8
Maxwell Justin 29 CF 267 233 33 51 11 1 9 26 10 3 31 79 .220 .315 .397 .303 29 0.8
Laird Brandon 25 3B 392 364 42 90 18 1 13 50 2 1 22 72 .247 .292 .407 .291 39 0.8
Nunez Eduardo 25 3B 281 256 34 67 14 1 5 28 13 4 20 35 .262 .315 .392 .299 30 0.7
Jones Andruw 35 RF 315 271 38 61 13 1 14 41 4 1 37 76 .224 .320 .431 .313 36 0.7
Cervelli Francisco 26 C 185 164 20 43 7 1 3 22 2 1 15 32 .264 .328 .373 .303 18 0.6
Posada Jorge 41 DH 420 368 44 94 20 1 16 55 2 1 46 87 .255 .340 .442 .329 51 0.6
Molina Gustavo 30 C 131 121 12 29 6 0 3 14 1 0 7 25 .240 .285 .376 .278 12 0.3
Bernier Doug 32 SS 346 310 34 71 15 2 4 29 5 2 28 76 .227 .291 .324 .267 27 0.2
Pena Ramiro 27 SS 201 183 23 44 7 1 3 18 4 1 13 35 .240 .290 .340 .272 17 0.2
Curtis Colin 27 LF 231 209 26 51 11 1 6 26 3 1 19 44 .244 .312 .391 .299 24 0.2
Dickerson Chris 30 LF 188 165 23 40 8 2 3 15 7 2 19 46 .243 .321 .369 .298 19 0.2
Chavez Eric 35 3B 149 136 15 33 7 0 3 17 1 0 11 31 .243 .298 .364 .282 14 0.1
Golson Greg 27 CF 216 198 23 47 7 2 4 17 6 2 13 51 .235 .285 .355 .273 19 0.1
Russo Kevin 28 2B 384 350 41 83 15 2 5 30 7 3 27 73 .236 .295 .329 .272 31 0.0

Last First Age Role G GS IP H HR BB IBB SO ERA FIP RAR WAR
Sabathia CC 32 SP 33 33 227 218 19 64 4 201 3.25 3.23 64 6.4
Nova Ivan 25 SP 30 29 168 176 19 67 2 104 4.48 4.52 23 2.3
Rivera Mariano 43 RP 65 0 65 50 4 12 2 59 2.21 2.71 23 2.3
Burnett A.J. 36 SP 32 32 190 198 26 79 2 164 4.88 4.52 19 1.9
Colon Bartolo 39 SP 23 22 134 145 18 35 3 103 4.16 4.07 18 1.8
Robertson David 27 RP 63 0 62 50 4 31 5 78 2.70 2.84 18 1.8
Garcia Freddy 37 SP 18 17 102 112 12 30 3 64 4.28 4.28 18 1.8
Hughes Phil 26 SP 22 16 95 97 12 32 1 74 4.72 4.26 13 1.3
Soriano Rafael 33 RP 46 0 45 37 5 16 2 43 3.57 3.64 9 0.9
Chamberlain Joba 27 RP 47 5 69 68 7 26 1 64 4.04 3.72 8 0.8
Warren Adam 25 SP 28 28 147 173 18 57 0 85 5.28 4.72 7 0.7
Wade Cory 29 RP 37 0 43 43 6 11 1 30 3.86 4.31 6 0.6
Feliciano Pedro 36 RP 64 0 48 52 4 20 4 40 4.09 3.83 6 0.6
Logan Boone 28 RP 56 0 43 45 4 17 3 41 3.82 3.71 6 0.6
Ayala Luis 34 RP 42 0 46 48 5 17 2 31 3.99 4.40 5 0.5
Phelps David 26 SP 28 27 152 185 23 50 0 88 5.44 4.88 4 0.4
Prior Mark 32 SP 13 10 47 52 6 17 1 33 4.91 4.44 4 0.4
Valdes Raul 35 RP 30 3 47 51 6 16 1 40 4.72 4.08 3 0.3
Marte Damaso 37 RP 43 0 36 32 4 16 2 30 4.68 4.36 3 0.3
Farnham Jeffrey 25 RP 35 0 37 36 4 19 2 30 4.53 4.51 3 0.3
Flannery Ryan 27 RP 58 0 70 79 7 26 1 42 4.91 4.43 2 0.2
Mitre Sergio 31 RP 31 2 51 52 6 17 1 28 4.55 4.58 1 0.1
Laffey Aaron 27 RP 30 5 54 65 6 24 1 29 4.85 4.77 1 0.1
Norton Tim 29 RP 39 0 45 47 7 18 1 40 4.98 4.71 1 0.1
Noesi Hector 25 RP 31 10 79 94 12 26 2 53 5.44 4.80 -3 -0.3
Whelan Kevin 28 RP 36 0 39 41 5 28 0 32 5.70 5.30 -3 -0.3
Mitchell D. J. 25 SP 32 30 171 205 22 86 0 92 5.81 5.26 -3 -0.3
Schmidt Josh 30 RP 60 1 75 81 9 46 1 57 5.48 5.06 -3 -0.3
Venditte Pat 27 RP 61 0 82 94 12 35 1 58 5.55 4.96 -4 -0.4
Isabel George 23 RP 41 0 42 45 7 29 1 33 6.03 5.80 -5 -0.5
Reyes Yobanny 24 RP 45 0 48 53 7 32 1 35 5.93 5.60 -5 -0.5
DeLuca Evan 21 SP 19 19 92 105 14 53 1 62 6.07 5.48 -5 -0.5
Proctor Scott 36 RP 34 0 36 42 7 21 2 28 6.38 5.92 -5 -0.5
Banuelos Manny 21 SP 26 26 126 147 19 72 1 88 6.01 5.43 -5 -0.5
Betances Dellin 24 SP 16 16 73 82 12 47 0 55 6.29 5.75 -5 -0.5
Stoneburner Graham 25 SP 22 21 111 137 19 45 0 64 6.10 5.48 -6 -0.6
Kontos George 27 RP 30 5 56 65 11 27 0 39 6.03 5.64 -6 -0.6

WAR for position players does NOT include defense yet.

You can download the full spreadsheet here.  I still need to add catcher defense and zone rating/total zone to the other fielders, and playing times are likely to be somewhat off.  I need to double-check my MLEs since I usually find a mistake or two so don’t get too hung up on the minor leaguers’ projections just yet.

If I was to build a preliminary depth chart for the 2012 Yankees right now using the players currently under contract, it’d look something like this.

Player Pos PA BR Player Role IP R
Jeter, Derek SS 580 64 Sabathia, CC SP1 220 87
Granderson, Curtis CF 640 91 Nova, Ivan SP2 200 109
Cano, Robinson 2B 670 95 Hughes, Phil SP3 175 94
Rodriguez, Alex 3B 459 63 Burnett, A.J. SP4 185 107
Teixeira, Mark 1B 675 95 Noesi, Hector SP5 140 91
Swisher, Nick RF 625 81 Betances, Dellin SP6 50 38
Montero, Jesus DH 550 69 Banuelos, Manny SP7 50 36
Martin, Russell C 500 55 Brackman, Andrew SP8 0 0
Gardner, Brett LF 550 63 Rivera, Mariano CL 60 16
Nunez, Eduardo IF 340 36 Robertson, David SU 80 26
Cervelli, Francisco C 250 25 Soriano, Rafael SU 65 27
Pena, Ramiro IF 50 4 Logan, Boone MR 60 29
Dickerson, Chris OF 300 31 Wade, Cory MR 70 33
Golson, Greg OF 50 4 Chamberlain, Joba MR 60 30
Laird, Brandon IF 50 5 Laffey, Aaron LR 25 15
Russo, Kevin UT 25 2 Warren, Adam LR 0 0
Romine, Austin C 0 0 Phelps, David LR 0 0
Total 6314 784 Total 1440 737

That’s about an 86 win team, before considering defense.  If we assume the 2012 Yankees would be about the same as the 2011 Yankees defensively (around +20) then you’re closer to an 88 win team.  It’s not impossible to think some of the young pitchers will be better than CAIRO projects, but the offense looks like it could use a bit more oomph, particularly if we assume we’re only going to get about 450 PA of Alex Rodriguez.  They probably need someone who can play 3B and outhit/outglove Eduardo Nunez for at least 40 games. 

As far as the pitching staff, the Yankees probably should at least consider bringing Freddy Garcia and/or Bartolo Colon back.  Garcia projects better than everyone but CC in the rotation, so I’d like to see the Yankees at least offer him arbitration.  If he goes elsewhere, they should get a supplemental first round pick.  If he can’t find another team he comes back on a one-year deal, which would be great.  150 innings of Garcia instead of Noesi as a starter makes the Yankees about two wins better.

So the Yankees have some work to do this offseason, IMO.

--Posted at 6:07 pm by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Mitchell is a year older than Betances, and projects to be slightly better. Overrating one or underrating the other?

Overrating one or underrating the other?

I’d say underrating Betances.

Stats/projections don’t know about tools.  Betances has better stuff and more upside, even if Mitchell’s been slightly more effective in the minors.  Mitchell might be slightly more effective right now, but if you were going to take one or the other over the next six years I think you take Betances without question.

I’d take Betances over Mitchell for now too. Mitchell has average stuff at best and OK command/control. Betances has consistently shown great stuff and has had periods of averagish control.

There’s a reason why Mitchell is rarely mentioned among the Noesi, Warren, Phelps crowd.

You don’t happen to do BIP percentages do you?

Also, how stable are swinging strike percentages from year to year?

You don’t happen to do BIP percentages do you?

For minor leaguers?  I have it through 2010 from the data that was published by minor league splits but that’s gone away so I don’t have it for 2011.

Also, how stable are swinging strike percentages from year to year?

Never looked at it, but my guess is not very.  A pitcher adds a pitch, or loses a tick off his fastball, or tweaks his mechanics a bit, and it can change.  I mean look at pre-slider Nova vs. post-slider Nova.  He was a completely different pitcher.

[5] BIP projections. I’m still working on SNuGGLe, want to see how 2012 looks.

[6] I’m guessing it’s a little heavy on Hughes starts. I won’t use the word “optimistic” because that’s a loaded term.

Speaking of loaded, would AJ’s stuff be hurt or helped by having more chicken grease on his fingers from between innings ?

[7] SNuGGLe has Hughes as one of the worst pitchers in 2011. I need to take the time to plug in 2010 and 2009 to see how it works out compared to fWAR and bWAR

[8] There are a couple of iterations of SNuGGLe, I have him at 178 out of 203, 182 of 203, 183 of 203 and 184 of 203. So, he was in the bottom 10% of starting pitchers in 2011.

I ran the numbers on any pitcher who had more than 40 IP starting. And a few others that were interesting like Strasburg, who was obviously the most dominant pitcher in baseball on a rate basis.

[9] I’m too shy to ask SG. How does Venditte project in SNuGGLe ?

[10] I’d have to plug him in, but it doesn’t project. Also, it doesn’t work for relievers yet (I think, I haven’t tried plugging one in for a while).

Give me a few minutes to grab the numbers.

[11] So there are a few stats I use that aren’t available for him like swinging strike rate and XBH, so I just put those to average. If Venditte had put up his numbers in the ML SNuGGLe likes him as a bit above average.

Given that he struck out over 23% of batters faced (well above ML average) he probably induced a significantly higher swinging strike rate, additionally his HR/9 rate was also significantly lower than average and his hit rate a bit lower as well, he probably also had a below average XBH rate. Those combined would probably move him from a bit above average to well above average.

His GB% is super low, which doesn’t help him, but considering he’s doing this at AA primarily with deception, I’m not too optimistic for him to contribute at anything more than a ML average level.

Why isn’t Pujols on this list? What I have seen from him this WS so far, he looks like he has already earned his Pinstripes(TM).

Have a fun vacation, SG!

My latest LA Times Sports Legends Revealed details why Maury Wills was not even offered a $5 contract from Topps. Check it out here.

Also, did I post last week’s piece? It was about how Dizzy Dean came out of retirement six years after his last game to prove that he could pitch better than the pitchers on the staff of the team he was doing the radio broadcast for. You can check that one out here.

[15] Interesting histories.  I enjoyed learning Newhouser resigned over the Astros not drafting Jeter.

I do want to put a word in for the lowly full stop over the exciting exclam.  I used one of the latter in a poem at the beginning of my career and have regretted it ever since.

Awesome work as always SG.

I got my DVD’s the other day BTW - thx.

One thing I saw - Sabathia is entering his age 31 season, not his age 32 season. Does this matter for the projections?

They probably need someone who can play 3B and outhit/outglove Eduardo Nunez for at least 40 games. 

Wilson Betemit is a FA and would be nice, though he can probably get a starting job somewhere else. Cashman may be hand shy about another reunion tour, although Betemit is obviously much lower profile.

A healthy Chavez is really ideal, except you can never count on him to be healthy.

I was very impressed with Brandon Lairds defense. I was not impressed with his offense. Hopefully that’s just a rookie breaking into the big leagues.

Outside the box idea: Russell Martin playing some 3B while Montero catches and Rodriguez DH’s?

I hope to return with the news that the Yankees have re-signed CC and won the posting for Yu Darvish, but we’ll see what happens.

I read the other day that Darvish probably won’t be posted until December.  This is b/c the league he’s currently in runs through November.  So we’ll have to wait a while on Darvish.  So sorry, you won’t get that wish.  CC though hopefully in the next few days.

One thing I saw - Sabathia is entering his age 31 season, not his age 32 season. Does this matter for the projections?

I believe SG uses birth-year, as opposed to baseball age.  So anyone who turns 32 in 2012 counts as 32.  Personally I’m not a fan of that.  But I also don’t know if there is anything necessarily wrong with it. So..

I was very impressed with Brandon Lairds defense. I was not impressed with his offense. Hopefully that’s just a rookie breaking into the big leagues.

For his ML time I wouldn’t read anything into that.  25 PA split up irregularly.  In the minors looks like the biggest thing that went wrong in AAA was his BB% halved.  Some have speculated that this indicates he can’t handle the pitching at a higher level.  I’m betting single-season fluke.  Next year will tell.  I like the idea of Laird with the big club; he can handle defense at 1B, 3B, RF, and LF.  Upside is that last year was a down year and he gets back to 2010 in AA levels of play.  Downside is he’s Clay Bellinger, and they need to upgrade at the deadline.

[3] If they had to pick one to start the year with the Yankees, I’d take Mitchell.  He has nothing to learn at AAA.  Also, he’s the perfect “safe” pick.  You’re not going to get much more than average out of him, but probably not much less, either.  Later on in the season, I think Betances will have passed Mitchell on the depth chart.  But that’s just my opinion; I’m a fan of getting a player some experience on each level, but I don’t think that’s been proven as the best way or anything.

In regards to a certain overseas import… the question was raised would you sign up for a AAA player who put up his numbers and the more I think about it I’m not sure I agree with the answer.  Yes he would probably be the #1 pitching prospect and of course you would want that, but would you pay close to $100M for that?  I don’t think I would.  How far would that money go elsewhere?  Even if you are just spending it on Latin players.

From the last post…Wilson projects as the 7th best pitcher in baseball for next year.  I think better than any of the 2012/2013 FA class right?  I can’t see Darvish projecting as better than the 7th best pitcher in baseball.  Also Wilson is a lefty with good GB rates which should play well in DNYS.  I don’t see how they can’t target him.  There are contracts that are too rich of course, but…

I’m starting to come around to the idea of both Darvish and Wilson on the team.  But that’s also based on the Yankees doing the right thing to start the year, and moving AJ to the bullpen.  I don’t think now is the time to move Hughes to the pen.  Maybe he isn’t a #1/#2 type like we hoped.  But #3 still seems very possible, and that’s more valuable than all but the best closers, so…

[22] Cole. Hamels. But aside from him, yeah Wilson would be the best.

FWIW, the various versions of SnuGGLe have Wilson betwen 16 and 33 of staring pitchers in baseball.

Seems to me the last time we thought we were choosing between two top pitching FA it was “CC or AJ - where should we put all that money ?” and went out and got both. I don’t see why that can’t (or shouldn’t) happen again.

[24] and for the past 3 years we’ve been wondering why the hell they spent so much money of AJ “fucking” Burnett.

[25] So the moral of the story is, stick with the lefty? wink

[26] I thought it was juts don’t sign AJ Burnett, but that works too.

Thanks a lot for these, SG.

Matt Holliday got baserunning lessons from Posada. Getting picked off third base with the bases loaded with one out in the sixth inning of a tie game in the WORLD SERIES is embarrassing as all get out.

It is only magnified when the batter at the plate later walks.

And then the Rangers hit two home runs the next inning as they take a 3-run lead (and counting, I suppose, as there are currently 2 outs).

Thanks for putting these out, SG.

Quick question: does CAIRO no longer project pitcher wins?

the question was raised would you sign up for a AAA player who put up his numbers and the more I think about it I’m not sure I agree with the answer.  Yes he would probably be the #1 pitching prospect and of course you would want that, but would you pay close to $100M for that?  I don’t think I would.

But the AAA point wasn’t about the money.  It was simply about what you’d think of (or how you’d project) a pitcher Darvish’s age who had put up that line at AAA.  It rebuts the “all Japanese pitchers have been busts” attitude nicely simply by noting that none of the other Japanese imports have performed as well as Darvish has.  Thinking he’s probably going to be really good but perhaps not the best use of that kind of scratch is very different than thinking he’s going to be Kei Igawa.

I’ll double-check the ages and add pitcher wins in the next iteration of CAIRO, I just wanted to get something out before I went away.

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