Thursday, September 2, 2010
Are the 2010 Yankees Better Than the 2009 Yankees?
Today’s win against Oakland was the Yankees 134th game of the season. They now sit at 84-50, one game ahead of Tampa Bay in the loss column for the AL East division lead.
The Yankees have scored 726 runs this year and allowed 545. That works out to a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .633, compared to their actual winning percentage of .627. Their Pythagenpat record of 85-49 is one game better than their actual record.
After 134 games in 2009, the Yankees were 86-48.
They had scored 773 runs and allowed 627 runs. That works out to a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .601, compared to their actual winning percentage of .642. So their Pythagenpat record of 81-53 was about five games worse than their actual record. Of course, that could just be the Wang/Claggett factor.
Here’s how the two teams compare on a per-game basis through 134 games.
| Year | Gms | RS/G | RA/G | AL Avg |
| 2009 | 134 | 5.77 | 4.68 | 4.82 |
| 2010 | 134 | 5.42 | 4.07 | 4.46 |
RS/G: Runs scored per game
RA/G: Runs allowed per game
We shouldn’t really do a direct comparison here because there’s a fairly significant difference in the run environments of the 2009 and 2010 American League. The average AL team scored and allowed 4.82 runs per game last season, compared to 4.46 so far in 2010. So here’s a comparison of the 2009 and 2010 Yankees through 134 games relative to their respective run environments.
| Year | Gms | RS/G | RA/G | AL Avg |
| 2009 | 134 | 1.20 | 0.97 | 1.00 |
| 2010 | 134 | 1.21 | 0.91 | 1.00 |
What this shows is the ratio of Yankees RS/G and RA/G relative to league average.
So after 134 games in 2009, the Yankees were scoring about 20% better than league average and were allowing runs at a rate of about 3% better than average.
In 2010, the Yankee offense despite scoring fewer runs per game this season have actually been 21% better than league average. But the real difference so far is that the Yankee run prevention has been 9% better than league average.
So if you look at Pythagenpat and runs scored/allowed relative to league, the 2010 Yankees have performed better than the 2009 Yankees.
It’s not that simple though, at least not to me. To me when we talk about something being better than something else, you’re not just talking about what happened, you’re also talking about ability. So if we really want to see if the 2010 Yankees are better than the 2009 Yankees, we should look a bit deeper into the offense and pitching/defense to see if the runs scored/allowed are skewed by things that may or may not be repeatable. This could be due to different performance with men on base or fluctuations in BABIP on offense and defense, or defensive support being better or worse.
Through 134 games the 2010 Yankees have hit .270/.349/.439, and their offensive performance adds up to 704 context-neutral linear weights batting runs, compared to their 726 actual runs scored. So if you go by linear weights instead of actual runs scored, the 2010 offense has been more like 18% better than league average.
Contrast that with the 2009 Yankees who had hit .282/.360/.479 which was good for 793 context-neutral batting runs compared to their 773 actual runs scored. That would have made them about 23% than league average.
The difference there is probably due to a slightly better performance by the 2010 Yankees with runners in scoring position. They’ve also hit into 18 fewer double plays than their 2009 counterparts had through 134 games, although my linear weights formula does factor in double plays.
I don’t think I’d disagree that even if the 2010 Yankees are scoring runs at a higher rate relative to league than the 2009 Yankees did their offense isn’t quite as good, but the gap is certainly smaller than I’d intuitively thought it was.
The big argument for the 2010 Yankees being better than the 2009 Yankees lies in run prevention. Allowing runs at a rate of 91% of league average compared to 97% of league average is a pretty significant improvement. Again though, we probably need to look a little deeper into the pitching staffs and their performances to see if they’re actually pitching better.
| Year | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA |
| 2009 | 4.69 | 4.31 | 4.46 | 4.56 |
| 2010 | 4.13 | 3.86 | 4.36 | 4.51 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
CERA: Component ERA
Despite the big difference in RA and ERA between 2009 and 2010, looking at the peripheral stats shows that the pitching hasn’t necessarily been that much better than this year than it was last year. Here’s how these stats look relative to league average.
| Year | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA |
| 2009 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.02 |
| 2010 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.05 | 1.08 |
Interestingly, the component stats show that the 2010 Yankee pitchers haven’t even been as good as the 2009 pitchers were, at least if you trust FIP and CERA. While we shouldn’t necessarily assume all of the divergence between FIP and ERA is due to luck in BABIP, if component ERA says the same thing as FIP then it’s a bit more likely that there’s been some good fortune in the 2010 Yankees pitching performance, whether it be with BABIP against or in pitching better with runners on base, or in strand rate, or in a myriad of other things.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Yankee run prevention as a unit hasn’t been better, because we still need to consider defense.
| Year | ZR | DRS | UZR | AVG |
| 2009 | -1 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 2010 | -6 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
ZR: Run saved compared to average using Chris Dial’s methodology for converting standard zone rating
DRS: Defensive runs saved using John Dewan’s plus/minus methodology
UZR: Runs saved compared to average using Ultimate zone rating
I’ll mention the fact that defensive metrics are still a bit wonky, so even though these numbers say there’s not much difference between the two defenses that’s not necessarily true. Replacing Johnny Damon in LF with Brett Gardner and adding Curtis Granderson in CF has sure looked like an improvement to me, and I think Nick Swisher’s been better defensively this year too. The primary areas that have looked worse defensively have been catcher and shortstop, but I think that’s been mitigated elsewhere. I think this year’s defense is better than last year’s, although I don’t think the gap is that big.
With 28 games left in the year, a lot can change, and we can probably revisit this question. Should the Yankees make the postseason by some miracle, it’ll be interesting to see how the 25 man postseason roster compares to the 2009 Yankee postseason roster which was stronger than the overall 2009 team.
Right now, I’d still probably say the 2009 Yankees were better, but the gap is smaller than I thought.
Comments
Biggest difference to me is a healthy Andy Pettitte. Picking 2 starters you’d trust in a playoff game looks impossible right now, let alone 4.
Very nice analysis, as usual. ISTM that one could divide last year’s team into two pieces: with Arod and without ARod. The with ARod piece was considerably stronger than the 2010 team IMHO. I imagine that the stats would back this up.
ISTM that one could divide last year’s team into two pieces: with Arod and without ARod. The with ARod piece was considerably stronger than the 2010 team IMHO. I imagine that the stats would back this up.
True, good point. With Rodriguez and minus Wang the 2009 Yankees were much better than they were prior. I’ll have to go back and look at how I had them pegged entering the postseason but I think they were around a 110 win team in terms of projected true talent. I don’t think this year’s team will project that well.
OK, wasn’t gonna do this but then SG boned me by making a more interesting post than the previous.
REPOSTED:
Hey guys—
Sorry to hijack, but I did ask SG first.
My soccer film “Pelada” is premiering in New York on September 21. I’ll be there and would love to meet all RLYWers. Plus, it’s at a sports bar so we can booze it up.
Details and advance tickets available at the website:
www.pelada-movie.com
Thanks!
So FIP and CERA are, I believe, different ways of slicing the same stats. Isn’t there some way to compare their accuracy over time in terms of actual runs allowed, and in terms of predictive value?
For the lazy...
Right now, I’d still probably say the 2009 Yankees were better, but the gap is smaller than I thought.
Duuhhhhh. Count the rings!
I can’t tell from the post entry whether Cashman, Girardi, Eiland and or Long should be fired or given extensions? Which is it?
Great news fgas. I should be in the city and plan to attend. But make sure to self promote the days prior as a reminder.
I can’t tell from the post entry whether Cashman, Girardi, Eiland and or Long should be fired or given extensions? Which is it?
Really? I thought there was an evolving consensus that Long should be honored in Monument Park.
Lou Holtz is babbling like a moron on some kind of commercial on the USC game. He may have had a stroke. It’s awful.
Similar to the w/ and w/o A-Rod and Wang calculations, there’s also the matter of the implosion of 4/5ths of the Yanks’ starting rotation in the latter half ot this season. Our current run prevention capabilities are worse than our run prevention capabilities were earlier in the year (Vazquez and Burnett’s struggles; Hughes’ regression; Pettite’s injury) and an analysis of RA/G gives us credit for some run prevention capabilities we may no longer have.
Congrats, fgas. I have a dissertation deadline looming around then, but will try to make it to the screening (I’ve been soccer crazy since the WC), depending on how things look for me that week. Please do post a reminder as it gets closer to the date.
Really? I thought there was an evolving consensus that Long should be honored in Monument Park.
At that Eiland should join SG’s stats in the East River, Girardi can stay as long as the binder goes, and Cashman can only stay if he promises to only give Jeter a 2/20 contract. Or something.
Speaking of Jeter, if you like Joe Posnansi’s work, read this piece. If you don’t, at least read this quote from the article:
<blockquote>Funny, a lot of people talk about the money, but I think this is actually the easiest part of the process. The Yankees HAVE money, lots of it, and Jeter’s value as the Captain and as the consummate Yankee, makes this an easy fix. Seems to me they’ll pay him $100 million over four years, or whatever, and barely feel the squeeze.<blockquote>
I generally agree with this. Not that they will or should pay him 4/100, but that the money really won’t be the issue. The years will be the issue, and as Pos discusses later, position may also be an issue.
I recall you projecting the 2009 playoff Yankees as a 110-win team, yeah.
I hadn’t thought about it, but Wang may be the reason that the 2010 Yankees pitching has been better than the 2009 version. He did an incredible amount of damage in limited action.
They’ve also hit into 18 fewer double plays than their 2009 counterparts had through 134 games
Despite the efforts of that fat cow Jeter.
Congrats, fgas.
[11] “Our current run prevention capabilities are worse than our run prevention capabilities were earlier in the year (Vazquez and Burnett’s struggles; Hughes’ regression; Pettite’s injury) and an analysis of RA/G gives us credit for some run prevention capabilities we may no longer have. “
But the bullpen right now is much better than it was early in the year.
I think that’s a bigger factor for the postseason, since I expect Andy to be healthy, and Hughes to be better after they skip him a couple times.
Let’s go Yankees.
I expect Andy to be healthy, and Hughes to be better after they skip him a couple times
This is greatly to be hoped for. In fact, I think it makes or breaks the post-season.
He did an incredible amount of damage in limited action.
Apparently CMW is STILL on the DL for the Natinals. I was shocked to find out that he was still an active player, actually (Toyota (?) trivia question in yesterdays YES broadcast).
the bullpen right now is much better than it was early in the year
...but not as good as it was this time last year.
Jeter’s value as the Captain and as the consummate Yankee
Can he be named “Bench Captain” ?
Edit: Also, something, something, fat cow.
against left-handed pitching, intuitively last year’s team was much better. Matsui > Thames, Damon > Granderson. and then of course Jeter was better last year.
Kearns is a nice pickup in this respect, it helps minimize the harm. Still, if going against a playoff opponent w/good LHP, I’d much rather have last year’s offense.
pitching-wise, the bullpens in both seasons were good, especially in the 2nd halves. the starters - that to me, is TBD by the obvious questions:
1. Does Andy come back in mid-season form?
2. Does A.J. stop making me throw things at my TV?
3. Is Nova the real deal?
4. Does Hughes finish strong?
if 3 of those questions will be answered yes, then I’d say this year’s team is better in a short series, because you could have confidence in 4 starters capable of dominance this year.
Tough to make comparisons between the two teams. Both are very, very good teams, arguably great teams.
This is greatly to be hoped for. In fact, I think it makes or breaks the post-season.
Fun thing about this, Pettitte could not come back, Hughes could be mediocre, and Yankees could STILL outpitch their opponents in the playoffs. I would *expect* Javy or AJ to be even average in the post-season. But neither would I be shocked if they both pitched like Aces in October.
Our current run prevention capabilities are worse than our run prevention capabilities were earlier in the year (Vazquez and Burnett’s struggles; Hughes’ regression; Pettite’s injury) and an analysis of RA/G gives us credit for some run prevention capabilities we may no longer have.
Maybe, but the pen was pretty bad earlier in the year. Now with Park gone and with Robertson, Chamberlain, Logan and Wood all pitching well in front of the best closer in history(with Nova in long relief perhaps?)I think the bullpen’s better than last year’s, especially if Marte can come back and be effective as a lefty specialist.
The rotation is a concern, particularly now that they’re going to need to use a fourth starter instead of getting by with three, but the rotation was a concern last year too, we just don’t remember it now since they won it all.
Another issue when looking at the difference between 2009 and 2010 teams is A-Rod’s tremendous postseason. Since he’s unlikely to duplicate that, they need guys like Cano, Teix, and maybe Swisher to put up stats in the postseason that are comparable to their regular season numbers.
[23]“Another issue when looking at the difference between 2009 and 2010 teams is A-Rod’s tremendous postseason. Since he’s unlikely to duplicate that, they need guys like Cano, Teix, and maybe Swisher to put up stats in the postseason that are comparable to their regular season numbers.”
Well, they got absolutely nothing from Tex, Cano and Swisher last year, they were horrific.
If they three could post a combined 750 OPS, that upgrade would probably be more than enough to balance a more normal ARod line.
against left-handed pitching… Matsui > Thames
Huh?
vs LHP
Thames, 2010—.337/.404/.522/.926 (104 PA)
Matsui, 2009—.282/.358/.618/.976 (148 PA)
Marcus Thames has not made this team weaker against southpaws.
As a team, the Yankees have hit .272/.357/.450 against lefties compared to .286/.365/.480 last year, and the difference isn’t even that big when you adjust for 2010’s lower scoring environment.
Fangraphs WAR has Gardner (4.6) as the 5th most valuable OF in MLB. Those infront of him?
Hamilton
Andres Torres (yes, really)
Jose Bautista (WAR must be broken because he is easily the best player to ever don a MLB uniform)
Crawford
Holiday
Wonky list, eh?
Just want to remind everyone, day game today. One of the few times I prefer a day game, as I’ll get to listen to most of it on the radio, but will be camping tonight w/ little access to TV/radio/cell-phone coverage…
[26] If there are 5 in front of him, wouldn’t he be sixth? 
I, uh, well…damnit.
For what it’s worth, Defensive Efficiency has the Yankees 3rd in the bigs at .712 compared to 7th last year at .697. That would be an improvement of 2% form last year.
Position adjusted DE (adjusted for park) has the Yankees 13th in 2009 at -.39 and 4th this year at 1.40.
So I guess that supports the other stats in saying that this years squad is better but not necessarily hugely.
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