The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

April 2012 Log 5 Checkpoint

Back on April 8, I ran a log 5 expectation table for what the Yankees should have done in April.  Given the projections of their opponents and accounting for home field advantage I pegged them going around 13-10. 

Date Game xW xL cxW cxL aW aL caW caL delta
4/6 Yankees @ Rays 0.49 0.51 0.49 0.51 0 1 0 1 -0.49
4/7 Yankees @ Rays 0.49 0.51 0.97 1.03 0 1 0 2 -0.97
4/8 Yankees @ Rays 0.49 0.51 1.46 1.54 0 1 0 3 -1.46
4/9 Yankees @ Orioles 0.59 0.41 2.05 1.95 1 0 1 3 -1.05
4/10 Yankees @ Orioles 0.59 0.41 2.63 2.37 1 0 2 3 -0.63
4/11 Yankees @ Orioles 0.59 0.41 3.22 2.78 1 0 3 3 -0.22
4/13 Angels @ Yankees 0.58 0.42 3.80 3.20 1 0 4 3 0.20
4/14 Angels @ Yankees 0.58 0.42 4.38 3.62 0 1 4 4 -0.38
4/15 Angels @ Yankees 0.58 0.42 4.96 4.04 1 0 5 4 0.04
4/16 Twins @ Yankees 0.69 0.31 5.64 4.36 0 1 5 5 -0.64
4/17 Twins @ Yankees 0.69 0.31 6.33 4.67 1 0 6 5 -0.33
4/18 Twins @ Yankees 0.69 0.31 7.02 4.98 0 1 6 6 -1.02
4/19 Twins @ Yankees 0.69 0.31 7.71 5.29 1 0 7 6 -0.71
4/20 Yankees @ Red Sox 0.49 0.51 8.19 5.81 1 0 8 6 -0.19
4/21 Yankees @ Red Sox 0.49 0.51 8.68 6.32 1 0 9 6 0.32
4/22 Yankees @ Red Sox 0.00 0.00 8.68 6.32 0 0 9 6 0.32
4/23 Yankees @ Rangers 0.45 0.55 9.12 6.88 1 0 10 6 0.88
4/24 Yankees @ Rangers 0.45 0.55 9.57 7.43 0 1 10 7 0.43
4/25 Yankees @ Rangers 0.45 0.55 10.02 7.98 0 1 10 8 -0.02
4/27 Tigers @ Yankees 0.60 0.40 10.61 8.39 1 0 11 8 0.39
4/28 Tigers @ Yankees 0.60 0.40 11.21 8.79 0 1 11 9 -0.21
4/29 Tigers @ Yankees 0.60 0.40 11.81 9.19 1 0 12 9 0.19
4/30 Orioles @ Yankees 0.67 0.33 12.48 9.52 1 0 13 9 0.52

xW: Expected win probability for this game using Bill James’s log 5 methodology
xL:  Expected loss probability for this game
cxW: Cumulative expected win probabilities
cxL: Cumulative expected loss probabilities
aW: Actual wins
aL: Actual losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
caL: Cumulative actual losses
delta: caW minus cxW.  Positive means better than expected

The rain out on April 22 means the final expected April record was about 12.5 - 9.5, so the Yankees are about 0.5 wins ahead of pace.  Given the starting pitching they’ve gotten so far, that is amazing to me.

--Posted at 5:44 am by SG / 58 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

the Yankees are about 0.5 wins ahead of pace

Not to worry!  It’s Hughesday!

Hughes will only drop them back to 0.15 wins behind pace.  So that’s good.

Not only lack of starting pitching but lack of production from 3,4,5 and Gardner on the DL half the month.

But Swisher will be gone next year and Nunez will be playing RF.  I asked this in the game thread last night, but I have to ask again.  Why are the Yankees so in love with Nunez bat?

Why are the Yankees so in love with Nunez bat?

He hits the ball hard and seems to have pretty good contact and plate coverage skills.  Maybe they think he can develop into a utility guy that can play all over the field while hitting reasonably well.  A Mark Derosa type?  I’ve given up on the idea of his glove ever being good enough to start in the infield, but he could be a pretty valuable piece if he can hit around league average and play the infield and outfield a few times a week,.

Nun-E was simply splendid covering left field last night.  What y’all problem?

It’s the bullpen and Jeter.

Also, I’m excited to see DJ Mitchell make his debut tonight.

Swish has been nails too.  Too bad he’s unlikely to return.  I like his shy and retiring personality.

Also, I’m excited to see DJ Mitchell make his debut tonight.

Should I set my DVR for the second or third inning?

[3] The Yankees enjoy the additional entertainment he provides with his “fielding.”

Should I set my DVR for the second or third inning?

Teh eighth First.

I hear Girardi is looking for ‘length’ from Hughes tonight, so he may pitch into the third.

I hear Girardi is looking for ‘length’ from Hughes tonight, so he may pitch into the third.

Probably not a good idea to let him throw 145 pitches.

How many two strike counts can Phughes rack up in three innings?

He hits the ball hard and seems to have pretty good contact and plate coverage skills.  Maybe they think he can develop into a utility guy that can play all over the field while hitting reasonably well.  A Mark Derosa type?  I’ve given up on the idea of his glove ever being good enough to start in the infield, but he could be a pretty valuable piece if he can hit around league average and play the infield and outfield a few times a week,.

I’d love it if that was all it was but I’ve heard both the TV and Radio announcers hinting that the Yankees are hoping he could be Swisher’s replacement in RF next year.

[14] I had to watch the Orioles announcers and Jim Palmer was saying that Girardi told him they see Nunez as the future Yankees SS. Not sure how accurate that is, but I do find it hard to believe that Palmer would misquote Girardi.

How bad a shortstop would Nun-E be, really?  Would his range giveth back what his erratic throws hath taken away?  And is there no hope for improvement in his accuracy?

Is it not true that improved fielding consistency often comes with maturity?
I would imagine there’s a reasonable basis for hope there.

[16] I know I am in the super minority, but I still think he’s a viable MLB SS in the future. I think the errors are growing pains and mental mistakes that can be fixed.

[17] I wholeheartedly believe that while one is young only once, he may be immature forever.

[19]
A good deal of the conviction in this statement seems have leaked out through the word “may.”

[16] I know we don’t trust defensive metrics, but so far this year Nunez is a positive in UZR.  And he’s only made 2 errors so far this year, one throwing.  Yes he hasn’t played a lot but…

Really, he needs this year, and to play a lot this year.  His bat is above average for a SS.  I think if he develops a little more patience and power it may even be average (counting baserunning) for a corner OF.

I have a bad case of the Shins.  I have listened to their new CD eleventy billion times since Saturday.  Even at work but don’t tell massuh.

[22] You can get fired just for listening to terrible music?  Boom!

Nunez playing the OF (except in case of emergency) is just dumb.  He’ll never have the bat for that. 

I think it’s possible he could be a MLB-average or even slightly above-average SS.  Keep in mind how low the bar is (especially right now).

[24] I see Cito “Gaston” Culver seems to be raking of late.  What kind of upside does he have?  Is it too early to project what sort of mlb SS he is likely to be?

[23] Though we may be kin dred spirits sometimes I dred your posts.  BOOM.

[25] He’s in A-ball with a sub .700 OPS. No need to worry about his prospects at the moment.

[11, 12] I thought beating dead horses was a bannable offense?  Or is complaining about Hughes always allowed? 

I don’t know about you guys, but I’m hoping for a rainout.  Where’s Crash Davis when you need him?

[25] I see Cito “Gaston” Culver seems to be raking of late

He’s making up for all those AB’s where we went up to the plate with a wet beach towel instead of a bat.

[27, 29] Such sobering thoughts.  Which means I have to get drunker.

There’s absolutely no reason to make Nunez the RF next year for the simple reason that Jeter and Arod are still going to need a ton of time at DH.  Heck, by next year Arod might be an “almost full time” DH.

I foresee the team dumping Ja Rule Ibanez by mid-season.

And replacing him with Mel Hall.

Mel?  The doctor will see you now, Mr. Hall.

Am I the last person here who still expects Hughes to become a useful starter?

[34] Yes.

[32] No.  He gets just enough hits, and looks like he’s trying really hard on what should be routine plays that he muffs, that he will not be shed until August, by which time he will have cost the team 2 wins and no good replacement will be available.

I thought beating dead horses was a bannable offense?  Or is complaining about Hughes always allowed?

Lightning bolts are immune from banning.

[34] No.

“I hear Girardi is looking for ‘length’ from Hughes tonight”

So sorta like the people who end up here by googling NAKED PHIL HUGHES PICTURES?

[31] I wonder about moving ARod to RF?  Less physically demanding position (stay healthy), he has the skills (definitely the arm, still decent speed), and he still hits well enough to be an above average player in RF even if his defense is slightly below average.  RF for lots of reasons is a more logical move for ARod than DH.  I think he’d do it too. 

3B than they have some options.  Nunez maybe an average-ish 3B, Laird may still show something, or maybe even Ronnie Mustelier who was a Cuban signing that so far in the minors has raked at every level (SSS) and will likely be in AAA sometime this summer, if not earlier.  He’s played 3B, 2B, and corner OF, but IDK anything about his defense.

He gets just enough hits, and looks like he’s trying really hard on what should be routine plays that he muffs, that he will not be shed until August, by which time he will have cost the team 2 wins and no good replacement will be available.

IDK, just as a LH DH I don’t think he’s doing *too* poorly.  Not well, but the .220 BABIP is probably more SSS fluke than anything (LD% > 20, GB% > 45, no IFFB), he’s walking around a league-average rate, and not striking out at all, and he’s got a .207 ISO.  So if the BABIP gets up just to last year’s ~.270, his wRC+ would climb up to maybe 105-110 range, or averagish for a DH.  The problem is keeping him out of the field, which is where Gardner and Swisher getting healthy come into play.

The problem is that Ja Rule is a Martian without a green card.

[39] “Less physically demanding position”

Why is this?  I’d think RF involves more running, and more running into walls.  Or CFs.  And more Matsui/Gardner-style injuries.  Maybe less diving, but not a ton, esp. if one cuts down on practice sessions.

[42] No bunts to charge. No hard liners to snag, reaction time isn’t so critical, no base to worry about tripping over on popups, nobody sliding into you with spikes.

He’s in A-ball with a sub .700 OPS.

He’s slotting in nicely for 1B.

Am I the last person here who still expects Hughes to become a useful starter?

It’s that “expects” word. It could happen. It may even still be likely, as a #5 innings eater. The likelihood he is a #2 or #3 is fading in the rear view mirror.

Would I bet my house against it ? No. Would I bet yours ? In a heartbeat.

Third requires more lateral movement that stresses the hips and knees.  No position is free of all physical stresses/dangers, but it might be better to risk running into a wall once in a while than going through daily wear and tear on the hips and knees—which has to affect his hitting.

“a #5 innings eater”

As long as you don’t expect him to eat more than three innings at a time.

I run into walls all the time, due to the repression of memories into the unconscious.

He’s more of an inning taster. He sort of samples them, letting the taste linger a bit, and then spits them back into a bucket.

IMO, Hughes will either figure out how to pitch 5+ innings as a #3 or better or never figure it out at all. He seems to be an all or nothing guy. I hope he does well tonight and this is the launching point for a solid year, but there’s a part of me hoping for him to bomb so the Yankees can just get it over with and move him to the pen.

i gave up on Hughes about 3 starts ago.

I hope he does well tonight and this is the launching point for a solid year

I’m hoping for a limousine to pull up with a lonely 1995 Jennifer Anniston in it, looking for an older chubby guy to come out and play.

Question about the new playoff format: are teams from the same division still barred from playing one another in the best of 5 round?

[49] You mean the Jennifer Aniston of the film classic, Leprechaun?  She’s mine!

[50] No

I’d think RF involves… more running into walls.

You remember Mr. Abreu, right Alex?  He’ll be teaching you how to play right field.

Am I the last person here who still expects Hughes to become a useful starter?

I’m very pessimistic he’ll ever make it in the Yankee rotation.  I could see him moving to the NL and becoming useful, though.  He’d make a fine #2 behind A.J. Burnett in the Pirates rotation, for example.

RE:  Nunez,

I think it’s interesting given the sabermetric bent of this website how much concern there is about his defense, where his main problem is errors as opposed to range.  Aren’t we not supposed to care so much about errors?

Also with Nunez, I think it’s important to remember the far lower standards for SS’s in the post-PED, post-big-three era.  If he can just cut down on the errors, Nunez can probably be something of a Brett Gardner type plus at the SS position—strictly league average hitter with plus speed and plus range/arm.  And it’s also important to remember that the Yankees want to talk him up to both build his confidence and his trade value.

Nunez seems to be less jumpy at 3B than short.

Talking heads were saying something during the game about talking to Nuney about playing LF and he was saying that fly balls are easy for him, but hard hit grounders and liners were terrifying.

Not exactly infielder mentality.

I may have imagined all of the above as I was into the Irish Whiskey pretty hard.

[40] I like the idea of Arod in RF, but isn’t he deathly afraid of pop ups? Jeter to RF was always my dream.  Arod in RF at home and DH on the road might be interesting.

Aren’t we not supposed to care so much about errors?

I believe errors (relative to average) count for slighly more (negative) than a missed play.  So if a ball is hit up the middle that an average SS would get to and Jeter doesn’t, it’s -.8 runs.  If Nunez gets to that ball and throws it away, it’s -1 run.  All number for illustration of course (and simplified since UZR is much more complex). 

So if Nunez’s range allows him to get to 10 more balls than the average SS, but he also commits 20 more errors, he’s (10 *. 8) + (-20 * 1) = -12 runs worse than an average SS.  Of course, we also believe that - especially throwing errors - a lot of that is fixable, whereas it is very difficult to get more range.  So if we can cut Nunez’s errors in half (over average), it still looks ugly (that’s still like 25 errors over a season), but now he’s -2 at SS.  Or basically, average.

[55]  IDK, he’s looked bad on a few but that was also next to Jeter.  Both comparatively (Jeter is very good on popups) and literally (when Jeter and ARod both had a chance at a popup, ARod looks skittish).  Also, I believe his problem was more going back on popups.  With the short porch in RF, plus ARod I think is still good at charging forward, he can probably play a deep RF.  So that most of the balls he’s going back on would be in the seats anyway.  His arm would allow him to play deep and still cut runners off at home on singles, I think.  Plus, if you still have Gardner in LF, you can shade Granderson over to RF to help.

Jeter’s not going to RF, good or bad.  He’s playing well enough now that he can probably still state that he’s the SS, even if the Yankees would seriously consider moving him.  Other than Nunez, they don’t have any SS in the system, and SS are hard to find on the market.  They do have a few guys who *may* be able to play 3rd in the majors, and probably not as difficult to find another 3B somewhere.  Maybe easier than finding a RF at least…

I was looking at the standings last night and really, I was pretty pleased (except for the Red Sox’s recent hot streak). The Yankees have had a tough April schedule and yet they’re just a game and a half out of first place and they are in the second wild card spot.

They look like they’ll be in good shape to run off a bunch of wins when the schedule gets easier (when THEY get a crack at Seattle, Oakland, etc.).

That said, I’d really like to see the starting pitching turn around because as it currently stands, they look like yet another season where the starting pitching is good enough to do well in the regular season but not in the postseason.

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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