“CAIRO says .263/.339/.433”

Wow! And that’s with the built-in Yankee boost!

On the optimistic side, I think it’s very likely that ARod outhits his projection if he plays.

Wow! And that’s with the built-in Yankee boost!

I decided to apply the Jeter discount to Rodriguez to make up for five straight years of over-projecting him.

On the optimistic side, I think it’s very likely that ARod outhits his projection if he plays.

I think so too.  I don’t think he was healthy for a large part of last year, especially not when he came back from the hand injury.

Thanks, SG.

I think it’ll be intersting to see what he does when gets back, hopefully for about half of a season. If it’s close to these numbers, that’d be pretty cool.

What is so funny in retrospect is how A-Rod looked obviously hurt in the playoffs based on how he couldn’t drive ANYthing but then the Yankees made a big deal to say that no, he was healthy.

I forget, is there a reason it took so long to get him in for surgery?

Bernie only got 3.3% of the HOF vote. Not saying he deserves it, but I thought it’d be higher. He had an incredible prime, played CF, and won a bunch of rings.

[6] Prehab? Additional opinions? Surgeon had a busy schedule?

What’s up with Piazza not getting in?

[7] He played on the same team as ARod for a few years, which means he may have seen steriods once.  That’s enough to disqualify him for many voters.

[9] the HOF voting system is hilariously stupid?

I mean someone voted for Sele, but Bonds, Clemens, Piazza and Biggio did not make the cut.

Maybe I misunderstood, but I thought j’s questions was…

Assume he hit his baseline projection in 2009, what would his revised 2010 projection look like?  Then assuming he hit his baseline of that revised 2010 projection, what would his revised 2011 projection look like?...what would his revised 2013 projection look like?

[0] I actually ready j’s initial question a little differently.  More like, take the 2008 CAIRO (18 runs better than he actually did), and assume he actually did that in 2008.  Now generate a 2009 CAIRO, and assume he did that, etc.  Basically, assume that the ONLY reason he did worse than expected was b/c of injuries - specifically the hip, but also if he hadn’t missed time for broken hand, etc. 

Now, after doing all of THAT…generate a 2013 CAIRO, and put in a guestimat of playing time.  What would that ARod be worth?  And now that’s our dream number.  That of course is a lot more work, so I’d be curious, but certainly couldn’t expect that to be done.  Unless you’re bored.

EDIT: or, what [12] says

[6] Yes, the doctors were waiting for the inflammation in A-Rod’s sexual organ to subside.

[6] Prehab.  The surgeon claimed that if ARod built up enough strength in the area/lowered the swelling enough, it could take as much as 6 months off the rehab.  Or basically, wait a month for surgery, potentially be back in July.  Do it immediately, potentially be back in 2014.

[12, 13] Yes, this is correct. I thought this is what SG did?

If Rodriguez had hit his projections over each of the last four seasons and if we give those seasons a 4/3/2/1 weight by recency here’s how Rodriguez would project in 2013 (minus any other regression or aging).

Is this not him hitting 50% in 2008, then 50% in 2009 (that 50% being 50% of his 2009 projection given that he hit 50% in 2008), and so forth..?

[16] - No.  I believe the 2010 projections SG used was his actual 2010 projection which would have a 40% weight to the 2009 season in which A-Rod was recovering and a 30% weight to the 2008 season in which you are assuming he is somewhat injured.  So saying he would hit his baseline of that projection is not the same as saying what would his 2010 baseline be if he never gotten injured.

Unless of course I didn’t understand [0] in which case my bad.

Is this not him hitting 50% in 2008, then 50% in 2009 (that 50% being 50% of his 2009 projection given that he hit 50% in 2008), and so forth..?

Not quite, that’s why I added this note.

One thing to consider is that if his performance has been affected by his hip to the point where it’s manifesting itself in his actual performance, that is also dragging down his projection in each subsequent season.  So in theory he’d project even better than any of those lines.

If he hit his baseline projection in 2009, then his 2010 projection should be higher than it was.  Then if he hits that baseline projection, it makes his 2011 projection higher than it was, etc.,

But I’m too lazy to re-run full CAIROs for Rodriguez right now and don’t have the means to run PECOTA or ZiPS.

You can take the last table as a lower bound for the projection based off projections, but the problem with projecting only from 2008 and earlier is the same as the problem with 10 year contracts: the further into the future you go, the bigger the error bars get.

Isn’t the lazyeasy thing to do to say he was worth x WAR in 2009 or whenever and take off 0.5/y (or whatever the appropriate factor is) for aging?

[20] Yes.  We just want SG to do a bunch of cool stuff for us.

Isn’t the lazyeasy thing to do to say he was worth x WAR in 2009 or whenever and take off 0.5/y (or whatever the appropriate factor is) for aging?

You have to make the distinction between observed WAR in 2009 or whenever and true talent.  Say you had a player who was worth 5 WAR in 2007, 5 WAR in 2008 and 9 WAR in 2009.  You don’t project him as 8.5 WAR in 2010, you’d project him as something like 6.5-7.5 probably.

But generally, for a long-term projection, estimated WAR in year n should be reasonably close to projected WAR in year n-1 minus 0.5 - 0.7 depending on age.

[22] By “was worth x WAR in 2009 or whenever” I meant you to mindread “his estimated true talent in year y”.

[23] I guess we could just take his 2008 CAIRO and go down then.  So…

2008: 127
2009: 122
2010: 116
2011: 110
2012: 103
2013: 96 (projected)

Total: 578 (through 2012)

So a rather simplistic version says he would have produced 159 runs - 16 wins - more over the past 5 years.  Or ~37 wins vs ~21 wins (fWAR).  Would actually have been near the area where his contract would be justified, actually.  Interestingly though, would only be projecting for about 8 more runs in 2013 than he is now.