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Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Alex Rodriguez Projections vs. Actuals 2008-2012

In the previous post, j wondered:

I’m just wondering what we would have projected to had he not gotten the hip injruy - which I figured would be him hitting his 50% each year since 2008 or so, and it’d probably be close to what he did in 2009.

One way to answer this question would be to look at how Rodriguez has projected since 2008 compared to how he actually ended up doing.  I have projections for four systems (Cairo, Marcel, Pecota and ZiPS) going back to 2008, and here’s what they say compared to his actual performance.

Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2008 cairo 689 581 174 27 1 43 19 4 90 128 14 .299 .403 .570 127
2008 marcel 621 525 157 26 1 36 17 4 79 118 12 .299 .399 .558 111
2008 pecota 684 572 169 34 2 36 23 4 94 130 11 .294 .401 .550 123
2008 zips 698 590 180 30 1 44 16 3 93 132 15 .305 .413 .583 132
2008 Actual 594 510 154 33 0 35 18 3 65 117 14 .302 .392 .573 109
Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2009 cairo 654 554 164 30 1 37 17 4 82 126 14 .296 .398 .553 116
2009 marcel 568 484 140 26 1 32 15 3 68 110 7 .289 .379 .545 97
2009 pecota 624 537 151 29 1 30 18 4 72 124 9 .282 .373 .508 99
2009 zips 641 548 160 30 0 37 15 17 78 124 15 .292 .395 .549 108
2009 Actual 535 444 127 17 1 30 14 2 80 97 8 .286 .402 .532 93
Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2010 cairo 605 509 144 23 1 37 18 3 79 114 12 .282 .389 .546 106
2010 marcel 527 447 128 22 1 31 15 3 66 100 10 .286 .387 .548 92
2010 pecota 541 465 134 20 1 34 10 5 64 94 12 .288 .388 .555 93
2010 zips 558 477 134 25 1 30 15 3 69 106 12 .281 .385 .526 94
2010 Actual 595 522 141 29 2 30 4 3 59 98 3 .270 .341 .506 86
Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2011 cairo 594 510 143 27 1 32 11 3 69 111 7 .280 .370 .525 96
2011 marcel 551 479 129 24 1 26 10 3 60 103 6 .269 .354 .486 81
2011 pecota 621 533 145 25 1 34 13 4 75 116 7 .272 .370 .514 98
2011 zips 537 459 127 23 1 30 10 3 63 100 6 .277 .369 .527 86
2011 Actual 428 373 103 21 0 16 4 1 47 80 5 .276 .362 .461 61
Year Projection   PA   AB   H   2B   3B   HR   SB   CS   BB   SO   HBP   AVG   OBP   SLG BR
2012 cairo 459 398 109 21 1 19 6 2 53 82 5 .273 .364 .474 67
2012 marcel 474 412 110 21 1 20 7 2 51 86 5 .267 .350 .468 66
2012 pecota 572 499 137 24 1 30 9 2 67 112 6 .275 .368 .507 89
2012 zips 466 405 107 20 1 21 7 2 51 89 5 .264 .350 .474 66
2012 Actual 529 463 126 17 1 18 13 1 51 116 10 .272 .353 .430 70

Season by season doesn’t necessarily tell us as much as the totals would, so here are those.

Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2008-2012 cairo 3001 2552 734 128 5 168 71 16 373 561 52 .288 .386 .539 511
2008-2012 marcel 2741 2347 664 119 5 145 64 15 324 517 40 .283 .375 .523 447
2008-2012 pecota 3042 2606 736 132 6 164 73 19 372 576 45 .282 .379 .526 502
2008-2012 zips 2900 2479 708 128 4 162 63 28 354 551 53 .286 .385 .537 486
2008-2012 Actual 2681 2312 651 117 4 129 53 10 302 508 40 .282 .370 .503 419

I’d like to thank A-Rod for making CAIRO look terrible, although ZiPS essentially projected the same numbers aside from SB/CS.  But really, this chart shows how much worse Rodriguez has been than expected.  In terms of BR (linear weights batting runs) he’s been worth anywhere from 26 to 92 fewer runs than expected.

If Rodriguez had hit his projections over each of the last four seasons and if we give those seasons a 4/3/2/1 weight by recency here’s how Rodriguez would project in 2013 (minus any other regression or aging).

Year Projection   PA  AB   H  2B   3B  HR   SB  CS   BB  SO   HBP  AVG   OBP  SLG BR
2013 cairo 548 469 132 24 1 28 11 3 66 102 8 .281 .375 .517 88
2013 marcel 517 446 122 23 1 25 10 3 58 96 7 .274 .362 .499 79
2013 pecota 586 506 140 24 1 32 11 3 69 111 8 .277 .371 .518 94
2013 zips 523 450 124 23 1 27 10 4 61 99 8 .275 .368 .511 82

One thing to consider is that if his performance has been affected by his hip to the point where it’s manifesting itself in his actual performance, that is also dragging down his projection in each subsequent season.  So in theory he’d project even better than any of those lines.

I don’t have all the projections for 2013 yet, but CAIRO says .263/.339/.433 and my unofficial version of Marcel says .265/.341/.451.

We really have no idea if the hip injury is to blame for Rodriguez’s steeper than expected decline in his rate of performance.  It certainly seems like a major reason, but it’s not the only possible explanation.  So while there’s a chance that correcting this issue can help him be more productive going forward, I wouldn’t count on it.

But who knows?

--Posted at 1:43 pm by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

“CAIRO says .263/.339/.433”

Wow! And that’s with the built-in Yankee boost!

On the optimistic side, I think it’s very likely that ARod outhits his projection if he plays.

Wow! And that’s with the built-in Yankee boost!

I decided to apply the Jeter discount to Rodriguez to make up for five straight years of over-projecting him.

On the optimistic side, I think it’s very likely that ARod outhits his projection if he plays.

I think so too.  I don’t think he was healthy for a large part of last year, especially not when he came back from the hand injury.

Thanks, SG.

I think it’ll be intersting to see what he does when gets back, hopefully for about half of a season. If it’s close to these numbers, that’d be pretty cool.

What is so funny in retrospect is how A-Rod looked obviously hurt in the playoffs based on how he couldn’t drive ANYthing but then the Yankees made a big deal to say that no, he was healthy.

I forget, is there a reason it took so long to get him in for surgery?

Bernie only got 3.3% of the HOF vote. Not saying he deserves it, but I thought it’d be higher. He had an incredible prime, played CF, and won a bunch of rings.

[6] Prehab? Additional opinions? Surgeon had a busy schedule?

What’s up with Piazza not getting in?

[7] He played on the same team as ARod for a few years, which means he may have seen steriods once.  That’s enough to disqualify him for many voters.

[9] the HOF voting system is hilariously stupid?

I mean someone voted for Sele, but Bonds, Clemens, Piazza and Biggio did not make the cut.

Maybe I misunderstood, but I thought j’s questions was…

Assume he hit his baseline projection in 2009, what would his revised 2010 projection look like?  Then assuming he hit his baseline of that revised 2010 projection, what would his revised 2011 projection look like?...what would his revised 2013 projection look like?

[0] I actually ready j’s initial question a little differently.  More like, take the 2008 CAIRO (18 runs better than he actually did), and assume he actually did that in 2008.  Now generate a 2009 CAIRO, and assume he did that, etc.  Basically, assume that the ONLY reason he did worse than expected was b/c of injuries - specifically the hip, but also if he hadn’t missed time for broken hand, etc. 

Now, after doing all of THAT…generate a 2013 CAIRO, and put in a guestimat of playing time.  What would that ARod be worth?  And now that’s our dream number.  That of course is a lot more work, so I’d be curious, but certainly couldn’t expect that to be done.  Unless you’re bored.

EDIT: or, what [12] says

[6] Yes, the doctors were waiting for the inflammation in A-Rod’s sexual organ to subside.

[6] Prehab.  The surgeon claimed that if ARod built up enough strength in the area/lowered the swelling enough, it could take as much as 6 months off the rehab.  Or basically, wait a month for surgery, potentially be back in July.  Do it immediately, potentially be back in 2014.

[12, 13] Yes, this is correct. I thought this is what SG did?

If Rodriguez had hit his projections over each of the last four seasons and if we give those seasons a 4/3/2/1 weight by recency here’s how Rodriguez would project in 2013 (minus any other regression or aging).

Is this not him hitting 50% in 2008, then 50% in 2009 (that 50% being 50% of his 2009 projection given that he hit 50% in 2008), and so forth..?

[16] - No.  I believe the 2010 projections SG used was his actual 2010 projection which would have a 40% weight to the 2009 season in which A-Rod was recovering and a 30% weight to the 2008 season in which you are assuming he is somewhat injured.  So saying he would hit his baseline of that projection is not the same as saying what would his 2010 baseline be if he never gotten injured.

Unless of course I didn’t understand [0] in which case my bad.

Is this not him hitting 50% in 2008, then 50% in 2009 (that 50% being 50% of his 2009 projection given that he hit 50% in 2008), and so forth..?

Not quite, that’s why I added this note.

One thing to consider is that if his performance has been affected by his hip to the point where it’s manifesting itself in his actual performance, that is also dragging down his projection in each subsequent season.  So in theory he’d project even better than any of those lines.

If he hit his baseline projection in 2009, then his 2010 projection should be higher than it was.  Then if he hits that baseline projection, it makes his 2011 projection higher than it was, etc.,

But I’m too lazy to re-run full CAIROs for Rodriguez right now and don’t have the means to run PECOTA or ZiPS.

You can take the last table as a lower bound for the projection based off projections, but the problem with projecting only from 2008 and earlier is the same as the problem with 10 year contracts: the further into the future you go, the bigger the error bars get.

Isn’t the lazyeasy thing to do to say he was worth x WAR in 2009 or whenever and take off 0.5/y (or whatever the appropriate factor is) for aging?

[20] Yes.  We just want SG to do a bunch of cool stuff for us.

Isn’t the lazyeasy thing to do to say he was worth x WAR in 2009 or whenever and take off 0.5/y (or whatever the appropriate factor is) for aging?

You have to make the distinction between observed WAR in 2009 or whenever and true talent.  Say you had a player who was worth 5 WAR in 2007, 5 WAR in 2008 and 9 WAR in 2009.  You don’t project him as 8.5 WAR in 2010, you’d project him as something like 6.5-7.5 probably.

But generally, for a long-term projection, estimated WAR in year n should be reasonably close to projected WAR in year n-1 minus 0.5 - 0.7 depending on age.

[22] By “was worth x WAR in 2009 or whenever” I meant you to mindread “his estimated true talent in year y”.

[23] I guess we could just take his 2008 CAIRO and go down then.  So…

2008: 127
2009: 122
2010: 116
2011: 110
2012: 103
2013: 96 (projected)

Total: 578 (through 2012)

So a rather simplistic version says he would have produced 159 runs - 16 wins - more over the past 5 years.  Or ~37 wins vs ~21 wins (fWAR).  Would actually have been near the area where his contract would be justified, actually.  Interestingly though, would only be projecting for about 8 more runs in 2013 than he is now.

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